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Saturday, July 1, 2017

XIV - Orange Channel Support Breached - Large Plunge Coming!

XIV breached orange channel support last week.  The decline initiated with a flashcrash as XIV exhausted near long term resistance.  The drop was signaled in advance by weakening performance. 

A large plunge to test the lower fork line, and turquoise channel support is likely to occur next as shown on the chart below.

Daily Chart
 
Posted by at

42 comments:

  1. UnknownJuly 3, 2017 at 7:34 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCJuly 4, 2017 at 9:17 AM

      Another chart will be posted shortly with timing and a detailed map of the decline. It'll show where to expect the drops and bounces on the way down.

      Delete
    2. rose2797July 4, 2017 at 10:35 AM

      Thanks that will be really nice

      Delete
  2. rose2797July 3, 2017 at 4:19 PM

    Sc uvxy to hit 8 or 9. Will spx go to 2450 again

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCJuly 4, 2017 at 9:22 AM

      This week being a holiday week is quiet. SPX and XIV both forming highs this week. Nice timing to short.

      Delete
  3. zzznnnJuly 4, 2017 at 7:10 AM

    Hi SC,
    What's ur opinion about cryptocurrencies? Seems that they are in a big bull run.
    To me seems that Bitcoin is in an triangle before going up.
    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCJuly 7, 2017 at 6:18 PM

      I could see bitcoin coming down a little more this summer, but I think up for 6 to 8 months looks possible.

      I don't see them as being a safe haven at all, and doubt there is any real future for them.

      It's the opposite. Excess liquidity is flowing to them but that'll come to an end next year.

      Delete
  4. louis lombardiJuly 6, 2017 at 7:43 PM

    Sc hope all is well is your target still 13 your thoughts and thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCJuly 7, 2017 at 5:38 AM

      Yes, UVXY $13. XIV $70 to $72.

      Delete
    2. PayDayJuly 10, 2017 at 10:03 AM

      Sc, i thought your target for XIV was $60?

      Delete
    3. SCJuly 10, 2017 at 11:12 AM

      It is still the target. Just expect a bounce around $70.

      Delete
    4. ScottJuly 10, 2017 at 1:03 PM

      we are running out of time for a pop in UVXY. VIX futures will roll over again next week. If we don't get a pop in the VIX this week, UVXY is likely to see 8.40 or lower next week.

      Delete
    5. louis lombardiJuly 11, 2017 at 1:00 PM

      thats why you have to trade it bought @9.75 sold at 10.47 today and i will buy back tomorrow 2 weeks the move in my opinion will be massive in uvxy

      Delete
    6. gerkomJuly 12, 2017 at 6:38 AM

      Exactly Louis. In, then out.

      If I can get a .50 to .75 run each tradee and do that a few times a month that's all I am looking for.

      It's nice to have the massive moves but in the meantime it all adds up.

      Delete
    7. PayDayJuly 12, 2017 at 9:13 AM

      Louis, did you reenter uvxy?

      What is your definition of "massive" move in uvxy? $16-18?

      Delete
    8. louis lombardiJuly 12, 2017 at 2:13 PM

      9.20 after split im looking for 52

      Delete
  5. SCJuly 7, 2017 at 6:02 AM

    SPX 2,385.

    ReplyDelete
  6. rotrotJuly 8, 2017 at 11:22 AM

    Money is rushing into ‘the most dangerous trade in the world’
    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/07/money-is-rushing-into-the-most-dangerous-trade-in-the-world.html

    ReplyDelete
  7. Be CarefulJuly 10, 2017 at 11:14 AM

    Probably new S&P highs this week..and more rally. 2400 holds firmly.

    ReplyDelete
  8. louis lombardiJuly 11, 2017 at 10:04 AM

    looks like down hard tommorow spx we will see

    ReplyDelete
  9. ScottJuly 11, 2017 at 11:00 AM

    Well I think that may have been the pop in UVXY you were looking for. Hope everyone got out.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Be CarefulJuly 11, 2017 at 2:28 PM

    S&P 2460 soon.

    ReplyDelete
  11. SCJuly 12, 2017 at 5:09 AM

    The 50 dma for SPX looks like it is about to bust. SPX has been trending down for almost a month now. The selloff is just in the beginning stage.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Be CarefulJuly 12, 2017 at 5:48 AM

    New S&P highs in 24-48 hours.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Be CarefulJuly 12, 2017 at 5:51 AM

    UVXY 8.76, then much lower. Sideways flag correction totally complete in S&P.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. louis lombardiJuly 12, 2017 at 2:14 PM

      thats possibly however after split it will probally go to 52

      Delete
  14. louis lombardiJuly 12, 2017 at 8:04 AM

    Long uvxy 9.20

    ReplyDelete
  15. louis lombardiJuly 12, 2017 at 8:47 AM

    down hard into friday possible

    ReplyDelete
  16. louis lombardiJuly 12, 2017 at 2:04 PM

    2385 by july 24 25

    ReplyDelete
  17. louis lombardiJuly 13, 2017 at 6:07 AM

    sc wonder if it would be smart to go into vxx instead of uvxy
    your thoughts split concerns last set up like this we saw 10 percent volatility erosion

    ReplyDelete
  18. louis lombardiJuly 13, 2017 at 8:49 AM

    dumped uvxy at 9.10

    ReplyDelete
  19. PayDayJuly 13, 2017 at 9:52 AM

    XIV $100 or $60? Which comes first?

    Sc, any updates on gold?

    ReplyDelete
  20. louis lombardiJuly 13, 2017 at 3:00 PM

    Long 25000 vxx 12.22

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. PayDayJuly 14, 2017 at 1:44 PM

      Louis you have an exit target for VXX?

      Still waiting for my $100 XIV but very very close....

      Delete
    2. louis lombardiJuly 14, 2017 at 7:38 PM

      i believe july 24 to 26 that uvxy will be 12 or after split
      48 maybe higher not sure and and vxx to move up with it maybe 15 or so we will see im not sure if next drop will break 2400

      Delete
  21. louis lombardiJuly 14, 2017 at 10:50 AM

    long vxx at 12

    ReplyDelete
  22. PayDayJuly 14, 2017 at 1:43 PM

    SPX:VIX RATIO = 255

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$VIX&p=M&st=1989-03-16&en=%28today%29&id=p56596247166&a=296187083&r=1363776061098&cmd=print

    Ideal time to short XIV...

    ReplyDelete
  23. rose2797July 14, 2017 at 5:58 PM

    SC can u pl give update

    ReplyDelete
  24. SCJuly 16, 2017 at 5:04 PM

    XIV update is posted!

    ReplyDelete

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