Expect to see an overthrow of horizontal resistance, and a washout low.
60min Chart
Before:
May 1, 2017 analysis:
"SPX has spiked up to test 2,400 as anticipated.
However, the spike has been too much and too fast. The gap is likely to fill next as shown on the chart.
The roller coaster to continue..."
60min Chart
Great work! Are you confident on the pullback before overthrow to upside?
ReplyDeleteYes, SPX should pullback. Horizontal resistance is still valid.
DeleteAlso, where was the SPX chart on May 1 blog post? I think it was just XIV that you had forecasted, not the chart above? Did I miss it?
ReplyDeletehttp://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2017/05/xiv-white-trendline-backtest-complete_1.html
You're right the SPX chart was posted April 26th.
DeleteSC, are you going to buy UVXY up here? If I've been reading you correctly, you're going to sit this drop out.
ReplyDeleteThank you
I'll look at UVXY again soon. Just waiting for now.
DeleteUvxy looks like it's could tag 1090 that's just my opinion that is the bottom of the trend line that I'm reading we will see as each turn day gets closer
ReplyDeleteXiv mving to fill the gap at 80
ReplyDeletesc we are about at the bottom pf the trendline on uvxy
ReplyDeleteyour thoughts at 10.86
XIV very strong here. Doesn't seem like $66 anytime soon. Waiting patiently for re-entry.
ReplyDeleteSC, are we getting very close to SPX pullback? What do you see the entry point for UVXY?
ReplyDeleteTurn date due tomorrow May 26th. Waiting for now but may be interested in UVXY again soon.
Deleteafter tomorrow, is June 2 your next turn date?
DeleteYes, June 2nd.
DeleteS&P 2439 soon actually. Jim Paulsen said 2600 this year. Robert Schiller and Jeremy Grantham said this thing could go very high. Echoes of Bitcoin..
ReplyDeleteVix 8.6, is it possible in next 4 weeks...perhaps on a future S&P squeeze.
ReplyDeleteAnybody take a position in uvxy
ReplyDelete2280s possible next week. XIV washout on deck
ReplyDeleteUVXY looks interesting here.
ReplyDeleteWaiting for XIV to fill gap at 80
It does look interesting though I think this thing could tag 10 69 that's why I have my down from line going from on a 60-minute 10-week chart
DeleteXIV gap filled.
DeleteUVXY 10.69 hit (congrats Louis!)
Good time to enter UVXY? Target 16-18
my new downtrend line comes to 10.47 on uvxy
DeleteSC, are we now at the higher high with a drop to 2360 next?
ReplyDeleteSPX has reached the target of 2,415, but let's wait and see. Still maybe a little higher.
DeleteSC what would be a good buy on uvxy
ReplyDeleteYour thoughts
Could be lower than 2280s on deck maybe even 2200 if this is the real flush lower...
ReplyDeletethank u payday we need the nod from the godfather sc
ReplyDeleteobviously i agree with price but just waitin for sc to give us the nod lol
my new down trend line comes to 10.47
ReplyDeleteAgreed Louis! Just waiting for all clear to enter UVXY &/or XIV though this latest bounce seems long in the tooth!
ReplyDeleteSPX:VIX RATIO...... bubble anyone?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$VIX&p=M&st=1989-03-16&en=%28today%29&id=p56596247166&a=296187083&r=1363776061098&cmd=print
Thanks. Interesting chart
DeleteIf you do that chart in logarithmic, ratio can spike up to 292.30
DeleteHi PayDay, if you do the chart in logarithmic scale, ratio highs can extend to 292.30.
DeleteSC, where do you see the SPX topping before a pullback?
ReplyDeleteSPX is near a peak in my opinion.
DeleteThe markets won't make any more highs once SOX index hits 1175. That should be it for some time. But it will get to that number.
ReplyDeleteSc what's your take on Buying UVXY at $10.50
ReplyDeleteThe future path should be up to S&P 2475, then down to 2290.
ReplyDeleteBe Careful May 25, 2017 at 6:30 AM
ReplyDeleteS&P 2439 soon actually. Jim Paulsen said 2600 this year. Robert Schiller and Jeremy Grantham said this thing could go very high. Echoes of Bitcoin..
June 2. Supposed to be turn day....
ReplyDeleteHaving my doubts about XIV $66 anytime soon. SPX looks like its on its way to 2500 = XIV $90
SC, what turn dates you see next in the cycles? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteJune 2nd was a turn date and June 9th or June 12th is the next.
DeleteSPX peaking within a week...
Sc can pl update blog with spx and gold
ReplyDeleteYes, an update would be nice.
ReplyDeleteUpdate coming soon. Gold hasn't done much in the last couple years. It's up in 2017 only because it fell at the end of 2016.
ReplyDeleteCharts coming soon! XIV is not in agreement with this rally in SPX.
ReplyDeleteNotice that unlike SPX, XIV has not made a higher high. We haven't seen this warning all year. It's a warning for June. This move in SPX will collapse. Possibly a little higher over the next week but we will see 2,360 to 2,380 SPX.
Thanks, SC. What is your view on timing? High this week (week of June 5), low following week (week of June 12)?
DeleteHigh for SPX this week, drop the following week and expecting a slide down into the end of the month. 2,380 SPX.
DeleteI'm sure XIV will see the token higher high though. So wait for that to look at UVXY.
ReplyDeleteI have a possible 9.50 on uvxy
DeleteYour thoughts
$10 looks interesting for a pop.
DeleteHi SC, approx how far would any pop go in UVXY? thanks
DeleteJust a decent pop $11 or $12.
Deletethe pop in uvxy yesterday was that the pop you were talking about up to 11.17
DeleteYes, the target for the pop has been reached.
DeleteThis move in xiv is not as strong as last move
ReplyDeleteExactly.
DeleteXIV not confirming move in SPX (sucker's rally). 2280s still possible.
ReplyDeleteSC, if you only expecting 11-12 in uvxy, how high in spx after that and when
ReplyDeleteI'll post an update soon. Drop first though.
Deletesc, your model on spx on feb 18, is it still good.
ReplyDelete$SPX - Short Term Targets and Timing - 2017 Bear Market Cycle
Cycles and models show that the Bull Market for SPX since 2009 is terminating at red resistance.
Price can grind higher in the months ahead though as the topping process progresses. The model shows that the topping process will be characterized by whipsaws and chop.
The topping process is shown forming as a double top with completion estimated in the summer of 2017.
will we have pull back to around 2250 or so, then back up
Yes, it is valid. SPX has been following the model and I will be updating the progress.
DeleteSC, is the retest of the 2355 low still possible or 2380 is max for down now? Thank you!
ReplyDelete2,370 or 2,380 SPX.
DeleteHi SC, I'm just trying to understand your outlook -- you're still expecting a new high *this* week (coinciding with a marginal new high in XIV) before the drop to 2380 starting *next* week? Thanks
Deletesc what is the time frame on 2380
DeleteMarginal higher highs are possible. Next week SPX should see an initial drop and continue to decline for several weeks.
DeleteWhen is 2250. I hope u give us chart
ReplyDeleteYes, chart update is coming with timing.
Deletelooks like 245 in spy will come before 240 next week
ReplyDeleteMahendra is saying top inearly july. Mcdough has 3 three hinderberg omem now. Blustar. Is saying sharp down. Into next week. Then another high
ReplyDeletebrad from blue star is saying down monday but he is usually off by 2 days
Deletelol brad is never right
DeleteThat's not true he nailed nugget today is Market direction is pretty decent however both do a short-term option trades you will surely get destroyed
DeleteHe nailed gold correction also
ReplyDeleteSOX now at 1149. 1175-1200 is dot com (17 years ago) high.
ReplyDeleteDefinitely will hit it.
"Be Careful
June 1, 2017 at 9:16 AM
The markets won't make any more highs once SOX index hits 1175. That should be it for some time. But it will get to that number."
sc what price would you buy uvxy i have 9.80
ReplyDeleteUVXY entry? Time & price?
ReplyDeletelong uvxy at 9.95
ReplyDeletesold uvxy at 10.22
ReplyDeleteUvxy taking off. Triple bottom
ReplyDeleteMay be blustar will be correct ivxy 10.77
ReplyDeleteStay down on Friday and he was right
DeleteHere comes the washout low for XIV. Reducing XIV target from $66 to $63.
ReplyDeletelower target for SPX as well??
DeleteI still think around 2,360 to 2,380 SPX though 2,340 to 2,355 possible.
DeleteSPX plunging on the turn date.
ReplyDeleteSCJune 4, 2017 at 4:00 PM
"June 2nd was a turn date and June 9th or June 12th is the next.
SPX peaking within a week..."
I'm just not getting why you wouldn't go along uvxy or short XIV I was long uvxy this morning at 9 93 I'm just curious why you wouldn't do these trade what are your thoughts
DeleteThe reason is that I expected a bounce and lower high after the intial drop. We have seen the intial drop. So now I can short on a lower high with low risk entry.
DeleteSC, are buying today?
ReplyDeleteFantastic calls!
Thank you! I'll probably enter UVXY either today or Monday.
DeleteMarginal higher high this morning. Initial drop underway....
ReplyDeleteSCJune 8, 2017 at 11:35 AM
"Marginal higher highs are possible. Next week SPX should see an initial drop and continue to decline for several weeks."
Bought UVXY $10.65.
ReplyDeleteSC, UVXY exit target around $14-15? thx
DeleteTarget for UVXY $16. XIV can see $73 next week and $63 later in the month.
ReplyDeleteSC if uvxy goes to 16, I agree it will, won't XIV be much lower than 73?
DeleteSC,
DeleteIs UVXY $30 still in the cards?
If so, when....later this summer?
For the coming week we are looking to confirm continuation to the downside. Expect bounces on the way down for weeks. Initially may see XIV around $73 then bounce to around $78 and lower lows and lower highs to follow.
DeleteYes, ultimately XIV $30, but still in a whipsaw phase for months first.
DeleteSo with lower highs & lower lows in XIV to come does that mean higher highs/lows for UVXY? Was $9.90 the low?
DeleteWhat is corresponding UVXY target @ XIV $30?
DeleteFor now higher highs and higher lows for UVXY. $16 to $18 UVXY target on this move.
DeleteBecause the market is still in the whipsaw phase it is too early to calculate a UVXY target for the year.
DeleteWe'll get to that, but one step at a time.
UVXY is going to spike hard soon - market perhaps waiting on Fed rate hike tomorrow to get moving. Perhaps June 23 will be a lower high after the coming market selloff
DeleteSc wish you had posted chatrts
ReplyDelete9.93 was such a good price it was third bottom price. Would have been good.
ReplyDeleteTim ord saying. One more high. Uvxy. We will get heaper
ReplyDeleteSC, what's the next turn date in the cycles? Thank you!
ReplyDeleteJune 23rd.
DeleteSOX will get to 1175. S&P will not go below 2392-2399.
ReplyDeletethat's a 100 pts north? if it gets up there, shorting should be a given....
DeleteThe type of reversal we saw on Friday tend to signal a change in trend that lasts for a while...
ReplyDeleteMmm. DOW all time highs. Oh well :(
ReplyDeleteUVXY 9.75 next
ReplyDeletewe all know that could happen however there will be a massive spike at that level double down there in my opinion i originally bought 9.95 last week
DeleteAgreed Louis.
DeleteEntered UVXY today 10.15.
SC
ReplyDeleteAny change to your Forecast
And Do do you have Chart Coming for SPX
Thanks
In March and April SPX was trading at the low end of the trading range. Now SPX is trading at the high end of the range. Bearish. It's an easy call.
DeleteTech has declined and looks like we are waiting on financials to roll over. Financials rising over the last week, but only managing to test the high of March. Very weak!
ReplyDeleteFIRE sector is strong and just consolidating for further move north...support cluster at 23.80 will stop any move down....need a melt up for melt down....biotech sector ramping up to breakout.....no big move down until fall...
DeleteBiotech is the trade right now....
DeleteXIV is exactly sideways. It'll test $77 again soon.
ReplyDeleteuvxy acting weird should be much higher on move like this
DeleteUVXY acting typical and it takes a few sessions to build up momentum after being repressed for so long. I find it outperforms and makes up any initial lag quite quickly once it enters backwardation phase.
DeletePatiently waiting for $16-18
UVXY will spike soon - Nasdaq just consolidating prior to plunging to 5400s
DeleteWill you say 16 - 18 what would be the time frame your thoughts
DeleteHow do you learn about backwardation and contango
DeleteNeeds to happen soon (within next few days I would say if the setup is going to hold). For last few months NDX led the way and is now substantially below its ATH whereas SPX/DOW are still at ATHs. NDX is leading the way down and should infect SPX on the next downleg.
DeleteLouis, I also noticed that UVXY was bit out of wack, maybe because it's based on vix futureshttp://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=VX Interesting chart that illustrates Vix breakouts occur frequently near mid month
Deleteyes and thank u
DeleteI think the next stop for UVXY is 9.10 next week
ReplyDeleteSC Sorry to say UVXY is headed to $6.00 not $16.00
ReplyDeleteScott Bradshaw - Why?
ReplyDeleteMichael Greenhill - Why?
I'm not sure I agree. And I'll give my reasoning. OPex today. Weak close. Not the high of the week or the low of the week.
Started 2420 went to 2440 closed 2430 (approx). Range bound week.
Is it going to turn? Maybe, maybe not. I am not an investor. I am a trader. I win some. I lose some. Winners run and losers stop out. Game plan created and executed.
This OPEX did not seem right to me. I can't articulate why though.
Anyone? Bueller... Bueller...
Contagion. The future vix months drop next week to meet and become the current month's vix levels. Currently 2 months out are 18% higher than current. That means that the futures are dropping on avg 9% a month and hvu 18%. Currently hvu or uvzy are too dangerous to own going into next week. The 9.10 level for uvxy is just a rough guess based on the last 2 lows from an hourly chart
DeleteThanks for your analysis.
Deleteit could tag 9.60 that my price and we new it however expect a 40 to 50 percent spike
ReplyDeleteThe SPX closed 1.3 points Higher yesterday than Last Friday
ReplyDeleteYet UVXY Closed down 5% since last Friday
That's Contango.
sc alot of people posting negative stuff however im just curious
ReplyDeletei believe we will see a may 18 throughdown in market what are your thoughts on uvxy stiill the same
Yes exactly - clearly Vix Is being suppressed. Every time it is unleashed it explodes higher in 1/2 days. So you're right it will be like may 18
DeleteWaiting for UVXY comment from guru SC
ReplyDeleteIf SC says uvxy 16-18 then by golly it will get there...lol
It will be nice to have update to blog
ReplyDeleteSPX has been weak since the June 9th turn date. XIV just barely mustering a high, chart still flat. XIV still providing a clear warning for June.
ReplyDeleteNext turn date due June 23rd. Washout does look likely. 2,385 SPX within a week. XIV $77.
UVXY target is 9.03
ReplyDelete(That would be VXV target of 12.19 which is 1.3% lower).
XIV is up only $3 from the May high. The weakest performance all year...
ReplyDeletesc uvxy 16 still on horizon or is it lowered to 14
Deleteyour thoughts
thats the 60 min down trend line correct
ReplyDeletesc if xiv target is 77 that would mean 12.60 to 13 target on uvxy correct me if i am wrong contango backwardation trying to get a grip on this
ReplyDeleteI'll post a detailed chart with targets for XIV soon. There are different targets based on the time frames.
DeleteInitially $77 is where the previous support has been this month. $71 XIV is another level I am watching which would equate to approximately $13's for UVXY.
Sc,
DeleteIs UVXY 16-18 still in the cards or has that been modified to $13?
It's best to take things in steps. XIV $77 the previous support is the level to watch first. That would put UVXY back to $11.
DeleteI believe it we hit 77 will put new vxy at 11. 8
DeleteVIX just went green.
ReplyDeleteSelloff coming, just have to wait it out lol
DeleteTim ord is saying three drive to top pattern
ReplyDeleteWho is tom its and what is 3 drive to top pattern
DeleteLouis: https://twitter.com/ordoracle/status/876909738306531328
DeleteUvxy just does not make any sense to me whatsoever S&P down 12 uvxy 1008 now S&P down 980 uvxy flats for the day can anybody explain what the hell is going on with this thing
ReplyDeleteContagion
DeleteHi Louis,
ReplyDeleteIt is frustrating isnt it?
UVXY doesnt track S&P. it doesn't even track the VIX. It tracks VIX Futures which right now is in contango (which is why XIV is stubbornly holding the 80's). It takes awhile for this to reverse so UVXY is slow going at first.
Once vix futures are in backwardation, UVXY EXPLODES upwards and outperforms (is VIX will hover flat in 30-40's while uvxy gains 20-30% per day)
Thanks I've been buying this thing all the way down I have an average cost of about 993
DeleteYou are doing better than me. My average is 10.58.
DeleteWhen will you exit?
I will exit when SC exits it's not that I don't trust myself this contango crap I'm trying to get my hands around it I own a lot of this uvxy how control like 16000 shares in it
Deletewhat puts uvxy in backwardation
DeleteI like to monitor this ratio $VIX:$VXV. When above 1, it is in backwardation. When below 1, it is in contagion. Currently at .85. When gets below .8, people think the markets will never go down, start looking to short. When above 1, serious fear in the markets, start looking to buy. When at .8 though, means UVXY will continue to drop by 20% per month. UVXY is not a buy & hold.
DeleteTwo things trigger backwardation
Delete1) sudden spike in volatility
2) prolonged high volatility (VIX over 20 for weeks at a time)
Right now we have #2 in reverse...prolonged low volatility for weeks at a time so XIV is in backwardation. When XIV is in contango the losses are swift and severe 70-80% (though i have never seen xiv do a reverse split like uvxy)
scott what chart or how do you monitor vix and vxv ratio
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XIV&p=D&yr=2&mn=7&dy=0&id=p70799574258&a=523045163&listNum=1
DeleteSC I believe you said June 23 was the next Turn Day.
ReplyDeleteNow was that a Turn Up
Or Turn Down
Cheers
It looks like a high.
DeleteIs it Possible "THE CAPTAIN "
ReplyDeleteHas Abandoned Ship.
sc is there a point where you would stop out of this uvxy im not understatnding how this contango works confusing
ReplyDeleteXIV is trading in a tight range currently, and at this point in the cycle that is perfectly fine. I realize the charts haven't been exciting this month, but there is basically no change in prices through June.
ReplyDeleteSPX and XIV continue to look weak. UVXY looks good for a pop. I still this as a whipsawing market. Next move to the downside.
I don't mind that things are quiet at the moment. This is the quietest market in 50 years of data. It's going to be a very exciting summer and fall!
sc when you say pop on uvxy still 11 your thoughts
DeleteSC, how big of a pop are you waiting for uvxy? 11-13 (revised from 16-18?)
ReplyDeleteWould you add in $9 or are $8 possible (XIV 90+)
UVXY $11 is an initial target. $13 also likely to be tested but may pullback from $11 first.
DeleteHigher targets are possible but strong supports would have to break.
XIV may eventually warm up, but the performance has been so weak this month and it is approaching major long term resistance. I may look at it again later.
In 9.41, we have full 27 days to play this out, VIX should not stay this level, either lower low or higher high, cantango is not too bad at this point.
ReplyDeleteagreed
DeleteCurrent month 11.87, future month 12.65. Both are low in any measure. Contango 6% (everyday you will loss 0.3~0.4% by theory). Any pop of VIX will drive 10% 15% gain on UVXY, even VIX goes low, we have time on our side, so current and future month are not dancing with VIX... yet at least by now until deeper into Jul. It is all matter of odds, and SPX has more room down than up. I guess no one can question this. In general, we have slight edge...at least now. But UVXY is widow maker, so do not be greedy.
Deletecall me crazy..playing with fire like uvxy..got to be a bit crazy...but im thinking next week begins a pullback in xiv...uvxy to 15 by beginning of august
ReplyDeletebeing one dimensional in your trading is recipe for disaster....
ReplyDeletethe biotech health care breakout I noted above just put more in my account than any vix trade would.....sector rotation will push it higher, Financials are ready to push north....
6 mos ago UVXY was 42...now 9
6 mos ago XBI was 60 now 80....
Betterbewrong - Both UVXY and XIV are "widowmakers". Neither of these are investment vehicles. They are just something I "trade" on a very short time frame. In/out.
Deletehonestcreditguy - I'm interested in hearing more on your alternative sectors with payouts on the scale of volatility trading (other than options) on the same timeline (days).
6 months ago XIV was 32...now 85
ReplyDeleteWill next 6 mo see XIV 40 or 160?
This cant be held for a long time lol next pop get out then
DeleteOn June 4th, 2017 at 3:57 PM SC wrote, "Update coming soon" - that was 3 weeks ago!
ReplyDeleteWhen are you going to do an update? As far as I can tell the S&P 500 chops sideways for weeks on end while UVXY continues to decline in price. This has been going on for the last 5 weeks!
when he is ready to give an update he will
DeleteNDX reversing now. XIV washout to 63 should still be on tap...
ReplyDeleteagreed
Deleterigged market
ReplyDeleteAnother factor that this blog is forgetting about is the Quarter end bonuses. The boys aren't going to let this market tank until they lock in their bonuses.
ReplyDeleteUVXY has both contagion & quarter end going against it at this time.
ReplyDeleteYou mean contango?
DeleteYah sorry
Delete"Be Careful June 19, 2017 at 7:46 AM
ReplyDeleteUVXY target is 9.03"
Ding, Ding... 9.03 and falling - good call !!
Deleteand he didn't even low ball it, Be Careful nailed a couple other calls on here too...
DeleteVIX is just a crowded trade and the big boys love em.....reminds me a lot of trying to short CRE in 2010-15 via SRS or DRV....widowmakers
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteLook at divergence between VXN (NDX VIX) vs VIX (SPX) - something weird going on. but NDX leading the way down still.
ReplyDeleteNow no chance of moving above 10.xx in next UVXY rally.
ReplyDeleteSC what are your thoughts about uvxy now do you think it goes lower than this do you think a mistake was made let us know I'd rather kill it now before it goes any lower
ReplyDeleteUVXY continues to look good for a pop. The performance for XIV has been surprisingly weak, the weakest all year. XIV may be able to grind along this week, but $78 to $80 will be tested within 2 to 3 weeks. $70 will also be tested.
ReplyDeleteSPX looks especially bearish. It'll retrace most of the rally from May if not retest the May low.
ReplyDelete