UVXY has a first target of $35 initially. The second target suggested by the model is a minimum of $80, with potential for up to $120 as a maximum target.
The next turn date for the SPX timing Cycle is April 8th. SPX should see a significant initial plunge by or around that date to 1930 to 1950.
2hour Chart
Hang Seng 1997 Crash Model:
UVXY short term target. The first target is shown of a much larger move up!
2hour Chart
This appears to be a low risk, and potentially very high reward spot to short. For SPX see the previous chart, and following comments:
ReplyDeleteSCMarch 19, 2016 at 7:41 AM
"Currently SPX is close to the white trajectory line as shown on the chart above. The white line should act as a resistance and repel.
So this is a very nice spot to look for a decline. If SPX were to escape this white line then it would be time to reconsider. It seems highly unlikely considering this white line has repelled for more than 2 years.
There is a trendline up around 2080 SPX, and also a time stop can be kept in mind. The next turn date is April 8th. The bears want to see action to the downside by that time."
I notice that the banks have not rallied much since February. Very weak and a signal of trouble ahead...
ReplyDeleteHi SC
ReplyDeleteWOW , Chart looks awesome. Can't wait :-)
Thanks again for all your analysis :-)
Decline will likely begin by 22 March based on cycles, moon phase, nymo, cpce levels... It will likely be choppy at first as bulls buy the initial dip before Easter...low will likely be around 7-8 April based on moon phase. All conveniently timed with quarterly earnings reports to provide a nice bounce...
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/jqb3qss
ReplyDeleteCORRECTION…according to yahoo finance, 2000 top was 1552.87 on March 24 and 2007 top was 1,576.09 on October 11…during May 2016, SPX will be testing the 1553 area...
Thank you Rotrot, this January was certainly weaker than I had originally anticipated, and suggests further weakness ahead this year.
Deletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/did-central-bankers-make-a-secret-deal-to-drive-markets-this-rumor-says-yes-2016-03-18?siteid=yhoof2
ReplyDeleteStops are as per the time and price stops on SPX as in the first comment on this thread.
ReplyDeleteRest assured I am confident that the analysis is done correctly.
If you look at the Update before this one called "$SPX - Weekly", you will see a SPX chart with an oval, the red arrow is around 2050... we are there.
ReplyDeleteThat is where it should turn down. It has not yet, but much above that would be a Stop.
check out Northy's SPX weekly as of the close on March 21, 2006
ReplyDeletehttps://northmantrader.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/spx-w28.png
Larry Berman, good tech analyist, predicts 1600's in this bear market. No timeframe, see BNN Bermans call week of Mar 14
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thestreet.com/story/13503606/1/china-s-stock-market-is-about-to-crash-sell-before-it-s-too-late.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
ReplyDeleteSpy to 210 Iwm 113 then we'll start pullback
ReplyDeleteSC, I hope you're doing well. I understand that you prefer to remain evasive regarding your stop loss on your UVXY trade. But I hope that you have a price level in mind. It is completely fool to take exposure to these kinds of products without knowing how much you can loose in the worst case. UVXY is falling straight toward 20. How much additional decline you would like to see before going out?
ReplyDeleteThanks to inform your readers. It is important, from an ethical perspective, to remain transparent with the readers of your fantastic blog.
All the best, and I hope that April will be a successful month for you.
SPX is seeing a reaction and dipping from the white resistance as one would expect. However, it isn't convincing of a turn lower quite yet either.
ReplyDeleteXIV is grinding along the white line. I am considering that it may attempt to reach the turquoise line before turning lower.
I am watching to see how things shape up here. If it becomes clear that the rally is consolidating prior to some upside then I would consider stepping aside. We will see how it shapes up this week. SPX is at least struggling at this level.
SC, what SPX level are you watching to confirm downside momentum?
DeleteSPX support is around 2025, and then 2000.
DeleteHi SC
ReplyDeleteMarkets seem to be heading down , lets hope it continues this way. Oil also taking a nice hit.
Thanks for your hard work. I know its not easy finding the bottom in these markets but as long as we make money its all good.
Grazie
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/rich-dad-author-says-the-market-collapse-he-foresaw-in-2002-is-coming-2016-03-23?siteid=yhoof2
ReplyDeleteTrin (Arms Index) closed above 2.0 today. This is usually a positive for equities, at least over the short-term.
ReplyDeleteBetter get out UVXY if we head up Thursday.
http://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2014/08/a-sign-of-possible-capitulation-trin.html
Sold UVXY $25.50.
ReplyDeleteXIV may attempt to hit the turquoise line before a more significant decline. UVXY is around the blue line, but not so sure it's strong enough to break out. Decided to step aside, but will plan to reenter UVXY if XIV reaches the turquoise line.
ReplyDeleteHi SC
ReplyDeletegood catch to protect your investment.
Whats the plan if XIV doesn't reach the turquoise line ?
thanks again for all your hard work.
So far over the last month 3 trades on UVXY with 2 having small gain and 1 small loss. I'm not pleased with that result, but considering it's down from $60's to $20's being nimble has been important.
DeleteThe model shows a spot later to short anyways so I'm not concerned with missing moves. There will be a number of false starts to downside. I do think there will be a good short entry again soon.
The market has been gradually weakening over the last year. Market condition is deteriorating but slowly.
ReplyDeleteHi SC , any analysis on OIL since it hit a high for the year and now back down under $40 a barrel ?
ReplyDelete$50 Oil seems possible in May, but pullback in April.
DeleteLooking closely at the model for XIV it made 3 drives and 2 pullbacks to reach the blue arrow high.
ReplyDeleteSo far we have 2 drives and 2 pullbacks. One more runup ideally to complete the blue arrow high, and then it would be set beautifully for an April plunge...
2070.
ReplyDeletelooks like 2094 coming
ReplyDeleteSC, what's your comment about the entering UVXY with the recent pullback! I am not so positive at this time until around first week of April 2016.. I anticipate SPX to be in the range of 2060-2065 until the next turn..
ReplyDeleteThe market is starting to look tired, but there may a pop before it declines. Weakness in April is likely.
DeleteSC
ReplyDeletelets hope so :-)
Do you see OIL continuing to go further down ?
Thanks again
SPX on fire , may see 2060-2065 as mentioned earlier
ReplyDeleteUVXY making new 52week lows,,,
The last leg lower for UVXY from March 10th was $7. Doubt we'd see that much on this leg, possibly $5 from $21. The lower trendline comes in at $18. So $16 to $18 seems possible ideally for UVXY entry. UVXY could spike up in April so this is getting interesting.
ReplyDeleteSC, can you please post an updated chart for the spx?
ReplyDeleteWhat price level are you looking for as the top now?
Thanks