It seems unlikely that SPX will be able to muster the velocity needed to break free from the gravitational pull that has been pulling it downwards.
The most probable trajectory is as shown. While there is minor upside potential short term, a test of the red 200 weekly moving average is quite likely in the months ahead.
Weekly Chart
Three Falling Peaks ...
ReplyDeleteThere's several reasons, SPX has potential to rise closer to the red arrow and the 50ma weekly which today is 2032. So there's possible upside of 50 points or so.
ReplyDeleteUVXY is time sensitive. The next turn date is March 14th.
Oil has been heating up the last several days, and since SPX and Oil are highly correlated I don't think it makes sense to short SPX until this Oil rally is mature.
Bottom line I think a better short entry is coming.
In my opinion with any leveraged etf it's better to lean on the cautious side, and cut a loss than let it grow. Of course it is not unnecessary to get the perfect entry, but quite often it takes 1 or 2 tries to get an optimal entry in these situations.
ReplyDelete1947 is the base for next two months. 2020 upside.
ReplyDeleteNo bear market?...........what charts are some of you folks looking at.
ReplyDeleteMarkets are in a clearly defined bear market, currently we just in the "whoa, that was close stage" before the real plunge begins and gold is in the earlt stages of what will, IMO Be the biggest bull market in history.
If any of you are are familiar with Jeff Kern and his gold stock system SKI, i have been a long term student, you will know what happened last week. A never before signal that portends financial chaos and a gold and silver rally the likes of which has never been seen.
bull the gold market is going to get slaped
DeleteLouis, you and the vast majority of the rest of the world's population are about to be amazed. Jeff Kern developed his mechanical system over 40 yeats ago.
DeleteIt is without a doubt the best system ever developed amd not by a small margin, by a country mile.
Is it perfect?.....of course not, but also just gave a signal which is highly highly unlikely to be a false or failed signal.
I have have followed and been a subscriber to Jeff for over 15 years. Get ready for a USD global financial collapse of epic proportions.
Notice the reaction to Drahgi's latest attempt at re-flating and more impotantly gold's reaction?
just remember when market collapses every thing goes down with it i will maintain my 750 price target on gold
DeleteSC, what' your XIV target with SPX around 2032?
ReplyDelete$24
DeleteSPX is sliding, and may dip for a few more days. Then it should rise again. SPX on pace to peak late March in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteWe are very close to the next leg down of what is already unfolding as the greatest financial collapse in centuries.
ReplyDeleteThe compkacency amongst you all is just astounding. European markets are about to collapse to new lows and as I have said constantly US markets are following the DAX much much lower.
Look for substabtially lower lows in April before any signs of a bounce likely into mid-year followed by total chaos into October.
i doubt it not during an election year
Deleteget ready for 2150
DeleteThe next turn date is March 14th. It's likely a low so I'll be interested in positioning in XIV for the next leg up.
ReplyDeleteSC, what level/range of XIV will be of interest? thx
Delete$19's.
DeleteNext run should see around $24.
DeleteHi SC,
ReplyDeleteWhat would UVXY be at if XIV is at $24 and will you be buying UVXY at that time.
Thanks again
Low $20's for UVXY. Yes, that is the plan.
Deleteawesome that would be a great catch for UVXY
ReplyDeleteWhats the target on the 1st leg up for UVXY ?
Around $40.
Deleteoh wow that's almost a 100% return, awesome :-)
ReplyDeleteThanks again SC for all your hard work and analysis and keeping us all posted, Really appreciate your time,thoughts,efforts
ReplyDeleteSC, XIV low was $20.02, do you think that was it or $19s still possbile?
ReplyDeleteLooks like the dip is over.
ReplyDeleteWould you buy here?
DeleteXIV should peak $23 to $24 in about a week. I'm going to focus on shorting. Waiting for UVXY to decline.
ReplyDeleteSC, at what level (price) do you see the S&P topping out?
ReplyDeleteAlso is there a chance we just go to new highs without dipping into the 1800s?
Thanks
I'd estimate the red arrow target is around 2045 SPX give or take.
DeleteThere's no chance.
SC do you see the 14th the turn date as being the high now instead of a low?
ReplyDeleteYes, the timing cycle was inverted in February. Now it has reverted back to normal. So it does show March 14th as the high.
ReplyDeleteNext turn date is April 8th. It'll probably be a low, but in any case I think SPX 1930 to 1940 by that date.
SPX finding resistance right at the 200 dma. Support is around 2,000. The 50 weekly ma is 10 points higher.
ReplyDeleteSPX might dip to test around 2,000 and then see a littler higher this week.
It does look to be getting close to a high.
Notice also today that VIX is higher than Friday, and also the low early in March.
ReplyDeleteWell there's the dip.
ReplyDeleteSC, is this a small dip for SPX and will head higher ?
ReplyDeleteYes, SPX is getting ready to spike up.
ReplyDeletethanks SC
ReplyDeleteseems like OIL is getting hit yesterday/today any thoughts on that aswell. ?
appreciate it
Yes, Oil and SPX are still correlated. Oil is getting expensive.
DeleteSC, What do you think about GDX movement in terms of direction until next month..
ReplyDeleteThe Cycle is still bullish for Gold for probably several more months. The pullbacks will likely be minor for Gold during this time frame.
DeleteSilver is working towards my $17 target. The pullbacks in Silver are more pronounced than Gold which is interesting.
SPX reached the 50 weekly ma today!
ReplyDeleteBought UVXY at $25.35.
ReplyDeleteWhat's your exit target and timing? Thanks
DeleteAround $35 target for UVXY in 3 weeks. Early April.
Deletehey SC , good catch , hope not to early though.
ReplyDeletewhere will UVXY go upto this time around
thanks again
The first target for UVXY is $35, and the second target is in the $80's. Potential for a big move here!
DeleteSC, what would be your 1st and 2nd targets on SPX?
ReplyDeleteWow that's awesome
ReplyDeletegreat returns on investments , that's for sure
Thanks again for all your time and analysis.
SPX first target 1930. Second target 1720 to 1780.
ReplyDeleteSC , seems like Markets are still heading higher , what are your thoughts , do you think you bought to earlier or just hard to pinpoint the low? Thanks again
ReplyDeleteI knew it would be a spiky move that'll just collapse. Waterfall soon.
DeleteFrom 1930. Do u think it bounces to 2080
ReplyDelete1930 SPX bounce to 2000, drop to 1700's.
DeleteSPX...2000 top was 1527.46 and 2007 top was 1565.15...during May 2016, SPX will be testing those levels...
Deletei like your targets, but as for uvxy, might be too early
ReplyDeleteshould use vxx for potential targets and calculate it in uvxy, decay kills it
im waiting for vxx at 19.1 ish, then ill buy uvxy
A little early but not too early. The waterfall to commence shortly!
ReplyDeleteCan't wait for this waterfall and the 2nd one :-)
ReplyDeleteChaching :-) 52 week low in place for UVXY
VIX
ReplyDeletehttp://mymarketgeometry.com/
Thanks Joe!
DeleteHuston, we have a problem...
ReplyDeleteOpEx...oil baron meeting...full moon...
Maybe after that.
SC.
ReplyDeleteMarkets going higher , seems like UVXY was a early buy again
your thoughts , thanks
vix going to 12
ReplyDeletethere is also a possibility that we see 2080
ReplyDeleteSold all XIV at $24.10.
ReplyDeleteXIV has reached $24.
ReplyDeleteSCMarch 11, 2016 at 7:29 AM
"XIV should peak $23 to $24 in about a week."
RSI at 70 today. XIV is extremely overbought.
ReplyDeleteSCMarch 3, 2016 at 10:21 AM
"For example RSI(14) closer to 70 ideally on the daily chart of XIV would be extremely overbought."
Is this sky high enough for you guys??
ReplyDeleteSCFebruary 9, 2016 at 7:04 AM
"SPX rally time! It's about to blow sky high. Buckle up!!"
LOL.. that and then some.. I thought 1975 was not doable at the time.. and here we are sitting at 2050...
DeleteAwsome call.. keep up the good work SC!
SC
ReplyDeletethought you weren't holding any XIV and were concentrating on UVXY
Whats going on UVXY keeps going lower, your thoughts.
I had some remaining XIV from long ago. Now positioned in UVXY.
ReplyDeleteSPX is at 2050, and we should see 300 points down on this next move. Get ready, the waterfall is going to be spectacular!
ReplyDeleteSounds exciting
ReplyDeletewhere do you see UVXY at during this waterfall.
Asked & Answered... COME ON PEOPLE!
DeleteSC March 16, 2016 at 4:07 PM
The first target for UVXY is $35, and the second target is in the $80's. Potential for a big move here!
Opppsss Im sorry, yes SC did answer :-)
ReplyDeleteJust wanted re-confirmation as if anything changed in his Analysis and Charts
SC what is your max upside limit if this up move decides to continue on next week?
ReplyDeleteAt what point is there a mental stop loss basically.. for your theorry of going down 300 points...
Currently SPX is close to the white trajectory line as shown on the chart above. The white line should act as a resistance and repel.
DeleteSo this is a very nice spot to look for a decline. If SPX were to escape this white line then it would be time to reconsider. It seems highly unlikely considering this white line has repelled for more than 2 years.
There is a trendline up around 2080 SPX, and also a time stop can be kept in mind. The next turn date is April 8th. The bears want to see action to the downside by that time.
Update and new charts posted!
ReplyDelete