For Silver a dip to test near the midfork this week is the plan. A rounded top in a tight sideways range should follow after that dip. Once the rounded top is complete, a decline to test the September low is anticipated.
60min Chart
Sunday, October 30, 2011
Thursday, October 27, 2011
$SPX - Next Week
A top is probably in, or very close. Looking at the geometry, a decline to the green arrow seems possible into next week. That is approximately 1187 SPX.
In terms of timing, around Oct 31st to Nov 1st looks bearish in cycles, but starting around Nov 3rd looks surprisingly bullish from my work. Looking at the symmetry at point 6 (yellow) a dip down occurs after the top (from Right to Left). I think it may occur similarly this time as well.
Next week looks very volatile, and it is going to be important in terms of confirmation in my cycle theory.
60min Chart
Silver hit the orange line target today. Price and timing targets both were very accurate on this chart (link below). Upside looks minimal from here, and a quick dip to $30 or so looks possible into next week.
http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/09/silver-collapse-resumes-2012-target-650.html
2hour Chart
In terms of timing, around Oct 31st to Nov 1st looks bearish in cycles, but starting around Nov 3rd looks surprisingly bullish from my work. Looking at the symmetry at point 6 (yellow) a dip down occurs after the top (from Right to Left). I think it may occur similarly this time as well.
Next week looks very volatile, and it is going to be important in terms of confirmation in my cycle theory.
60min Chart
Silver hit the orange line target today. Price and timing targets both were very accurate on this chart (link below). Upside looks minimal from here, and a quick dip to $30 or so looks possible into next week.
http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/09/silver-collapse-resumes-2012-target-650.html
2hour Chart
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
$SPX - Bounced on Support
Bounced as suggested this morning with the fork lines doing a nice job of defining support levels:
"Wasn't surprising to see the bounce this morning since closed yesterday at some support. Now trading at the red line. Financials haven't followed through as much on the downside this morning. Looks like a short term bounce may set up again soon."
NDX is still underperforming though, and that is an issue in terms of sustainability of this rally. As well I have Oct 31st and Nov 1st flagged for potential weakness.
15min Chart
"Wasn't surprising to see the bounce this morning since closed yesterday at some support. Now trading at the red line. Financials haven't followed through as much on the downside this morning. Looks like a short term bounce may set up again soon."
NDX is still underperforming though, and that is an issue in terms of sustainability of this rally. As well I have Oct 31st and Nov 1st flagged for potential weakness.
15min Chart
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
$SPX - 30min Chart
Short term support and resistance lines are shown on this chart. The rally hit resistance at the orange fork and retreated hitting some support at the end of the day today.
My cycle work indicates some selling should occur into Oct 31st or Nov 1st. Around Nov 3rd looks quite positive though.
I've shown some larger scale charts previously, and will take it one step at a time as well with the short term charts into the next turn date.
30min Chart
My cycle work indicates some selling should occur into Oct 31st or Nov 1st. Around Nov 3rd looks quite positive though.
I've shown some larger scale charts previously, and will take it one step at a time as well with the short term charts into the next turn date.
30min Chart
Sunday, October 23, 2011
SPY - 2011 Pattern Similar to 2008
There is a comparison to 2008 that can be made with the pattern of trading so far in 2011. Despite the similarily, I do not see evidence that a 2008 style of crash is about to occur. The market has a mechanism of alternating patterns which look similar on the surface for a while, but produce a much different end result.
For example, many will remember the May-July 2009 Head and Shoulders failed pattern. Traders questioned the Head and Shoulders top during February to July this year, but unlike 2009, the bearish 2011 H&S pattern did complete and follow through this time in 2011.
This is 2011, not 2008, and the similarity can be useful for a period of time, but ultimately each should be treated as a unique situation.
While the current trading pattern in 2011 mimics 2008, the difference this time shows up in the cycles, and it shows in the sentiments. I remember 2008 clearly, and there were not many bears in the summer of 2008. Since summer 2011, bearish sentiments have built up quite high.
The 2008 pattern also reminds that bear market rallies can be deceptively sharp.
Daily
The following is the 2008 Crash.
3day Chart
For example, many will remember the May-July 2009 Head and Shoulders failed pattern. Traders questioned the Head and Shoulders top during February to July this year, but unlike 2009, the bearish 2011 H&S pattern did complete and follow through this time in 2011.
This is 2011, not 2008, and the similarity can be useful for a period of time, but ultimately each should be treated as a unique situation.
While the current trading pattern in 2011 mimics 2008, the difference this time shows up in the cycles, and it shows in the sentiments. I remember 2008 clearly, and there were not many bears in the summer of 2008. Since summer 2011, bearish sentiments have built up quite high.
The 2008 pattern also reminds that bear market rallies can be deceptively sharp.
Daily
The following is the 2008 Crash.
3day Chart
Thursday, October 20, 2011
$SPX - 10min Chart
SPX bounced again today at the yellow midfork line which has proven to be important. Trading is in a sideways pattern, but I expect we'll see further confirmation soon.
10min Chart
10min Chart
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
$SPX - Bearish Symmetry
SPX bounced again today at the yellow midfork. The red upper fork line was also tested, and that is typically a very strong resistance.
The configuration of the turquoise fork looks complete and favourable for a decline now.
2hour Chart
The symmetry to either side of the cycle line looks bearish. There should be a final plunge from 6 down to point 7 which is equivalent in the symmetry to the August panic lows. Notice that point 7 is below point 5.
The last week appears to be a broadening top formation - a sign of increased volatility to come.
60min Chart
The configuration of the turquoise fork looks complete and favourable for a decline now.
2hour Chart
The symmetry to either side of the cycle line looks bearish. There should be a final plunge from 6 down to point 7 which is equivalent in the symmetry to the August panic lows. Notice that point 7 is below point 5.
The last week appears to be a broadening top formation - a sign of increased volatility to come.
60min Chart
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