Friday, December 27, 2024
SVXY - Unusual VIX Spikes
The August volatility in markets can be explained by SVXY measured moves equal size with the Covid collapse of 2020. Last Wednesday the VIX spiked 74% the second largest in history. These unusual spikes in VIX are happening more frequently and are a warning that markets are becoming increasingly unstable at these high levels. Weekly
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As we head into 2025 the mood feels much different than 2016. This time around there is skepticism.
ReplyDeleteWe have a debt challenge coming up.
Sc do you see any large pull backs in spx in 2025 ?
ReplyDeleteYes I do think we will see a significant drop in SPX with weak markets.
DeleteWhat do you think about UVXY in January? As Yellen warned in mid-January default, do you think UVXY can exceed August's high?
DeleteNot yet for the August highs in VIX, but another spike is coming. Also I expect another measured move on this chart will come rather sooner than later.
DeleteThey are funding the government 3 weeks at a time now.
DeleteSPX has H&S top now. Should get 5600 maybe next few weeks?
Deleteoil and interest rates look ready to launch. Dollar super strong - wonder if this will eventually pressure gold.
DeleteOil is looking close. The whipsawing is likely almost finished.
Delete"Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen informed Congress on Friday that if lawmakers do not act to raise or suspend the nation’s debt limit as soon as Jan. 14 she would most likely need to begin using “extraordinary measures” to prevent the United States from defaulting on its debt."
ReplyDeleteThe outlook going into 2025 looks negative for markets.
ReplyDeleteI see 2025 as a transition year. With incoming Trump administration the markets have a lot to digest. 2026 looks better in my view.
ReplyDeleteI have identified a very large trade that I am watching develop.
ReplyDeleteUnited States at the brink of default. 2025 and 2026 may be the most profitable time ever!
ReplyDeleteCongratulations to all on New Years Eve!!!
Any thoughts about Tesla?
ReplyDeleteMusk props up Tesla only to sell stock. It's a typical stock promotion. Last time Musk said needed to sell stock to buy Twitter. Musk getting ready to sell another batch once again...
DeleteYou mean Tesla will po up soon? Humm... I am betting on down... You made me think again.
DeleteMusk still owns a lot of stock. The promotion will come to an end in the later stages as Musk unloads.
DeleteQuantum stocks have been lots of fun lately, imagine AI via quantum. Scary stuff. They all seem to go together. IONQ RGTI QBTS QUBT. Big selloff after hours, might be worth picking up soon. Price action is crazy
ReplyDeleteAgree. Lots of things going on.
DeleteNvidia Huang predicted it will be 15 to 30 years before the quantum technology is commercially viable. This seems to be cooling off.
DeleteI see 2025 as cold year for AI. 2026 hot year and I have a big plan for that!
2025 and Trump talking about buying Greenland, taking over Panama Canal and merging with Canada!
ReplyDeleteCrude oil surging!!!
ReplyDeleteoil getting ready for fireworks into end of month? Oil, interest rates and dollar up, everything else down soon?
DeleteOil has been showing a lot of strength. I think may flatten out a bit here. The Oil chart is developing excellent! I have a model for this and looks quite exciting for this year. I'll post updates. Just waiting for the inauguration..
DeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete