Crude Oil has been consolidating from the breakout in 2022. Oil is relatively cheap and priced similar to 2007! Oil has been getting quite volatile in recent years with some consolidation since 2023. We should expect a test of the 2008 high. $150 Oil is coming... Monthly
Oil likely to trade soon in the higher end of the range above $100 and up.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update SC! Middle east escalation coming to drive the price higher?
DeleteMany reasons, wars, yes middle East and slow uptake of electric cars. Higher demand forecast for years.
DeleteXLE my favored play continues to show strength and bounced again at 50 weekly.
ReplyDeleteStill could use some time as XLE 200 weekly comes into the picture.
DeleteDon't you think recession cause to dropped oil?
ReplyDeleteYes agree but it'll spike first before the recession.
DeleteAny thoughts on Nat Gas which is more volatile than oil? especially BOIL?
ReplyDeleteI like the long term for natural gas with tremendous upside long term 10 or 15 years. Short term though there's a glut of natural gas to work through. Natural gas reserves deplete quickly. Natural gas will benefit with all other energy but not as strongly short term as oil.
DeleteGetting close to some sort of VIX spike? Will oil spike with it?
ReplyDeleteA few more months I think
DeleteAssassination attempt heading into the Election!
ReplyDeleteVIX seems to be firming up around 13 even as markets continue to rally - similar to 2018? Something seems afoot
DeleteVIX 16 - biden to drop out of the race over the weekend?
DeleteMarkets had a bad week.
DeleteFor now I think just some minor selling but I do agree. We are getting closer....
DeleteIWM 277 PT and it could be 8-12 week move
ReplyDeleteGreat call Rob!!! Biden drops his presidential campaign. Absolutely incredible situation leading into an explosive Election.
ReplyDeleteShould get even more interesting later this week or next...
DeleteAre we getting closer to NVDA plunges SC?
DeleteBTC is still up which means SPX is not ready to crush. Is VIX up today is only an event for 1-2 days? or beginning of crust for 1-2 month? What is the short term outlook?
DeleteRob, is this the beginning of what you mentioned about this week? What do you think about UVXY?
DeleteLooks interesting. Think SPX may continue to decline into mid-late August here. Market very oversold so could be choppy volatile. Fed meets tmr. Market also very complacent here with most expecting a crash in September/October.
DeleteAlright well we've seen weakening SPX and some selling come out, but then this morning GDP came in at 2.8%. They say better than expected and that gives the market a little support but 2.8% is pathetic growth really. The economy is just barely keeping it's head above Recession.
ReplyDeleteI did consider VIX and UVXY but it's just very early for that. Ok for daytrading for now that's it. As we get closer to the historic mortgage reset volatility will skyrocket.
ReplyDeleteFirst 2% down day for SPX in 357 days...another time this occurred was in Jan 2018...wonder if we can selloff into mid-August? maybe retrace to 5100 - would be a similar sized move to 2018.
DeleteVIX almost 30 today...starting to see some mild signs of panic.
DeleteNot sure about WTI price with Trump, will WTI drop below USD$70 soon? or It will go above USD$90 first and then drop back to below $60 in next 6 to 12 months?
ReplyDeleteOil still consolidating for big run higher. Biden still in office until January so it's going to be interesting.
DeleteI just plan to keep buying any dips in Oil stocks. Huge profits are coming!
SC - are you expecting oil to breakout closer to the election?
DeleteOil might be getting ready to move if this Israel/Iran war expands into other countries
DeleteHi All, This is a very rare big spike for UVXY for two days in a row. Typically, this occurs when UVXY increases by 10 times. Currently, we are experiencing both geopolitical issues and a decline in BTC. Do you believe that there is a chance for a 10x increase as seen in 2020?
ReplyDeleteIn order for that to occur I think we will need oil to spike to 150+ which may happen soon given the war escalation with Iran/Israel over the weekend.
DeleteFinally some selling!!! I've been waiting cautiously with my list of stocks to buy for cheap. I knew that AI rally was a fake!
ReplyDeleteSCMay 28, 2024 at 7:35 AM
Delete"It appears that much of the AI run can be accounted for by CHIP Act money and the money is coming to an end..."
I had identified that the AI rally was running out of steam back in May. Then we saw the Hindenburg Omen occur. When Trump was nearly assassinated and Biden dropped out that was a Black Swan event!
ReplyDeleteI think there should be a bit more selling to come. I'd look at the previous high of 2022. SPX 4,800.
ReplyDeleteThink we can get there in next few weeks esp if oil spikes soon.
DeleteVIX as high as 65 this morning!
ReplyDeleteWe got the 2018 VIX move...is the 1987 VIX move next? If oil spikes to 150 here in the next week or two with Israel/Iran escalation...
DeleteShort term expect lower into October for markets, but for Volatility it's still just early. Volatility is king and it won't stop until it reaches the test of 1987 levels 170 VIX. That's still a long time away.
DeleteInteresting that Japan's Nikkei overnight had the worst selloff since 1987.
ReplyDeleteFor Oil shares I do expect the best opportunities are coming soon to enter and increase positions. The biggest spike will take some time. I plan to continue to increase positions.
ReplyDeleteIf the oil goes up the inflation will go up too and the economy is strong
ReplyDeleteYes Oil will drive inflation much higher.
DeleteThe market should grind lower short term. By October it can be in position for a strong bounce.
ReplyDeleteI think the best Volatility will come next year as 75% of mortgages reset. You can see the panic already starting...
ReplyDeleteI agree today's bounce is not the end after the big crash. It will go about next 2 mon. But this week and next week will be pretty volatile. Any thought for the short term? next 1-2 weeks?
ReplyDeleteVIX is subsiding for now. We will see a lot of churning. Some bounces but grind lower overall.
Delete"Trump possible target of Pakistani national charged in murder-for-hire plot"
ReplyDeleteVolatility should cool off some more next week.
ReplyDeleteBought SVXY $45.35.
ReplyDeleteVolatility charts coming!
ReplyDeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete