SPX looks overextended and is overbought on weekly charts. A correction is likely underway. Probably SPX will see significant declines this week and particularily next week to start with and eventually testing the 50 week average again. Weekly
Thanks SC for the update. Holding some puts. BTFP expires March 11 and BOJ may end negative rates in March/April. Seems there are a few catalysts for coming correction.
SPX is fading and we can expect to see declines, and really the technicals look pretty bad. SPX does have one thing going and that is some momentum. That is why it's declining slowly to start.
"A severe drought in Panama is creating long queues and delays at the Panama Canal, causing shipping disruptions and further highlighting the impact the climate crisis is having on global trade.
The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) has limited the number of vessels passing through the canal for several dry months due to water scarcity. Restrictions were also imposed on ships' depth while in the canal, curbing the amount of cargo they can hold.
In a statement, the ACP said the ongoing drought is posing “unprecedented challenges” and has “no historical precedence.”
That is something I'm watching closely. An oil shock may be approaching. Oil is moving quite slowly at the moment but I think it can reprice upwards. (WTI) crude oil posted its all-time high of $147.27 on Friday, July 11, 2008.
As far as I know, GS bets huge on energy sector especially NG. NG is most about politics and the war. As soon as the war ends, it will go. Any thought?
The downfall of the electric car is creating explosive conditions for oil. The hope was for electric cars to reduce oil demand but it was a mirage that hasn't materialized.
"The Ides of March is a day that was on the Roman calendar and is most prominently known for being the day that Julius Caesar was assassinated—an event which many see as a turning point for the Roman Empire. However, it is also a day that has gained notoriety for being a day on which bad things happen. On the Gregorian calendar, this day falls on March 15th."
Would be bold enough to seize Trump Tower or his other buildings if he doesn't post bail...NYCB got a $1b equity infusion, but wonder if that will help them stave off a potential bank run after BTFP expires on Monday.
Trump doesn't like to use his money to pay for things. For now he can probably stall a little longer. I also think he may be considering a stock play to pay for it. This could be quite exciting!
CPI will determine market direction in AM, if hot, I expect a buyable bottom in XBI, closing gap at 97.50, heck even today not out of question, on its run to 125
Democrats did it again, they hate biotech, sell off almost coincided with articles https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4549660-biden-campaign-obamacare-trump-health-care/
the market might take a big hit next week by looking at XBI, risk off smells it first. This push down was on no volume but intense over time frame. I sold out at loss
Not sure if it will follow along with SPX, but NVDA kinda looks like an island top as well. Guess we are waiting on the Fed to see if this thing turns down soon.
Well we know it will end badly. This is because inflation is rising again albeit slowly now. Market conditions and rate cut talk are leading to inflation blowout.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Lawmakers introduced a $1.2 trillion spending package Thursday that sets the stage for avoiding a partial government shutdown for several key federal agencies this weekend and allows Congress, nearly six months into the budget year, to complete its work in funding the government through September.
SPX ran up and it is getting into the target range and yes still valid.
So we'll have to watch. However, still it's too early to look for the bear market turn. We're getting there.
This is big picture so it takes time to form a major topping process.
Next bear will be vicious and we see markets are setting to experience a very bad year. 2025 is a good estimate but I agree with you we have to watch closely as this run happened fast. A lot of mortgages are about to get washed out.
March was a disaster. Baltimore bridge catastrophe. Sam Bankman Fried fraud. Government disfunction.
SCMarch 5, 2024 at 7:04 AM
"Beware the Ides of March. March 15th.
"The Ides of March is a day that was on the Roman calendar and is most prominently known for being the day that Julius Caesar was assassinated—an event which many see as a turning point for the Roman Empire. However, it is also a day that has gained notoriety for being a day on which bad things happen. On the Gregorian calendar, this day falls on March 15th."
SPX can lose some ground this week and have a bad week next week.
ReplyDeleteThe correction last summer took about 3 months. This correction could take about 2 months.
ReplyDeleteThanks SC for the update. Holding some puts. BTFP expires March 11 and BOJ may end negative rates in March/April. Seems there are a few catalysts for coming correction.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteSC, are you buying anything here?
ReplyDeleteLABD is having a rough day.
Not yet. LABU shot up and great, but it also was lagging SPX for most of January and February.
DeleteThe big play coming is that Recession is right around the corner. It's a little too early to position for that, but it's coming.
ReplyDeleteThe market seems go along with Crypto. It just hit over $60K. What's your thoughts on the market next 2 weeks?
DeleteCrypto and the markets are tied together. When Crypto hits a high it's an indication of irrational exuberance as Greenspan would say.
DeleteSPX is fading and we can expect to see declines, and really the technicals look pretty bad. SPX does have one thing going and that is some momentum. That is why it's declining slowly to start.
DeleteYes, you are right. So do you see crypo will keep going up next week or just take a break (down first then up) then go up?
DeleteI think the bitcoin all time high was around $69,000. Sam Bankman Fried is due to be sentenced March 28th.
DeleteThank you for sharing thought. Then do you still believe the market will take a pull back next week?
DeleteThanks SC! Always appreciate your insight.
ReplyDeleteBuy TGTX on weakness....buy out candidate at much higher levels
ReplyDeletePanama Canal is in crisis.
ReplyDelete"A severe drought in Panama is creating long queues and delays at the Panama Canal, causing shipping disruptions and further highlighting the impact the climate crisis is having on global trade.
The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) has limited the number of vessels passing through the canal for several dry months due to water scarcity. Restrictions were also imposed on ships' depth while in the canal, curbing the amount of cargo they can hold.
In a statement, the ACP said the ongoing drought is posing “unprecedented challenges” and has “no historical precedence.”
Forty percent of all U.S. container traffic travels through the Panama Canal every year.
DeleteAre you thinking oil could rally in the near term?
DeleteThat is something I'm watching closely. An oil shock may be approaching. Oil is moving quite slowly at the moment but I think it can reprice upwards. (WTI) crude oil posted its all-time high of $147.27 on Friday, July 11, 2008.
DeleteSC do you plan to go long oil with GUSH soon?
DeleteAs far as I know, GS bets huge on energy sector especially NG. NG is most about politics and the war. As soon as the war ends, it will go. Any thought?
DeleteThe downfall of the electric car is creating explosive conditions for oil. The hope was for electric cars to reduce oil demand but it was a mirage that hasn't materialized.
DeleteNot imminent yet Sami.
DeleteOil moving over 80 today for first time in a while...
DeleteDWAC falls back Trump as $500 million judgment weighs
ReplyDelete"SCFebruary 7, 2024 at 6:24 AM
DWAC reached $45 target. It may fall back to test support $32."
XBI, LABU drop. Looks like they fall back to January high.
ReplyDeleteXBI dropped off the 200 weekly.
DeleteSPX still clinging in there but appears to be forming an island top pattern.
ReplyDeleteDOW closes with a loss on the week!
ReplyDeleteSC.. you are expecting a drop to 4500 ?
ReplyDeleteOne step at a time. We now have a valid topping pattern in play for SPX.
DeleteBeware the Ides of March. March 15th.
ReplyDelete"The Ides of March is a day that was on the Roman calendar and is most prominently known for being the day that Julius Caesar was assassinated—an event which many see as a turning point for the Roman Empire. However, it is also a day that has gained notoriety for being a day on which bad things happen. On the Gregorian calendar, this day falls on March 15th."
Oil inching over 81 as we approach your march 15-22nd window
DeleteGovernment shutdowns this month of March. The government will run out of money this Friday.
ReplyDeleteIt gets worse.
Defense, State and Homeland Security departments, which face a March 22 deadline.
Dow falls 500 points, Nasdaq drops 2% as Apple leads tech lower.
ReplyDeleteSCFebruary 26, 2024 at 2:39 PM
"SPX can lose some ground this week and have a bad week next week."
DOW is weaker but SPX still filling in the island top pattern.
ReplyDeleteNFP tomorrow. BTFP expires Monday. BOJ rate meeting Feb 19...getting close to a reversal?
DeleteGiven how overextended SPX is - seems like next 2-3 weeks could finally bear out a correction of sorts
DeleteThe most important window may be March 15th to March 22nd. It may make sense to short March 15 as we approach the funding deadline.
DeleteDefense, State, and Homeland Security departments funding deadline on March 22nd.
DeleteOnly 2 weeks away!
SC - For island top pattern... we need a gap down below 5038 area from Feb 22nd at some point next week?
DeleteA gap down around the 5,000 SPX. We're still within the island top and by measurement the thicker it becomes the harder it falls.
DeleteWe'll have to see about the "when".
Perhaps next week? Market still gyrating near the highs
DeleteTrump posted the smaller bond today but there is nothing to suggest he intends to post the larger $454 million amount at this time.
ReplyDeleteWould be bold enough to seize Trump Tower or his other buildings if he doesn't post bail...NYCB got a $1b equity infusion, but wonder if that will help them stave off a potential bank run after BTFP expires on Monday.
DeleteTrump doesn't like to use his money to pay for things. For now he can probably stall a little longer. I also think he may be considering a stock play to pay for it. This could be quite exciting!
DeleteThe Court date has been set for Trump's immunity claim! April 25th
ReplyDeleteTrump vs. United States
SPX has closed down for the week! The DOW, a weaker index, closed down 2 weeks consecutively.
ReplyDelete"Nasdaq drops 1% Friday as Nvidia tumbles, Dow closes out worst week since October"
ReplyDeleteCPI will determine market direction in AM, if hot, I expect a buyable bottom in XBI, closing gap at 97.50, heck even today not out of question, on its run to 125
ReplyDeleteseasonality supports Natural gas middle of month thru May
Deletepicked up first buy at 95.90 of XBI long, have bids at 95.15 and 94.75
DeleteThis worked. Some support here.
DeleteSCFebruary 29, 2024 at 12:44 PM
"XBI, LABU drop. Looks like they fall back to January high."
quad witching and hot ppi, filled my other bids....now lets see if seasonality kicks in next week and mm's got their retest of breakout
DeleteXBI drifts to 93.40, the L trade risk - reward excellent, I added a bid there
Deletewell, I'm changing my tune on XBI, it looks like the big boys want it lower.....just broke thru my stop layer...
Deletewell, I have less shares because of first stop hit but this trade now looks like its back in play.
Delete124 PT
DeleteJoined you, bought LABU!
Deleteunreal push down of XBI in 24 hours after it hit 97+
Deletesmells of huge sell off next week
Democrats did it again, they hate biotech, sell off almost coincided with articles https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4549660-biden-campaign-obamacare-trump-health-care/
DeleteIt is annoying. Let's see how it goes next week. I was thinking Biotech rally a little next week and maybe selloff April.
Deletethe market might take a big hit next week by looking at XBI, risk off smells it first. This push down was on no volume but intense over time frame. I sold out at loss
DeleteBe careful shorting, rotation into financials is under way, BKX has target of 140
ReplyDeleteThere's bull and bear etfs on Nvidia if anyone is looking at that stock
ReplyDeleteAlright I had said to beware the Ides of March and we saw markets drop on hot inflation report.
ReplyDeleteMarkets were spooked yesterday but to be fair these levels of inflation won't have much effect.
ReplyDeleteAs anticipated!
ReplyDelete"Trump can’t secure $454 million appeal bond"
NY getting ready to seize some of Trump's assets - wonder if that might be the trigger
DeleteBond cut to $175M and he has another 10 days to pay
DeleteNot sure if it will follow along with SPX, but NVDA kinda looks like an island top as well. Guess we are waiting on the Fed to see if this thing turns down soon.
ReplyDeleteNope Powell gooses the market even higher to 5225. Wonder where this train will stop - 5350?
DeleteMaybe a pause in the 5400s... this is getting insane
DeleteWell we know it will end badly. This is because inflation is rising again albeit slowly now. Market conditions and rate cut talk are leading to inflation blowout.
ReplyDeleteThe market has spoken and wants to make one more push before it corrects. I do expect a nasty correction is around the corner.
ReplyDeleteSC - do you think this is similar to Jan 2018 setup?
DeleteI see that similarity with the extended rally 2018 then selloff. In this case I don't think the selloff will be as severe (yet).
DeleteI still just consider a correction soon probably relatively shallow with larger selloff before the Election.
Maybe it will start pulling back next week after month-end window dressing lol...Oil up to 83, maybe getting close to an inflation spike?
DeleteSc... down to what level are you expecting it to correct to ?
ReplyDeleteFor this correction I'm thinking relatively shallow at least initially. However it could be the start of a deeper move.
DeleteBought LABU $138.10
ReplyDeleteWASHINGTON (AP) — Lawmakers introduced a $1.2 trillion spending package Thursday that sets the stage for avoiding a partial government shutdown for several key federal agencies this weekend and allows Congress, nearly six months into the budget year, to complete its work in funding the government through September.
ReplyDeleteLooks like they are trying to push the government shutdown closer to the Election!
ReplyDeleteDWAC deal approved! The newly merged company, Trump Media, could begin trading under the new ticker DJT next week!!!
ReplyDeleteDJT hahahaha
DeleteSc... the chart you had posted ... 5400 spx and then down to 3000 is that still valid ? It seems we got nesr there already vs middle of 2025...
ReplyDeleteSo what changes now on that chart ?
Or are we ready to decent to 3000 now instead of 2025 ?
SPX ran up and it is getting into the target range and yes still valid.
DeleteSo we'll have to watch. However, still it's too early to look for the bear market turn. We're getting there.
This is big picture so it takes time to form a major topping process.
Next bear will be vicious and we see markets are setting to experience a very bad year. 2025 is a good estimate but I agree with you we have to watch closely as this run happened fast. A lot of mortgages are about to get washed out.
DWAC big surge! The symbol should change tomorrow to DJT. Jumped off my $32 support and my next target $90. Deal is done!
ReplyDeleteBoom!
Delete"Trump’s net worth reportedly soars to $6.5 billion after media company stock jumps"
DJT spiking up as anticipated!
ReplyDeleteSC, what do you think about NDX?
ReplyDeleteNDX monthly does look strong possibly trying for 20,000.
DeleteOil chart coming next, most important chart!
ReplyDeleteThanks SC - are we getting close to an oil spike of some sorts? It is making its way close to 85 now...Seems this could weigh on markets
DeleteMarch was a disaster. Baltimore bridge catastrophe. Sam Bankman Fried fraud. Government disfunction.
ReplyDeleteSCMarch 5, 2024 at 7:04 AM
"Beware the Ides of March. March 15th.
"The Ides of March is a day that was on the Roman calendar and is most prominently known for being the day that Julius Caesar was assassinated—an event which many see as a turning point for the Roman Empire. However, it is also a day that has gained notoriety for being a day on which bad things happen. On the Gregorian calendar, this day falls on March 15th."
New chart posted!
ReplyDelete