XLE has been consolidating sideways for more than a year and looks to be working on breaking up through resistance. Middle East conflicts may be giving energy prices some lift in short term. Daily
Last year I had correctly called for runup in XLE early in the year and then the start of a consolidation period. Now energy looks good for another run. Middle East gives it a reason to do it.
How I think this can play out is that Oil prices and energy stock can rise into next year. Short term bullish but when recession hits the prices will come tumbling down again. So keep that in mind.
"Oil prices climbed to a two-week high on Wednesday on a bigger-than-expected U.S. storage draw and as rising tensions in the Middle East threaten to disrupt oil supplies from the region, with Iran calling for an oil embargo on Israel."
The problem for trading volatility now is that prices are swinging around and that means a lot of decay for both UVXY and SVXY. Both decay under these circumstances. Ok for day trading.
The 4.9 GDP is enough to keep the United States afloat a while longer. The country has been struggling to pay it's bills but this will give it a boost short term. Growth covers a lot of sins.
I'll post the SPX chart next with November plan. We saw an awakening for Volatility in October. I do expect larger spike in Volatility first quarter next year.
Bought GUSH $40.65.
ReplyDeleteLast year I had correctly called for runup in XLE early in the year and then the start of a consolidation period. Now energy looks good for another run. Middle East gives it a reason to do it.
ReplyDeleteHow I think this can play out is that Oil prices and energy stock can rise into next year. Short term bullish but when recession hits the prices will come tumbling down again. So keep that in mind.
ReplyDeleteGUSH has a golden cross on daily and will soon have the golden cross on weekly.
ReplyDeleteLast week ExxonMobil agreed to buy Pioneer for $60 Billion.
ReplyDelete"United Airlines tumbles 8% after warning pricier fuel, war in Middle East will cut profits"
ReplyDelete"Oil prices climbed to a two-week high on Wednesday on a bigger-than-expected U.S. storage draw and as rising tensions in the Middle East threaten to disrupt oil supplies from the region, with Iran calling for an oil embargo on Israel."
ReplyDeleteSC - Any targets for Oil/USO? Seems like oil could spike any time soon to 100+?
ReplyDeleteOil spike over $100 soon and then $100 becomes support.
DeleteCrude around $90 now and just getting started. Targeting $150.
DeleteWhen $150 ?
DeleteBy the Election November 2024
DeleteSC, Do you still think the market will go up into Nov?
ReplyDeleteHonestcreditguy, KUDOS to you. UVIX is heading for north! what's is your price target and timeline? Can you share?
SPX failed 4400. I had said 4410. Now making another bounce probably until month end Oct. November don't forget that US government is closing.
DeleteThe problem for trading volatility now is that prices are swinging around and that means a lot of decay for both UVXY and SVXY. Both decay under these circumstances. Ok for day trading.
ReplyDeleteGDP 4.9%. We haven't seen those kind of numbers in years. Generally that'll keep a floor under the market for now.
ReplyDeleteNotice UVXY down this week... SPX bounce looks likely next week.
ReplyDeleteThere we go! Called it last week. News was bad with Israel entering Gaza but we had signal last week for the bounce. Futures green!
DeleteThe 4.9 GDP is enough to keep the United States afloat a while longer. The country has been struggling to pay it's bills but this will give it a boost short term. Growth covers a lot of sins.
ReplyDeleteTypical daily chart SPX should rally a little more this week and then fall back next week.
ReplyDelete200 day average 4,240 resistance SPX
DeleteSC do you think next week we take out the last friday lows on spx ?
ReplyDeleteThanks
We've now seen the snap back rally that I had predicted last week. Next week SPX will lose some ground but the lows will hold in my opinion.
DeleteS&P 500 best day since May!
ReplyDeleteWill we go below spx 4000 next year first quarter Sc ?
ReplyDeleteI'll post the SPX chart next with November plan. We saw an awakening for Volatility in October. I do expect larger spike in Volatility first quarter next year.
DeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete