UVXY is rising and a move higher in volatility is underway. UVXY is about halfway to the target price and still has decent upside. SPX is dropping every day and VIX holding 30's, and that is pressuring UVXY and UVIX higher. Weeklies
After a 2 year resting period from the 2020 volatility panic I am commencing trading volatility again in a big way. I have the charts and plan ready for big profit.
I see volatility entering a new Cycle. This year UVXY has consolidated and that period is finishing with larger swings ahead. For now I'll trade these swings and larger whipsaws. Then later it will be ready for bigger likely VIX 75.
Holding UVIX. Volatility started to trend higher in August and that will continue for this swing. UVXY making a higher low. UVIX has more leverage than UVXY and so test of the low could be possible.
The VIX is right at the weekly 50 and that could provide support this week for VIX. The weekly VIX actually looks excellent with the VIX 50 rising sharply. Volatility is coming.
The SPX bounce does not impress me much and the weekly SPX is rolling over with 50 down sharply. However in this type of market it can gain very little for weeks then lose all the gains and more in 1 week when ready.
When in contango VIX futures etfs like UVXY and UVIX have to constantly rebalance at higher prices for futures. Therefore more decay. It flattens in January.
The analysis is totally understandable into the the Mid term elections--but I still remember Obama --never under- estimate Biden's ability to mess up a deal! Let's wait and see?
We are entering a more volatile period. I will be swing trading Volatility. Soon but want to see the contango settle. Charts look good. This is different though than 2020. Not one massive panic but it'll be a roller-coaster this time.
out of the upward channel--normally the first drop is always bought -no volatility yet but after the election ---things could get bad---let's see what happens--in the next 30 to 45 days --we should start seeing bigger drops - looks like the Fomc--went back to their mandate to control inflation---at any costs!
Actually --at the end of the day --I want to own some uvxy--and February SPY puts. This is still sell the rip ---not buy the dip---don't make sense--Apple is now worth --more then amzn -google and Meta----now that is consolidation ---how quickly the world changes---oil is above 90 again---and diesel shortage on the east coast-----Be careful!
It will be difficult to make money in short term in volatility with the VIX futures so steeply in contango into January. Nimble until then. 2023 big money will be made in volatility!
Collapse of BTC, FTC and Higher rates is leading to an event, either everyone runs to treasuries or money flows into equities, perhaps CD's, massive wealth being wiped out now....
maybe with new yr as SC mentions, hard to tell, the dollar is perhaps even blowing up countries
One of the clues here is how the 200 average on the UVXY weekly is way above the 50. With some time that will come closer together then we have the best setup for volatility spike.
The charts are coming into alignment but I am expecting a series of whipsaws first. Weekly and daily VIX are in a golden cross. Daily is choppy but weekly will remain in the golden cross.
We are seeing the conditions maturing for volatility.
So it's early but I am starting to trade swings as we get ready.
As we have seen recently the most leveraged and speculative companies go bankrupt first. Then it spreads into the more known names going bust later in the Cycle.
I don't trust the long side yet ---just oil ----/Cl----vix is the same place as last year right then January 15 came and we dumped -- Spy 400--close above --we test 200 DMA--Spy 406--Top of channel from January is Spx 4100---i will wait to Monday
breadth momo still pointing up, until it crosses a 10 day ema, shorting is tough...I could see vix getting a bit more washed out with sector rallies, then get in, one more push in this bear market and it probably is the meanest of all
I don't think the bear market is over but 2022 was a bad year and the market is now rebounding from those levels. This year the economy fell briefly into recession but I had stated that it was only temporary and the deeper recession would come later.
The only reason --oil is down --is Russian sanctions will be implemented on December 5----December 9 is rail strike proposal and Fomc meeting in the middle of the month--be careful--we may test below spx 3700 this week---political climates are not good!---short term analysis only!
Bank of America: "Roughly a year from today, the S&P 500 will likely have gone nowhere, strategists at Bank of America Global Research said in their year-ahead outlook published Monday."
watch this symbol tomorrow and thru end of year AVXL- the holy grail of CNS disease help https://www.anavex.com/post/anavex-2-73-blarcamesine-phase-2b-3-study-met-primary-and-key-secondary-endpoints
The powers that be-- need to hold the markets up into End of December---that is clear---but the spy below 270 on the weekly ---looks more then possible into February -we need to wait and see the catalyst that will cause this drop?
UVXY is approaching it's 50 Week average and is likely to spike above soon...
ReplyDeleteAfter a 2 year resting period from the 2020 volatility panic I am commencing trading volatility again in a big way. I have the charts and plan ready for big profit.
ReplyDeleteThank SC, I am expecting it to pick up big time this month
ReplyDeleteUVXY preparing to test the 50 week
DeleteDid you buy any yet????
ReplyDeleteStill some time to build the position
DeleteWhat are your UVXY target areas? 200 weekly average @ $179 would be nice !
ReplyDeleteYes the 200 Weekly will be the eventual target. However keep in mind that the average is sloped down and will be considerably lower when hit.
DeleteEven UVXY $90-100 is a 10 bagger....not greedy
Deletetake notice we are heading into bad times
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1580178508978225153/photo/1
sc,
ReplyDeleteTell us when your buying---the Uvxy or Uvix is very confusing --these reflex rallies are meant to do this. Vix is very controlled here!
Yes the chop shakes out people before larger moves.
DeleteAgreed! Vix is being suppressed. Fake out rally today and tomorrow (Oct14) No low until VIX spike in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteWhy 10/14? Why not until the midterm?
DeletePossible crash before midterms
DeleteAlso Golden Cross on Daily & Weekly VIX
Deletemid term ---elections are 11/8
ReplyDeletewe should go higher?
ReplyDeleteYou are right. No reason to go up but only Biden's will. The stock market seems the only tool he can use right now. He failed to stop OPEC's cut.
DeleteOutside reversal ---3 to days -up if algo is working!----Please notice----we are gapping up!
ReplyDeleteOutside reversal ---3 to 5 days up!
ReplyDeleteAccording to NY Post News paper--Biden's inflation controls are not working!
ReplyDeletesc--no entry on volatility yet?
ReplyDeleteVolatility increasing into November/December. This is orderly relatively speaking. After midterms and next year we'll see the disorderly.
ReplyDeleteDisorderly could be this next week. Today's close was ugly, GS has bad report and XLF might break down....
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteStill looking for Spy 238 ---end of month--adding more puts here --Hearing rumors that China and Russia creating a new currency--Here we go again!
sc,
ReplyDeleteStill looking for Spy 338 ---end of month--adding more puts here --Hearing rumors that China and Russia creating a new currency--Here we go again!
Volatility charts look very strong. VIX weekly has golden cross. Daily has joined with a golden cross.
ReplyDeleteUVXY daily is curling up and will have golden cross projected in November or December.
ReplyDeleteOpex on Black Friday, XBI is pointing out it could be a celebration repeat of 35 years ago
ReplyDelete"UK Prime Minister Liz Truss resigns after failed budget and market turmoil"
ReplyDeleteIt is clear the collapse of Europe is the reason for the incoming wave of volatility.
ReplyDeleteBought UVIX $12.64.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update SC.
DeleteWhat is your UVIX target? Can VIX finally break the ceiling at 35-37?
I see volatility entering a new Cycle. This year UVXY has consolidated and that period is finishing with larger swings ahead. For now I'll trade these swings and larger whipsaws. Then later it will be ready for bigger likely VIX 75.
DeleteI figured UVIX is halfway so far it went $8.5 to $15. So around $20 on this particular swing. Bigger later.
DeleteSc, What is your time estimate for the swing to $20 UVIX? Before or after mid-terms?
DeleteSwing high afterwards
DeleteTook profits CCL $8.20.
ReplyDeleteUVXY today hit 50 day average, very good!
ReplyDeleteSc, Are you still holding UVIX $12.64 or did you exit and re-enter on lower price? Can $8.50 low be retested before $20?
DeleteHolding UVIX. Volatility started to trend higher in August and that will continue for this swing. UVXY making a higher low. UVIX has more leverage than UVXY and so test of the low could be possible.
DeleteThe plan is UVXY making a higher low soon and then it'll make a higher swing high as volatility pops.
ReplyDeleteUVXY has a gap just under $10. That is the natural price to turn up. Good for $17.
ReplyDeleteUVXY close to filling gap today or Monday. $17 target still in play?
ReplyDeleteSc... you still think uvxy goes to 17 ?
ReplyDeleteI decided to stop out on UVIX at $10.16. Volatility is coming but it takes some time to get the right entry.
ReplyDeleteMy reasoning is as follows:
The VIX is right at the weekly 50 and that could provide support this week for VIX. The weekly VIX actually looks excellent with the VIX 50 rising sharply. Volatility is coming.
ReplyDeleteThe daily chart of VIX while in a golden cross is whipsawing though. I think this is signalling a timing issue.
ReplyDeleteThe SPX bounce does not impress me much and the weekly SPX is rolling over with 50 down sharply. However in this type of market it can gain very little for weeks then lose all the gains and more in 1 week when ready.
ReplyDeleteAnd finally I draw your attention to this chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://vixcentral.com/
I don't like how VIX futures are now in a steep contango into January. A disadvantage.
What do you mean?
DeleteWhen in contango VIX futures etfs like UVXY and UVIX have to constantly rebalance at higher prices for futures. Therefore more decay. It flattens in January.
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteThe analysis is totally understandable into the the Mid term elections--but I still remember Obama --never under- estimate Biden's ability to mess up a deal!
Let's wait and see?
Lol tommy
DeleteWe are entering a more volatile period. I will be swing trading Volatility. Soon but want to see the contango settle. Charts look good. This is different though than 2020. Not one massive panic but it'll be a roller-coaster this time.
DeleteThe gap on VIX is rather large with fill being 20.80
ReplyDeleteSC, Can we see vix 45 in the next weeks? gap open from 2020
ReplyDeleteNot likely until 2023 then yes
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteout of the upward channel--normally the first drop is always bought -no volatility yet but after the election ---things could get bad---let's see what happens--in the next 30 to 45 days --we should start seeing bigger drops - looks like the Fomc--went back to their mandate to control inflation---at any costs!
This week just looks like consolidation for SPX after October's gains.
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteActually --at the end of the day --I want to own some uvxy--and February SPY puts. This is still sell the rip ---not buy the dip---don't make sense--Apple is now worth --more then amzn -google and Meta----now that is consolidation ---how quickly the world changes---oil is above 90 again---and diesel shortage on the east coast-----Be careful!
I think SPX can be up a couple weeks here.
DeleteSPX 200 weekly at 3,618 may be tested again as support.
ReplyDeleteMarket with small gains. May be can trade some Volatility in a few weeks.
ReplyDeleteNice pop DWAC!
ReplyDeleteUVXY has filled September gap. But it may come down to test the $8 August low.
ReplyDeleteIt will be difficult to make money in short term in volatility with the VIX futures so steeply in contango into January. Nimble until then. 2023 big money will be made in volatility!
ReplyDeleteCollapse of BTC, FTC and Higher rates is leading to an event, either everyone runs to treasuries or money flows into equities, perhaps CD's, massive wealth being wiped out now....
ReplyDeletemaybe with new yr as SC mentions, hard to tell, the dollar is perhaps even blowing up countries
That sounds familiar ---with very little volatility!
ReplyDeleteOne of the clues here is how the 200 average on the UVXY weekly is way above the 50. With some time that will come closer together then we have the best setup for volatility spike.
ReplyDeleteJust a matter of time...
ReplyDeleteSC, the vix looks like going to 20, the spy look very strong this week
ReplyDeleteSC, Do you have targets at price and time for the spike of vix?
ReplyDeleteI was thinking we may see 75 VIX. That would be a lower high from 82 VIX in 2020.
Delete"CRYPTO" LOL
ReplyDeleteThat would put a lot of investors in the "crypt."
DeleteWhen 75 vix?
ReplyDeleteI would be interested in a Vix 75 trade too!
ReplyDeleteDo you have a price/time entry yet SC?
The charts are coming into alignment but I am expecting a series of whipsaws first. Weekly and daily VIX are in a golden cross. Daily is choppy but weekly will remain in the golden cross.
DeleteWe are seeing the conditions maturing for volatility.
So it's early but I am starting to trade swings as we get ready.
sc,
ReplyDeletetoo early to tell---we are running to the top of the channel ---200DMA
spx--4060 to 4100---we jump or collapse---very hard to tell---just a buy program!
ReplyDeleteInflection zone Dunn. The next 45 days will be interesting, end of year pump and dump..
DeleteDeena---Very true---waiting to see the outcome!
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1592584937294774274?t=rkLXgEWDHlBQa_nPYyw9vQ&s=33
ReplyDeleteBreaking Market News
AT LEAST TWO DEAD AFTER RUSSIAN MISSILES LAND IN NATO STATE POLAND ON UKRAINE BORDER - EXPRESS. https://t.co/7cywiazATA
Biden is basically a lame duck President with 2 years to go. It's going to be a wild ride.
ReplyDeleteTrump has announced his Presidential campaign. While I don't expect he'll be President come 2024, he'll gain strength and that will spice things up.
ReplyDeleteBut I'm not talking politics. What I'm saying is that with unstable leadership there's going to be increasing turmoil in the markets.
ReplyDeleteAs we have seen recently the most leveraged and speculative companies go bankrupt first. Then it spreads into the more known names going bust later in the Cycle.
ReplyDeleteThe cycle is just getting started I believe.
DeleteSc,
ReplyDeleteSpy 389--close below is bad for us
Spy 400--close above --we test 200 DMA--Spy 406
Happy thanksgiving to everyone!
DRIP hmmmm...
ReplyDeleteQuestion, does the DRIP turn into a selloff then the usual Christmas rally perhaps.
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteare you looking for a double bottom on drip????
Sc
ReplyDeleteI never thought Uvxy---would be under 8 again---are you still looking for any lower numbers---or will it split????
UVXY still in a very steep contango through December. Looks like it's heading lower.
Deletehttp://vixcentral.com/
just before Covid crash, does someone remember what kind of contango was there?
DeleteYes I remember the contango peaked in January and then the panic occurred soon after in February.
DeleteDWAC is a nice trader since Trump entered Presidential Election
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteI don't trust the long side yet ---just oil ----/Cl----vix is the same place as last year right then January 15 came and we dumped --
Spy 400--close above --we test 200 DMA--Spy 406--Top of channel from January is Spx 4100---i will wait to Monday
Happy Thanks-Giving
breadth momo still pointing up, until it crosses a 10 day ema, shorting is tough...I could see vix getting a bit more washed out with sector rallies, then get in, one more push in this bear market and it probably is the meanest of all
DeleteSC ... do you think the bear market low is in ?
ReplyDelete🐾🐾🔙🔜
DeleteIs oil going to $60?
ReplyDeleteIt seems so. Crude has been sliding. Probably the winter fears of oil shortage were overblown.
DeleteThe U.S. is ‘certainly’ still in a Covid-19 pandemic, Dr. Fauci says
ReplyDeleteSami,
ReplyDeleteI don't think the bear market is over but 2022 was a bad year and the market is now rebounding from those levels. This year the economy fell briefly into recession but I had stated that it was only temporary and the deeper recession would come later.
sc,
ReplyDeleteThe only reason --oil is down --is Russian sanctions will be implemented on December 5----December 9 is rail strike proposal and Fomc meeting in the middle of the month--be careful--we may test below spx 3700 this week---political climates are not good!---short term analysis only!
Goldman Sachs: "Stay defensive on stocks into next year, the bottom is not yet in"
ReplyDeleteBank of America: "Roughly a year from today, the S&P 500 will likely have gone nowhere, strategists at Bank of America Global Research said in their year-ahead outlook published Monday."
DeleteChina is tipping into recession the first since 1978. Already there is unrest. The Chinese don't appear to be able to handle even a recession.
ReplyDeleteThink of the tortoise and the hare. China the tortoise and USA the hare.
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteRumors are stating that today or tomorrow is a top--- i need to wait and see?
What a blow-off!
Sc how high do you expect the s&p 500 to go before we resume downtrend ?
ReplyDeleteThanks
The FED Pumped Up the Market Because they know there Data could be wrong-------be careful!
ReplyDeleteSPX could test the August high 4,400
ReplyDeleteWow!
DeleteBought RIG $4.14.
ReplyDeletewatch this symbol tomorrow and thru end of year
ReplyDeleteAVXL- the holy grail of CNS disease help
https://www.anavex.com/post/anavex-2-73-blarcamesine-phase-2b-3-study-met-primary-and-key-secondary-endpoints
sc,
ReplyDeleteuvxy----where is the bottom?
down 3 bucks in a month--makes me laugh!
For December the VIX futures curve is still too steep. No point fighting it yet
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteThe powers that be-- need to hold the markets up into End of December---that is clear---but the spy below 270 on the weekly ---looks more then possible into February -we need to wait and see the catalyst that will cause this drop?
SPX plunged off the trendline. Volatility however still relatively subdued.
ReplyDeleteCrypto tax loss season coming up. They didn't want to claim a gain but you know they will claim a loss lol
ReplyDeleteDRIP running a bit. I don't know if it has much legs but it was a good idea.
ReplyDeleteSc...
ReplyDeleteAny update with ocgn ?
Fauci retiring at the end of December, I think important timing.
DeleteI do like OCGN. Covid and flu season started this year in September, the earliest we have seen yet. The worst is ahead.
Just waiting for the Biotech to come around. It will be finished consolidating soon.
sc,
ReplyDeletebought uvix--at 6.25 yesterday--looming for 12 or better next week!
New charts posted!
ReplyDelete