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Sunday, November 8, 2020

VXX / UVXY / VIX - Volatility - Two Presidents Diametrically Opposite

With 2 Presidents heading in diametrically opposite directions, tensions are building for volatility. In recent years the market turns tend to occur near holidays, and this is because it is such a highly emotional market. The next holiday is Thanksgiving, and that is when the turn is anticipated to occur. Daily

114 comments:

  1. VXX, UVXY, and VIX are all at the support currently. A bump up in these is possible before they come down for the best entry.

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  2. The 2 trades I am positioning:

    1. Building positions in volatility. UVXY is getting to be inexpensive and has nearly retraced the entire Coronavirus spike.

    Notice UVXY has already moved above the orange line which has restricted since March.

    Mathematically at low prices UVXY provides very attractive leverage.

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  3. What price level are you looking for on uvxy to bottom abouts?

    Its hard to see it on the chart

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. ok cool and from here what price do you see the coming bounce this week to top out?

      Thank you

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    2. Because UVXY is at support it could bounce. There is a gap around $18 that seems possible.

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  4. 2. The other trade is a MAGA trade. Now is the time for the "Make America Great Again" trade. I build a position in KODK on any dips. It is going to be a beautiful thing!

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  5. One fact I have been watching and waiting and not once has VIX become oversold on daily in years. Not even before the Corona spike.

    VIX did get overbought at end of October on daily, and it does look that it will likely get oversold on daily soon.

    Weekly VIX remains strong...

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  6. It is a highly emotionally charged market which is perfect conditions for volatility.

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  7. And if you think Donald Trump is a lame duck President who will coast into the Inauguration you'd better think again.

    Trump just got jabbed with a hot poke straight from the fire. One of his books "The Art of a Comeback". He will want to reinforce his place in history and will work feverishly to do so.

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  8. Trump signifies money, capitalism.

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  9. Sc but in your chart uvxy from 9 to 18 is not much. For so happening with presidenxy

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    Replies
    1. Potentially 260% move for UVXY. It's all in the math.

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    2. Thanks SC, I'll take that any day

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    3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  10. One thing for sure if trump will go away. He will unmask lot of documents/corruption

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  11. Bought CCL premarket $17.50.

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    Replies
    1. Vaccine news!!! Hmmmm more data expected by Pfizer third week of November. That's Thanksgiving week!

      "Pfizer and BioNTech said, adding that there haven’t been any serious safety concerns reported yet.

      The companies said they planned to submit for emergency use authorization to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration soon after they have two months of data, which is currently on track for the third week of November."

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    2. Aligning with our Thanksgiving timing!

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    3. CCL likely to trade over $20 by Thanksgiving November 26th.

      Remember the ultimate target of $25 maybe in January.

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  12. Replies
    1. Yeah, I'm waiting for it lower to enter aggressively.

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    2. where do u looking to buy more? we still keeping the $21 and $20 positions?

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    3. May look to increase around $9 later this month.

      It can go lower, and should, but it's also low relative to where it has been earlier this year.

      So the bigger picture for UVXY looks good.

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  13. Sc u think top in spx around thankgiving

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  14. Took profit on CCL because I see the 200 day is at $18.62 which price will interact with today.

    Look to reenter on any dips.

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  15. Light or freight train lolol

    “I think we can see light at the end of the tunnel,” Pfizer Chairman and CEO

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  16. SPX at the upper blue fork resistance on the previous chart.

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  17. Replies
    1. Had bought oil stock because there was too much bad mouthing of oil stock. Oil stocks were cheap relative to the commodity.

      However, the sector remains out of favor. Oil stock could rally a bit but I think there are better trades. Free up the cash to take advantage of other opportunity.

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  18. I was thinking down into nov 13
    What a crazy manipulation

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  19. The S&P 500 and DOW have made all time highs today but not the Nasdaq Composite. The Nasdaq all time high is still 12074 back on Sept 2nd. This isn't good. If the Nasdaq can't make all time new highs when the S&P 500 and DOW are doing so that's a big warning sign! DANGER! DANGER! DANGER!

    This market has gone bonkers and I bought more shares of UVXY at $13.18. I'm not waiting for $9.00. I'm not sure it will trade that low.

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    Replies
    1. Noticed that also and yes Nasdaq weak relative to other indexes. We saw Pfizer come with positive news today, but one problem for the Nasdaq is that other vaccine stock results will be horrible cutting those vaccine stocks in half.

      So it's a total crapshoot (with bad odds) trading vaccine stocks at this point in my opinion. March would have been the time for that trade. I won't touch any vaccine stock at all.

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  20. And look at how little VIX is down today. Testing the orange line.

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    Replies
    1. VIX down 1 point! That tells you VIX is king.

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  21. SC, thanks for all this free blog.
    SC, I have a system (only one)... simple... but is in VIX.
    Well today enter in VIX at the open. But he have a DD about 33%!!! So caution.

    But I want help... what is most similar to buy, not VIX but other, to follow the system? VXX or UVXY?
    Thank you.
    I am try to post this trades... if you agree.
    But some times, because time in my Coutry, not always I could come.
    thank you.

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    Replies
    1. You are most welcome Manuel.

      By all means feel free to post trades signals and your system.

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    2. Welcome to the discussion.

      It's a little tricky because there isn't any way to trade VIX itself directly.

      All the VIX etfs are based on VIX futures. They are correlated. VXX is unleveraged so may be the choice.

      Test and see.

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  22. I am looking for 3625 sp < if break that level we are heading up to the 3680 level. I still have 2 long batches to unload. Will not look at uxvy until we see the 11.00 level.

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  23. Exiting one long batch. I still see much higher prices thou.Working within my own parameters, rules, discipline ect
    Bulls and Bears make money, Pigs lose out.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks SC. Not very impressive compared to you and gun gunslinger Louis with your trading. What took me close to two weeks, both of you would have done in two days.

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  24. VIX orange was solid at the orange today.

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  25. SC.. is it possible UVXY has bottomed?

    Sure looked like a blowoff top on the markets on good news....

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  26. Hurricane Eta

    "Fort Lauderdale Mayor Dean Trantalis called it a 100-year rain event"

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  27. Oh my...

    "States have until Dec. 8 to resolve election disputes, including recounts and court contests over the results. Members of the Electoral College meet Dec. 14 to finalize the outcome."

    SCOctober 18, 2020 at 7:30 PM

    "As for turn dates I have a couple minor dates end of November but the next turn dates I have are December 7th and December 16th."

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  28. Sc they cannot finish counting it time how will they do be dec 8

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    Replies
    1. January most important. But suspense will build into December.

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  29. Amazingly the dates have lined up with the turn dates generated before the Election by the time Cycle.

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  30. I think gold has bottomed. Will be buying lost of NUGT

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  31. Big volume on Carnival today. Was #1 stock today.

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  32. China had timed the Ant IPO for 2 days after the Election. They did this so that they could monitor the Election.

    When they saw what was happening in the Election the pulled the IPO.

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  33. Replies
    1. Carnival (NYSE:CCL) files to sell up to $1.5B of shares via an "at-the-market" offering.

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  34. KODK trading at $6.66. Earnings today.

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  35. VIX curve has shifted once again. Into January. Fairly steep contango.

    http://vixcentral.com

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    Replies
    1. VIX futures are getting more expensive going into January relative to VIX.

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  36. "Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla sold 62% of his stock in the company on the same day the drugmaker announced the results of its COVID-19 vaccine trial."

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  37. Vix cantaloupe means the gap between vix and vix future very steep, does it have to be narrow. Can u pl explain little what it telks

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    Replies
    1. For the etfs it means they have to pay a higher premium. So it is a disadvantage.

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  38. The criminals keep coming out of the wood work!

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    Replies
    1. Said as he blow out his stock. Sleezy isn't it. Great day for his pocketbook!

      “Today is a great day for science and humanity,” said Bourla, noting the data milestone comes with “infection rates setting new records, hospitals nearing over-capacity and economies struggling to reopen.”

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  39. Sc two developments 1. Ga hand count. 2 whistle bl. Fro. Dominion soft ware. Dontbknow where it will lead

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    Replies
    1. I don't think all this recount and litigation will lead anywhere. GOP is whipping up its base and raising funds for the key Senate races in Georgia. The transition will not be smooth but will eventually happen. Just my two cents.

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  40. If they have programmers from Dominion that will swear an algorithm was inserted to move votes from Trump to old Joe, then it is over. It did happen, seen the videos.

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    Replies
    1. in all fairness... almost 5 million more voting americans want Biden instead of Trump... this electoral system is messed up... few thousand people in middle of nowhere can decide the path for millions upon millions of Americans...

      lol

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    2. What is really cool is that over 200 years ago our founding fathers foresaw how harmful large population centers would be for elections. One has to represent the entire country, not just NY and Calif. Candidates need to convince those people in the middle of nowhere.

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    3. "One has to represent the entire country"

      Exactly.. the people...

      Why should geographical location of where a vote was cast undermine what millions upon millions of more people want?

      Its stupid

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  41. There was reason electoral college was put in place so the small states also have say. Otherwise just CA IL NY can just vote. Dems as well Republicans went through electoral college. But there was not problems as wide margin winners. Now country divided. They are not set for tight elections. We are not banana republic . They need to revamp voting system and counting

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  42. Sold last batch, enough to take my girl friend for a medi cure , pedicure and what ever cures women do. LOL

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  43. I am over all Bullish on this market. Waiting for a decent pull back to go back long.

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    Replies
    1. If the sp gets thru the 4580 by a few points, I will be jumping on Board to a run to 4650

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    2. I am with you plus 100 points

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    3. Joe, the only concern I have is They may ramp it up over night.

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    4. I have been in calls for a while, I figured they would close right under the ATH today so is could gap either way.

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    5. Like they did over Sundays night session.

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  44. Replies
    1. I am going to the side lines for now. Your looking good Louis with your shorts. G.L.

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    2. Completely out from the other day, waiting.

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  45. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kodak-executives-received-millions-stock-options-they-never-owned

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    Replies
    1. Thanks Louis!

      Yes apparently those options were for former executives. SEC is investigating.

      This is why it is for trading the ups and downs due to the controversy.

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    2. From the article:

      "Kodak shares went from "completely off the radar" to "number one momentum stock in the market" after it announced on July 28 it was nearing a deal with the U.S. to help become a generic drug manufacturer.

      As part of the deal, Kodak was to receive a $765 million loan from the U.S. government. Kodak stock soared, rising 15x after the announcement."

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    3. The weekly KODK chart is EXPLOSIVE.

      KODK has golden cross on daily and now the weekly is coming into alignment as well. The weekly golden cross is coming...

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  46. So you see what happened today. Market fear is that US will be locked down again.

    Well unfortunately for Biden's advisor Biden is not the President. Trump makes the decisions and said no already.

    So we can dispell that rumor.

    "Biden Covid advisor says U.S. lockdown of 4 to 6 weeks could control pandemic and revive economy"

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  47. Trump won. The End.


    Only problem will be the riots, so could be lockdowns for that instead of Covid.

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