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Thursday, June 11, 2020

$SPX - Summer Targets and Timing

SPX plunged off the June 9th turn date.  However, with June 12th turn date tomorrow a low is due.  Monday may be the best day for a low.

Then SPX likely to be choppy for several weeks as it consolidates for the next run.

Timing is suggesting heating up in later June, and into July 4th and July 15th then selloff into August 7th.

Daily

170 comments:

  1. Thanks sc. What u think the gaps below 2300 etc won't be filled thisvyear

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    1. The action will increase as we approach the Election.

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    2. We will talk about that plan, later.

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  2. ok thanks. It looks like from your chart 3030 bottom

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  3. With the timing Cycle working beautifully in conjunction with our charts I'll be posting option trades.

    The next one just in time for my birthday hehehe....

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  4. Cruel Summer!!!

    https://youtu.be/ZogE9W55heE

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  5. And your July target falls on my birthday!

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  6. Sc looks like 3000 is coming

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  7. SC thank you so much for these updates. Your timing is absolutely impeccable. It has been so helpful to me in my trading.

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    1. Thank you my friend! Glad you enjoyed it!

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  8. Sc some people showing vix broke from wedge it will just come back to touch breakout and go higher. What are yourvthoughts

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    1. No because there is no bottoming pattern on VIX.

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    2. Still on long way away.

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  9. this stupid tvix isn't moving as it should once again.. ugh

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  10. How about that turn date! Explosive!!!

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    1. Yes it was I was trying to get u to bug more off bottom I guess you have a plan to buy cheaper at least you made money

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  11. SC, I think VIX can still go up till 47 now. Based on your timing, it has still one or two days to reach there

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    1. Agree, yes it can although the bulk of this move is over.

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  12. That was a big/fast 2 days!

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    1. Yes! With the turn dates so tight together there was tremendous pressure on the market.

      I call these geyser trades. Like Old Faithful.

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  13. SC

    Are you expecting VIX to fill 20-22 anytime soon?

    Wondering if SVXY is a BUY here...?

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    1. Yes, 18 VIX is next target.

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    2. Let's see next week though. SVXY may be interesting for run to $38.

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  14. Sc now every one saying island top. Down down we go. But put call is still .45

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  15. Notice crude hasn't come off much. That's the first clue.

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  16. TVIX looks like it can run a bit further yet, but I am more interested in SVXY at $26 for run to $40.

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  17. SVXY putting in a higher low above the March low of $24.

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    1. Here's a chart from a while ago (updated now) https://imgur.com/a/6aFHbq5

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    2. Excellent chart! Thank you. SVXY tough resistance there for sure.

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  18. So sept so you calls strike 40 are .50

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  19. SC, looking at the VIX chart don't think VIX will come down to 18 in a near future. If it does than there is no hope for VIX and what basically it will be a death of any bear case

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    1. Volatility is in bull market for years.

      But we have VIX gap at 18 to fill first.

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  20. TVIX heading to $300 give or take. Same as shown on the TVIX chart.

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    1. on this run before the VIX gap fill?

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    2. Yes now. Quadruple witching next Friday.

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  21. U r expecting TVIX at 300 on June 19. Where will spx than. So why u sold tvix

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    1. Well should have reentered this morning TVIX at $160. I might still.

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  22. that means spx coming lower trend line 2800

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  23. Does VIX around 51 sound like the corresponding TVIX at 300 area?

    I see some noteworthy interactions there by next week

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    1. Sounds about right. The VIX chart shows resistance at 45 but it can overthrow that.

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    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    3. I have the same resistance area in the 44.6 to 45.4 range - VIX

      But above that is an open space to 49.8 based on a retracement of Sept 2019

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  24. Sc can ubplease clarify. 3080 r u expecting 2800. The lower trend line

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    1. 3000 then 3100 then 2900 thats how I see it

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    2. Lou thanks. Looks like vxx tvix made lower high on friday

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  25. Market dropping and uvxy out of whack

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  26. Almost looks like TVIX vxx made lower high

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  27. SC do you still see TVIX going to 300 or is that a wash now?

    Thanks

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  28. so 12th turn date not a low? when do u see TVIX $300?

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  29. Futures plunge... Monday as anticipated. We have turn date due therefore I will look to enter SVXY tomorrow.

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    1. The next series of dates are spaced closely which is why we expect whipsaws next.

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    2. Seriously, your going to short the VIX on Monday?

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    3. Yes, but just for short term (this week).

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    4. Kudos to you SC, I personally didn't make that move. I loaded up on SPXL premarket. That faired well, however my exit was around 2:00PM ET. Still good. I wonder where you opinion is on TVIX hitting a low and reversing? My opinion is July 1st to 7th.

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  30. Look to reenter TVIX likely later in the week. The four witches...

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  31. Markets will rip higher then drop

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  32. Silly question SC, is june 19th also a turn date? Thanks again (and to Louis and all the other contributors).

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    1. It's not a turn date in the timing that I use, but I do think it is important.

      Quadruple witching on June 19th. This date can be quite interesting not for a big turn but for a volatile whipsaw.

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  33. I have some critical lines crossing near June 22nd.

    Do you see anything around that time?

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  34. sc just to understand your thought: are you waiting for a climb to new highs of the S&p500 from today 12 june or you see a low for the three witches next Friday 19? so when you suggest to buy S & p for the run towards new high? Many thanks..

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    1. SPX put in a low today but we are probably going to see a few whipsaws next and possibly SPX could still see a little lower this month.

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    2. Yes, the bigger picture we are working on forming a low and rally into July.

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    3. SC: i see an "A B C" correction after 5 wave from the march bottom. In this moment i see the start of the B ( up wave) with a top that may be this week, and than down leg until early july. Than Rally to new high. Is this scenario in line with your thought?
      Many thanks 4 share your work.

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    4. Yes, that is consistent with my work. We're still working on a low, but yes higher in July.

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  35. Sc. Spx making lower low and vxx not making higher high

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    1. Bingo! Very good Rose!!

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    2. Thanks everyone, i learn a lot on these threads.

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  36. I'm ecpecting market to rip higher from low

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  37. This was a good short vol setup. I did. This morning I picked up SVXY and VXX $40 June 19 puts.

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    1. Wrte did you post your trade
      This is 4th time you did this

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    2. SCJune 14, 2020 at 6:28 PM

      "Futures plunge... Monday as anticipated. We have turn date due therefore I will look to enter SVXY tomorrow"

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  38. TVIX has filled gap from Friday and so I exited the puts. The SVXY I still hold.

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  39. Sc I also kept on looking. Saw u did not enter the trade . I think thats what louis is daying

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  40. I felt today was the best day. Was correct.

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    1. You're censoring all the things I'm saying I just don't think that's right

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    2. Try now, should be all good.

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  41. was looking also, see no trade, now all green

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  42. Just day trades guys. We will go through a series of whipsaws as we get ready for the next swing.

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  43. Sc so what u expecting.high around 3100 by friday

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  44. "The Fed says it is going to start buying individual corporate bonds"

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  45. SC are you still seeing 2902?

    Thanks

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  46. Futures spiking! Tomorrow good day to take profit.

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  47. So when will u buy puts or tvix

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    1. Within a week will reenter TVIX. Waiting for a washout first.

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  48. So, 2900 and 3100 this week, 3400 and 2400 next month, thats is the plan the best I can figure.

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    1. SPX bounce around this level. There is still more upside but it'll collapse to 2,900 within a week.

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  49. Sc whats the date for this top before we visit 2900 ?

    And then after that visit we go up to 3300+ ?

    Thanks

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    1. Next turn dates June 24th and then June 26th.

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    2. Quadruple witching on Friday.

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  50. So sc when r u expecting top of this cycle. Is it this friday

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    1. Probably see a few quiet days and then the action.

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  51. SVXY heading to test 50 dma $32.96.

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    1. Obviously 32.96 will come after
      The smash down June 24 26

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  52. Sc will u post when u sell svxy and buy tvix

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  53. Will post a schematic for volatility

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  54. Thanks. Sc. With dates will be helpful so people can decide on their own

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  55. There is a good chance we see 2900 next week

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  56. Sc what price are you looking to buy tvix ?

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  57. Just don't get. R u still expecting 3200 or so and when

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  58. Well the whole world calling spx 2700.

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  59. any updates? we still holding svxy?

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    1. Yes, we saw action on Friday, but not likely the start of a decline.

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    2. So are you saying you're holding svxy why still?

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    3. I meant to say still not why still

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  60. Credit Suisse to delist $ZIV, $TVIX, & $VIIX

    prnewswire.com/news-releases/…

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  61. Credit Suisse AG anticipates that (x) the NYSE ETNs will continue to trade on NYSE Arca up to and including July 10, 2020 and (y) the Nasdaq ETNs will continue to trade on The Nasdaq Stock Market up to and including July 2, 2020. The delisting of the ETNs will become effective on July 12, 2020.

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    1. Complete list - https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/credit-suisse-ag-announces-its-intent-to-delist-and-suspend-further-issuances-of-its-velocityshares-etns-301080971.html

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  62. They want to remove any tool i.e. TVIX etc which makes small people like us money..This world needs change in power..

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    1. Markets are likely to rip higher

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    2. Credit Suisse is exiting leveraged etfs in Gold, Silver, Natural Gas, and Volatility.

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  63. I know what many are thinking. They see the market calming and think the worst is over.

    The largest move this year is yet to come. I see it. The wheels are in motion. There's nothing that can stop it from happening.

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    1. Why would they do that explain it to me why would they get out Now

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    2. I'm not sure of your question Louis?

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    3. Largest move in volatlity up or down market higher what do you mean?

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    4. We have our short term plays which is the best way to approach to market currently.

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    5. The big picture a massive move has been identified this year. I am monitoring it, and waiting patiently.

      You will love this move Louis, and everything is making perfect sense.

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  64. Let's continue what we are doing though. The best strategy for now.

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  65. SC,

    your expecting a high on 6/24---then a turn on the 6/24

    Just to clarify?

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  66. Replies
    1. Two turn dates this week implies chop.

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  67. Sc every night they take it to 3080. Then futures are bought. Do u think market will top in early huly

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  68. Futures plunged and back up. A glimpse into the workings.

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  69. Next turn dates June 24th and then the 26th.

    It implies chop since they are spaced closely together.

    Expect SVXY to hit the 50dma at $32.89 and drop.

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  70. Sc r u looking for svxy to hit 32.89 or dates for top.

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  71. Navarro slipped. That is important.

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  72. Is today (Tues, June 23rd) the time to UVXY? It's really taking a hit now?

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  73. Sc vix won't come to 20 to 22

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    1. That's ok. VIX may need to cycle a few times before it gets there.

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  74. no mention of TVIX closing on July 2nd?

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  75. Best performing ETF of all time. TVIX RIP

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  76. Sc spx gives up 10 points everyone gets negative.

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