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Friday, May 22, 2020

$VIX - Gap Support

Markets are heading into a holiday week.  Typically this means quiet markets.

SPX is very weak, but also trading in a tight range.  VIX has orange rectangle support at 24 and a large gap at 22 which may be tested.

Daily Chart

136 comments:

  1. SC - when is the next turn date for SPX?

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  2. Are we going lower till June 9th or higher till June 9th ?
    Because your vx chart would suggest going higher on the spx ?

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  3. June 9th low.

    There is plenty of time to work with, and confidence it'll be a low.

    However, we have a 3,050 SPX target which has not yet been reached.

    SPX may see the target hit but expect selloff into June 9th.

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    1. What is your SPX target for the june low date? And what do you use to calculate turn dates?

      Thank you.

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    2. For the turn dates a timing Cycle.

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  4. Are you looking for TVIX $280 June 9th?

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    1. Let's wait until we see further action on the bottoming formation then we can more accurately calculate the target.

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  5. SC, why hold TVIX $185 if SPX goes 3050? are you looking to exit?

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    Replies
    1. It's a good point. I'm reviewing as well. It may make sense to step aside but the big picture for volatility is looking impressive.

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  6. It'll be a "W"... HAHAHA

    "Sure, the U.S. will see a V-shaped recovery, Kudlow said, but the “V” might not look exactly like a V. “You can have your own Vs. There’s Vs. There are lesser Vs,” Kudlow said. “There are combos of Us and Vs.” 

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  7. Sc... whats your downside target for the spx ?

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    Replies
    1. The picture is definitely getting bearish. Currently reviewing the charts and it looks very bearish. I'm looking at the numbers and will post targets soon.

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    2. SC - any update on this please?

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  8. Interesting that both the large VIX gap and VIX 50 weekly are both at 22.

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  9. Sc. Can u pl post road map for spx. Thanks

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  10. Are we going below the 2760 low by the June 9th ?

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  11. Sc vix down only .35. 22 to 24 vix. , we reach 3300 easily

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    Replies
    1. Let's see what happens next because VIX can move with very little movement in SPX under certain conditions.

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  12. And there it is... Notice how SPX gapped over the 3k resistance. Very typical.

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  13. I'm out of SPX this morning.

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  14. This is a big week for markets. Still waiting for NYC though.

    "The Mid-Hudson and Long Island regions are set to open Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, Gov. Cuomo confirmed Sunday"

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  15. Also this week. A decision is coming for Huawei executive detained in ankle bracelet. Extradition to the US.

    She has already taken victory photographs. There will be an obscene amount of cursing coming from China.

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    1. She's been held at a home about 20 mins drive from me here in Vancouver...

      There is a ton of high profile Chinese here .. my guess is there will be a high profile escape if the court decides to extradite her...


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    2. Interesting perspective, thank you. It's going to get ugly...

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  16. " The New York Stock Exchange said starting March 23, it will temporarily close its historic trading floor and move fully to electronic trading."

    Exactly when market bottomed.

    Well ladies and gentlemen, the whales are back as of today..... tic toc tic toc...


    IMO robinhood retail is about to learn a hard lesson very soon...

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  17. sold all uvxy i just keep trading this beast

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  18. 2997 line in sand i think boeing gonna wind up at 200

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  19. SC .. do you have a ball park on where you see the low for June 9th?

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  20. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McP0ipy3RQM&feature=youtu.be

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  21. SC - are you still expecting a lower low on SPX at some point in the future?

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  22. SC, are we close? It doesn’t seem like the VIX wants to go down.

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  23. 3,050 SPX has been hit!!

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    1. And whats that mean are u planing on doing something? Like maybe shorting

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    2. Hi SC, good call on this one. Is there are a chance to see 3100? Thx

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    3. Thank you! Rally looks to be running out of steam.

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  24. Looking good for a turn into the 9th of next month SC. What is the turn date in July?

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    Replies
    1. I'll post the chart soon with July turn.

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  25. We need a spx road map... some sort of an idea as to where we are going please...

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  26. SC, Are starting to buy here?
    Thank you for the great calls.

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  27. All is I know is they open the economy up the market's gonna rip to the up side

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  28. Market had an adverse reaction at that level.

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  29. Sc. People asking for your input. R u waiting for something. Still need vix 22 to 24

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  30. So what is more important? Price or timing? You had a price of 3050 sp which got hit, but I thought you had May 20ish as the high? I see June 9 you expect a low. At what price s&p?

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    Replies
    1. Both are important. In this case we had 3,050 target, and price has gone flat at that level.

      So the evidence is increasing that this is a high.

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    2. So June 9 is a high or low?

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  31. SC and Louis, thank you for the heads up, I was able to walk able to walk away with a profit.

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  32. Oil has hit the $35 target!!! Largest monthly increase in history!!

    SCApril 16, 2020 at 8:47 AM

    "The economy "reopens" Oil goes $35 bid instantly."

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  33. Curious, do you still believe that the VIX and TVIX will turn up around June 9th?

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    1. Let's see at June 9th.

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    2. I thought June 9th was suppose to be a high for the Vix?

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  34. Sc - this looks like the sentiment reversal we are looking for with the gap down on ES tonight?

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  35. The mood is darkened with 40 million zombies.

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  36. I thought we would top out on June 3

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    Replies
    1. Thank you Louis, i hope you're right. I have 3130 just itching to print at some point.

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    2. you might hit that 3130 plunge protection teamvix could drop
      Long uvxy 31.38


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  37. I'm looking for spx gaps to be filled to downside

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  38. We are gonna drop here this is irregular top

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  39. TVIX looking strong. Since May 11th SPX up some 170 points. TVIX down nothing.

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  40. SC... do you have a SPX chart as to where we are going?
    Would really help to have an idea of where things are headed

    Thank you

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  41. @sentimentrader · 2m
    The Nasdaq Composite is within 1.5% of its 52-week high after a 30% plunge (from a 52-week high). It's done this 4 other times.

    It took 13, 5, 2, and 12 days before it closed at a new high (it never failed). It added at least another 6% over the next 3 months every time.

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  42. Sc 3050 overtaken. R u looking for vix 20

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  43. Long tvix 126 long uvxy bought more
    30.25

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  44. SC, great call on the Vix. I’m getting excited!

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  45. This market is so rigged.Boeing up 6% they haven't sold a plane in months and probably won't for years.Todays plan for the ppt is to hammer the vix to keep the market from falling.

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  46. So much for tvix being strong.

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  47. Time to buy uvxy? Where do you see spx on June 9 low?

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  48. I think the asshat that was giving SC a hard time about oil has made SC not comment much anymore... :)

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  49. Louis...

    There is gaps at around 2300 spx
    Your saying even that one gets filled by July 10th ?

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  50. SC, some commentary would be nice. What is going on? On June 3rd you said "TVIX looking strong" but it's not looking very strong now.

    Since the close of June 3rd at $137.69 TVIX has fallen more than 20%. Really? What is going on?

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  51. We had a turn date May 21st and then June 9th. When there is such a wide distance between turn dates it leads to a trending move. In this case up.

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  52. The SPX and Oil targets have both hit, VIX target of 22 is close but not there quite yet.

    And so we wait...

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  53. SC, I’m waiting, but the break of $24 VIX is being very stubborn.

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  54. Sc vix 20to 22. Spx will be 3300 . R u expecting top on June 9

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  55. So June 9 is a high and/or until vix 22 is hit. Got it. What is the next date for a turn after June 9 and I'm assuming that date would be a low....

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  56. Sc is there significance of june 19th. Is is secondary top. This one guy has been saying 3266 June 19th top

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  57. So by 4th of July r u expecting new high

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  58. Sc r u planning to put spx road map. May be we r bothering u a lot . Well.

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  59. I'll look at SPX. I can tell you right now I'm looking to be short of Oil.

    In May SPX up 4%. Oil up 500%.

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  60. Sc. If oil is short the market short also

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  61. SC, SCO looks like a good opportunity.

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  62. any other turn dates you see in June after 12th?

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  63. Uso or uco will be a monster short
    Real soon I would think

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    Replies
    1. The Oil market is far out of balance.

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  64. Oil is the most compelling trade. Both short and long. The moves I am looking at are unbelievable...

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  65. SPX rallied in REFLEX move. Retail woke up after 10 years. Good! Now we have a real market with all participants.

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  66. Sc when are you planning to buy more tvix or your done with it?

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  67. Sc r u expecting new highs in spx

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  68. Are we still on target to 2375? If so, will it reach it at early July as expected or is pushed to August since June 9 turns out to a high instead of low?

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    Replies
    1. Panda, I think the bears are going to need patience. Let's review in July.

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  69. The next big trade has been identified and will be posted with charts and details shortly.

    If you liked the 2,600% TVIX run and 500% Oil move that followed it, you will love the trade coming next.

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  70. Great, I am indeed a big fan of big moves ;)

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  71. That’s music to my ears.

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  72. thanks, looking forward to it

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  73. Notice VIX and TVIX were up yesterday. That was the "tell" for today's gap down SPX.

    It's coming right on the turn date. The dates continue to be accurate!

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  74. So what is turn date. July 4 ?

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    1. The next turn date is June 12th. Friday.

      So likely to see only a short quick pullback here.

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    2. We got to get at least 3050 on a move down and then up and then down hard into July that's what I'm thinking

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    3. Since the dates are accurate I guess the low beyond July 2nd should be a big one

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  75. Pluge protection team at its finest

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  76. These gaps gotta be filled to downside eventually

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  77. Replies
    1. There's a better spot I have in mind for TVIX.

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