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Friday, January 24, 2020

SVXY - February 4th - State of the Union Address

As expected Davos marked the turn, and SVXY dropped to test support today.

Because it is an election year, generally, the most important turn dates will be marked by political events.

The next such event is coming on February 4th.

60min Chart

52 comments:

  1. Thank you Louis! Thank you as well. We all work together.

    ReplyDelete
  2. im looking for a big move up next week shorted tvix at 45.5

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  3. Notice as soon as the VIX futures curve normalized, the selling intensified.

    It's all about volatility!

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  4. The curve flattened and the result was the largest one day drop for SVXY since August of last year.

    More than a month of gains lost in one day!

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  5. Still have to take into account whats happening with this virus in China.They are not building this new hospital in 6 weeks because this thing is contained.All the curves and charts wont mean a thing if on the weekend,100 dead and thousands infected.Tvix will open at $60

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yup. This could be the catalyst for a much needed correction

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    2. They have now stepped up the hospital to open Feb. 04.
      Two weeks to build a hospital.Not good?

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    3. SC do we get more downside now?

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  6. February 4th?! That's our turn date!!!

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  7. I don't see much selling left now, more later....

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  8. We are in the business of selling complacency and buying fear.

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  9. We will see the low by Wednesday.

    "President Trump will sign the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement at the White House on Wednesday, the White House confirmed."

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  10. Modeling suggests that Wuhan infections could go exponential by February 4th.

    The author predicts the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February 191,529 new infections per day.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/DrEricDing

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  11. on the other hand, so far half of the deaths occurred with people 80 years old and older. Most young people recover quickly.

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  12. Yes, the mortality rate is not high, but the problem is in the rapid rate it spreads.

    If the RO is 3 then one person infects 3 others:

    1
    3
    9
    27
    81
    243
    729
    2,187
    6,561
    19,683
    59,049
    177,147
    531,441
    1,594,323

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  13. Sc u expecting high. 3380 or s . Than what

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    Replies
    1. 3330 SPX then it'll plunge.

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    2. Are are your looking at a 5-10% correction?

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    3. No, we won't even see that yet. This is only the first dip.

      We are reaching the pinnacle of stupidity. People will continue to rush into stocks against all common sense.

      Delete
  14. "The mayor of Wuhan, the city at the center of the viral outbreak, said on Sunday that there could be about 1,000 more confirmed cases of the mysterious illness in the city — a sign that the country’s monumental efforts to halt the disease may only just be starting.

    In a news conference, the mayor, Zhou Xianwang, said that the estimate was based on the assumption that around half of the city’s nearly 3,000 suspected cases of the coronavirus would eventually test positive for the disease."

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  15. If the death is correct... I have some doubts.... the rate is more or less 3%, so it is equal to a normal flu.
    Some of person that do a cycles, sugest that this and others epidemics are maximum in 2022.
    Sc,
    thanks for some sugestions here.
    But, can you put sugestions for Crypto. Now I am trading BTC during this year and next, or midle the next year... after I am out, and return ot normal trading. BTC rules... now. I expect. It is more, for me, diffcult trading this markets.
    But, I have some indicators that we are so far a crash. If some one do long trades I can put some sugestions to SPY, if SC permit.
    And trade VXX and UVXY it some dificult to me, but using this SC and some indicators,,, not so good, but nobad. If SC want I can weekly put some sugestions during a year.
    thanks fora all. Note: I am a simple trading with a litle account. A litle, but in the lasst 2 years I am test and anootate, not trading.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you Manuel. Bitcoin formed the "W type" bottom as expected and has been rising. I had suggested 10,000 as a target currently 9,000.

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    2. Yes, by all means please post ideas and suggestions for SPY or VXX/UVXY.

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    3. This year and next year are interesting timing for sure!

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  16. I dont understand. Can u give a road map. R u expecting lower high. Or higher high

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  17. If 3330 u r expecting lower high. Than plunge to 3050 . Some expecting 3050 to 4500

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  18. Excellent! Our first target is hit already. We may see a lower target of $58 SVXY February 4th.

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    Replies
    1. That would bring TVIX up to 66 bucks why the h*** would you Sell it or you look at the buy it back at a cheaper cost

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    2. Futures down sharply. SC your February 4 turn date may be coming earlier than you thought!

      Delete
  19. Are we still headed to 70 svxy in a week? Thanks.

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    Replies
    1. No, but there will be a strong bounce this week. I'll update the chart.

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    2. SC - how high are you expecting on SPX - gap fill on futures at 3291 or higher?

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    3. Yes, we should see that not much higher,

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  20. The best trade is yet to come.

    Just wait. Don't chase. SVXY is trading around the 50 dma support.

    Plan to short Wednesday or Friday for a large move down to February 4th.

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  21. We are just seeing the first dip. That is why it recovered. The market is just starting to expand it's trading range. SVXY should see a lower low by February 4th.

    Yes, still expect $70 SVXY later February.

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  22. In February, the authorities will probably state that coronavirus is "contained" to China.

    Of course, that is when we will look to short for the second larger drop.

    ReplyDelete
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