SPX advanced with three weekly bars, but last week it gave a bearish signal when we look at the last bar. The bar was the weakest, and closed Friday down with an inside day.
This week, SPX will probably drop to erase last week's gains, and test gap support as shown.
I had warned that an event was about to happen, and suspected Iran. We have now seen that result. Saudi Arabia has been massively attacked, the largest in 29 years!
Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, has been hit with devastating losses which has impacted the global oil supply and markets.
Looks like USMCA still not ready... oh well, market to drop first.
"House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Tuesday that Democrats aim to get to a place where they can approve updates to the North American Free Trade Agreement, but still have concerns about enforcing the deal."
Uvxy and tvix will rip higher vix up tvix and uvxy down we will test july lows there are two gaps in spx to fill sept 4 to 5th 2940 and 8 28 gap on dasily chart 2888
I'm out as well. I do NOT understand what happened today. And if I don't understand something - I get out. I doubt I'll ever use UVXY again. I'm surprised there was not more explanation.
The only thing that makes sense is that the overnight monthly resettlement of the VIX jumped the VIX Futures to over 17. The UVXY is composed 60% of VIX Futures. SO: if the fund had to pay more for those October options, it may explain why the UVXY never made it out of the red until after the FED announcement. I still don't fully understand it.
we had on a daily chart 9/25/2019 pink arrows we hsd another pink arrow engulfing pattertn 3/4 2019 march 19 2019 april 17 2019 and recently on august 22 each move was overe 8 points most were over 10 points up there was only one pink engulfing arrow that happened april 3 where there was no move but eventually it came april 17 look at pink arrows below in my chart
I had warned that an event was about to happen, and suspected Iran. We have now seen that result. Saudi Arabia has been massively attacked, the largest in 29 years!
ReplyDeleteSaudi Aramco, the state oil company, has been hit with devastating losses which has impacted the global oil supply and markets.
Thanks as always for keeping in the loop SC.
ReplyDeleteWhat's shocking to me is that after a bombing like that in Saudi Arabia that the spx not down 50 points
ReplyDeleteOil shares spiked initially which countered the fall in other shares, but the damage to momentum has been done.
DeleteFutures traded down to the 2,990 identified last week. Bounce around and down to the 2,975 SPX.
ReplyDeleteSC, what's the UVXY target for this SPX drop?
Deletesc i think we pop up 50 points from here into wednesday to 3050
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DN7iV5xaRdM
ReplyDeleteThe 2,990 hit exactly yesterday. It won't be able to hold.
ReplyDeletehope your right i have a huge position
DeleteLooks like USMCA still not ready... oh well, market to drop first.
ReplyDelete"House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Tuesday that Democrats aim to get to a place where they can approve updates to the North American Free Trade Agreement, but still have concerns about enforcing the deal."
SPX is constricted by the upper trendline pushing down and the moving averages pushing up.
ReplyDeleteWhat happens in these cases is that the moves become more violent as the pressures build.
Pessimism is taking over. The market will become unresponsive to the jawboning of meetings, discussions, lunches or telephone calls with China.
ReplyDeleteVIX runup as it approaches options expiry this Friday, September 20th.
ReplyDeleteAre you looking to go long SVXY Friday to S&P 3050?
ReplyDeleteLet's do an assessment later in the week. It may be too risky at this point.
DeleteI think I’m safe saying that we’re all risk adverse (except Louis, just kidding Louis), so that sounds like a good plan.
ReplyDeleteRemember what happened last time the Vic's explode to the upside and so did the market
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kn6fUXkGTjs&feature=em-uploademail
ReplyDeletelol this piece of crap going down when market going down
ReplyDeleteAt one point the VIX was up over 3% shortly after the market opened. Both UVXY and TVIX were (and remain) in the red.
ReplyDeleteUvxy and tvix will rip higher vix up tvix and uvxy down
ReplyDeletewe will test july lows there are two gaps in spx to fill
sept 4 to 5th 2940 and 8 28 gap on dasily chart 2888
so SPX down and VIX up almost 5%, and UVXY still red
ReplyDeleteIt's just this stupid quadruple witching on Friday. It doesn't matter though.
ReplyDeleteVIX is holding above the 200 weekly. The golden cross is inevitable. Soon both daily and weekly VIX will be in positive alignment...
Ya I'm pissed. I play HUV.TO, same thing. Lost 2.5% in a few days compared to value 3 days ago
DeleteIt's annoying.
DeleteBoom!! VIX takes out Monday's high.
ReplyDeleteJust like that bamm
DeleteWhat happens when the Vic's drops is this UV XY gonna get slammed in the face
ReplyDeleteVIX may be heading for 17.
DeleteBut maybe so. Let's see it play out. It may make sense to step aside at some point. We will see about that.
DeleteBig scam
ReplyDeleteBought more at bottom
ReplyDeleteSVXY most likely heading down to $53.
ReplyDeleteFed getting steamrolled!
ReplyDeleteim out!!!
ReplyDeleteim gonna sit and watch
ReplyDeleteI'm out as well. I do NOT understand what happened today. And if I don't understand something - I get out. I doubt I'll ever use UVXY again. I'm surprised there was not more explanation.
DeleteDon't say something ridiculous like that you can make a lot of money when UV XY also shorting UV XY when it makes a big pop so don't say that
DeleteAlso when you're buying 40 50000 shares I made money with that transaction because I bought at the bottom
DeleteThe only thing that makes sense is that the overnight monthly resettlement of the VIX jumped the VIX Futures to over 17. The UVXY is composed 60% of VIX Futures. SO: if the fund had to pay more for those October options, it may explain why the UVXY never made it out of the red until after the FED announcement. I still don't fully understand it.
ReplyDeleteIf you look at the 5 minute chart on September 12 looks exactly the same as today that's why sold it I'm gonna buy It back
ReplyDeleteWell played louis
ReplyDeleteVIX will hit 13.20 soon
ReplyDelete3030 then down hard
ReplyDeleteUVXY wants to test the July low $23's. Fine. It'll be trading in the $28's soon.
ReplyDeleteThat's a long way from the $45 indicated on your
DeleteAugust 22 chart. Are you altering, refining your projections for UVXY?
I agree Oct 2nd?
DeleteVIX/UVXY/SVXY - all building negative divergences over last few weeks on the 1H chart...reversal is near...SC when do you expect SPX to bottom?
DeleteI'll do an update of the 2019 model which continues, it just works. Target the same. The chart above worked well this week also.
DeleteWith this week's action the market bought itself a little more time which is okay.
I meant to say 3050 is a possibility
ReplyDeleteYes
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjAQmbRSvk4
ReplyDeleteSC, we were looking for 2975, SPX low was 2978 yesterday, do you see that maybe it? still holding my UVXY
ReplyDeleteYes, I agree.
Deleteso u see higher still short term, 3050?
DeleteYes, I do
DeleteSc is there a point you will average your position down and what price would that be 21 22?
ReplyDeleteSVXY may finally get overbought. It didn't get there in April nor July highs.
DeleteSo that may be what we are waiting for at this point.
volatility in a short term freefall
ReplyDeletehttps://youtu.be/YcSf1pMWg-c
ReplyDeleteIm wondering if uvxy could hit bottom line
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/aBRhqWY
long uvxy 23.10
ReplyDeleteI'm out uvxy 23.60
ReplyDeleteSPX selling to extend into next week. UVXY back to $25.
ReplyDeleteSPX support 2,950, likely to be tested next week.
ReplyDeleteThe neg/pos divergences on UVXY/SVXY/VIX suggested a much larger topping pattern...this is only the start lol
DeleteWe're about to see something really special...
DeleteThere's the $25. Thanks to the 4 witches!! Hahaha
ReplyDeleteLike magic!
DeleteWe saw the test of $23's and $28 UVXY comes next.
ReplyDeleteSCSeptember 18, 2019 at 1:01 PM
"UVXY wants to test the July low $23's. Fine. It'll be trading in the $28's soon."
China!!!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDrfE9I8_hs&t=9s
bought more at the bottom this morning, sold 25.66
ReplyDeleteNicely done!
DeleteME TOO
DeleteMY POSITION IS CASH I WANT TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS MONDAY JUST GOT RID OF ALL
DeleteTHERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SPX POP ON MONDAY THEN DROP
DeleteTHATS WHY I AM WAITING
always take profits on pop with this monster
ReplyDeleteWhat a close! Beautiful!!
ReplyDeleteYes it was!
ReplyDeleteGreat call, thank you.
I was a little worried this morning.
Looking forward to your updated 2019 model.
ReplyDeleteIt was very helpful and spot on.
long uvxy at 29.67
ReplyDeletei meant to say 24.67
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjAKBq1cMRQ
ReplyDeleteuvxy is looking like april 17th
ReplyDeletewe had on a daily chart 9/25/2019 pink arrows we hsd another
ReplyDeletepink arrow engulfing pattertn 3/4 2019 march 19 2019 april 17 2019 and recently on august 22 each move was overe 8 points most were over 10 points up there was only one pink engulfing arrow that happened april 3 where there was no move but eventually it came april 17
look at pink arrows below in my chart
https://imgur.com/a/2jsnhF2
Thanks for the insight.
DeleteI also forgot to mention we have another pic in golfing on September 20th 2019 4 days ago
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_uoMjknwEKw&feature=em-uploademail
ReplyDeletesc is your target 28 or is it 27 now?
ReplyDeleteim out of uvxy 25.95
ReplyDelete2960 probally then 3050
ReplyDeleteUVXY chart is coming! Target is $30 but plan to be conservative and exit $28 or $29.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we are about to get our fireworks with the trump impeachment on deck lol!
DeleteThe plot thickens, haha!
Deletetrump will never be impeached!!!
Deleteonly by the house louis lol, it will never pass the senate of course. long live trump!
Deletesold tvix 14.15 and covered my svxy short 53.20
ReplyDeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete