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Wednesday, July 3, 2019

SVXY - Leading lower

SVXY has retested the April high yet it has no strength to test the September 2018 high.

It is clear that SVXY is leading lower.  SVXY is close to the important blue line resistance, and sideways price action is likely to mark this high.  Resistance is just above with a confluence of support showing at $46 later this year.

Daily

105 comments:

  1. so no big spx drop until September? uvxy $50 target is December?

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    1. I have SPX peaking in the middle July. Earnings start on July 15th and Mueller testifys on July 17th. Those are the dates to watch for the peak. SPX needs about another 50 points higher to get overbought.

      So it's all down for SPX starting middle of July, and it will lose quite quickly from there. By the end of July SPX 2,900. August looks choppy as the downtrend builds. The biggest drops in September, October, and bottoming November 2,600's.

      So the picture is very bearish and we're almost at the tipping point!

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    2. happy 4th my friend What does that mean for uvxy if we go 50 points up i guess volatility will go up because big boys wanna hedge? or are we gonna have to average down


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    3. Happy holidays, and 4th!

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    4. UVXY probably will edge lower just a little, but we have seen many examples recently when it doesn't dip with SPX. Yes, there is hedging, and it is quite telling when UVXY behaves this way.

      Certainly plan to be fully loaded with shorts by the middle of July.

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    5. SVXY not quite at the blue line so yes UVXY should see a little lower.

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  2. Mueller testifying in 13 days. Countdown to the impeachment.

    No China deal this year, we're looking at the year 2020. There's no incentive whatsoever on either side to negotiate. Ran out of time for this year.

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  3. We're going to see just how bad things are on July 17th when the stock market plummets 150 points to kickoff the drop.

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  4. And the money flow goes where?... from a 1.95% 10 year yield.
    We are going up with 3% pullbacks for remainder of year.

    "Be Careful
    June 27, 2019 at 7:46 AM
    S&P to 2996 soon. I admit it's possible we hit 2886-2889 Sunday night to complete drop."

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  5. Replies
    1. Wait until middle of July for the best entry.

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  6. As the tanks roll through Washington, DC.

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    1. Yes. SVXY should hit the blue line and flat top will wear on UVXY a little as it forms.

      So it's best to have patience as we wait for the bulls to load themselves up with shares at the top...

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  7. wondering if uvxy gap will be filled 31?

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  8. i make more money shorting every pop in uvxy!!!!!!!

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  9. SC, what $ are you looking to buy back UVXY?

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  10. Bitcoin will hit 14200, also 16500.

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    1. manipulation is hard to detect!!! when that comes down it gonna hurt people

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  11. SVXY has given indications that the "flat top" is the most likely topping pattern. As a result that'll wear down UVXY with decay. Estimate that the flat top will take until end of August to complete.

    What that means is that the best entry to hold for a big move is due late in August. I think $20 or under looks possible for UVXY with $50 target.

    Having said that UVXY will be good for short term trades soon, later in July for a nice shirt term pop.

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  12. SPX is weaker and it'll top this month, in July, drop for 4 months.

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  13. This rally is going to be insane. Shocking.

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  14. SPX is like watching paint dry, but you know the old saying "never short a dull market".

    This does apply at least in the short term. Earnings later in the month will make it more interesting...

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  15. Two worst case scenarios:

    Bad earnings = 2926
    Trade war worsens = 2873

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  16. looks like svxy coming close to top
    https://imgur.com/a/IcJcKrM

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  17. From what I've read lately, trading UVXY in an IRA is subject to UBTI (unrelated business taxable income). If I'm understanding this correctly, your IRA will be taxed for trading UVXY. I'm no expert in this area, but I thought I would pass this on. I'm looking at SOXS as an alternative for IRA trading.

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  18. With the plunge in Bitcoin, SPX won't be far behind.

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    1. sc at what price are you getting in on uvxy 22?

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    2. We're likely to see lower lows for UVXY into late August but yes it's almost low enough to look at for short term pop. Maybe next week.

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  19. Watch the weekly bars on SPX for the reversal.

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    1. SPX likely flat this week.

      The reversal is coming though, as soon as next week. Watch for the price rise then reverse to close down on a weekly bar.

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  20. Bitcoin has been trading around the mid fork. It's having a bad month and it's going to get worse.

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  21. SC, spx drop started already or still next week?

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    1. so another new ATH then the big drop?

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    2. This week, SPX is flat, not much going on price wise. Yes, SPX should pop up and reverse sharply on a weekly bar to signal a new downtrend. Not happening this week but soon.

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  22. Not the reversal yet, but it is getting close...

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  23. SC, take a look to July 1999 (20 yrs ago)...

    https://imgur.com/a/N42gKZ0

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  24. "WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Wednesday was again trying to referee an intra-party struggle among her Democratic colleagues over whether to take steps toward impeaching Republican President Donald Trump."

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  25. Although the impeachment drum has begun to beat, there is one positive on the horizon, ratification of the USMCA.

    Stock market peak likely to coincide with this event.

    "MEXICO CITY — Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Tuesday he will tell a delegation of U.S. lawmakers visiting Mexico later this week that the USMCA trade deal is important for the region, and he called for its ratification by the U.S. Congress."

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    1. sc uvxy short term target still 20?

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    2. In that case it could be pushed until September: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/10/trump-white-house-likely-to-send-usmca-trade-deal-to-congress-after-sept-1.html

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    3. Many events are lining up in September. Debt ceiling in September as well.

      "Conservative estimates from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin say the U.S. could lose its spending ability as early as September."

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    4. It still looks like the peak is coming in late July for SPX.

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  26. UVXY will likely be ready for a pop late in July, a few dollars lower and then $5 pop, but will still put in lower lows into late August, and yes under $20.

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  27. Intra-year gain will probably be 25% = S&P 3167. I don't think the drops get below 2940 for July. Also, 2873-2889 will hold for months.

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  28. Mueller hearings scheduled for next Wednesday.

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  29. Francis Bussiere @AstroCycle_Net
    ...Solar Highs and Lows can spell trouble as this chart of Solar Cycle and Recessions shows. The 1974 low, 1987 crash and 2008 crash were all Solar lows, but the 2000 Bear was a Solar High. Right now we are at a Solar Low and the possibility of a Bear and/or Crash exists.

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  30. SC, if I’m understanding you correctly, at the end of July, S&P will peak (long term shorting opportunity), but UVXY won’t hit its low till end of August / beginning of September. Did I summarize that correctly?

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    1. Yes, that is right. SPX is approaching a peak soon. I am waiting.

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  31. Hello SC with the dump of yesterday changes the program on SP500?
    Thanks

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    1. We're getting close. On the weekly last week was down but it didn't break.

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  32. SC - Has SPX peaked in your opinion - we are nearing the end of the month? Are you scaling into UVXY yet? Thanks!

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  33. SVXY has a little more upside to go. It'll turn at $59. UVXY ~ $22.

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  34. It's simple. When SVXY hits $59, it's time to enter UVXY for a trade.

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    1. The best Trade on UV XY was a short this PIG on June 3rd

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    2. UVXY $22 to $27. Once SVXY hits $59 it'll fall to gap support at $55.

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  35. For silver, where do you see the peak?

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    1. My hunch about Silver proved correct. Silver spiked and just had it's best week since 2016.

      SCJune 25, 2019 at 8:29 AM
      "For those that really want to chase after the last little bit of this Gold rally, Silver may pop better short term, but Silver is extremely weak and should hit $10 on the next down leg into 2020."

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    2. The reason I had suspected Silver was about to spike was because the Gold rally is finishing. Silver had to catch up to Gold, and it did, which confirms that the Gold rally is in the late stage. Silver may see $18 roughly.

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    3. I've been betting opposite of your gold and silver calls, its not your cup of tea...

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  36. SVXY is determined to reach $59, which was the September 2018 peak.

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    1. Looks like SVXY/SPX reversing now off your $59 target!! Let's see how the week closes for that reversal candle

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    2. I like the price action at $59. Strong reaction.

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  37. There we are, within striking distance now!

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    1. SC - are we waiting for one more pop in SPX to 3030-50? or is it time to get short?

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    2. pure manipulation they know dbank is going down and they are trying everything to hang on to this fabricated market.

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  38. Deutsche bank, Boeing, Tesla.
    All toast, more to follow.This is going to be a nightmare.

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  39. SC, what is your spx outlook for August?

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    1. Because there is so much noise on the daily, we've been watching the weekly bars for the reversal. It's proven to be the correct strategy.

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    2. The reversal is coming, this week.

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  40. SC any updates on Bitcoin? thanks

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    1. Bitcoin had a bad month as expected. It hasn't quite traded into our 8k target but it's getting close...

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    2. SC, for GBTC, it says it doesn't use 1099B, do you know what form they use? Thank you!

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  41. The chart that nobody is watching is going to be posted later today.

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  42. Sc you are looking for 22 this week uvxy still?

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