It is clear that SVXY is leading lower. SVXY is close to the important blue line resistance, and sideways price action is likely to mark this high. Resistance is just above with a confluence of support showing at $46 later this year.
Daily
Wednesday, July 3, 2019
SVXY - Leading lower
SVXY has retested the April high yet it has no strength to test the September 2018 high.
It is clear that SVXY is leading lower. SVXY is close to the important blue line resistance, and sideways price action is likely to mark this high. Resistance is just above with a confluence of support showing at $46 later this year.
Daily
It is clear that SVXY is leading lower. SVXY is close to the important blue line resistance, and sideways price action is likely to mark this high. Resistance is just above with a confluence of support showing at $46 later this year.
Daily
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so no big spx drop until September? uvxy $50 target is December?
ReplyDeleteI have SPX peaking in the middle July. Earnings start on July 15th and Mueller testifys on July 17th. Those are the dates to watch for the peak. SPX needs about another 50 points higher to get overbought.
DeleteSo it's all down for SPX starting middle of July, and it will lose quite quickly from there. By the end of July SPX 2,900. August looks choppy as the downtrend builds. The biggest drops in September, October, and bottoming November 2,600's.
So the picture is very bearish and we're almost at the tipping point!
happy 4th my friend What does that mean for uvxy if we go 50 points up i guess volatility will go up because big boys wanna hedge? or are we gonna have to average down
DeleteHappy holidays, and 4th!
DeleteUVXY probably will edge lower just a little, but we have seen many examples recently when it doesn't dip with SPX. Yes, there is hedging, and it is quite telling when UVXY behaves this way.
DeleteCertainly plan to be fully loaded with shorts by the middle of July.
SVXY not quite at the blue line so yes UVXY should see a little lower.
DeleteMueller testifying in 13 days. Countdown to the impeachment.
ReplyDeleteNo China deal this year, we're looking at the year 2020. There's no incentive whatsoever on either side to negotiate. Ran out of time for this year.
We're going to see just how bad things are on July 17th when the stock market plummets 150 points to kickoff the drop.
ReplyDeletethat would be nice!!!! wouldnt it
DeleteAbsolutely!
DeleteAnd the money flow goes where?... from a 1.95% 10 year yield.
ReplyDeleteWe are going up with 3% pullbacks for remainder of year.
"Be Careful
June 27, 2019 at 7:46 AM
S&P to 2996 soon. I admit it's possible we hit 2886-2889 Sunday night to complete drop."
Sold UVXY $28.10.
ReplyDeleteWait until middle of July for the best entry.
DeleteAs the tanks roll through Washington, DC.
ReplyDeletelol
Deleteyou looking for 24 on uvxy
DeleteYes. SVXY should hit the blue line and flat top will wear on UVXY a little as it forms.
DeleteSo it's best to have patience as we wait for the bulls to load themselves up with shares at the top...
sold uvxy at 29.05
ReplyDeleteSC 3030 in play
ReplyDeletewondering if uvxy gap will be filled 31?
ReplyDeletei make more money shorting every pop in uvxy!!!!!!!
ReplyDeletenew highs coming
ReplyDeleteSC, what $ are you looking to buy back UVXY?
ReplyDeleteit looked awsome at 27.10 for a trade
DeleteBitcoin will hit 14200, also 16500.
ReplyDeletemanipulation is hard to detect!!! when that comes down it gonna hurt people
DeleteSVXY has given indications that the "flat top" is the most likely topping pattern. As a result that'll wear down UVXY with decay. Estimate that the flat top will take until end of August to complete.
ReplyDeleteWhat that means is that the best entry to hold for a big move is due late in August. I think $20 or under looks possible for UVXY with $50 target.
Having said that UVXY will be good for short term trades soon, later in July for a nice shirt term pop.
SPX is weaker and it'll top this month, in July, drop for 4 months.
ReplyDeleteestimation july 17 or end of month?
DeleteJuly 22 to 26th.
DeleteS&P to 3080 soon.
ReplyDeletei was thinking 3040 top of uptrend
DeleteThis rally is going to be insane. Shocking.
ReplyDeleteSPX is like watching paint dry, but you know the old saying "never short a dull market".
ReplyDeleteThis does apply at least in the short term. Earnings later in the month will make it more interesting...
Two worst case scenarios:
ReplyDeleteBad earnings = 2926
Trade war worsens = 2873
whats the best cast scenario 3040
Delete3047-50
Deletelooks like svxy coming close to top
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/IcJcKrM
https://imgur.com/a/zVU431d
ReplyDeleteVIX opex Wed..
ReplyDeleteFrom what I've read lately, trading UVXY in an IRA is subject to UBTI (unrelated business taxable income). If I'm understanding this correctly, your IRA will be taxed for trading UVXY. I'm no expert in this area, but I thought I would pass this on. I'm looking at SOXS as an alternative for IRA trading.
ReplyDeleteWith the plunge in Bitcoin, SPX won't be far behind.
ReplyDeletesc at what price are you getting in on uvxy 22?
DeleteWe're likely to see lower lows for UVXY into late August but yes it's almost low enough to look at for short term pop. Maybe next week.
DeleteWatch the weekly bars on SPX for the reversal.
ReplyDeleteok thanks
DeleteSPX likely flat this week.
DeleteThe reversal is coming though, as soon as next week. Watch for the price rise then reverse to close down on a weekly bar.
vix up uvxy is flat
DeleteBitcoin has been trading around the mid fork. It's having a bad month and it's going to get worse.
ReplyDeleteSC, spx drop started already or still next week?
ReplyDeleteNot yet
Deleteso another new ATH then the big drop?
DeleteThis week, SPX is flat, not much going on price wise. Yes, SPX should pop up and reverse sharply on a weekly bar to signal a new downtrend. Not happening this week but soon.
DeleteNot the reversal yet, but it is getting close...
ReplyDeleteSC, take a look to July 1999 (20 yrs ago)...
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/N42gKZ0
Thank you, let's watch.
Delete"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Wednesday was again trying to referee an intra-party struggle among her Democratic colleagues over whether to take steps toward impeaching Republican President Donald Trump."
ReplyDeleteAlthough the impeachment drum has begun to beat, there is one positive on the horizon, ratification of the USMCA.
ReplyDeleteStock market peak likely to coincide with this event.
"MEXICO CITY — Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Tuesday he will tell a delegation of U.S. lawmakers visiting Mexico later this week that the USMCA trade deal is important for the region, and he called for its ratification by the U.S. Congress."
sc uvxy short term target still 20?
DeleteIn that case it could be pushed until September: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/10/trump-white-house-likely-to-send-usmca-trade-deal-to-congress-after-sept-1.html
DeleteMany events are lining up in September. Debt ceiling in September as well.
Delete"Conservative estimates from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin say the U.S. could lose its spending ability as early as September."
It still looks like the peak is coming in late July for SPX.
DeleteUVXY will likely be ready for a pop late in July, a few dollars lower and then $5 pop, but will still put in lower lows into late August, and yes under $20.
ReplyDeleteSc your thinking 24 then 29 then 17
Delete$22
DeleteIntra-year gain will probably be 25% = S&P 3167. I don't think the drops get below 2940 for July. Also, 2873-2889 will hold for months.
ReplyDeleteyour still kicking booty with your calls..
DeleteMueller hearings scheduled for next Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteFrancis Bussiere @AstroCycle_Net
ReplyDelete...Solar Highs and Lows can spell trouble as this chart of Solar Cycle and Recessions shows. The 1974 low, 1987 crash and 2008 crash were all Solar lows, but the 2000 Bear was a Solar High. Right now we are at a Solar Low and the possibility of a Bear and/or Crash exists.
SC, if I’m understanding you correctly, at the end of July, S&P will peak (long term shorting opportunity), but UVXY won’t hit its low till end of August / beginning of September. Did I summarize that correctly?
ReplyDeleteYes, that is right. SPX is approaching a peak soon. I am waiting.
DeleteHello SC with the dump of yesterday changes the program on SP500?
ReplyDeleteThanks
We're getting close. On the weekly last week was down but it didn't break.
Delete3040 coming
ReplyDeleteSC - Has SPX peaked in your opinion - we are nearing the end of the month? Are you scaling into UVXY yet? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteSVXY has a little more upside to go. It'll turn at $59. UVXY ~ $22.
ReplyDeleteIt's simple. When SVXY hits $59, it's time to enter UVXY for a trade.
ReplyDeleteThe best Trade on UV XY was a short this PIG on June 3rd
DeleteUvxy 22 to 27 or 31?
DeleteUVXY $22 to $27. Once SVXY hits $59 it'll fall to gap support at $55.
DeleteMy hunch about Silver proved correct. Silver spiked and just had it's best week since 2016.
ReplyDeleteSCJune 25, 2019 at 8:29 AM
"For those that really want to chase after the last little bit of this Gold rally, Silver may pop better short term, but Silver is extremely weak and should hit $10 on the next down leg into 2020."
The reason I had suspected Silver was about to spike was because the Gold rally is finishing. Silver had to catch up to Gold, and it did, which confirms that the Gold rally is in the late stage. Silver may see $18 roughly.
ReplyDeleteSVXY is determined to reach $59, which was the September 2018 peak.
ReplyDeleteLooks like SVXY/SPX reversing now off your $59 target!! Let's see how the week closes for that reversal candle
DeleteI like the price action at $59. Strong reaction.
DeleteThere we are, within striking distance now!
ReplyDeleteSC - are we waiting for one more pop in SPX to 3030-50? or is it time to get short?
DeleteWait for 3,040 SPX
DeleteThanks SC!
Deletespx 3040 when aug 2
Deletepure manipulation they know dbank is going down and they are trying everything to hang on to this fabricated market.
DeleteDeutsche bank, Boeing, Tesla.
ReplyDeleteAll toast, more to follow.This is going to be a nightmare.
SC, what is your spx outlook for August?
ReplyDeleteBecause there is so much noise on the daily, we've been watching the weekly bars for the reversal. It's proven to be the correct strategy.
DeleteThe reversal is coming, this week.
DeleteSC any updates on Bitcoin? thanks
ReplyDeleteBitcoin had a bad month as expected. It hasn't quite traded into our 8k target but it's getting close...
DeleteSC, for GBTC, it says it doesn't use 1099B, do you know what form they use? Thank you!
DeleteThe chart that nobody is watching is going to be posted later today.
ReplyDeleteSc you are looking for 22 this week uvxy still?
ReplyDeleteSorry, have been busy.
DeleteI still think so.
Deleteuvxy not making sense as vix is up
ReplyDeleteI've been betting opposite of your gold and silver calls, its not your cup of tea...
ReplyDelete