SVXY continues to have difficulty and is showing relative weakness compared to SPX. At best, SVXY may attempt to challenge the white downtrend line from September.
The Head and Shoulders is intact and the Right Shoulder is nearing completion.
Daily Chart
The trend is your friend, and we have a clear downtrend on SVXY.
ReplyDeleteWhile SPX is challenging the September high and April high, SVXY is showing relative weakness. SVXY is not even close!
ReplyDeleteHouston we have a problem!! Serious volatility is about to erupt.
SPX may push just over the April high, that does look entirely possible. Still, 2,810 SPX target remains intact.
ReplyDeleteOne more good pop would get SPX overbought on the daily for a good short opportunity.
ReplyDeleteSC - We will make a marginal new high over the high in SPX this morning. Is it time to start scaling in shorts?
DeleteVery soon. I'd like to see SPX overbought on the daily. It's close...
DeleteVolatility is the better play though in my opinion.
ReplyDeletechumps just begging for a rate cut
DeleteWe are not going below 2843 gap for 5-6 weeks. We may see 2873-2889. I don't know if July 31 FOMC will be a top or bottom. The White House will probably announce something June 30 regarding trade talks...short term up or down in market then (I think down).
ReplyDeleteNo cut as expected, and Fed sees no cuts in 2019.
ReplyDeleteSCJune 11, 2019 at 10:32 AM
"SPX slammed off the open, rate cut hopes and dreams shattered..."
but spx still not coming down when do u see 2810?
DeleteMarket likely to rally short term on the no cut but collapse soon after.
ReplyDeletewhat is plan B? uvxy will get crushed holding
DeletePlan to increase UVXY soon. Looks attractive already but I'd like to see if it gets oversold here which it didn't in April.
Deleteuvxy big pig im short this pig and long this turd
ReplyDeletebought more uvxy at 32 sold svxy
ReplyDeleteposts only said u have been buying uvxy, when did u buy svxy?
Deletebro this aint my sight when i see things going wrong i hedge my position sometimes they dont let me short and whenyour buying big positions like 5 and 10 thousand shares at atime there are sometimes you gotta trade the other side
ReplyDeletebought more uvxy at 30.55
ReplyDeletebought more spxs at 18.20
ReplyDeletethis always ends bad in my opinion looking for 2850 in my opinion
ReplyDeleteSPX not quite overbought yet, but getting close now.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/YaQN0Bt
ReplyDeleteTarget in this model reached even though we could pop a little higher
Go back and look at price action around 9/21/18, 12/21/18, 3/21/19
ReplyDeleteWe saw yesterday that Trump has no control over this Fed.
ReplyDeleteTrump does have control over timing a trade deal with China. If you are Trump, you time a trade deal to boost the market in the fourth quarter leading into an election year.
No incentive to do a deal now...
Strong reaction today for UVXY off the April $30 low. UVXY might pop a little here to $33.75 or so.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the descending triangle broke down which gives a calculated target of $27.60. I think $27's looks possible before it turns higher. So there is the possibility to reposition or add with $50 upside target.
50 would be but i would be great !!!! if that happens by august
DeleteSVXY trading right at the orange line.
ReplyDeleteDefinitely hitting some resistance.
Therefore, UVXY probably forms a trading range in the $29's to $34 until the end of the month.
Short term, it could be worthwhile looking for UVXY entry in the $29's exit $33's.
ReplyDeleteImpressive day for UVXY. With SPX up 27, UVXY closes green.
ReplyDeleteVolatility is the best trade on the board.
thats why im neck seep in this with 20000 shares
ReplyDeleteneck deep
ReplyDeleteBought 33000 UVXY
ReplyDeleteexcellent i also have huge position in spxs
Deletei am expecting 100 points down we shoiuld be down today lets see
Deletesc, what are you thinking about the recent gold breakout?
ReplyDelete1620 is written in stone now, short pullback to 1370 and bamm
DeleteWhat is 1620 and 1370?
DeleteI'm still not interested or impressed by Gold. I notice Silver continues to be very weak which is quite telling I think.
DeleteSure, nice bounce for Gold but it's still 8 years off the peak in 2011.
Gold will see 1620, 1370 is good entry if the work it down over the week...
DeleteSC your cycles don't work on Gold or Bitcoin, your predictions have been so wrong, give it up, I went against your calls on both based on your track record.....
Stick to equities....I made solid R's on both...
"Be Careful June 11, 2019 at 5:27 AM
ReplyDelete2970-80 possible within 4 weeks."
The top of the monthly Bollinger should be 2990s-3000 soon. The downside is limited to about 2905-2926 medium term. There won't be a trade deal June 30th weekend. Lots of sideways through end of July.
https://youtu.be/DJM1oRIqTbQ
ReplyDeletePOSSIBLE DOUBLE TOP IN PLACE
sc, btc 11k....
ReplyDeleteBitcoin has followed my projection posted July 2018 and updated November 18, 2018:
Deletehttps://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2018/07/bitcoin-bouncing-but-capitulation-is.html
man really missed on bitcoin
ReplyDeleteYes. Let's wait and catch the next moves.
DeleteUVXY should test the upper end of the trading range on Monday. $33's a good exit, look to reenter $30 for another pop to $33.
ReplyDelete"Trump says US will impose ‘major additional sanctions’ against Iran on Monday"
SCJune 20, 2019 at 12:16 PM
Delete"SVXY trading right at the orange line.
Definitely hitting some resistance.
Therefore, UVXY probably forms a trading range in the $29's to $34 until the end of the month."
New chart posted!
ReplyDelete