SC: in my opinion we need to close the up cycle started in the december low. To do this we need around 5 -7 days of down trend ( cycle close is always a down trend). This may start around full moon ( 21 march) or a little before.
if prices do not fall in March, a more positive than expected cyclical price revision will be required.
Thank you. For SPX expect a steady slide down for about 3 to 4 weeks.
Volatility is starting a sizable move, the bigger spike is coming in VIX but we are just testing the neckline currently and then right shoulder next. There will be a good bounce in about a 10 days which presents the largest shorting ooportunity.
I'm not at all impressed with bitcoin or GBTC here. The premium is getting low, and that is interesting, but the sideways move is extending. The premium could see lower, even par is possible. I think it is best to wait, the time will come.
Thank you for your updates SC - when are you expecting SPX to top out and go long UVXY - towards end of this month?
ReplyDeleteWithin a week. It's almost ready. UVXY $37.
DeleteSC, SVXY $45 is when SPX 2680?
ReplyDeleteTarget SPX 2,635.
Deletelooks like we gonna hit 2820
ReplyDeleteNotice the financials haven't been able to rally since January.
ReplyDeleteIm just wondering how high spxu could go here? if we go to 2650 maybe back to 39 40 spxu tops and uvxy still 6o
DeleteStill just see a pullback for SPX. Not overly bearish for SPX. SVXY looks much more bearish, and so relatively attractive for UVXY.
Deleteyou are still expecting 2635 thats a big pull back in my opinion
Deletedamm close could that have been the top or will it come on the 18th
ReplyDeleteBoeing the latest crisis to add to a growing list.
ReplyDeleteSC so we are expecting a drop next to 2635 then a rally to 2880 then big drop to <2346 is this correct?
ReplyDeleteYes, I haven't wanted to get into all the details, and I always advocate taking things one step at a time.
DeleteThis is a very exciting moment for the stock market though.
GBTC cooling off nicely. Premium was 22% and now a fairly reasonable 13%. The bitcoin price has been flat.
ReplyDeletemarkets breakin out
ReplyDeletelooks like 2950
ReplyDeletei mean 2850
ReplyDeletespxu trading at 31 81 are u buying more ?
ReplyDeleteSc. SVXY. TODAY. 53.41. UVXY. 37.67
ReplyDeleteSC, you still buying UVXY at $37?
ReplyDeleteSC: in my opinion we need to close the up cycle started in the december low. To do this we need around 5 -7 days of down trend ( cycle close is always a down trend). This may start around full moon ( 21 march) or a little before.
ReplyDeleteif prices do not fall in March, a more positive than expected cyclical price revision will be required.
SC, Boeing is nothing within a cycle.....just more clothes being washed.....
ReplyDeleteThe September low for UVXY was $35. We can see it come down just a little more for an optimal entry this week.
ReplyDeleteA high this week for SPX is looking quite clear, and rollover.
ReplyDeleteI see vix green even though spx is green that shows almost Uvxy is bottom out.
ReplyDeleteThanks,very good!
DeleteSC spx just keeps going up are we forming the final big top?
ReplyDeleteSPX still is not overbought on the daily at this point and frankly it's too weak to get overbought at this time.
DeleteIt'll pullback and then yes it will get there overbought with an important top later.
UVXY very strong...
ReplyDeleteUVXY now green with SPX up 15 points. Very little time left. Maybe one more day.
ReplyDelete$36.50 UVXY run to $45.
Deletefar cry from 85 i should of held my short
Deletetarget not $56?
Delete$45 at the neckline, to get to $60 would have to break the neckline and confirm.
DeleteFirst step is to test the neckline.
Rumour came out, China deal all talk no action. Markets should rally back up now today and probably tomorrow, but the turn is near.
ReplyDeleteSC what's your opinion on the China Shanghai index? Thanks a lot!
DeleteMight wait for Friday.
ReplyDeletesc: are you search 35 for UVXY? Bitcoin is ready for run up?
ReplyDeletemany thanks
R.R.
Yes, UVXY still coming down a little, Friday may present the best opportunity for entry.
DeleteBitcoin, still waiting. It is slowly warming.
SC spx target still 2635? from the chart we should see that low by May is this correct?
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8cms3Ku4Y0
DeleteIt is clear that SPX drop soon. It's best to look at it in steps. Drop to the neckline is the first.
Delete2,765 SPX first level to watch neckline.
DeleteYesterday the market wasn't sure whether to rally on the rate cut halt or selloff on the weak economy.
ReplyDeleteThankfully we can tune out the noise with the charts and cycles.
Time after time I have been amazed at how this plays out.
DeleteWe look for reasons but the cycle is just the cycle.
rigged market we could see 2880 first then down
ReplyDeleteLove these moments. Cat and mouse. Just about ready...
ReplyDeleteI'm long 10000 shares of spxs cost 23 gonna buy another 10000 shares soon
ReplyDeleteThere we go, our Head and Shoulders is in play!
ReplyDeleteSVXY has dropped to the 200 moving average though so may see a bounce here. SPX still holding relatively well.
ReplyDeleteCome on Smash this Market down
ReplyDeleteSVXY further to fall to test the neckline.
ReplyDeleteThe SVXY chart looks similar to the flight path of a Boeing Max 8.
ReplyDeleteSC the whole world is bearish now. 2100. 1800.
ReplyDeleteNot yet...
DeleteSC. Svxy is 50.5. R u expecting to 48. And bounce again
ReplyDelete$49 SVXY next, then ready for the right shoulder.
DeleteMueller report is coming, but likely there will be a battle as to whether it is released or not. Just enough time for the right shoulder to form ;)
ReplyDeleteAh this is good!!!
ReplyDeleteSo that means. 2780 or so for svxy 48 can happen before hrs monday
ReplyDeleteSVXY closed at the 50 moving average, so probably bounce soon, but expect the neckline to be tested hard a few times next week.
DeleteThen the right shoulder.
DeleteThe chart I made for SPX would have been perfect for the Dow which saw the lower high and slide lower.
ReplyDeleteSPX looks negative for weeks, but volatility is excellent.
SC when the cycle see the next low?
DeleteLow next week, then small bounces for a few weeks, and continue lower. The bottom in April, give it approximately 4 weeks.
DeleteThe moving averages are actually supporting everything now. Once the prices lose that support in a few weeks the downturn will accelerate.
ReplyDeletePrices sliding down to the neckline.
ReplyDeletemarch low will be tested
ReplyDeleteMaking a bounce this morning.
ReplyDeleteThe left shoulder took 3 weeks, head 2 weeks.
DeleteSVXY has traded up to the 200 moving average on the daily.
ReplyDeleteSC, cycles still see big summer bounce after the April low?
ReplyDeleteYes, selloff into April, and higher high in the summer. July 4th.
Deletelooks like march lows will be hit 2733 area before a bounce in my opinion
DeleteSPX starting to catch up on the downside.
DeleteSC
ReplyDeleteGreat call on this topping process.
Where are you looking to get short?
Thank you. For SPX expect a steady slide down for about 3 to 4 weeks.
DeleteVolatility is starting a sizable move, the bigger spike is coming in VIX but we are just testing the neckline currently and then right shoulder next. There will be a good bounce in about a 10 days which presents the largest shorting ooportunity.
10 calendar or trading days (TD)?
DeleteJust an approximation of how long the right shoulder may take to form.
Delete2854 next
ReplyDeletegood call
DeleteSC: very low premium on GBTC now around 12.70%. Mark up imminent?
ReplyDeletetarget price around 5500 or more?
many thanks
RR
I'm not at all impressed with bitcoin or GBTC here. The premium is getting low, and that is interesting, but the sideways move is extending. The premium could see lower, even par is possible. I think it is best to wait, the time will come.
DeleteUVXY gap at $38.50.
ReplyDeleteThanks LYFT for lifting the market to short into!
ReplyDeleteSC are you waiting to short until next week?
DeleteToday might be good enough, no need to be perfect at this time with such substantial volatility ahead.
DeleteSc are you adding spxu?
DeleteBoth look attractive but UVXY nice upside potential.
DeleteSC r ubexpexting. 2850 to 60 next week
ReplyDeleteThis shoulder can be expected to carry into next week, but the market is heading into rough seas and soon.
DeleteSVXY chart update is coming, with bearish pattern near completion!
ReplyDeleteBought UVXY $38.90.
ReplyDeleteSC, spx target 2635?
ReplyDeleteTo start with let's review at 2,800.
DeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete