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Friday, February 15, 2019

UVXY - VIX at trendline!

UVXY has cooled off from the December target.

Price looks attractive for a pop with VIX at trendline support and SPX approaching overbought.  UVXY pop into month-end probable.

Daily Chart
















VIX at trendline, ready to pop!

Daily Chart















109 comments:

  1. SVXY hitting resistance as shown in previous analysis. Quite frankly SVXY looks likely to give back most of its gains from December next.

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  2. The 50 day moving average for SPX is still declining! Looking quite overextended short term...

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  3. Trump declares national emergency right as VIX on trendline!

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  4. Great update SC! On your chart that's about a 50% move from 16 ish to 24 ish. What do you expect for the SPX, 2600, 2500? Thanks!

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  5. Replies
    1. Yes, chart look quite negative for SVXY.

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    2. SC, cycles negative for SPX and SVXY in March?

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    3. Yes, particularly for SVXY. Detailed big picture charts are ready. Waiting to post them.

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  6. probally 52 on uvxy market looks like it wants to roll over

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  7. Bitcoin has been drifting down after an initial pop. Decided to wait on sidelines as a drop in the market could pull GBTC back under $4 for better entry.

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    1. Still feel a bitcoin spike is coming and soon.

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    2. Ideal trade would be a nice pop in UVXY then roll into GBTC for spike up....

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  8. SVXY has failed to rally for the last week even as SPX has pushed higher. Clear warning.

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  9. SC what do u think of put options on SVXY

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    1. That could be considered though then it becomes more complicated as timing then becomes critical depending on the specific option etc...

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  10. Bitcoin surge tonight. eth breakup. bch near a breakup. .. SC may perheaps you should re - buy GBTC.. or you are seeing a drop again on btc? Many thanks..

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    Replies
    1. Bitcoin definitely heating up. It can spike anytime at this point. It might settle back. Expect 5,000's coming soon.

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    2. i think thet btc can pull back the previous breakdown. i.e aroun 5500 - 6000. Is interensting to check a exit condition around that price.
      many thanks..

      PS: buy uvxy today?

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  11. looking like a reverse head and shoulders on spx maybe 2800 to 2810

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  12. One point I would like to make regarding GBTC. It came down to the target premium of 10% and has spiked. Premium is now 20%. There is no bitcoin ETF currently. The moment a bitcoin ETF lists there is no reason to pay a premium at all. A bitcoin ETF is coming, and time is running out. So GBTC would drop on news that an ETF is near approval. It's important to understand this.

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    Replies
    1. Currently GBTC $4.80. Premium is about $1.00.

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  13. it looks like 2810 is coming the weekly s and p is not even over bought

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  14. looks like vix will come down to 13.68

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  15. Interesting day. SPX sold off in the close and with some volatility increasing.

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    Replies
    1. Also GBTC slumped into the close. It appeared to sell off with markets. A test...

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  16. SVXY failing to advance yet again. Support down in the $44's.

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  17. violent sell off coming the question is are we hitting 2810 first
    i believe its a matter of days 1 day 2 day lets see

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  18. I looked and Bitcoin traders now unanimous that it's breaking out yet it's a lower high right now. Under the circumstances I think it may rise for maybe one more week but then fall for 4 weeks. It's heating up for sure but this looks premature. Later March on pace for the best timing for bitcoin.

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    Replies
    1. Later March may be best timing for long entry bitcoin.

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    2. SC is the 5000 usd target for this week or for the next leg up in later march? which target do you have 4 this running up trend that should end in a week?
      many thanks?

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    3. The 5,500 target is valid but may only see a lower high around 4,200 then settle back to 3,400 and run to 5,500 on the next leg up.

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  19. For the bears I think the problem right now is timing. SPX still advancing but really slowly. This could take a while to play out. When you have these V bottoms the rally is fast at the start then very slow. The market is expensive and the upside doesn't look attractive, but obviously the bears are going to need a lot of patience...

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  20. UVXY coming down a little. I think it may see an up week, but maybe next week lower for better better entry. UVXY not quite at the pink line.

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  21. look at the 1995 chart for spx, tariffs, govt. shutdowns and a bull market that didn't let anyone shorting make up the losses......just continuous up cycle.....

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  22. The vix looks like it's going to come down come closer 1365

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  23. The markets of getting more overboard it looks like a slow grinding hi to 2810 or maybe they're waiting for some good news that we don't know about who the hell knows this is like watching paint dry

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  24. I meant to say overbought not overboard close but no cigar

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  25. Bitcoin taking a tumble, nice!

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  26. SC what will bring this market down. Trump tweets and market gaps up

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    Replies
    1. We saw on Friday the collapse of Kraft Heinz. Last year the selling was led by techs aggressively.

      Now we are seeing that the contagion was not contained at all, but rather is now spilling into the most stable companies.

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    2. We've seen the tell that the big leg down will see deep haircuts in the valuations of consumer staples shares.

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  27. Tops are a process, bottoms are an event. To form a peak in SPX we'll start to see some chop.

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  28. Looks like uvxy could see below 35 Wondering whats going to drop market Mueller investigation over no collusion china deal north korea deal wheres the bad news fed is not selling there portfolios
    Just wondering here?

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  29. I have never seen a market up this much in 10 weeks crazy market

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    Replies
    1. February 28th, Thursday. Q4 GDP. Keep an eye on this date.

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    2. SC, do you see the next drop will be more violent given SPX so stretched? do u see 2600 area or retest of 2346 low?

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    3. Yes, it will be violent, but we are just going to see chop next as the top forms. Lower ;)

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    4. How much time you think for the top to be formed? and Lower you mean lower than 2346? Thanks a lot!

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    5. Thank SC! So LOW in May, then TOP by July?

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    6. Earliest we could see a top in May.

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  30. GBTC dropped, testing gap. Expecting it to cool off towards $4. Can see that next week.

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  31. SC have you intention to buy GTBC at 4 or wait the up impulse around end of march as you wrote :" Later March may be best timing for long entry bitcoin".
    many thanks!

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    Replies
    1. Bitcoin moving a little quicker than anticipated. Last week I had said it should rise to $4,200 then drop to $3,400. It hit $4,183 on the weekend now dropped to $3,770.

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    2. Bitcoin moving according to plan.

      February 20, 2019 at 12:13 PM

      "The 5,500 target is valid but may only see a lower high around 4,200 then settle back to 3,400 and run to 5,500 on the next leg up."

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    3. GBTC moving rapidly. Give it two weeks and can see around $4 entry with $7 target.

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    4. ok : very good.. let's see

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  32. SC, UVXY at the pink line, u still looking to buy this week?Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. UVXY interacting with the support. Nice pop this week although I don't think it is ready for a big move quite yet.

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  33. sc do you plan on buying more spxu and whats your target?

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    1. So far we've just been looking at pullbacks. We are seeing a pullback now, chop as we approach the top.

      There is a big play coming later.

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    2. I'll post targets but just short term now.

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  34. SC: Are you going to buy GBTC when it comes to 4 although before 2 weeks or do you still intend to wait 2 weeks and then buy even if GBTC has already reached 4? we must observe price and the right timing ... which of this 2 is the most important in this case in your opinion?

    many thanks..

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    Replies
    1. GBTC should make a higher low on this decline. So that is above $3.66. We could see $3.80 and estimate two weeks. I wouldn't try to catch the bottom tick but we have some time to work with.

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    2. ok.. Many thanks again SC...

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  35. spx looks like 30000 coming end of year and dow tramsports over 12000

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  36. sc many interensting news are coming on bitcoin: a simple example:
    https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/starbucks-partners-with-bakkt-to-accept-payments-in-bitcoin-201903051008?utm_source=tradingview&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=254b9d70-7c4b-481b-a94e-aaac0c60ed14

    the yesterday low at 4.27 for GBTC is no so far to 3.80 that you are waiting.
    I'm afraid that some sudden news could make the price jump..

    is a good idea to start to buy a litte from now to 3.80 in your opinion?

    many thanks..

    R.R.

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    Replies
    1. It's a personal choice really, but I'll just wait for under $4. Probably see a good entry in a week. Still some time.

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  37. SPX selloff has commenced. Selling to intensify soon, within a week likely to see a sharp drop. Low mid-month.

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    Replies
    1. Any target on SPX, SC? Thanks in advance!

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    2. Thanks SC - so this is not an intermediate top in SPX, just a pullback?

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    3. This is the beginning of a multi month top. Pullback is part of this topping process.

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    4. ok thanks SC. Where do you see SPX having it's final top - ~ 2850 or higher?

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    5. Probably higher. 2,880 to 2,900.

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  38. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_ONyukSLqA

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  39. sc do you anything about stellar xlm crypto im hearing this is gonna explode?

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    Replies
    1. No, I just stay with the leader bitcoin. Most liquid and developed market of them.

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  40. sc we are expecting a drop 1st correct 2680 or 2650 then a top in may correct thats the way im seeing it?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, that is correct. Pullback here is part of a larger topping process.

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  41. SC, with the top in May, does this mean we are expecting two tops, one in May and one in July? Many thanks

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    Replies
    1. Not quite. The first top is forming and pullback. The secondary peak to form between May and July.

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  42. And it's the battle of the Bulls and the Bears at 2750

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  43. 267 on spider looks likely then 295 just my opinion i will be laying down a monster short on uvxy when we hit bottom just my opinion

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  44. SC, will you sell SPXU at 2680, and just buy back later?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, I do think that is the best strategy. Holding shorts and continuing to build short positions for longer term investors is fine also.

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  45. I'm exceptionally pleased that the plan is unfolding as it should. What a great year 2019!!

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  46. SC can u pl update spx. What u expecting next three mo ths

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    Replies
    1. SPX update posted. Expecting some more downside into April.

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  47. SC u see SPX 2680 low next week?

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    Replies
    1. Probably see a bounce soon and then lower.

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