Bitcoin has been drifting down after an initial pop. Decided to wait on sidelines as a drop in the market could pull GBTC back under $4 for better entry.
Bitcoin surge tonight. eth breakup. bch near a breakup. .. SC may perheaps you should re - buy GBTC.. or you are seeing a drop again on btc? Many thanks..
i think thet btc can pull back the previous breakdown. i.e aroun 5500 - 6000. Is interensting to check a exit condition around that price. many thanks..
One point I would like to make regarding GBTC. It came down to the target premium of 10% and has spiked. Premium is now 20%. There is no bitcoin ETF currently. The moment a bitcoin ETF lists there is no reason to pay a premium at all. A bitcoin ETF is coming, and time is running out. So GBTC would drop on news that an ETF is near approval. It's important to understand this.
I looked and Bitcoin traders now unanimous that it's breaking out yet it's a lower high right now. Under the circumstances I think it may rise for maybe one more week but then fall for 4 weeks. It's heating up for sure but this looks premature. Later March on pace for the best timing for bitcoin.
SC is the 5000 usd target for this week or for the next leg up in later march? which target do you have 4 this running up trend that should end in a week? many thanks?
For the bears I think the problem right now is timing. SPX still advancing but really slowly. This could take a while to play out. When you have these V bottoms the rally is fast at the start then very slow. The market is expensive and the upside doesn't look attractive, but obviously the bears are going to need a lot of patience...
look at the 1995 chart for spx, tariffs, govt. shutdowns and a bull market that didn't let anyone shorting make up the losses......just continuous up cycle.....
The markets of getting more overboard it looks like a slow grinding hi to 2810 or maybe they're waiting for some good news that we don't know about who the hell knows this is like watching paint dry
Looks like uvxy could see below 35 Wondering whats going to drop market Mueller investigation over no collusion china deal north korea deal wheres the bad news fed is not selling there portfolios Just wondering here?
SC have you intention to buy GTBC at 4 or wait the up impulse around end of march as you wrote :" Later March may be best timing for long entry bitcoin". many thanks!
Bitcoin moving a little quicker than anticipated. Last week I had said it should rise to $4,200 then drop to $3,400. It hit $4,183 on the weekend now dropped to $3,770.
SC: Are you going to buy GBTC when it comes to 4 although before 2 weeks or do you still intend to wait 2 weeks and then buy even if GBTC has already reached 4? we must observe price and the right timing ... which of this 2 is the most important in this case in your opinion?
GBTC should make a higher low on this decline. So that is above $3.66. We could see $3.80 and estimate two weeks. I wouldn't try to catch the bottom tick but we have some time to work with.
sc many interensting news are coming on bitcoin: a simple example: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/starbucks-partners-with-bakkt-to-accept-payments-in-bitcoin-201903051008?utm_source=tradingview&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=254b9d70-7c4b-481b-a94e-aaac0c60ed14
the yesterday low at 4.27 for GBTC is no so far to 3.80 that you are waiting. I'm afraid that some sudden news could make the price jump..
is a good idea to start to buy a litte from now to 3.80 in your opinion?
SVXY hitting resistance as shown in previous analysis. Quite frankly SVXY looks likely to give back most of its gains from December next.
ReplyDeleteThe 50 day moving average for SPX is still declining! Looking quite overextended short term...
ReplyDeleteTrump declares national emergency right as VIX on trendline!
ReplyDeleteGreat update SC! On your chart that's about a 50% move from 16 ish to 24 ish. What do you expect for the SPX, 2600, 2500? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteSPX 2,640 target.
DeleteSVXY target $45.
ReplyDeleteuvxy target?
ReplyDeleteTarget $63 UVXY.
Deletewow that high
DeleteYes, chart look quite negative for SVXY.
DeleteSC, cycles negative for SPX and SVXY in March?
DeleteYes, particularly for SVXY. Detailed big picture charts are ready. Waiting to post them.
Deleteprobally 52 on uvxy market looks like it wants to roll over
ReplyDeleteBought UVXY $46.70.
ReplyDeleteSold GBTC $4.24.
ReplyDeleteBitcoin has been drifting down after an initial pop. Decided to wait on sidelines as a drop in the market could pull GBTC back under $4 for better entry.
ReplyDeleteStill feel a bitcoin spike is coming and soon.
DeleteIdeal trade would be a nice pop in UVXY then roll into GBTC for spike up....
DeleteSVXY has failed to rally for the last week even as SPX has pushed higher. Clear warning.
ReplyDeleteSC what do u think of put options on SVXY
ReplyDeleteThat could be considered though then it becomes more complicated as timing then becomes critical depending on the specific option etc...
DeleteSc what's your targeton spxu
ReplyDeleteJust reviewing now.
DeleteBitcoin surge tonight. eth breakup. bch near a breakup. .. SC may perheaps you should re - buy GBTC.. or you are seeing a drop again on btc? Many thanks..
ReplyDeleteBitcoin definitely heating up. It can spike anytime at this point. It might settle back. Expect 5,000's coming soon.
Deletei think thet btc can pull back the previous breakdown. i.e aroun 5500 - 6000. Is interensting to check a exit condition around that price.
Deletemany thanks..
PS: buy uvxy today?
looking like a reverse head and shoulders on spx maybe 2800 to 2810
ReplyDeleteOne point I would like to make regarding GBTC. It came down to the target premium of 10% and has spiked. Premium is now 20%. There is no bitcoin ETF currently. The moment a bitcoin ETF lists there is no reason to pay a premium at all. A bitcoin ETF is coming, and time is running out. So GBTC would drop on news that an ETF is near approval. It's important to understand this.
ReplyDeleteCurrently GBTC $4.80. Premium is about $1.00.
Deleteit looks like 2810 is coming the weekly s and p is not even over bought
ReplyDeletelooks like vix will come down to 13.68
ReplyDeleteInteresting day. SPX sold off in the close and with some volatility increasing.
ReplyDeleteAlso GBTC slumped into the close. It appeared to sell off with markets. A test...
DeleteSVXY failing to advance yet again. Support down in the $44's.
ReplyDeleteviolent sell off coming the question is are we hitting 2810 first
ReplyDeletei believe its a matter of days 1 day 2 day lets see
I looked and Bitcoin traders now unanimous that it's breaking out yet it's a lower high right now. Under the circumstances I think it may rise for maybe one more week but then fall for 4 weeks. It's heating up for sure but this looks premature. Later March on pace for the best timing for bitcoin.
ReplyDeleteLater March may be best timing for long entry bitcoin.
DeleteSC is the 5000 usd target for this week or for the next leg up in later march? which target do you have 4 this running up trend that should end in a week?
Deletemany thanks?
The 5,500 target is valid but may only see a lower high around 4,200 then settle back to 3,400 and run to 5,500 on the next leg up.
DeleteFor the bears I think the problem right now is timing. SPX still advancing but really slowly. This could take a while to play out. When you have these V bottoms the rally is fast at the start then very slow. The market is expensive and the upside doesn't look attractive, but obviously the bears are going to need a lot of patience...
ReplyDeleteUVXY coming down a little. I think it may see an up week, but maybe next week lower for better better entry. UVXY not quite at the pink line.
ReplyDeletelook at the 1995 chart for spx, tariffs, govt. shutdowns and a bull market that didn't let anyone shorting make up the losses......just continuous up cycle.....
ReplyDeleteThe vix looks like it's going to come down come closer 1365
ReplyDeleteThe markets of getting more overboard it looks like a slow grinding hi to 2810 or maybe they're waiting for some good news that we don't know about who the hell knows this is like watching paint dry
ReplyDeleteI meant to say overbought not overboard close but no cigar
ReplyDeleteLong uvxy at 42.80
ReplyDeleteBitcoin taking a tumble, nice!
ReplyDeleteSC what will bring this market down. Trump tweets and market gaps up
ReplyDeleteWe saw on Friday the collapse of Kraft Heinz. Last year the selling was led by techs aggressively.
DeleteNow we are seeing that the contagion was not contained at all, but rather is now spilling into the most stable companies.
We've seen the tell that the big leg down will see deep haircuts in the valuations of consumer staples shares.
DeleteTops are a process, bottoms are an event. To form a peak in SPX we'll start to see some chop.
ReplyDeleteLooks like uvxy could see below 35 Wondering whats going to drop market Mueller investigation over no collusion china deal north korea deal wheres the bad news fed is not selling there portfolios
ReplyDeleteJust wondering here?
I have never seen a market up this much in 10 weeks crazy market
ReplyDeleteFebruary 28th, Thursday. Q4 GDP. Keep an eye on this date.
DeleteSC, do you see the next drop will be more violent given SPX so stretched? do u see 2600 area or retest of 2346 low?
DeleteYes, it will be violent, but we are just going to see chop next as the top forms. Lower ;)
DeleteHow much time you think for the top to be formed? and Lower you mean lower than 2346? Thanks a lot!
DeleteMay... Yes, lower.
DeleteThank SC! So LOW in May, then TOP by July?
DeleteEarliest we could see a top in May.
DeleteJuly...
DeleteGBTC dropped, testing gap. Expecting it to cool off towards $4. Can see that next week.
ReplyDeleteSC have you intention to buy GTBC at 4 or wait the up impulse around end of march as you wrote :" Later March may be best timing for long entry bitcoin".
ReplyDeletemany thanks!
Bitcoin moving a little quicker than anticipated. Last week I had said it should rise to $4,200 then drop to $3,400. It hit $4,183 on the weekend now dropped to $3,770.
DeleteBitcoin moving according to plan.
DeleteFebruary 20, 2019 at 12:13 PM
"The 5,500 target is valid but may only see a lower high around 4,200 then settle back to 3,400 and run to 5,500 on the next leg up."
GBTC moving rapidly. Give it two weeks and can see around $4 entry with $7 target.
Deleteok : very good.. let's see
DeleteSC, UVXY at the pink line, u still looking to buy this week?Thanks!
ReplyDeleteUVXY interacting with the support. Nice pop this week although I don't think it is ready for a big move quite yet.
Deletesc do you plan on buying more spxu and whats your target?
ReplyDeleteSo far we've just been looking at pullbacks. We are seeing a pullback now, chop as we approach the top.
DeleteThere is a big play coming later.
I'll post targets but just short term now.
DeleteSC: Are you going to buy GBTC when it comes to 4 although before 2 weeks or do you still intend to wait 2 weeks and then buy even if GBTC has already reached 4? we must observe price and the right timing ... which of this 2 is the most important in this case in your opinion?
ReplyDeletemany thanks..
GBTC should make a higher low on this decline. So that is above $3.66. We could see $3.80 and estimate two weeks. I wouldn't try to catch the bottom tick but we have some time to work with.
Deleteok.. Many thanks again SC...
Deletespx looks like 30000 coming end of year and dow tramsports over 12000
ReplyDeleteannoying market isnt it
ReplyDeletewe need a wwe smackdown here
ReplyDeleteExactly what we are going to get lol
Deletesc many interensting news are coming on bitcoin: a simple example:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/starbucks-partners-with-bakkt-to-accept-payments-in-bitcoin-201903051008?utm_source=tradingview&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=254b9d70-7c4b-481b-a94e-aaac0c60ed14
the yesterday low at 4.27 for GBTC is no so far to 3.80 that you are waiting.
I'm afraid that some sudden news could make the price jump..
is a good idea to start to buy a litte from now to 3.80 in your opinion?
many thanks..
R.R.
It's a personal choice really, but I'll just wait for under $4. Probably see a good entry in a week. Still some time.
DeleteSPX selloff has commenced. Selling to intensify soon, within a week likely to see a sharp drop. Low mid-month.
ReplyDeletesc is your target still 2680
DeleteAny target on SPX, SC? Thanks in advance!
DeleteNear OPEX?
Delete2,650 to 2,680 SPX
DeleteThanks SC - so this is not an intermediate top in SPX, just a pullback?
DeleteThis is the beginning of a multi month top. Pullback is part of this topping process.
Deleteok thanks SC. Where do you see SPX having it's final top - ~ 2850 or higher?
DeleteProbably higher. 2,880 to 2,900.
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_ONyukSLqA
ReplyDeleteYes!!! Haha, thank you!
Deletesc do you anything about stellar xlm crypto im hearing this is gonna explode?
ReplyDeleteNo, I just stay with the leader bitcoin. Most liquid and developed market of them.
Deletesc we are expecting a drop 1st correct 2680 or 2650 then a top in may correct thats the way im seeing it?
ReplyDeleteYes, that is correct. Pullback here is part of a larger topping process.
DeleteSC, with the top in May, does this mean we are expecting two tops, one in May and one in July? Many thanks
ReplyDeleteNot quite. The first top is forming and pullback. The secondary peak to form between May and July.
Delete2750 has to crack hard here
ReplyDeleteAnd it's the battle of the Bulls and the Bears at 2750
ReplyDelete267 on spider looks likely then 295 just my opinion i will be laying down a monster short on uvxy when we hit bottom just my opinion
ReplyDeleteSC, will you sell SPXU at 2680, and just buy back later?
ReplyDeleteYes, I do think that is the best strategy. Holding shorts and continuing to build short positions for longer term investors is fine also.
DeleteI'm exceptionally pleased that the plan is unfolding as it should. What a great year 2019!!
ReplyDeleteSC can u pl update spx. What u expecting next three mo ths
ReplyDeleteSPX update posted. Expecting some more downside into April.
DeleteSC u see SPX 2680 low next week?
ReplyDeleteProbably see a bounce soon and then lower.
DeleteSPX update posted!
ReplyDelete