Hi SC, you're talking about three weeks to achieve a drop of 80-100 points from current levels. But over the past few months, declines have been far faster: once the market gets moving, it drops 80-100 points within two or three days, not weeks. Do you anticipate a much slower decline than we have seen recently? Or do you not expect the decline to begin until well into February? Thanks...
I suspect may see an overthrow of the white trendline for SPX during the next week to hit the high. The bulk of the decline will happen fast during 1 week. Then SPX can decline slower for another week. So all together the process can take about 3 weeks time.
Not a fan of UVXY now I must say. Not a good place to look for volatility in a bull move with a tightening range. I'm lowering my target $42 down to $30.
The time will come later. Just wait for the low hanging fruit to ripen.
As always we will take it one step at a time. It is a most interesting time for volatility in both directions. I have many VIX charts coming which I plan to post near the turning points.
Bitcoin not for everyone should be mentioned. It's a personal choice to make. Plenty of action in more traditional markets. Bitcoin should be watched as a leading indicator for the stock market regardless.
Great call on the SPX SC! The overthrow looks close to completion. The new moon on the 4th of February and shortly after could portend weakness. Nice to see your target in the next 2 to 3 weeks. Good luck to all!
hot money will chase the market up but I have 2710 area as a good place for move down, close to your viewpoint....The fed gave bulls some breathing room which also creates a bullish ratio ripe for the taking......l
Jerome Powell yesterday demonstrated more than at any time in history, that the Fed are 100% captive to the market and that it has lost any and ALL decision making strength when it comes to charting a sustainable future course for the US. 10 years and rates can't even get to half of where they were before the GFC.
I know, I know, I know, the saying goes "don't fight the Fed". Unfortunately however what Jerome Powell did yesterday, was to drive the final nail in the coffin. that will ensure the eventual total collapse of US pension funds and the USD.
Mark my words, yesterday was the WORST possible outcome for the future of US financial stability. This ushers in the final stage in the collapse of US economic and financial dominance and a handing over to the Asia..
Very sad to see Jerome Powell cave in as easily as he did.
I used to hold hope that Jerome Powell possibly was the one to have the strength to make the hard decisions and had our backs covered, but how wrong I was. I think at one stage he possibly did have that intention, however he folded to the political pressure.
if we give a look at s&p500 futures at 60 min frame, i think we can see a false break out pattern with the yestarday top. is not a big pattern but we are in topping zone and all signal must be carefully take on short trade list..
sc look at the nikkei index from 1980 to 1990 it hit almost 40000 at 27000 after a dip it exploded up and then dropped never recovered i am starting to wonder if a china deal will explode the market up like that melt up after a dip? your thoughts.
SC: bitcoin near a low... and s&p near a top.. is not casual i suppose... could we see bitcoin up and s&p down together? are you always waiting uvxy at 45 for s&p500 short ? and so also GTBC premiunm at 10%... .. together? many thanks..
where i can see GTBC premium?? do you have a link 4 me please?
SC: good call on bitcoin. I think is good. LTC, ETH, BCH and many other crypto are ready to explode . A question 4 you: https://www.neotechdevs.com/ is always off line: " We’ll be back soon! Sorry for the inconvenience but we’re performing some maintenance at the moment. If you need to you can always contact us, otherwise we’ll be back online shortly!
— The Team"
do you have an other web site to see Premium on GTBC?
SPX saw a bull stampede in January, but the trendline is overhead now.
ReplyDeleteGenerally expect SPX to lose half its gains from December.
ReplyDeleteA start estimated at 2,700 SPX yields a 2,525 target.
DeleteNotice after last week's poor performance, it starts to feel heavier.
ReplyDelete2512 is half
ReplyDeleteFor certain we were a little early calling the bear move. The first clue was the Sears bankruptcy pushed into February.
ReplyDeleteThe second when the government shutdown "can" was kicked down the road by 3 weeks into February.
The dates shifted into mid February low.
DeleteHi SC, you're talking about three weeks to achieve a drop of 80-100 points from current levels. But over the past few months, declines have been far faster: once the market gets moving, it drops 80-100 points within two or three days, not weeks. Do you anticipate a much slower decline than we have seen recently? Or do you not expect the decline to begin until well into February? Thanks...
DeleteI suspect may see an overthrow of the white trendline for SPX during the next week to hit the high. The bulk of the decline will happen fast during 1 week. Then SPX can decline slower for another week. So all together the process can take about 3 weeks time.
DeleteFascinating everyone loved bitcoin at $19,000 now hate it at $3,400???
ReplyDeleteBitcoin traders comfortable short. People calling it crypt0. You know what is about to happen...
Not a fan of UVXY now I must say. Not a good place to look for volatility in a bull move with a tightening range. I'm lowering my target $42 down to $30.
ReplyDeleteThe time will come later. Just wait for the low hanging fruit to ripen.
how high we go in uvxy to short this
ReplyDeleteExpect just over last week's high of $70.
DeleteIf SPX pops and overthrows the white trendline UVXY drops to maybe $45 then just over $70.
DeleteUVXY is very time sensitive. In a bull move for stocks must have patience for UVXY. I am always interested in UVXY at the right price.
Deletei have made more money shorting uvxy then going long
DeleteYes, but always remember that was in a bull market for stocks in the past.
DeleteLooking forward keep in mind it will be most exciting for UVXY in a bear market for stocks.
I agree of course
DeleteAs always we will take it one step at a time. It is a most interesting time for volatility in both directions. I have many VIX charts coming which I plan to post near the turning points.
Deletesc: time to buy bitcoin now?
ReplyDeletemany thanks..
PS: if not now when?
Bitcoin looks attractive for a pop. Charts said it could come down to 3,200. Currently 3,395. Target is 5,500.
DeleteSo yes it can come down a little. The longer we wait the chance of missing the start of the move increases though.
Premium on GBTC still a little high at 16. Closer to 10 would be nice but still the risk reward looks good.
Bitcoin not for everyone should be mentioned. It's a personal choice to make. Plenty of action in more traditional markets. Bitcoin should be watched as a leading indicator for the stock market regardless.
DeleteSC - are you long-term bullish bitcoin and plan to hold some for the long-term or are you just trading it only? Just curious.
DeleteJust trading. I have a model for this year and its choppy. Later yes, but not now to hold longer term.
DeleteMarket manipulation at its finest Look Out Below
ReplyDeleteSC, just wondering, could the cycles be inverted, as we reaching a high and now drop 4 weeks to a low by end of Feb??
ReplyDeleteI didn't use a timing cycle this time so it's not inverted, but I do agree. Down February.
DeleteGreat call on the SPX SC! The overthrow looks close to completion. The new moon on the 4th of February and shortly after could portend weakness. Nice to see your target in the next 2 to 3 weeks. Good luck to all!
ReplyDeleteThank you! Yes, now we are ready!
Deletehot money will chase the market up but I have 2710 area as a good place for move down, close to your viewpoint....The fed gave bulls some breathing room which also creates a bullish ratio ripe for the taking......l
ReplyDeletelooks like 2720
ReplyDeleteS&P 500 best January since 1987! Haha
ReplyDeleteTextbook overthrow of the trendline. Finally ready to decline. SPX 2,600 in 3 days. Next event Sears bankruptcy...
ReplyDeleteBought GBTC $3.97.
ReplyDeleteStarter, looking to add soon.
DeleteBitcoin catalyst Bakkt getting close.
DeleteBought SPXU $36.65.
ReplyDeleteJerome Powell yesterday demonstrated more than at any time in history, that the Fed are 100% captive to the market and that it has lost any and ALL decision making strength when it comes to charting a sustainable future course for the US. 10 years and rates can't even get to half of where they were before the GFC.
ReplyDeleteI know, I know, I know, the saying goes "don't fight the Fed". Unfortunately however what Jerome Powell did yesterday, was to drive the final nail in the coffin. that will ensure the eventual total collapse of US pension funds and the USD.
Mark my words, yesterday was the WORST possible outcome for the future of US financial stability.
This ushers in the final stage in the collapse of US economic and financial dominance and a handing over to the Asia..
Very sad to see Jerome Powell cave in as easily as he did.
I used to hold hope that Jerome Powell possibly was the one to have the strength to make the hard decisions and had our backs covered, but how wrong I was.
ReplyDeleteI think at one stage he possibly did have that intention, however he folded to the political pressure.
Gold to da MOON!
beetlejuice, beetlejuice, beetlejuice......
ReplyDeletearen't you supposed to appear now?
XLF hitting weekly resistance area....
Gold is pointing towards 1495 if it holds 1310...weekly chart
looks like 2742 200 day average is coming
ReplyDeleteAlso 50 weekly 2,730.
Deleteif we give a look at s&p500 futures at 60 min frame, i think we can see a false break out pattern with the yestarday top. is not a big pattern but we are in topping zone and all signal must be carefully take on short trade list..
ReplyDeletesc: are we ready 4 the down move today in your opinion? VIX is in a triple bottom pattern..
ReplyDeleteLooks like a few more days before it turns.
ReplyDeleteSC - still looking for 2525ish SPX once it turns down? Thanks!
DeleteIt is going to pullback soon. Charts are coming.
DeleteUVXY getting closer to $45.
ReplyDeleteSCJanuary 28, 2019 at 9:44 AM
"If SPX pops and overthrows the white trendline UVXY drops to maybe $45 then just over $70."
like swiss cheese 2730
ReplyDeleteI'll be interested in UVXY soon. Later this week.
ReplyDeleteDefinitely overextended in short term.
ReplyDeleteI am saving charts for the right moment.
ReplyDeleteim thinking 2742 we will see maybe wednesday thursday they have to sucker more people long
ReplyDeleteSPX not quite overbought on daily but getting close. Starting to see topping tails on the candles.
DeleteWe are in for a really fun year. I see what is coming... We are going to do this properly. Patience is the key...
ReplyDeleteThanks for sharing your knowledge.
DeleteGBTC premium at 12% very close to target premium of 10%. Bitcoin 3,365 near the 3200's level.
ReplyDeletesc look at the nikkei index from 1980 to 1990 it hit almost 40000 at 27000 after a dip it exploded up and then dropped never recovered i am starting to wonder if a china deal will explode the market up like that melt up after a dip?
ReplyDeleteyour thoughts.
Nikkei during 1980's was a maturing economy and to that extent there is similarity.
DeleteMarkets perform best leading to a major top.
At this time though I dont think nikkei applies. Hold that thought for later.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2593/nikkei-225-index-historical-chart-data
ReplyDeleteSC: bitcoin near a low... and s&p near a top.. is not casual i suppose... could we see bitcoin up and s&p down together?
ReplyDeleteare you always waiting uvxy at 45 for s&p500 short ? and so also GTBC premiunm at 10%... .. together? many thanks..
where i can see GTBC premium?? do you have a link 4 me please?
SPX and bitcoin are correlated over the longer term but they move differently. Bitcoin does look ready to pop soon.
DeleteGBTC premium now at 10%. www.neotechdevs.com
DeleteSo it's a reasonable premium now whereas when bitcoin topped December 2017, the premium was around 60%.
DeleteThe low premium means that the hot money has shunned the bitcoin trade which means in the short term anyways perfect time to look for a pop.
ReplyDeleteSPX looking tired, momentum fading.
ReplyDeleteSC, are you still looking for UVXY this week, at what price? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteLittle pop today but let's see. Still might be a lower low. Around $45 would be interested.
Deletesc are you expecting a pop to the 200 day average still?
DeleteThe pullback for SPX is probably underway.
Deletespx daily looks like it wants to drop
DeleteGBTC spiking!!
ReplyDeleteSC: good call on bitcoin. I think is good. LTC, ETH, BCH and many other crypto are ready to explode . A question 4 you: https://www.neotechdevs.com/ is always off line:
Delete" We’ll be back soon!
Sorry for the inconvenience but we’re performing some maintenance at the moment. If you need to you can always contact us, otherwise we’ll be back online shortly!
— The Team"
do you have an other web site to see Premium on GTBC?
many thanks!!!
:-)
Thank you. Yes bitcoin looking good for the pop.
DeleteThis link always works:
https://neotechdevs.com/gbtc/
Sc what is your target price in spxs and time frame
ReplyDeleteUp more..
Delete2769/SPX on Feb 13.
that could happen the top of the hourly uptrend
DeleteSc any cycle days you are watching? any changes of the model, big drop in March?
ReplyDeleteLet me answer this with a chart coming next. There are things we can say about timing, and this is a good time to talk about that.
DeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDeletesc you dumpin this piece of crap
ReplyDelete