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Wednesday, November 21, 2018

$SPX - Weekly signals Big Bounce Ahead

SPX was unable to maintain rising in the steep slope of the main pink channel.  Another channel has formed, and the slope is gradual.  Outlook for SPX remains positive as price will likely rise in the blue channel next.

The weekly chart of SPX is signalling a big bounce ahead.

Daily Chart

44 comments:

  1. In late October charts were clear that SPX daily was configured to turn up, and that a bounce was coming. We did see a strong bounce.

    SCOctober 27, 2018 at 8:47 AM

    "Yes, continuing to build long positions, and increasing. The daily chart for SPX is a common one, and it is in a configuration to turn up very soon.

    My feeling is that a move is coming towards 2,750 next."

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  2. The same is occurring now this time on the weekly rather than daily. Therefore we can expect a stronger, longer lasting rally next.

    SPX setting up to rally for a month or more next.

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  3. Fully positioned now long SPX. RALLY TIME!!

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  4. SC: Could we see a lower low on SP500 futures? may be a dobule bottom before rally Time?

    Is the rally time the " gran finale" you were talking about a month ago?
    many thanks

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    Replies
    1. We could see a lower low from October. The low will have to form soon because the weekly is already turning up. So we could see lower prices short term but the bull run is coming.

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    2. The grand finale is also coming but charts are not in alignment yet. A few more steps first.

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  5. Frankly, the entries were early for sure, average is $47.75. I plan to fix this on the next runup. Runup is the next play then can position for a washout early next year.

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    Replies
    1. The markets looking very weak looks like 2500 coming soon

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    2. Let's see what happens. You know the old saying trade what you see.

      What we see is the blue channel rising for SPX to 3,000.

      Delete
  6. SC: are we in a capitulation mode on bitcoin? is this a "buy now" in your opinion?

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    Replies
    1. It is attractive at this price. Not ready for a big move but it'll see a nice bounce to 5,000 anyways.

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  7. I'm wondering if bitcoin will make a capitulation lower or its a fraud?

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    Replies
    1. I believe next year will be positive for bitcoin.

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  8. There is no proper capitulation for bitcoin. We'll see that next year, but yes it is forming a low here very soon. Expect a new sideways trading range will develop next.

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  9. Looks promising that the low is in for SPX. Holding a higher low from October. The rising channel is well established. The duration of the selloff is actually shorter than February. All of this hints that a new high of 3,000 looks probable.

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  10. Bitcoin traded at 3,500 this weekend. It made a strong bounce off that level. GBTC may drift a little lower to $4 but expect a bounce towards $6 in December. Premium is a little high around 20% currently but low compared to where it has been over the last year 50% plus. Premium will evaporate once a proper etf lists but until then it is the only game in town other than futures. Just a trade.

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  11. UVXY support has plummeted to $30.

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    Replies
    1. Definitely far too much fear. Cramer was a bull and is now calling this a bear market haha. We have a normal correction. Expect SVXY to double in 2019. SVXY target $90.

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  12. I calculated the numbers and long SPX with UPRO is a better trade than SVXY for the next move in particular. So I haven't done anything with SVXY. Later in 2019, I expect to opposite to be true. Once SVXY lines up properly I will be very interested for a double.

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  13. Let's see if we can shave a little of premium off GBTC. I'll have some patience. Currently 18%. Looking to add soon. Just would be nice to see the premium under 10%.

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  14. The market is feeling weird to me I wouldn't be surprised if we have one more drop down soon like any day before we move up

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    Replies
    1. The market didn't dip but good call. The weird feeling was correct. Unusual events are underway...

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  15. Meltup is underway for SPX. The daily chart will surge into overbought territory shortly which it hasn't seen since January. 2,850 should be a magnet. I think it will be wise to exit long positions at that level.

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    Replies
    1. The indicator hasn't been configured for this positive a move since January 2018. Expect a "January like" meltup for SPX. Once the meltup occurs and the shorts have been squeezed the washout may then occur as the market will be in a vacuum.

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  16. great call SC. !!
    if 2850 is your S&p500 target , Bitcoin 5000$ is your target too?

    many thanks.

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    Replies
    1. Thank you! The hard work will be rewarded.

      Yes those are the targets. SPX and bitcoin highly correlated.

      Delete
  17. Sc are you expecting a pull back into December 2nd or December 12th your thoughts and then up

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    Replies
    1. SPX meltup is underway next 2,790 tested soon little resistance there before meltup further to 2,850. Not likely to see much of a pullback Dec 2. SPX rising very sharply for a few weeks next at least based on these indicators.

      We're going straight up!!

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  18. The dips will be tiny now in this meltup. That is because the bears are trapped.

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  19. I want to buy more I was hoping for a slight dip of 35 points on the S&P doesn't look likely though I have a nice position I'm happy

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  20. Bitcoin looks like it may settle back to 3,600 before spiking to 5k to 6k level.

    Nice surprise coming for 1 year anniversary of the December 2017 peak.

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  21. S&P bears starting to sweat. Frying pan is warming up...

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  22. The market is confirming two things today. Firstly, we are right to be bullish SPX. Secondly, it is too early to be long bitcoin.

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    Replies
    1. Hold tight the winner SPX long, sell the loser GBTC.

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  23. GBTC premium too high at 24% currently. It's a little too rich. Wait for the numbers to be more attractive. Love the trade, but need to wait for timing to develop. Bitcoin update is coming.

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  24. Don't like GBTC but I'm loving that uvxy short I got

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