SC: if i understand well, in your opinion the negative seasonal pattern that normally occour in this period (sept + oct) will have no influence to price... right? If so this last up leg may be the last "hurrah" of the USA markets, The "gran Finale"as you wrote in your previous post.. many thanks..
Everything is aligned for the final run. The seasonals don't appear to be an issue this year. While we are talking about stats though the midterms are the dominant event. The stats look favorable for SPX.
"Stocks tend to perform well from May through election day in midterms years when the sitting president has an approval rating below 50%."
I did take advantage. I sold Gold at the top. Sold my Gold holdings at $1,850. I have the receipt. I plan to utilize the capital to buy much more at the bottom as a result.
True I could have shorted more aggressively. I helped a lot of gold bugs manage their holdings and shorts made a fortune.
SC:just to understand your thoughts: what is your November midterms election S&P500 target? 3000 or 3125? if 3000 when 3125? if 3125 why sell UPRO at the equivalent of 3000? tactic "sell to close" for consolidate gains?
many thanks !!
PS: in elliot terms after the august temporary peak around 2915( III° of 3) we can see an a-b-c. Now we should be at the end of b if the market remain under 2915 and stall here. If so then c wave can swing in lateral ( at most test previous low at 2863 during september ) before rally again towards new high. Instead If market break 2915 directly, we are not in a-b-c but again in impulsive III of 3 and we must wait a - b - c conslidation further on.
PS2: just for information, a friend told me that in the last 8 sessions we had 6 Hindenburg Omen on S&P500 ... how reliable is this in your experience?
My model shows the final leg up in SPX. 3,125 could be reached if price rises to the resistance as shown on the chart. If the slope is gradual though it may only climb along the middle support which would suggest a target of 3,000.
It's best to be conservative and review with time.
The hindenburg is a good indicator. I see it as indicating a frothy market which is further confirming the topping process in the model. This is a strong market but it is expensive. So we should not be surprised at seeing the hindenburg as we near the top in the model. Often there are a cluster of signals.
at the moment S&P500 show the c leg in force. Let's see if the yesterday low around at 2886 il good to complete the pattern before breakup or S&p500 need a lower low next days..
2863 could happen but I doubt it highly Market is very very strong I will be a bit surprised if 31:25 is an understatement I'm looking for 3200 to 3400 by the end of the year we will see
It considered a very good trader I enjoyed reading it.I like the quality of your blog. We offer latest updates for Malaysia Stock Market, Those who wants to be up to date in Bursa Stock Market with Best Trading Recommendations. You can follow our blog for the best results in KLSE stock Exchange
As long as we are seeing small dips it is likely we are still following the model. We may only see small dips. If a larger dip were to occur I'd watch 2,840 SPX.
SC: if i understand well your thought you are selling now S&P500 around 2830 - 2835 with the intention to buy it around 2830 after a pull back during october and then long to 3000... Right?
SC: if i understand well, in your opinion the negative seasonal pattern that normally occour in this period (sept + oct) will have no influence to price... right? If so this last up leg may be the last "hurrah" of the USA markets, The "gran Finale"as you wrote in your previous post..
ReplyDeletemany thanks..
Everything is aligned for the final run. The seasonals don't appear to be an issue this year. While we are talking about stats though the midterms are the dominant event. The stats look favorable for SPX.
Delete"Stocks tend to perform well from May through election day in midterms years when the sitting president has an approval rating below 50%."
Buy the rumour, sell the news: trade deals... Let's see the Art of the Deal!
DeleteSC--that silver prediction sounds like a 1981 redux--wow!!
ReplyDeleteThe nightmare continues for Gold and Silver! I have been warning for 7 years now...
DeleteI did take advantage. I sold Gold at the top. Sold my Gold holdings at $1,850. I have the receipt. I plan to utilize the capital to buy much more at the bottom as a result.
ReplyDeleteTrue I could have shorted more aggressively. I helped a lot of gold bugs manage their holdings and shorts made a fortune.
I'll calculate a target price for UPRO. Looking excellent!
ReplyDeleteUPRO target $62 which equates to SPX 3,000.
DeleteSC:just to understand your thoughts: what is your November midterms election S&P500 target? 3000 or 3125?
ReplyDeleteif 3000 when 3125?
if 3125 why sell UPRO at the equivalent of 3000? tactic "sell to close" for consolidate gains?
many thanks !!
PS: in elliot terms after the august temporary peak around 2915( III° of 3) we can see an a-b-c. Now we should be at the end of b if the market remain under 2915 and stall here. If so then c wave can swing in lateral ( at most test previous low at 2863 during september ) before rally again towards new high.
Instead If market break 2915 directly, we are not in a-b-c but again in impulsive III of 3 and we must wait a - b - c
conslidation further on.
PS2: just for information, a friend told me that in the last 8 sessions we had 6 Hindenburg Omen on S&P500 ...
how reliable is this in your experience?
My model shows the final leg up in SPX. 3,125 could be reached if price rises to the resistance as shown on the chart. If the slope is gradual though it may only climb along the middle support which would suggest a target of 3,000.
DeleteIt's best to be conservative and review with time.
The hindenburg is a good indicator. I see it as indicating a frothy market which is further confirming the topping process in the model. This is a strong market but it is expensive. So we should not be surprised at seeing the hindenburg as we near the top in the model. Often there are a cluster of signals.
thanks SC.
Deleteat the moment S&P500 show the c leg in force. Let's see if the yesterday low around at 2886 il good to complete the pattern before breakup or S&p500 need a lower low next days..
2863 could happen but I doubt it highly Market is very very strong I will be a bit surprised if 31:25 is an understatement I'm looking for 3200 to 3400 by the end of the year we will see
ReplyDeleteuvxy and svxy both reversed split
ReplyDeleteSurprise! There's the breakout.
ReplyDeleteKeep it simple. 50 and 200 day moving averages shooting up. Rising trend. SPX isn't overbought.
The dips will be tiny now as it rises.
should we short TLRY or wait for 350 lol
ReplyDeletewow whaty a smack down tlry from 300
ReplyDeleteIt considered a very good trader I enjoyed reading it.I like the quality of your blog. We offer latest updates for Malaysia Stock Market, Those who wants to be up to date in Bursa Stock Market with Best Trading Recommendations. You can follow our blog for the best results in KLSE stock Exchange
ReplyDeleteTlry getting smashed did anybody get a chance to short that piece of crap
ReplyDeleteLol
Deletegbtc hitting new lows
ReplyDeleteBitcoin is getting interesting. Capitulation is getting closer, but may see chop first.
DeleteSC: have you a stop loss for your long in UPRO / S&P500?
ReplyDeleteAs long as we are seeing small dips it is likely we are still following the model. We may only see small dips. If a larger dip were to occur I'd watch 2,840 SPX.
Deleteso your expecting a dip a doubt it will be that far maybe 2880
Deletesold upro and spxl will buy back on slight dip
DeleteDone deal!
ReplyDeleteSCSeptember 12, 2018 at 8:41 AM
"Buy the rumour, sell the news: trade deals... Let's see the Art of the Deal!"
3000 here we come
ReplyDeleteBought the rumour, now it's time to sell the news and take profit!
ReplyDeleteare u selling?
DeleteYes
Deletei didnt see it posted though did you post it and thanks
DeleteThe buy was posted. Looking to exit.
DeleteThis is a natural level for a pullback. A pullback similar to June for SPX would take prices down around 2,830 SPX.
ReplyDeleteSC: if i understand well your thought you are selling now S&P500 around 2830 - 2835 with the intention to buy it around 2830 after a pull back during october and then long to 3000... Right?
ReplyDeleteYes
DeletePrice may rise for a few more days but a pullback looks probable.
An October pullback would set up a run into year end and the higher 3,125 SPX target in play.
New chart update!
ReplyDelete