Still not in UVXY , but neither in XIV . Waiting to load within a month or two as I believe the base building will need several months , perhaps until April or May next year , absent of any exogenous event . Anyway , next year will be very particular , if my perception is correct . Thanks for this UVXY chart !
It doesn't take a mathematician to see that we are on the verge of one of the largest panics in history!
Bulls have all their hopes on tax cut yet new Fed chief admits tax cut to only raise GDP by a fraction over 2 or 3 years.
Complacency has risen by 760% since the beginning of 2016.
Fed chief Powell:
"•On tax reform: "You think about a tax cut that might be in the range of 1 percent of GDP. It would raise GDP by a fraction of GDP, you know, over a period of two or three years," Jay Powell said June 1, 2017."
XIV is incredibly weak. Large plunge in August and now struggling to test the October high. It's weaker than i thought. SPX has seen a higher high since October but for XIV just struggling testing the high. Relative weakness.
I hope 2557 gap is not it? Pathetic pullback. Gosh. Why not at least 2537 or 2519. Disappointing. Buyers can't wait to...buy. Also there was a ton of buying at 2575 a few days back on SPY. Loads of money coming in...unusual.
"Be Careful October 6, 2017 at 11:11 AM S&P 2508 to hold rest of year. Easy, without a doubt. UVXY is to be shorted, only. Do not go long UVXY. Do not."
I'll hold for $22 or $23 UVXY. It's up 7 days in a row. That is a bit much. I think there is resistance October's high of $20 so consolidation is likely, but overall higher. VIX has already broken out over October. UVXY has catching up to do. Just a matter of time. Thank you.
New chart posted, and UVXY is in middle of the range currently. I think there will be opportunity to add around $15 though it could grind higher short term.
Bitcoin has tripled since my bullish call in July. At that time the talk was all about bitcoin crashing. The talk is still about it being a ponzi. Guess what more upside...
SCJuly 7, 2017 at 6:18 PM
"I could see bitcoin coming down a little more this summer, but I think up for 6 to 8 months looks possible."
No Christmas rally?
ReplyDeletesc you buying more uvxy yet
ReplyDeleteNot yet. Planning to increase this month in a week or two.
DeleteCome on SC….there will only be minor pullbacks in the SPX until the end of the year. Good luck hoping that you will recover your losses in UVXY.
ReplyDeleteSC - I think you entered the trade too early but obviously you know it. At which price, you want to exit your position? Best wishes,
ReplyDeleteBobo Mik
UVXY is attractive at every price both short term 2 months timeframe, and long term 1 year period.
DeleteI plan to increase my position shortly and expect to exit in December or January in the $20's as shown on the chart.
DeleteAlternatively I have the option of holding longer term for large profits.
DeleteHi SC ,
ReplyDeleteStill not in UVXY , but neither in XIV
. Waiting to load within a month or two as I believe the base building will need several months , perhaps until April or May next year , absent of any exogenous event .
Anyway , next year will be very particular , if my perception is correct .
Thanks for this UVXY chart !
Thank you! It is going to be great fun!
DeleteIt doesn't take a mathematician to see that we are on the verge of one of the largest panics in history!
ReplyDeleteBulls have all their hopes on tax cut yet new Fed chief admits tax cut to only raise GDP by a fraction over 2 or 3 years.
Complacency has risen by 760% since the beginning of 2016.
Fed chief Powell:
"•On tax reform: "You think about a tax cut that might be in the range of 1 percent of GDP. It would raise GDP by a fraction of GDP, you know, over a period of two or three years," Jay Powell said June 1, 2017."
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/01/watch-fed-governor-jay-powell-in-his-own-words-on-monetary-policy-bitcoin.html
1% compared to 760%.
DeleteThanks SC,
ReplyDeleteI kniw you have a $30 target for XIV next year. Do you have a corrsponding UVXY target?
Yes, I will be posting the analysis with charts in due course.
DeleteOne year UVXY target is $70.
sc is that after another split though?
DeleteNo, target is before any splits.
Deletesc how far down can uvxy go and at what point are you going to enter again to average in your price 14 13 10? Your thoughts
DeleteOn this low not much room for downside for UVXY. $13's or $14's.
DeleteXIV is incredibly weak. Large plunge in August and now struggling to test the October high. It's weaker than i thought. SPX has seen a higher high since October but for XIV just struggling testing the high. Relative weakness.
DeleteGreat cuz that's what I was thinking 13 to $14 on uvxy thanks for your help
ReplyDeleteSC, what's your first XIV target?
ReplyDelete$88.
Deletethat 88 target is in january correct
DeleteOr sooner...
DeleteSc, when UVxy is 70, how much will be SPX, then will there be another high or higher high on SPX as shown on your chart for double top
ReplyDeleteI'll post the 1 year downside target for SPX once the topping process matures.
DeleteUVXY with a large gap up this morning. It may want to test the blue line, but there should be another chance to get in afterwards later this month.
ReplyDeleteSo UVXY could pop to $19 cool off to $15 and spike to $22 to $25.
DeleteBought UVXY at $15.50.
ReplyDeleteFor XIV a test of $95 and then $88 looks possible.
ReplyDeletein what time frame
DeleteThe price and time are conservative on the chart. Before the end of the year is possible, and if so then the target is higher $25 for UVXY.
DeleteUVXY flirting with breakout...
ReplyDeleteThere it goes! Kaboom!
ReplyDeleteUVXY up four days in a row. Blue line resistance is $17.50.
ReplyDeleteSPX down next week too...
ReplyDeleteNow that GE has imploded market may be able to bounce for 2 days followed by further downside...
ReplyDeleteAs neckline breach 2540 coming
ReplyDeleteI mean so futures es
ReplyDeleteFavoured scenario here is UVXY $19, settle back to $15 next couple weeks and run to $25.
ReplyDeleteVIX has broken out with clear breakout above October. No surprise VIX rising since July.
ReplyDeleteXIV testing 50 dma this morning.
ReplyDeleteSCNovember 1, 2017 at 7:42 AM
"XIV looks like it'll probably fall back to test the 50 dma around $100 next. Very weak."
So where would XIV bounce to on a retrace of UVXY back to 15?
ReplyDeleteXIV $110.
DeleteI hope 2557 gap is not it? Pathetic pullback. Gosh. Why not at least 2537 or 2519. Disappointing. Buyers can't wait to...buy. Also there was a ton of buying at 2575 a few days back on SPY. Loads of money coming in...unusual.
ReplyDelete"Be Careful October 6, 2017 at 11:11 AM
ReplyDeleteS&P 2508 to hold rest of year. Easy, without a doubt. UVXY is to be shorted, only. Do not go long UVXY. Do not."
SC, do you think there is more downside for SPX this week? perhaps to 2540? thx
ReplyDeleteMaybe, but little room for downside short term.
Delete6 week rally ahead, preparing now.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't buy any dip until there is a panic.
ReplyDeleteSC, are you holding/selling at $19 UVXY?
ReplyDeleteWas that bounce to $18.20 all of it or are you expecting more?
Thank you for your great insights!
I'll hold for $22 or $23 UVXY. It's up 7 days in a row. That is a bit much. I think there is resistance October's high of $20 so consolidation is likely, but overall higher. VIX has already broken out over October. UVXY has catching up to do. Just a matter of time. Thank you.
DeleteThis is a dress rehearsal for the Main event lol.
ReplyDeletewould you add more uvxy or would you wait for pull back
DeleteNew chart posted, and UVXY is in middle of the range currently. I think there will be opportunity to add around $15 though it could grind higher short term.
DeleteBitcoin has tripled since my bullish call in July. At that time the talk was all about bitcoin crashing. The talk is still about it being a ponzi. Guess what more upside...
ReplyDeleteSCJuly 7, 2017 at 6:18 PM
"I could see bitcoin coming down a little more this summer, but I think up for 6 to 8 months looks possible."
New chart posted!
ReplyDelete