Silver has struggled at horizontal resistance, but may attempt to test the 2016 high with the bear market to resume thereafter. There is no sign of a bottom. Silver will take years to finally reach the bottom.
Weekly Chart
Before:
June 25, 2016:
"Silver formed the double bottom blue arrow lows late last year as anticipated in the Cycle. The result was a significant bounce.
Silver is approaching a critical high in the Cycle. It may seem tempting to view Gold and Silver as a safe haven with turmoil in the market.
Any safe haven behavior is likely short lived according to the Cycle with a relentless decline directly ahead."
3-day Chart
I'll post a Gold chart next few days. It was important to see the Silver update first.
ReplyDeleteI'll talk about Gold with the Gold analysis.
DeleteSilver has been boring over the last year. An optimal time to short may occur during the next 6 months. I am waiting and continue to monitor Silver.
ReplyDeleteXIV short term levels to watch. The white line is $91. The blue resistance is $95.
ReplyDelete$91 tested!!
DeleteNice signal from VIX yesterday!
ReplyDeleteSCSeptember 19, 2017 at 11:43 AM
"SPX up today and VIX is also up. This rally is going to collapse just as fast as it went up."
An optimal spot may present itself to short next week for SPX and XIV.
ReplyDeleteso, on silver, end of yr or early 2018 is buy
ReplyDeleteNo, silver is too high. Expect it to take a few years of declines to reach bottom.
DeleteSC--I believe you are the most ardent PM bearish prognosticator on the planet. So does this mean you are the most bullish $USD proponent?
ReplyDeleteHave you read any of Ted Butler's commentary on JPM buying and manipulation of silver and if so, your thoughts?
The US dollar has been rising since 2011 while silver has fallen during the same period. So there is some correlation. I'm certainly not bullish on the dollar long term, but it may rise for a few years.
DeleteSilver has always just followed the Silver Cycle. Silver has been a slow market which is why I am only interested in the big picture.
Maybe, but I'm only interested in the main trend.
ReplyDeleteSC, your thoughts on entering UVXY..?
ReplyDeleteI'll wait for next week. XIV likely to test $95 first.
DeleteThere us a possibility that spx could reach 2516 2517 area
ReplyDeleteSC
ReplyDeleteGreat call so far.
Are you buying UVXY today or waiting for a lower price? XIV hit $95 this morning.
Thank you. Downturn next but only moderate.
DeleteModerate as in SPX 2440 (70 points from current price)? Timing for this is mid-Oct into November? Thanks!
DeleteWhen u say moderate do u mean 2460
Delete?
Yes, that is the SPX target.
Deletethere looks like to me we could get one more pop in spy possibley 251.5 252
ReplyDeleteBought UVXY $21.85.
ReplyDeleteSC, what's your exit range for UVXY? thx
DeleteWhat would be a Target on uvxy your thoughts and thanks again
DeleteUVXY $30.
DeleteAlways found this guy impressive...because he's been so correct.
ReplyDeletehttps://pugsma.com/longer-term-sp-500-view/
He changes with the wind
DeleteSC, what your thoughts are regarding the SPX turn dates? Bulls are in control for now for another day or two in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteIt should turn this week.
DeleteDown into Oct 11 2460 spx is what I think will happen
ReplyDeletemarket up this week. Set back next week 9th 10th Possibly Louis 2460 level
ReplyDeleteSC, do you think this is a break out for both XIV and SPY? If yes, how far can they go? Thx
ReplyDeleteNo breakout in my opinion. It'll stall this week. Down but not major drop.
Deletesc still 2460 on the moderate drop or higher now
DeleteSame target.
Deletexiv hit that 100
ReplyDeleteIn 19.56, risky one, but in
ReplyDeletespx on friday hit 9 13 9 tom demark sell signal;
ReplyDeleteSc is your 30 target lower now your thoughts
ReplyDeleteWe'll see $25 to $30. Nothing major in any case.
DeleteSc thanks what time frame Oct your thoughts
DeleteXIV will form a trading range $85 to $100 for the remainder of this year. October looks negative and it looks weaker later in the year.
ReplyDeletei agree with those xiv trading ranges and timing, 2018 looks like it could get interesting, with a possible bear market starting? Its possible the dec 2017 shows some weakness but doubtful based on santa claus rally and central banks ability to control the market
ReplyDeletesc wondering if we should buy more here your thoughts
ReplyDeleteI'll wait.
Deletewaiting because you feel it drops more your thoughts
DeleteUvxy 17.75 target next
ReplyDeleteMcClellan Oscillator...
ReplyDeleteAll of the readings since Aug. 24 have been above zero. And all of the readings since Aug. 30 have fallen between +34 and +137. That is a pretty tight range. A long study of past readings shows that looking back over just the prior 15 trading days makes for a good indicator, showing that the stock market has become excessively calm and quiet, befitting a meaningful top. Now all we need is for the stock market to behave itself this time, and show us a proper top indication.
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/another_narrow_range_for_mcclellan_oscillator/
Definitely no 25-30 uvxy in future. Perhaps 16.xx soon. Possible rally to 19.32-19.50 after, if that. This is a new paradigm market since 2009.
ReplyDeletedont think you cant get a 12 handle on the vix or better and a 50 point s and p drop to 2500 cause that could easily happen
DeleteBulls in control.. SC, Do you still have the same target range for UVXY..25-30?
ReplyDeleteLet me discuss with the next chart.
DeleteOct 9th 10 th maybe the days for ripe picking on those uvxy. ( sell) dangerous to top pick. But scaling in uvxy today and Friday morning.
ReplyDeleteImportant XIV chart coming.
ReplyDeleteNew Chart posted!
ReplyDelete