The orange channel is clearly broken, but overall the XIV chart is still quite strong. Volatility is likely to increase in the months ahead.
Daily Chart:
Before:
July 16, 2017:
"XIV has been consolidating sideways, and the sideways move appears to be over or nearly so. XIV is approaching long term resistance and volatility is likely to increase dramatically in the months ahead.
However, XIV is still trading within the orange channel, and a test of the upper channel may be possible before the channel breaks."
Daily Chart
SC gold and silver bulls out in force.
ReplyDeleteDo you still see the market topping out in fall, or is this just a spike in vol for you?
ReplyDeleteThe market is in a topping phase. It'll take months to play out.
DeleteSc so when u expecting 2300 or so
ReplyDeleteSC, based on the strong S&P and XIV bounce, where do you see SPX topping out, or has it already? Also, does XIV have any chance of going back to the highs again? thx
ReplyDeleteYes, SPX still should see a higher high. Marginal upside for SPX though. XIV is trading far more aggressively, and can trade much higher.
Delete87 still your target on xiv or higher your thoughts
DeleteXIV is likely to retest the high of $95.
DeleteSC, whats your time frame to see the highs in XIV? thx
DeleteMid - September.
DeletePossibly as early as the end of August.
DeleteNext turn dates August 22nd and then September 12th.
ReplyDeletexiv ouch still 95 target
ReplyDeletevxx traded 265 million shares
ReplyDeleteSheesh, tiny gap still open?
ReplyDeleteThankfully we are transitioning into faster market. We'll take the moves one step at a time. This market can be traded from either a bullish standpoint or bearish, or ideally the best is both.
ReplyDeleteWell are you bullish or are you bearish at this point I think you're bullish correct your thoughts
DeleteI am bullish short term.
DeleteYou're foolish until September turn date correct and then you're bearish after that
DeleteYes and no. Overall yes bullish into September. Later this month I think one more drop is possible. A capitulation. I think short term XIV up into the $80's again. Drop possible and up to $88 target.
DeleteSc I meant to say bullish until September not foolish this phone has a mind of its own
DeleteLol, Louis I know what you meant!
DeleteI've developed a model that looks quite promising.
ReplyDeleteIt's a battle right now between the daily chart which is weakening and the weekly chart which is still very strong.
ReplyDeleteAlso the 50 dma and 200 dma moving averages.
DeleteJackson Hole 24 Aug Mario Draghi low, then patriotic Labor Day & 9/11 highs...just a guess...
ReplyDeleteIt may be choppy next, and may see some weakness around the end of the month. Even so still expect higher prices for XIV in September.
ReplyDeletesc are you still looking for a capitulation down move in the market
DeleteIdeally yes, a drop around the end of August looks possible followed by upside into mid-September.
DeleteLet's see. Might have the opportunity to load up cheap on XIV.
Deleteat what price would you buy more xiv
DeleteIf it drops $66 to $68.
DeleteSold XIV at $81.40.
ReplyDeleteso you are expecting a drop in market
ReplyDeleteNot necessarily, decided to play it safe. Cycles are up into September as far as I'm concerned.
Deleteso you are expecting a pop in uvxy
ReplyDeleteI'll look at UVXY in mid-September for a possible entry.
ReplyDeleteMahendra is saying. Market top out by Thurs morning. UVXY will notfall below 28.5 will reach. 87 to 181. He is expecting 25 to30 per decli e
ReplyDeletedid mahendra give you a time frame
Deletewhats 25 to 30 decli e mean
DeleteHe expects 25 to 30 % corretion. After this thursday. He said to buy grains and softs sell base metals. Zn copper etc
ReplyDeleteWhat about uvxy he's buying that
DeleteAswell
He has been accumulating uvxy presplit. 15. And adding. Thinks it will goto 87 and above
DeleteThere is something something about 24 aug bill meridian also said as high
ReplyDeleteMahendra sent out a free update (I'm not a paid subscriber to his services) on Tues, Aug 22nd. In it he stated that the stock market would be positive on Tuesday and up to mid-Wednesday (Aug 23rd) and that the market would turn very negative from late Wednesday (Aug 23rd) and Thursday (Aug 24th) onward.
ReplyDeleteMahendra wrote and emailed that update when the S&P September contract was trading around 2448 and the NASDAQ was around 5870.
Mahendra is expecting a 25% to 30% correction in the U.S. stock market. Japan, the European market and emerging markets will fall as well but not as much as the U.S. stock market.
Regarding UVXY, Mahendra stated in this recent update that the price will not go below $28.45 and it will go as high as $87.00 and soon UVXY will go as high as $181.00 but he gave no specific time frame for those prices.
Very informative. Thanks Ken!
ReplyDeleteUVXY CANOT stay under 30.5
ReplyDeleteSc. So many expexting crash in oct means it is not going to happen. Looks like os illating between 2430 to 2470. What r u expexting
DeleteI doubt Mahendra is right with a 30% correction you might see 5% if you're lucky
DeleteSc can u pl do chart of gold. Every one getting bullish
ReplyDeleteI will.
DeleteDrop happening after hours. If XIV holds a higher low on this move it'll test $100 mid-september.
ReplyDeleteSCAugust 22, 2017 at 7:33 AM
Ideally yes, a drop around the end of August looks possible followed by upside into mid-September.
Planning to enter XIV this morning.
ReplyDeleteBought XIV at $76.30.
ReplyDeleteNice trade SC! What's your exit target range?
DeleteXIV $100 to $105.
Deletewhat is your time frame for 100
Delete2 weeks.
DeleteLouis, I don't know if the stock market will decline 30% either but I think it will fall a lot more than just 5%.
ReplyDeleteI follow Raymond Merriman's analysis who uses market cycles, technical analysis and financial astrology. I am a paid subscriber of his services.
According to Merriman, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has a 50 week cycle which when measured from cycle low to cycle low occurs within a range of 34 to 67 weeks 90% of the time.
August 28th to September 1st is the 61st week of the Dow's 50 week cycle. The 50 week cycle low is due no later than mid-October 2017. Time is rapidly running out!! The 50 week cycle low should occur very soon – probably in the next few weeks anyway.
Also, according to Merriman, there is also a 23 month cycle low due sometime between now and December 2017. It's highly probable that the 50 week cycle low will culminate with the 23 month cycle low. This won't be a measly 4% to 5% stock market pullback so everyone can buy the dips. It's going to be a little more significant than that.
i could see dec to january getting down 10 percent but not any time soon
Deletewell uvxy still did not go below 30.5 4th time
ReplyDeletetrue might do today watching closely i think there should be another leg down in spx then up
Deleteuvxy breaking 30
DeleteBill meridian. And others saying sept 5 onwards very bad
ReplyDeletelooks like we broke 29 today uvxy
ReplyDeletesc your thoughts on turn dates 9 14 to 9 15 turn dates
ReplyDeletei have a bottom and oct 5 6 massive top your thoughts
Everything going according to plan. I'm bullish into September. Next turn date September 12th. XIV might see a small wobble around $85, but once that clears $100 can come quickly.
DeleteOK THANKS
DeleteSC ARE YOU LOOKING FOR SEPT 12 AS A BOTTOM THEN UP INTO OCTOB 5 TURN DATE
DeleteNo I'm expecting a high around September 12th and weakness after that into the end of the month.
DeleteThank u have a fantastic holiday
DeleteWeekend
Sc when u expecting 2300
ReplyDelete2,500 SPX next.
DeleteThe model shows when the big move is coming for the bears. It's important to wait for the optimal timing to catch it. One move at a time.
DeleteIs 9/12 the day you think bears start to take control?
DeleteI do have the turn date on the 12th give or take. Second half of September bearish.
Deletesc are u referring to september 12th as a trine
ReplyDeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete