Next, a spike up is anticipated for XIV to backtest the white trendline. The spike up is expected to start gradually this coming week, and intensify as month-end April approaches.
Daily Chart
Before:
March 18, 2017 analysis:
XIV has reached it's short term target, and a pullback is due. XIV has been trading in the white channel, but the slope is too steep, and appears unsustainable.
A pullback to the orange channel with a more gradual slope is likely to occur next.
Daily Chart
The orange support was basically hit last week. So it appears XIV is ready to warm up this coming week, and heat up with a spike last week of April.
ReplyDeleteBasicalky xiv making inverse head and shoulder. 62 to 75 to 65. Then it woll take to 9
DeleteWe are on the same page SC !
ReplyDeleteVery nice!! It'll be a lot of fun!
DeleteSc. From above chart. 62 to 75 to 65. Inverse head and shoulder.
DeleteWell, I have a plan for May, but first let's see things progress in April.
DeleteGoing short, 2335 ES. Into thu
ReplyDeleteAs posted on last week page, looking for the low for April 20 th
ReplyDeleteSC, is April 28th a turn date or you just expecting a spike higher next week?
ReplyDeleteApril 28th is the turn date.
DeleteFlash crash this afternoon if S&P follows FTSE. April 18.
ReplyDeletewhen you refer to april 28th are you referring to a bradley turn
ReplyDeletedate on spx and a top on xiv
But, I agree with you that maybe a good Top. I have the next possible bottom on the 2nd May I am waiting until after the 1st week of May to get into XIV I fully expect one hell of a ride with xiv.
DeleteThat bradely turn will be a very week turning point. It is only ( 19/100 ) power. A little hick up, thats it.
ReplyDeleteNone of my turn dates come from Bradley. They are from a proprietary timing cycle.
ReplyDeleteNone of my turn dates come from Bradley. They are from a proprietary timing cycle.
ReplyDeleteok kool still on target for 75 your thoughts
DeleteYes, looking very strong. Warming up nicely this week. The spike up is coming soon.
Deletethanks enjoy
DeleteStarting to feel "squeezy"!!
ReplyDeleteSCApril 7, 2017 at 8:25 AM
"My feeling is SPX should be down for a few days here, but after 5 weeks of decline the short trade is getting a little crowded.
I think this month will be characterized by whipsaws, and so an upside surprise and test of 2,400 could be lurking around the corner. That would clear up the crowded short trade..."
SPX testing the turquoise channel on my SPX chart. Breakout to 2,390 to 2,400 SPX imminent.
ReplyDeletecovered my short on uvxy pre market at 15.20
ReplyDeleteSPX spike up as expected. The brick wall of resistance is 2,400. It'll probably fall back to 2,350, then spike up again to test close to 2,400.
ReplyDeleteXIV $73 in a few days, dip to $68, and spike to $75 over the next week or so.
ReplyDeleteUVXY $14's, pop to $18 and drop to $11's over the next week.
ReplyDeletei agree i shorted at 18.50 19.50 and 20.5 thats why i covered
ReplyDeleteplenty of room to get back in
SC, do you think where we are this AM (2360s) on the gap up Monday will had back to 2350 then test 2400?
ReplyDeleteVery little upside particularly for SPX now at this level. I do think this rally will fizzle and cool off to 2,350. Then there will be another spike up.
DeleteI do see another spike up coming but it's a week away at least, and it'll cool off first.
ReplyDeleteOverall, great work SC, this is really getting to be fun!
ReplyDeleteThank you! The fun is just beginning!!
DeleteSold XIV at $72.00.
ReplyDeletesc when you refer to april 28th is that the 16 td top
ReplyDeleteThat is the principle behind T's. I used to post equal timing frequently, and it is really interesting.
DeleteNone of my dates come from that though. They all come from a timing cycle.
The problem with this type of market is that highs and lows can be bunched tightly together as we have seen Friday and today. So it's not critical that turns happen on certain days, but it is helpful to have a general estimate of timing.
so the plan ios buy uvxy at 14.5 and sell at 18
ReplyDeletethen bvuy xiv at 68 and sell over 75
Yes, that is the plan.
DeleteI 'm thinking uvxy is a buy in the next couple days..maybe end of week.. for 60% move on it..buy at 15ish sell at 23 24? by end of may? thats close to what my timing is saying?
Deleteit is my belief that we hit 238.29 to 238.46 on spy
ReplyDeletethats when the opportunity will be to buy uvxy just my opinion
any body buying uvxy here
ReplyDeletei'm waiting for at least another day, probably 2 or 3 days. i really want to see a doji or a spinning top on xiv
ReplyDeleteSVXY
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/allerotrot/status/856627217341833218
SC, nice job with XIV, great show of conviction.
ReplyDeleteThank you! The next moves look interesting...
Deletethis gap in es has to be filled but when usually in 1 to 2 days
ReplyDeleteanybody buying uvxy here looks like its headed for 14.20
SC, UVXY here for a trade? do you still see 28th as a high for turn date?
ReplyDeleteI'm going to wait until later in the week. UVXY can see around $11. The turn date this Friday does look like a high. SPX 2,400. XIV hasn't quite hit the white line yet.
ReplyDeleteLooks like XIV is meeting some resistance this morning around $74.50
ReplyDeleteVIX also rising with the market, a bit of divergence creeping in.
ReplyDeleteTrue SC I agree with you market looks on fire maybe next two might cool down then show time start happy trade cheers
ReplyDeleteHi SC I got dust long should I keep it or in and out is better of
ReplyDeleteWhile Silver has been weak Gold has still been holding better. Gold could see a higher high before it's ready for a decline it seems.
Deletelooks to me like gdx will get slaped to 20
ReplyDeleteSVXY sell signal...
ReplyDeletedoes that mean rotrot you will be going long uvxy
DeleteStrangely enough i think it might be time to be uvxy?
ReplyDeletedavid i drew a chanel from feb 15 to march 21 and the bottom looks like 12.03 however there is another downward channell from march 21 to 29 and down to about 14 .35 if it holds you might be right we will see its weird how market was up so much and uvxy was still strong
Deletei think we are going to bang out 2400 by friday in the spx
ReplyDeleteSC, do you still see spx drop to 2350 first?
ReplyDeleteFor SPX there's a wall of resistance at 2,400, and drop to 2,355 next week.
DeleteI'm interested in UVXY in the $13's later this week for a pop into the $15's next week. XIV might see a tiny dip here today/tomorrow, but I think it'll be higher for Friday.
ReplyDeleteSPX chart coming!
ReplyDelete