XIV has reached it's short term target, and a pullback is due. XIV has been trading in the white channel, but the slope is too steep, and appears unsustainable.
A pullback to the orange channel with a more gradual slope is likely to occur next.
SPX looks weak, and expect to see lower lows in April. What is interesting is that as SPX is declining, complacency is rising. So no bottom in SPX until the VIX spikes. Need to see fear to form a low in SPX.
i bought friday as well and traded out..i think oil might have to come off first, then at the last stages of that volatility pops. i'm watching biotech too...it still looks it has a bit of strength left?
your hang seng fractal looks valid...suggests a big bonce back up..and the bigger drop in a couple weeks, but i have 2 fractals an oil/spx and spx/spx that says this is this big one, no big bounces..troubling
I don't believe the final high is in place yet, the much-anticipated high that will usher in the next major correction. The pullback we saw yesterday is the 4th wave ahead of the 5th.
Today, UVXY came close to the target of $19. SPX may see a little lower yet around March 27th, but I'm not convinced that it translate into a higher UVXY at that time.
XIV came close enough to the white support today. It hasn't quite touched it, but I'm not convinced it has to either.
Beautiful backtest of broken 20 EMA. Seems like that 50 dma is a magnet. Also fib confluence there. Would expect tomorrow or Monday to hit and coincide with SC's turn dates http://schrts.co/x2zBtE
definitely possible ...looking at the last 2 weeks of april for a high in xiv...xiv down some tomorrow then back up more the next day, i think chopiness which hurts uvxy
look at the trades i saw it on time and sales 750000 shares green at BLOCK SUMMARY: [2017-03-30] : [ $UVXY ] : Total Volume[750,000] : Cumulative Avg[$15.78] : Day Close[$15.64] #UVXY long yes
Yes, I'll plan to re-enter UVXY around $15. XIV is high so I'm not interested. Basically I see XIV rattling around in the $70 to $75 range a few times before collapsing to $60.
If you have 4/6 turn date (which matches what I'm looking at), then I'd expected a down run during the 4/6-4/21 window (4/19 is midpiont of a turn window I have)...that would get us to 2280 I think
The last 9 turn windows highlighted in blue have led to declines for at least the first half. 1st half window would be 4/9 - 4/21. Will this be a 10th? http://imgur.com/a/PZxgh
Thanks interesting! My feeling is the timing is still a few weeks away for a larger move, but I expect chop so a minor move can happen following the turn date.
VIX is starting to pinch for a larger spike up, but it'll pinch (consolidate) for a few more weeks before it's ready in my opinion.
UVXY hit $17.50 this morning. Close to the target of $18. I decided to play it safe and exited early. It still might reach $18 (or might not), but UVXY is not at all ready for a big move.
SCMarch 28, 2017 at 9:04 AM
"UVXY may bounce up and down a few times in the $15 to $18 range before it melts up to $25 to $30."
So now I wait in cash to see as the turn date approaches on April 6th. If XIV comes down a little to $68 I would enter it. Otherwise will wait for UVXY around $15.
still seems like xiv is strong till middle of april maybe the end of april and I still think XIV may make a slightly higher high, at least match its previous high
It's all good. This is a choppy market. There are some really positive spots this month too. Many different ways to position for this market, and can all be successful.
My feeling is SPX should be down for a few days here, but after 5 weeks of decline the short trade is getting a little crowded.
I think this month will be characterized by whipsaws, and so an upside surprise and test of 2,400 could be lurking around the corner. That would clear up the crowded short trade...
The short term target of $72 for XIV was achieved. Took profits last week.
ReplyDeleteSCMarch 9, 2017 at 10:14 AM
"XIV $72 next week then it'll be ready for a dip to $60."
The UVXY $15 target was achieved on Friday.
ReplyDeleteSCFebruary 24, 2017 at 9:03 AM
"I'm interested in UVXY around $15."
Did u buy
DeleteFits nicely with a retest of 50 dma for XIV/VXX
ReplyDeletehttp://imgur.com/FW1oBll
i agree time to go long volatility
ReplyDeletedavid did you buy any i bought friday and traded out
DeleteWhere do you see SPX by March 27th and April 6th?
ReplyDeleteSPX looks weak, and expect to see lower lows in April. What is interesting is that as SPX is declining, complacency is rising. So no bottom in SPX until the VIX spikes. Need to see fear to form a low in SPX.
Deletesc are you thinking of buying uvxy here at this level or you are still looking for 15
ReplyDeletesc what price would you be willing to jump in on uvxy your thoughts
ReplyDeletebought 1000 uvxy at 15.90
ReplyDeletesold 1000 uvxy at 16.13
ReplyDeletei bought friday as well and traded out..i think oil might have to come off first, then at the last stages of that volatility pops. i'm watching biotech too...it still looks it has a bit of strength left?
ReplyDeleteoil to selloff first, followed by stock market?
DeleteBought UVXY at $16.05.
ReplyDeleteuvxy is very close to a buy ... today..a few days..
ReplyDeletebought uvxy back at 15.97
ReplyDeleteThe trump trade is losing steam. Internet searches for trump were #1 last week. Down to #5 today.
ReplyDeleteIt's fascinating to watch this unfolding.
ReplyDeleteThe high for SPX came in exactly on March 15th!
ReplyDeleteSPX may retest 2,390 at the end of this week with the next low 2,340 due March 27th.
SPX 2,380 high April 6th. Then SPX 2,270 April target.
DeleteHere SPX at each 100-pt level. A trip back down to weekly middle BB seems in order
ReplyDeletehttp://imgur.com/Ramzps1
maybe another couple weeks ..i dont think longer than 3 weeks
ReplyDeleteHope you're wrong about restesting 2390 this week!! HAHA
ReplyDeleteI figured it might try and retest that level, but it doesn't have to...
Deletelooks like it was yesterday, labd is a buy now too, and oil is showing weakness all looks good
ReplyDeleteSC
ReplyDeleteFantastic calls, you've been spot on!
Thank you! It's a fun market!!
Deletesc is the target on uvxy 19
ReplyDeleteYes for March $19.
DeleteDO YOU SEE A BIGGER MOVE IN APRIL TO POSSIBLY 24
DeleteDO WE PLAN ON SELLING AT 19 OR DO WE PLAN ON HOLDING FOR
DeleteHIGHER LEVELS INTO APRIL YOUR THOUGHTS
i dont believe this is the big move in uvxy i think theres still 3 weeks
ReplyDeleteWHAT ABOUT APRIL
ReplyDeleteYes I plan to take profit on UVXY $19. I'll look to reload around $16 and run to $25 in April.
ReplyDeleteI mean could just hold for April but I'll exit as I expect a bounce from March 27 to April 6th.
Deletethank you my friend if you need any thing call me 917 816 2794
DeleteHaha, thank you Louis!!
DeleteSC, you see lower for SPX?
ReplyDeleteA little lower for March but not much. Low due in a few days March 27th.
Deleteyour hang seng fractal looks valid...suggests a big bonce back up..and the bigger drop in a couple weeks, but i have 2 fractals an oil/spx and spx/spx that says this is this big one, no big bounces..troubling
ReplyDeleteI don't believe the final high is in place yet, the much-anticipated high that will usher in the next major correction. The pullback we saw yesterday is the 4th wave ahead of the 5th.
ReplyDeleteSold UVXY at $18.00.
ReplyDeleteToday, UVXY came close to the target of $19. SPX may see a little lower yet around March 27th, but I'm not convinced that it translate into a higher UVXY at that time.
ReplyDeleteXIV came close enough to the white support today. It hasn't quite touched it, but I'm not convinced it has to either.
So took profits...
great trade and great job i sold mine in the 18.20 so the game plan is to wait for 16 and to buy correct
DeleteThank you. I'd be interested first in XIV around $66 and then UVXY $16.
DeleteI still expect SPX to rally from March 27th to April 6th target around 2,380 SPX.
ReplyDeletei suspect this is a dead cats bounce today and tomorrow then short spx all next week down to 2280 ish
ReplyDeleteBoth targets SPX 2,340 and UVXY $19 have now been reached!
ReplyDeleteIt's still a few days early for the turn date though.
we didnt quite hit 65 on xiv are we still looking for that
Deleteyour thoughts
It's possible, but may have already hit the low.
DeleteBeautiful backtest of broken 20 EMA. Seems like that 50 dma is a magnet. Also fib confluence there. Would expect tomorrow or Monday to hit and coincide with SC's turn dates
ReplyDeletehttp://schrts.co/x2zBtE
Fantasic calls SC
ReplyDeleteAgreed, nice job.
ReplyDeleteBought XIV $66.20.
ReplyDeleteXIV should pop to $70 to $72. Low is due. Decent bounce next week.
DeleteWow, Nice buy SC!
ReplyDeleteThank you! Nice reaction to the white line for XIV!!
Deleteshorted uvxy at 19.81 covered at 18,21
Deleteanalysis on the money thank u
well its either a 10% correction begins next week mon-tues...or the spx bounces back, uvxy down, and we're looking more at the last 2 weeks of april..
ReplyDeletestill holding short from friday, i had to seeing as 2 major fractals showing a big down wave
ReplyDeletei was out of uvxy this morning at 19.2 looks like xiv is going back up...
ReplyDeleteBottomed on the turn date, and looking strong! Excellent!!
ReplyDeleteare you still looking to sell this at 72 and buy uvxy at 16 because instead of going long xiv i have been short uvxy
DeleteYes, that's the plan.
Deletethank u
DeleteStud call SC!! I wonder if we make it all the way to 4/6 though before next drop. We'll see!!
DeleteI expect this rally to stall in a few days for SPX. Then choppy until April 6.
Deletesc, target still 2380 SPX?
Delete2380 might be a little too high. 2365 SPX looks good.
DeleteIf 72 hit already this week, before April 6, do you sell or see higher targets For XIV?
ReplyDeleteI plan to exit this week. Best to play it safe.
DeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteIs this next XIV bounce to 72 the final high, or is it still supposed to target$100?
No this is not the final high for XIV. Just a pullback. The most exciting part is ahead.
DeleteSold XIV $72.30.
ReplyDeletegreat job brother made a killing on uvxy short when shouldwe buy uvxy 16 or less my charts have me at high 15,87
DeleteEverything according to plan. I'm interested in UVXY around $16.
Deleteyou might see that tomm i think the market is going to pop tomm
Deletei believe tommorow we hit 235 on spy
ReplyDeletewe might hit that today
Deletewow 15.92
DeleteBought UVXY at $16.00
ReplyDeleteUVXY may bounce up and down a few times in the $15 to $18 range before it melts up to $25 to $30.
DeletePlan to focus on UVXY until late April.
thanks again
Deletewhen you say 15 to 18 are you gonna trade in and out or your holding till end of april
DeleteI'll trade in and out until April 6th. Hold after that.
DeleteDo you have a specific late Apr date to target yet?
DeleteYes, I'll post that soon.
DeleteSC
ReplyDeletewhen will you exit UVXY for the next leg.. ?
Thanks
If it has a decent pop to $18 in the week I would sell. Otherwise I plan to exit on a stronger spike later in April.
Deletelooks like it will be a lot of sideways choppiness till end of april ...im staying out, if i had to choose id choose xiv but its going to be chop
ReplyDeletewhat would you choose xiv to short
Deletei say we make a marginally higher xiv at close to 77 before it uvxy is the play
ReplyDeleteknow that it closed at 74.40 you still think we hit 77
ReplyDeletedefinitely possible ...looking at the last 2 weeks of april for a high in xiv...xiv down some tomorrow then back up more the next day, i think chopiness which hurts uvxy
ReplyDeletebought more uvxy at 15.30
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeletesold all uvxy at 15.60 it is my belief that we pop up to 237n to 238 on spy in next few days that is where i will take my position on uvxy
ReplyDeletelong uvxy in after market 15.52
ReplyDeleteS&P 2415 next.
ReplyDeleteAAPL has to get to 148. Then it will go to 134-136.
UVXY 14.97 minimum, possible collapse into 13s.
ReplyDeletei dont see collapse into 13s but you could tag 14.70
Deletebut i have my doubts
s and p trading strong uvxy moving up seems to be a good sign
ReplyDeleteout of uvxy 15.85 waiting for better entry
ReplyDelete750000 block trade uvxy 15.78
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete11 million dollars i mean
DeleteNo. Where is your info from?
DeleteLong? Not short?
look at the trades i saw it on time and sales 750000 shares green at BLOCK SUMMARY: [2017-03-30] : [ $UVXY ] : Total Volume[750,000] : Cumulative Avg[$15.78] : Day Close[$15.64] #UVXY long yes
Deletemaybe george soros or marc faber or carl ichan
ReplyDeletehttp://thesovereigninvestor.com/exclusives/billionaires-bet-big-market-crash-reason-shocking/
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/26/when-selling-starts-in-markets-itll-trigger-an-avalanche-marc-faber-says.html
Louis, was that a long or short $B uvxy trade?
ReplyDeleteit was done at 15.78 green trade but could be misleading just wanted to bring to everyones attention
DeleteThere is a big speculator or hedger in VIX options.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/31/mysterious-trader-known-as-50-cent-bets-millions-on-volatility-spike.html
kool i saw this
Deleteweird action vix up 65 cents and this cant break 16 bucks
DeleteSPX looking very weak. A test of 2,330 looks possible next.
ReplyDeleteSC, 2330 next week?
Deletehow much of a percentage of your trading capital should be
Deletepiut in uvxy your thoughts
Would that conflict with your 4/6 turn date?
DeleteWe were around 2320 5 days ago...
DeleteCheck cot. For emini and spx. Commercial short nig time
ReplyDeletelooks to me we could be over 20 by thursday
ReplyDeletei believe uvxy will be over 18 very soon
ReplyDeleteXIV does look likely to collapse about 20% to around $60 this month.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the high is due this week. Most likely is that it spends a few weeks churning at the high before it collapses.
XIV sideways for a few weeks above $70.
DeleteSold UVXY $16.60.
ReplyDeleteI'll wait and see how things look on the turn date. High due April 6th.
ReplyDeletesold with ya 16.69 your thoughts buy before april 8th in low 15
ReplyDeleteYes, I'll plan to re-enter UVXY around $15. XIV is high so I'm not interested. Basically I see XIV rattling around in the $70 to $75 range a few times before collapsing to $60.
ReplyDeleteI doubt anything major happens for a few weeks.
SPX might see a little higher before it's ready to turn down. 2,380 or even a test of close to 2,400 is possible this month before it collapses.
ReplyDeletesc, so 2330 then 2380-2400 next for SPX?
DeleteIn theory the low of 2,330 SPX could re retested, but it may not quite get that low either. I think SPX will do okay for a few weeks next.
DeleteSPX may try to retest last Monday's March 27 low first, but I do think SPX will test close to 2,400 about 2 weeks from now.
DeleteSPX rose too fast last week. So it needed to cool off here, but Cycles are turning positive in my view for April.
If you have 4/6 turn date (which matches what I'm looking at), then I'd expected a down run during the 4/6-4/21 window (4/19 is midpiont of a turn window I have)...that would get us to 2280 I think
DeleteThe last 9 turn windows highlighted in blue have led to declines for at least the first half. 1st half window would be 4/9 - 4/21. Will this be a 10th? http://imgur.com/a/PZxgh
DeleteThanks interesting! My feeling is the timing is still a few weeks away for a larger move, but I expect chop so a minor move can happen following the turn date.
DeleteVIX is starting to pinch for a larger spike up, but it'll pinch (consolidate) for a few more weeks before it's ready in my opinion.
Anyway, we are getting closer...
DeleteI'm in cash and will wait and see the next few days.
ReplyDeleteUVXY hit $17.50 this morning. Close to the target of $18. I decided to play it safe and exited early. It still might reach $18 (or might not), but UVXY is not at all ready for a big move.
ReplyDeleteSCMarch 28, 2017 at 9:04 AM
"UVXY may bounce up and down a few times in the $15 to $18 range before it melts up to $25 to $30."
So no UVXY melt up to $30 anytime soon?
DeleteThe meltup is coming, but there is consolidation first with a few moves. The timing is not ready yet.
DeleteSo now I wait in cash to see as the turn date approaches on April 6th. If XIV comes down a little to $68 I would enter it. Otherwise will wait for UVXY around $15.
ReplyDeleteSC, after 4/6, what's the next turn date you see? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteApril 19th.
Deletestill seems like xiv is strong till middle of april maybe the end of april and I still think XIV may make a slightly higher high, at least match its previous high
ReplyDeleteAccording to the 60 Minute chart I have that down trend line going low 14 uvxy could be possible
Deleteuvxy in the low $15, u looking to buy today SC?
ReplyDeletesub $14 for UVXY could be possible considering the turn date tomorrow...
ReplyDeleteSC your thoughts ...
SC, When do you intend to enter UVXY?
ReplyDeletei believe he said 15 and xiv at 68
Deletegee just wondering if that was the bottom
ReplyDeletegee i wonder if that had anything to do with Janette yellen
ReplyDeletesaying she wants to sell 4.5 trillion in bonds
The 16 TD top is due late Thursday plus or minus, so likely late Friday.
ReplyDeleteWe have seen the market's reaction as it approached the turn date. It collapsed.
ReplyDeleteI'm expecting prices to drop for a few days here. SPX can see 2,340 and XIV $68 or $69.
ReplyDeleteThere should be a bounce next week though.
Next week I see another spot to short at SPX 2,380 SPX and XIV $75.
I may enter UVXY for a small trade into the $17's.
ReplyDeleteBought UVXY $16.55.
ReplyDeleteUVXY could see $18 tomorrow, and $15 next week.
ReplyDeletewhat is your target for end of month april is it still 25 in uvxy your thoughts
DeleteYes, UVXY on track for $25.
Deletethanks
DeleteI still think there is 1 more high in xiv back to 75 maybe 76 but the market is really unstable.
ReplyDeleteyou keep saying that didnt we hit that yesterday
DeleteI see xiv topping middle of april...uvxy topping at 25 middle to end of may
ReplyDeletemore like 15 before 18
DeleteWow, VIX and UVXY destroyed. V shape bottom for S&P, again. No surprise at all.
ReplyDeletei wouldnt be betting against sc remember xiv 66 to 72
DeleteIt's all good. This is a choppy market. There are some really positive spots this month too. Many different ways to position for this market, and can all be successful.
Deletei agree i think we pop up monday
DeleteI'm staying short. SPX 2,315 looks possible next.
ReplyDeleteUVXY targets still $18 then $15?
DeleteYes, $18. Looking to take profits soon.
Deleteprobally 2336
ReplyDeletei have 2280 by april 24
ReplyDeleteSC IS THERE ANYWAY WE COULD GET NOTIFIED BY EMAIL ABOUT U OR PEOPLE TALKING ON YOUR BLOG OR POSSIBLE A TEXT YOUR THOUGHTS
ReplyDeleteI'll look into that. It is a fast paced market for sure.
DeleteTHANK U
DeleteWonder if you are on stocktwits.com?
DeleteSC. Thanks for sharing your knowledge over the years.
DeleteThank you! You are very welcome!
DeleteI'm still interested in XIV $68.
ReplyDeleteWhen do you think the best number to exit on uvxy
DeleteSold UVXY at $17.45.
ReplyDeleteDidn't get the best entry in the $15's and had to chase in the $16's. So decided to play it safe and take profits.
DeleteMy feeling is SPX should be down for a few days here, but after 5 weeks of decline the short trade is getting a little crowded.
ReplyDeleteI think this month will be characterized by whipsaws, and so an upside surprise and test of 2,400 could be lurking around the corner. That would clear up the crowded short trade...
I do see larger declines for SPX later in the month, but bounce first.
DeleteI'll wait in cash for a long entry next week.
ReplyDeleteI would like to see prices come down a little more first though.
DeleteWe're in an expanding pattern. The moves will be larger and larger as we get into later April, May, and June.
ReplyDeleteSO THE PLAN IS STILL UVXY 15 BUY XIV BUY 68
ReplyDeleteYes, same plan.
DeleteGreat trade SC, do you still see SPX test 2315 next?
ReplyDeleteI do have a target down there, but not quite yet. Right now we are basically in the middle of a trading range. Support 2,300, and resistance 2,400.
DeleteI expect we'll test the top end of the range near 2,400 SPX first and then down.
New chart posted!
ReplyDelete