A Bear Market is defined as a decline of greater than 20% from the high. According to the Cycle a decline of greater than 20% is forecast to occur next.
The 2017 Bear Market is initiating.
2-day Chart
2017 Bear Market Cycle:
Saturday, February 11, 2017
$SPX - 2017 Cycle - Bull Market is Over
The Bull Market from 2009 is terminating at red resistance.
A Bear Market is defined as a decline of greater than 20% from the high. According to the Cycle a decline of greater than 20% is forecast to occur next.
The 2017 Bear Market is initiating.
2-day Chart
2017 Bear Market Cycle:
A Bear Market is defined as a decline of greater than 20% from the high. According to the Cycle a decline of greater than 20% is forecast to occur next.
The 2017 Bear Market is initiating.
2-day Chart
2017 Bear Market Cycle:
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why call a bear market when we are at all time highs? shouldnt we trade level by level and have stops rather than start loading the boat on shorts on these charts that may not happen, PRICE IS TRUTH!
ReplyDeleteThe advantage to cycle analysis is to identify turning points in the market. Vix is at 10. It's a very complacent market currently.
ReplyDeleteThe above formation looks like head and shoulder. If neck is broken. Do u expect 500 spx in 2020 as manybare saying
ReplyDeleteNo just a regular bear market. An undershoot of the red neckline does look likely given the Cycle, but it will not break.
DeleteThank you, great observation.
Is this going to be like the collapse in Ag' which BTW is destined to give a "golden cross" on its weekly within a month?
ReplyDeleteSC, are you still waiting until the 22nd to buy UVXY?
ReplyDeleteCurrently I'm looking to increase my half position to a full position. I probably will add before that. As well I'm going to continue to increase the position to overweight.
DeleteThis is a perfect situation for UVXY. Yes it can come a little lower, but it looks extremely attractive.
Didn't the cycle analysis also call for a feb 6th high?
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteNot quite sure how above is supposed to translate UVXY $50 (down from $150 8 weeks ago).
This is a 2 yr chart and XIV could reach easily reach $100 first.
There's 2 targets for UVXY. The first target of $50 corresponds with the initial SPX dip to the pink line. Ultimately a $150 target corresponds with the brown/blue arrow lows for SPX.
DeleteThe Cycle shows SPX dropping in a normal, average bear market. Also just a test of the 2016 lows and support.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't add UVXY until the vix pops, waiting will not hurt if we have a down move. They will hold this up until the IPO's and earnings are done....Sell in May is making a comeback this year, shorting before then will hurt, just like the last 3 months
ReplyDeletei also believe a collapse is coming but when march or april
ReplyDeletethats the question
Hey SC
ReplyDeleteso we still looking for UVXy to get to $15 before the first leg upto $50 ...
thanks again for your time and hard work
always greatly appreciated...
It could still see the $15 target area.
DeleteSC - when do you expect the first drop to the pink line to occur? 1/2 months from now?
ReplyDeleteThis is one event to watch. Markets have moved around the event historically:
Delete"In a news release on Wednesday, Trump’s Treasury Department gently reminded Congress that the government will be unable to borrow to pay its bills after March 15 unless legislators vote to lift the debt limit."
The market is forming the blow off top currently, and this could take longer to finish. The low itself could take several months to form at the pink line as well.
DeleteVery interesting - so this could be a replay then of 2011 waterfall crash...
DeleteThere is some similarity to the situation in 2011. Based on the cycle though the largest drops will be later in the year.
DeleteUVXY getting hammered
ReplyDeleteSC may be correct on this call :-)
thanks again
the lower it goes the better returns for us shareholders...
issue us when to buy :-)
Happy Investing
90 percent he will be
DeleteCan you explain why the feb 6th top call was wrong?
ReplyDeleteI didn't call for a top on Feb 6th. Just a potential turn date. I see this as a blow off top forming.
DeleteI figured the top would likely form around 2,350 SPX. Just an estimate.
DeleteSCJanuary 31, 2017 at 9:59 AM
"Potentially 2,350 area SPX."
Bought UVXY at $19.25. Increased to full position. It may still come lower, and I plan to increase to overweight.
ReplyDeleteDoubled the size of my position today to a full, normal size position. I do plan to increase the positon to overweight soon.
ReplyDeleteCost $28.50 average to date.
I decided to pyramid on the entry which was a good decision.
It's not for a short term trade. Price may well see lower short term. I am looking at a about a 3 month timeframe.
VIX isn't coming down much today...
ReplyDeleteVIX was up yesterday.
Deletesc do u still have 15 dollar target
DeleteYes, I do, but it might pop first.
Deletewhen u say pop how high
DeleteSmall pop to low $20's.
Deletewhen yo say low 20s what does that mean 21 22 23
DeleteYes, I may be interested in closing the position on a pop. If I see the opportunity to close on a pop and enter lower I will take advantage.
DeleteLouis, have a look at the XIV chart just posted, quite interesting.
DeleteI have charts coming to show the details of how and when the topping process unfolds. Obviously the chart above is big picture.
ReplyDeleteNo, no 100% just means 100% of a regular position size, not a portfolio. So for average situations the strategy is to establish a regular position size. For more favorable low risk and high reward major move situations then an overweight position can be established.
ReplyDeleteThere is ample evidence to conclude that the market will roll over into a bear this year. However, the model shows a clear double top formation that will take months. So we will see whipsaws, and that is great for trading. It is too early to short and hold. It is inefficient to hold any position (short or long) through whipsaws so I will be trading. Once the topping process has matured then yes, short and hold with overweight position size becomes the optimal strategy.
Hope this helps clarify. Thank you very much for the kind words! All the best to you as well!
ReplyDeletelittle confused,2350 target reached, why still see UVXY 15 ?
ReplyDeleteYes, the target has been reached, but chop is likely which could grind it lower.
DeleteNew analysis posted!
ReplyDelete