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Tuesday, December 20, 2016

UVXY - Before/After - Next Targets!

UVXY has nearly reached it's target identified in September analysis.  UVXY is currently trading around the white trendline though could undershoot the line. 

This is an interesting setup for UVXY with an initial target of $10 and a higher potential target of $30.

2-hour Chart
















Before: September 14, 2016

Daily Chart
















Posted by at

73 comments:

  1. SCDecember 20, 2016 at 7:13 AM

    Ideally UVXY should undershoot the white line so it may still have a few dollars downside before it is ready.

    It does look to be an excellent setup!

    ReplyDelete
  2. SCDecember 20, 2016 at 7:24 AM

    In this case I may look to start building a position with an initial block in the $7's and then if it comes lower add.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. louis lombardiDecember 20, 2016 at 10:04 AM

      when you say 7s do u mean 7.50

      Delete
    2. SCDecember 20, 2016 at 10:42 AM

      Price for UVXY already looks attractive, but it'll probably come lower. $5, $6, $7 are all possible here. At $7.50 I would be interested in starting to build a position and then increase from there.

      It should spike up very quickly to around $10 once it bottoms out.

      Delete
  3. rose2797December 20, 2016 at 8:35 AM

    sC what will be app targets of sp500 when uvxy at 12 and 30

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCDecember 20, 2016 at 10:48 AM

      Dow 20,000 is a given. SPX may see 2295 then I expect it can pull back to 2230, and probably see 2300. So SPX may not top until January. 10% correction looks likely early next year, but forming the top can take a month.

      Delete
    2. SKY8December 20, 2016 at 2:14 PM

      SC, so this is the path you see 2295--2230--2300--2100, right?

      Delete
    3. SCDecember 21, 2016 at 9:02 AM

      Yes, those are targets. My low target is 2040 SPX.

      Delete
  4. SCDecember 20, 2016 at 10:56 AM

    2016 was a quiet year for the market. A year of consolidation. Notably the politics were interesting, of course, but as always the market knows best and was relatively quiet.

    Silver is a good short, but I see Silver as a longer term short play of several years.

    ReplyDelete
  5. SCDecember 22, 2016 at 8:02 AM

    Bought 50% UVXY at $7.60.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCDecember 22, 2016 at 8:17 AM

      UVXY hasn't undershot the white line much yet. So it may come a little lower yet, but still the upside looks very appealing at this level.

      Delete
    2. SKY8December 22, 2016 at 3:13 PM

      SC, great entry, what level could you add the other 50%? Or are you only looking to add below $7?

      Delete
  6. EcommerceDecember 22, 2016 at 8:25 AM

    Thank you SC
    So target for UVXY around $10 ,,, and a possibility of running to $30ish in coming months

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCDecember 22, 2016 at 9:18 AM

      Yes $10 UVXY initially then it should cool off to form basically a double bottom over the next month. After that $30.

      Delete
  7. louis lombardiDecember 22, 2016 at 3:48 PM

    Just curious proshares just announced a split uvxy what are your thoughts about the split that's going to happen 1 for 5reverse on January 17th this happened on Seeking Alpha that's what you could find this news

    ReplyDelete
  8. JGDecember 22, 2016 at 4:16 PM

    SC, looks like UVXY will 5:1 reverse split on Jan 12, 2017...
    your thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
  9. louis lombardiDecember 22, 2016 at 5:51 PM

    http://seekingalpha.com/news/3232314-proshares-announces-splits-reverse-splits-13-levered-etfs

    i believe that uvxy is doing a split how do you feel about that

    ReplyDelete
  10. SCDecember 27, 2016 at 5:35 AM

    It's likely that UVXY pops to $10 before the reverse split. The plan is to exit the position on that pop so it's not an issue.

    ReplyDelete
  11. AMDecember 27, 2016 at 7:03 AM

    SC,

    How much capital do you risk per each trade as a percentage of your total trading balance?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCDecember 28, 2016 at 1:34 AM

      It all depends on the situation and other opportunities that are available. Generally, the smaller cycles are underweight and the larger cycles are overweight.

      Delete
  12. louis lombardiDecember 27, 2016 at 7:15 AM

    amazing how vix and vxn up no movement uvxy weird

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCDecember 28, 2016 at 1:43 AM

      It's probably because we are close to a significant turning point.

      Delete
  13. SCDecember 28, 2016 at 1:42 AM

    The Cycle shows 2017 similar to 2016 for the S&P. Weak in the first half and strong in the second half of the year.

    Up in 2017!

    ReplyDelete
  14. SamDecember 28, 2016 at 10:01 PM

    Would you switch to XIV when SPX close to 2230, should be a good pop for the run to SPX 2300? Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCDecember 30, 2016 at 7:35 AM

      Well as a rule it's best to avoid attempting to catch the last move in a run. Sometimes they truncate or are minimal. So the plan is to focus on UVXY for the next 3 months.

      Delete
    2. SCDecember 30, 2016 at 7:37 AM

      Later in the year there is a great spot for XIV, but for now I'm showing support for XIV way down at $25.

      Delete
    3. SamDecember 30, 2016 at 7:49 AM

      Thanks SC, are you still looking to exit around $10?

      Delete
    4. SCDecember 30, 2016 at 9:10 AM

      Yes, I am. The market is starting to look very weak. The downturn is near.

      Delete
  15. joedJanuary 2, 2017 at 5:46 AM

    XIV

    http://mymarketgeometry.com/

    ReplyDelete
  16. louis lombardiJanuary 4, 2017 at 9:04 AM

    wondering if its wise to biuy more uvxy anybody

    ReplyDelete
  17. SCJanuary 5, 2017 at 6:26 AM

    UVXY is squarely in the target zone. However, it is still trading at the white line. An undershoot would be ideal.

    Next turn date is Jan 9th. I'll wait and see to add UVXY closer to $5.

    ReplyDelete
  18. SCJanuary 5, 2017 at 6:38 AM

    Turn dates Jan 9th, Jan 24th, and Feb 22nd. Expect a drop for the market into February.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Dennis TJanuary 5, 2017 at 9:34 AM

    Any thoughts on gold? I'm thinking it will go up to $1200 resistance and then drop.

    ReplyDelete
  20. SCJanuary 5, 2017 at 10:04 AM

    Tend to agree for gold. Every bounce to fail for the next year and a half for gold. According to the cycle this is a major downtrend for gold.

    ReplyDelete
  21. PayDayJanuary 5, 2017 at 2:46 PM

    SC, you still anticipating $30 for UVXY or is that $30 after the split?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCJanuary 6, 2017 at 5:21 AM

      The post split adjusted target for UVXY is $120 to $150.

      Delete
    2. louis lombardiJanuary 6, 2017 at 6:38 AM

      so sc you are saying that it will split before it moves correct me if i am wrong

      Delete
    3. SCJanuary 6, 2017 at 8:49 AM

      I've outlined 2 targets. $10 first target and $30 second target. Both of those are pre-split figures. The expectation is that the first move is due during the Jan/Feb time frame. If the first move happens post split then the adjusted target is $50.

      The second move will unquestionably be post split. That target is $120 to $150.

      I'll be looking to exit on the first move and rebuild a position for the second larger move.

      Delete
  22. SqrootJanuary 6, 2017 at 7:22 AM

    @NorthmanTrader
    In the year 2007 $VIX went to 9.87 in January. The $VIX then spiked to 37.5 by summer and then peaked at 89 in 2008.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCJanuary 6, 2017 at 8:37 AM

      Thank you! My VIX Cycle shows 10 VIX then 50 VIX to be tested. 50 is a retest of the high in 2015. The Cycle shows a retest of that high.

      Delete
  23. MikeJanuary 6, 2017 at 9:09 AM

    SC, if UVXY not in the $5 area next Monday the turn date, would you still buy or wait?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCJanuary 6, 2017 at 10:15 AM

      This is why I've strategized to enter in blocks. Start building a position early and then add.

      If not Monday then I would wait until around the next turn date of Jan 24th which is just after the inauguration of Trump. Quite possible even most probable that is important timing.

      Delete
    2. MikeJanuary 6, 2017 at 4:44 PM

      thanks, understood, so here price is more important than the turn date, price is king

      Delete
  24. SKY8January 10, 2017 at 4:51 PM

    SC, do you think the market topped or still can make 2300? Thank you

    ReplyDelete
  25. SCJanuary 11, 2017 at 7:55 AM

    I'll wait to see next week.

    ReplyDelete
  26. louis lombardiJanuary 12, 2017 at 4:23 AM

    sc do you think uvxy is a good buy here at this level or it will drift lower. your thoughts thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCJanuary 18, 2017 at 10:18 AM

      Drift lower, but the turn is getting close.

      Delete
  27. SKY8January 12, 2017 at 2:54 PM

    Still holding my UVXY, bit frustrating, do you see high 5s or low 5s?

    ReplyDelete
  28. SamJanuary 13, 2017 at 5:43 AM

    sc, for UVXY double bottom, we still at 1st bottom with $50 next or forming 2nd bottom with $150 next? thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCJanuary 18, 2017 at 10:19 AM

      Forming 1st bottom. It's shaping up nicely.

      Delete
  29. dc-BEARJanuary 13, 2017 at 9:08 AM

    UVXY may likely go lower into OpEx week...and next week's SP500 high may likely become THE high for a bit...if so, UVXY may likely become a very attractive buy next week... just a guess.

    ReplyDelete
  30. UnknownJanuary 16, 2017 at 9:26 AM

    @ dc-Bear, I think so too...S&P500 RSI Bearish Divergence and VIX RSI Bullish Divergence in progress...so we're getting close to a High.

    The S&P500 and VIX divergence is explained here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1mhwx3SZII

    ReplyDelete
  31. louis lombardiJanuary 17, 2017 at 7:57 AM

    weekly point of control is 226.80 a move above that would mean neckline of 227.40 on spy amove above that would measn 230

    ReplyDelete
  32. louis lombardiJanuary 18, 2017 at 8:05 AM

    everybody still alive

    ReplyDelete
  33. SCJanuary 18, 2017 at 10:21 AM

    Market conditions are deteriorating on a daily basis. Slowly but surely momentum is disappearing. I'll be shorting more this week or next.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Be CarefulJanuary 18, 2017 at 12:18 PM

    Market to be much higher on Friday.

    ReplyDelete
  35. FestusJanuary 18, 2017 at 3:39 PM

    How's this one working out?

    ReplyDelete
  36. UnknownJanuary 18, 2017 at 10:08 PM

    Hi all, I found a very interesting pattern in the daily chart...if it plays out like the last 2 times, then 2292-2300 (maybe 2320) is in the cards for today/tomorrow and followed by a break to the downside of at least 100 points into FEB 10.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMOvSjT4IyM

    ReplyDelete
  37. Be CarefulJanuary 19, 2017 at 6:06 AM

    2191 is the hard bottom for any down moves. Nothing spectacular through February.

    ReplyDelete
  38. SamJanuary 19, 2017 at 12:49 PM

    last turn date is a high, would like SPX just stay high not drop into the next turn date 24th, your thoughts, SC?

    ReplyDelete
  39. SamJanuary 19, 2017 at 5:25 PM

    with that said, sell the news or not, Trump would probably want the market to corrected now, then when the market finally gets Dow 20k, he can get the credits

    ReplyDelete
  40. UnknownJanuary 19, 2017 at 10:44 PM

    Hi all,

    I noticed divergence between the Nasdaq and the DOW Jones Industrial. If history repeats itself, then we should expect a bearish bias for the next couple of weeks.

    Based on this pattern, I will show you guys two strategies how to use this information. Check it out here!

    If you like it, then please share it!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yI6MOpRHyfk

    ReplyDelete
  41. dc-BEARJanuary 20, 2017 at 6:51 AM

    ...and welcome to OpEx...and welcome to Trump's America. Maybe it's finally be time to consider UVXY...assuming today's rally holds...and if it does hold, then maybe there will be some follow thru rallying into Monday, too, before a highly likely yet always 'unexpected' pullback...but that's just another guess.

    ReplyDelete
  42. MikeJanuary 20, 2017 at 8:13 AM

    SC u buying today?

    ReplyDelete
  43. SCJanuary 20, 2017 at 11:20 AM

    I may wait for early next week. The market is about to drop for 4 to 6 months!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownJanuary 20, 2017 at 12:15 PM

      Any targets on the drop in SPX? (when UVXY is around 150)

      Delete
    2. SCJanuary 23, 2017 at 6:43 PM

      I'll post an SPX chart soon.

      Delete
  44. louis lombardiJanuary 23, 2017 at 7:32 AM

    sc u buying more uvxy whats tyour thoughts

    ReplyDelete
  45. louis lombardiJanuary 23, 2017 at 4:33 PM

    markets look like there topping2200 coming soon

    ReplyDelete
  46. SCJanuary 23, 2017 at 6:43 PM

    Update posted!

    ReplyDelete

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