However, the next date for the high is coming due tomorrow, June 30th. XIV is approaching major short term turquoise resistance just above. A retest of the low is probable.
15min Chart
XIV tested the main pink support. Still trending up.
Daily Chart
Wednesday, June 29, 2016
XIV - Short Term Outlook with Longer Term Target
XIV tested the main pink support and the reaction has been quite strong. Therefore, it is likely that XIV has bottomed.
However, the next date for the high is coming due tomorrow, June 30th. XIV is approaching major short term turquoise resistance just above. A retest of the low is probable.
15min Chart
XIV tested the main pink support. Still trending up.
Daily Chart
However, the next date for the high is coming due tomorrow, June 30th. XIV is approaching major short term turquoise resistance just above. A retest of the low is probable.
15min Chart
XIV tested the main pink support. Still trending up.
Daily Chart
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The volatility is going to continue through July and into August.
ReplyDeleteSC, so SPX has likely already bottomed too and you don't see 1960? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteSPX still looks weak. Much weaker than XIV. Similar to what happened in May.
DeleteHow does this fit with your UVXY chart you forecasted? So now you dont believe that UVXY will not make it to 18s..thanks
ReplyDeleteThe first move on the UVXY was correct, but it failed at the brown support. It'll still pop well next, but to around $15.
DeleteThe SPX chart with July targets still looks good. No changes. Everything going according to plan!
ReplyDeleteThe lower pink support for UVXY is around $9.50.
ReplyDeleteThen target $14's to $15.
DeleteWe're close to the target of 2060 SPX outlined on the SPX analysis for this week.
ReplyDelete2020 next?
DeleteYes high is due tomorrow June 30th. We have seen the explosive move up to 2,060.
DeleteNext target 2,000 to 2,020 SPX. The Cycle drops into July 12.
FTSE erases Brexit crash in 72 hours. Bull. Good god...the strength.
ReplyDeleteBottom in. Let's see how the retrace goes. 2080 to 2055.
ReplyDeleteXIV has reached the turquoise line today. Overthrow still possible. My original target of $26 might be close if it does overthrow.
ReplyDeleteSame situation for SPX. Overthrow possible, but hitting a lot of resistance at this level.
ReplyDeleteVIX starting to see support.
The market has a memory.
ReplyDeleteThis was an elastic band move. The market stretched down and then back up again to where it should be in the Cycle at this time.
The problem for the bulls is that the Cycle is topping. Volatility is leading this decline in SPX which is just beginning.
Notice XIV is making a lower high than Monday's high while SPX is higher. Bearish...
Good SC.
ReplyDeleteAt what price (SPX) you are willing to admit that you are wrong?
All the best
Big drop is coming Thursday Friday Monday minimum 2020
ReplyDeleteHi Louis, it would be interesting to see what happens next after an 80 point pump in futures in just 2 days!!
DeleteDropping on Monday will be tough. It's my birthday and they always close the market on my birthday, but lookout Tuesday.
Deleteyou say that based on what?
ReplyDeleteFriday will be bloody. Will open uvxy call tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteyou've been spot on thus far. Let's see if we get the bloodbath tomorrow.
DeleteI closed most of the longs yesterday, decent proft as I overweight longs in the 1990-2110 area. I also agree with your view, and will wait for a Higher Low to overweight longs once again. JUN 28, the 70 day cycle, was once again spot on.
ReplyDeleteThis is my current view (weekly, daily and 4h chart)
http://tripstrading.com/2016/06/30/sp500-buy-lows-megaphone-patterns-next-cycle-dates/
Enjoy the day all!
True they say first intuition is best we all make some mistakes
ReplyDelete2127 soon. Then 2137. 2050 will hold. We have more up up....the Fed will reach 3% rate before Bull stops. Lots of time to pass yet. Jeremy Grantham thinks you can start getting nervous at about 2300.
ReplyDeleteHigh in the SPX due today June 30th. Next low is due July 12th.
ReplyDeletei agree i bought more uvxy
Deleteyour gonna have a pull back to 205 206 area the resume higher
ReplyDeleteWOW
ReplyDeletereally SPX flying and UVXY making new lows , incredible markets... like nothing happened
Sc, 2080 already hit, do you think timing will change
ReplyDeleteThe next low is due July 12th.
Deletelooks like 2100 to 2119 to me
ReplyDeletethere is a very good chance that we reach 2108 by tomm
ReplyDeleteFTSE, the center of Brexit, hits 52 week high today. Read that sentence again. Market paradigms are changing.
ReplyDeleteSC, is there a possibility we go to all time highs from here without revisiting spx 2000 or below ?
ReplyDeleteNot now.
DeleteThe Cycle has turned down and so drop next into July 12. After that later in July there is a positive Cycle.
The problem with the market has nothing to do with brexit.
ReplyDeleteIt has everything to do with the fact it is once again testing the same horizontal resistance that it has bumped up against at 2100 for the last year and a half.
The failure rate at the horizontal resistance in every test has been 100%.
Today's "breaking rumours" oops breaking "news":
ReplyDelete"Markets appear to be wagering a Brexit will either be benign or will not happen, BlackRock's Jeff Rosenberg said."
SCJune 24, 2016 at 8:38 AM
"This brexit is just a referendum. The government can choose to stay or leave as they please as I understand it. What always happens in these situations is that the rumours start to flow. Rumours of "remain in" could start next week..."
we will probally go up to 2125 then down to 1800 in july
ReplyDeletei am loading up on uvxy
regardless brother 2096 2100 or 2109 we are gonna hit 2050
ReplyDeleteprobally next week then bounce up to 2110
then down hard into the end of month thats what i believe but that could change
SPX 2040 minimum by July 12th. XIV $21 by July 12th.
DeleteHigh for SPX due today, but with the holiday, the drop probably starts slowly then accelerates down into July 12th.
July 12th is only 7 trading days!
SC, that translates for UXVY to around $12s?
DeleteYes, chart with support resistance coming!
DeleteThis is the most perfect V I've ever seen in the market. A straight line up. I'll feel blessed if we even see 2065 now :(
ReplyDeletei think u will next week
Deletehuge open interest 210 calls for this friday
ReplyDeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete