VIX did, in fact, find resistance in the low 30's, and is now at historically significant support. The VIX Cycle shows a spike up to complete the brown arrow Cycle high in late February.
Prepare for a wild ride!
30min Chart
January 17th, 2016:
"The action in VIX recently has been relatively quiet though, and VIX tested 30 last week which historically has been a significant resistance. Short term support is around 20.
There is no panic currently."
Weekly Chart
VIX Cycle 1:
Well, SPX did rise into end of January as expected. Now watch the trap door open. This is a perfect setup for a plunge...
ReplyDeleteSCJanuary 20, 2016 at 8:13 PM
"Sideways and a slow grind up next likely into end of January."
Do you mean a big gap down and close on the low type of day?
ReplyDeleteSC, 1830 next?
ReplyDeleteSPX should recover today, but yes the plunge coming.
DeleteDo u think plunge will happen this week?
ReplyDeleteYes it's likely the plunge completes this week because the SPX Cycle shows a high next week.
DeleteLooks like the plunge is happening already! :). Let's see if it continues tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteGood Call SC!
ReplyDeleteThank you!
DeleteSC, what level for XIV would interest you?
ReplyDeleteXIV should see $21 next week. It could be early, but it is starting to look attractive at this level.
DeleteSC, How does the next week look like in terms of VIX movement range?
ReplyDeleteI'm expecting to see a strong rally for SPX next week, and VIX to slump.
DeleteTarget for SPX next week is around 1975, and it should touch the 50 dma.
DeleteIs the big drop off the table for now?
ReplyDeleteWe're in the middle of the range right now. Next week expect a higher market. Then the larger plunge still coming in February.
Deletethe 2 vix out of range spike candles over last 7 days have precluded a run up of equities. Dates are the Jan.27th and today
ReplyDeleteHaving a hard time figuring these 2 incidents out...gigantic put orders to make them happen
SC, which date is the cycle high next week?
ReplyDeleteHigh February 8th, then it turns down and a major low February 19th or 26th.
DeleteThanks SC, March 10 is the next ECB monetary policy meeting and will almost certainly to ease further aggressively, agreed that a possible major low before that.
ReplyDeleteHmmm interesting given the timeline...
DeleteYour cycle dates are most likely accurate yet the actual cycle is inverted
ReplyDeleteSC, the Feb 8th turn date seems to be the low instead of the high, do you still see a strong rally to SPX 1975 next week?
ReplyDeleteYes, still the same. Higher next week. The Cycle is up.
DeleteSC, looking a market conditions this morning (Monday), where do you think a short term bottom is for SPX and for XIV?
ReplyDeleteWe reached the first target 1830 for SPX as expected.
DeleteXIV retested the low, $20 next.
SC, when slv will and what will be the low and whe
ReplyDeleteSLV rising towards $17 target as expected. There is some resistance in the $15's though, and that will take some time to penetrate.
Delete1975?.......SC mate what in hell are you looking at?
ReplyDeleteCan you not see the bigger picture?......the big global banks SP's are in freefall.
Commodities have been collapsing for months and the USD is perched on a ledge whilst gold and silver begins what is likely going to be a move that will make the move from October 2007 into 2011 look mild.
Lower lows coming at any moment in US indices and not by a small amount either. Wait until the panic really sets in in March.
March into April will bring forth an epiphany for all those that thought that the world was on the mend.
Deutsch Bank, Goldman, Merryl, JPM, RBS.......all in freefall. Ya think the markets are gonna bounce significantly out of this?
ReplyDeleteThe crude collapse along with last years Swiis Franc revaluation is just coming home to roost.
This only the beginning. There are massive corporate defaults accumulating which is why the banks are taking a hit.
Another larger plunge is still due towards the end of Feb 2016. SC, what's your thoughts?
ReplyDeleteSPX reached the 1830 target as expected. Everything going according to the plan.
DeleteNow that the 1830 SPX target has been achieved, 1975 SPX next within 1 week.
DeleteHi SC, do you have views on Oil, after this relentless sell off ?
ReplyDeleteBullish on oil for a move to $50.
Deleteby when
DeleteThis year.
DeleteI'm waiting to see Crude end of February, and may consider taking a position at that time.
ReplyDeleteSPX rally time! It's about to blow sky high. Buckle up!!
DeleteSC not sure about a rally, at best it is very choppy, but its still early, lets hope you are right! thx
DeleteHuston, we have a problem...
DeleteHey SC,
ReplyDeletewould have been nice to catch UVXY but in any event , seems like we are about to buckle up now...
SC, what's your thoughts about SPX range and time.. What about DUST? It may turn around..
ReplyDeleteSPX reached the 1830 target, and now looks to be setting up to spike up for a week to 10 days to the next target area. It's moving according to plan.
DeleteThe Gold and Silver Cycle is bullish for months to come. Gold is currently in an area of resistance, and due for consolidation next. Dips likely to be minor.
DeleteSCFebruary 9, 2016 at 7:04 AM
ReplyDeleteSPX rally time! It's about to blow sky high. Buckle up!!
Really?
The market at this point looks extremely brutal... SC, I hope your estimate for SPX is correct for the next 10 days..
ReplyDeleteSPX did see slightly lower than my target today. I'm ok with that. The timing is late by a week but otherwise the outlook is the same.
ReplyDeleteThe support line is sloped down. Because it took a week longer it had to dip slightly lower to hit the support.
Deletethe red one or the purple one?
DeleteRed support.
DeleteSC, where do you see next big support for XIV, it broke the 1/20 low $16.31 today?
ReplyDeleteXIV tested the turquoise support again. Chart coming.
DeleteIt's true...there is "potential" for a strong bounce into late next week, and maybe a bit past that...based on things like cycles, NYMO, OpEx, and Full Moon. But that path is far from guaranteed...even if it makes for a promising looking chart.
ReplyDeleteWas my plunge scary enough? Haha...
DeleteSCJanuary 29, 2016 at 8:08 AM
"Yes same levels, charts are still pointing up for a few more days, but the Cycle shows a low coming next week. I am expecting a surprise "scary" plunge one day next week."
Now be prepared for the massive up in SPX that is underway. There is some resistance around 1910. Expect a dip and higher low 1850, and then spike up to 1975 SPX.
DeleteNew XIV update posted!
ReplyDelete