The model does indicate a slightly higher high in July/August though it should be considered possible that the high is already in place. In any case the model suggests a bounce soon and the high re-tested, and up into mid-July next.
At this pace the flashcrash is due August at the earliest and September at the latest.
Daily
The dip yesterday signals the transition into a faster moving market. The next move looks to be upwards short term.
ReplyDeleteIt should be a good period for short term trading. I will wait for August to be aggressively shorting.
Do you know what the XIV targets are for July and Aug/Sept.
ReplyDeleteAlready breached $39 today. Is possible that 30's get tapped before proceeding higher?
The model suggests XIV should pop to around $48 in July, dip to $40 and then a higher high around $52 is indicated.
DeleteThen, when the flashcrash occurs XIV around $25. I think this is most likely in September.
Yes, we've had to tweak the timing of the model a little, and that's ok because everything else in the model is progressing nicely.
ReplyDeleteFor UVXY targets we're talking about a dip to $25 and a rise in September to around $75. That's a triple or 200% gain in a couple months!
As expected Greece defaulted today. They call it in "arrears", it's a technical default. This is the largest country to default to the IMF.
DeleteSCMay 31, 2015 at 1:30 AM
"It seems June negotiations may have twists and turns but ultimately fail with Greece defaulting June 30th...."
The market has been at this level for a week. Indicators have, in fact, become extremely oversold, therefore a strong bounce is due up into mid-July.
ReplyDeleteSCJune 29, 2015 at 6:35 PM
"The market should bounce a little here, but it needs to spend about a week before it will be sufficiently oversold to get a stronger bounce into mid-July.
I'm long looking to exit mid-July around $48 XIV."
Notice VIX is making a lower high today.
ReplyDeleteSo XIV $38's is a good entry in your opinion?
ReplyDeleteFor a short term move it's a good entry point imo.
ReplyDeleteHi, SC!! Where do you see the bottom is for Shanghai and Hang Seng index? How much rebound would you expecting for both indexes from that bottom? Many Thanks!!!
ReplyDeleteHi, Shanghai weekly chart looks very positive. It was very overbought so not surprising to see this recent dip, and doesn't impact the positive long term trend.
DeleteIt's at major support 3,500. Bounce to 4,300 short term. New high looks possible next year.
For Hang Seng major support around 23,000. It can bounce to 25,250 short term.
Shanghai update with Bubble Cycle
Deletehttp://darellcharts.blogspot.com/2015/07/shanghai-update.html
Interesting, thank you!
DeleteSC, Based on your model, where do you see the sp 500 going to ?
ReplyDeleteThks
The SPX Cycle showed a high around 2150 and the low to follow around 1980 to 2,000.
DeleteI'm expecting a big bounce shortly and 2,000 or a little lower in September.
What happened to the flash crash that was to occur after July?
DeleteWe're in the late stage of finishing the topping process. The high is due in August and the flash crash is due from that high according to the model.
Delete2030s next.
ReplyDeleteNo more bounces. It's over for now. Slow down at 2020, 2013, 1980.
ReplyDeleteWhat's your time frame for 1980 to hit? Nice call last week for 2053.
DeleteWell, we do seem to have a bounce today. Is this one to be sold?
DeleteSPX should rise according to the model for about 6 weeks here to reach our 2150 target. There should also be a soft spot early August with a little dip there.
ReplyDeletePlanning to hold my position for about a week. Price has some room to rise, then plan to go short for a dip likely around the end of the month and into early Aug.
ReplyDeleteThe model looks choppy for the next month but positive overall. Good time period to make some moves.
What are the XIV and UVXY targets? $48 and $28?
ReplyDeleteYes, for XIV around $48, then $41 should be tested, then up to around $52 in August.
DeleteShort term cycles are still positive until July 23/24. Little upside left though, and high likely next week.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking to take profit soon, and short position next week.
Xiv exit at $48 or 52 next week? $52 is another 10% which would need Vix to spike low to 10's
ReplyDelete$48 to $49 next week and dip to $41 to $43 XIV by early Aug according to the model. Then the model does show a higher high in later Aug with a $52 target.
DeleteSC, what is your estimate of the next VIX high during July/August?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Z.
VIX pop to 17 early August.
DeleteSC, You say ST cycles are up til the 23rd, does your analysis still see another high this week before the larger pullback? I am trying to be patient with a short entry.
ReplyDeleteYes it does show another high later this week. So there is no rush to short, not much will happen this week. Having said that there is little or no upside either.
DeleteSell XIV now?
ReplyDeleteXIV reached the $48 target. So yes I'll be looking to exit and build a short position this week.
DeleteSCJune 29, 2015 at 6:35 PM
Delete"The market should bounce a little here, but it needs to spend about a week before it will be sufficiently oversold to get a stronger bounce into mid-July.
I'm long looking to exit mid-July around $48 XIV."
Gold nearing my $1,000 target. There's some downside in the Cycle here for a few months.
ReplyDeleteSilver $12 this fall.
Took profit and sold XIV at $49.
ReplyDeleteGood trade SC!
ReplyDeleteThank you!
DeleteIt took patience but despite the Greek drama, China, Gold, Oil declines the model simply pointed higher.
Greece likely to dominate the media once again soon. There is no deal yet! They have only agreed to negotiate on a bailout. Likely to see some hiccups in that process.
ReplyDeleteThe comparison model is turning negative. Next target is $41 to $42 XIV. We should see that tested by mid-August.
ReplyDeleteLooking for an entry to short soon.
my july 8 call sucked.
ReplyDeleteyoure implying we go to 1980 right now then.
SPX target is 2,060 first half of August. The second half of August looks strong, quite positive.
ReplyDeleteOverall the model does show weakness next into the first half of August, but still positive into late August.
What are your UVXY entry/exit points with XIV 41?
ReplyDeleteIs the XIV crash to $25 still on track for this fall?
UVXY should pop about 30%.
DeleteYes, still on track for September.
The market is due for softness here, but overall the model shows a rising market into late August.
ReplyDeleteMarket has spoken! The market probably will bounce Monday, so next week should offer more short opportunities!!
ReplyDeleteSo fast. Interesting:
ReplyDelete"SPX target is 2,060 first half of August. The second half of August looks strong, quite positive. "
Yes nearly reached the 2,060 SPX target this morning. It should bounce for a few days next. Then lower into Early August.
ReplyDeleteXIV should bounce for a few days and then lower to my $41 target.
ReplyDeleteWhat's your guess on how stretched to downside this goes? 2020 gap or the infamous 1980 area. The blogs are all Bearish now....the tide....it would be downright funny for 2040 to hold this whoosh....again. Comical robot trading.
ReplyDeleteThere's not much downside left short term. Maybe 2,040 for this low. This will only be a brief dip lasting into early Aug. From a low in early Aug, another sharp rally similar to the one in July.
ReplyDeleteYes, by the time people figure out the pattern of these whipsaws then of course, as always, the character of the market will change haha!
ReplyDeleteBought XIV $43.65.
ReplyDeleteCan pop $2 or $3 here.
DeleteBounce looks likely for a few days. Should see a decent pop here.
ReplyDeleteI do think the market will be lower in early August than today so I'll be looking to exit longs and short later in the week. The selling is just overdone right now.
Overall the model is positive into late August.
Your XIV target in the last rally was spot on. The current XIV rally has started strong, is your target still limited to a $2-3 pop? Tx
ReplyDeleteThank you!
DeleteYes, XIV pop pretty much over, looking to exit and go short.
SC, how far do you think this rally today will go? Do you think the 50 day SMA at 2100 is the ceiling? Big move on XIV today, looking at an appropriate exit without leaving too much on the table. thx, Z.
ReplyDeleteYes, 2100 is a ceiling for now.
DeleteGood call on the pop
ReplyDeleteThank you, my friend!
DeleteJust to clarify, is this the XIV move to 52 or is 41 coming first?
ReplyDelete$41 in a few days...
DeleteXIV
ReplyDeletehttp://traderjoed.blogspot.com/
Thanks Joe, cheers!
DeleteSame to ya!
DeleteTook profit and sold XIV at $47.10.
ReplyDeleteBought UVXY at $27.10.
ReplyDeleteLooking for $32.
DeleteShouldnt your UVXY target be higher ? if you are looking for XIV 41
Delete,then i would expect uvxy around 37-38.
Yes, but I expect a dip for UVXY from around $32. I plan to exit then re-enter for another move up to around $37 to $40.
DeleteSPX 2030-2040 in early August.
ReplyDeleteThe 200DMA for SPX has been tested and weakened. Therefore, should see a little below that next.
DeleteSo for the roadmap, you see this move to SPX 2030 then a high around 2150 late Aug down to 2000 and continue up to 2350? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteYes, that is basically it! Probably see a little lower than 2,000. 1950-1980 looks possible.
DeleteLooks like the FED changes the scenario again, S&P through the resistance around 2105 and may try and touch the highs again.
ReplyDeleteOverall, there should be down pressure for SPX into August 14th. Counter bounces will be strong, but Daily Cycles look negative into that time frame.
ReplyDeleteXIV looking strong today @ $48....you sure this isnt the move to $52?
ReplyDeleteI'm confident that we'll see weakness first.
DeleteWe'll find out next week though for sure.
DeleteWhat's your take on Oil, where do you think it will eventually hit bottom? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteSince oil had a large move last year, no big moves up or down this year - its range bound. Probably see $35 tested this Fall or early next year which was the 2009 low. That should act as support for a moderate bounce during 2016.
ReplyDeleteSpx turning over but Vix & Xiv not cooperating...odd
ReplyDeletePartly it's a sign of complacency. Also the model indicates that XIV should have a little upside this month. Considering how mature this model is, some unusual behavior is the be expected.
ReplyDeleteThis is an interesting and rare situation not for SPX particularly, but for volatility - since the model itself is specific to volatility itself.
At what point & price would you say XIV 52 before 42? Breach of previous high at $49? Or alltime high 50?
ReplyDelete$49.
DeleteThere is not much time left to maturity in this model. The crash is due to start this month and the deepest plunges are due in September.
UVXY should see a little lower this month but considering the model, upside targets are around $75. I'll continue to hold UVXY.
Hi SC, Are you planning to exit UVXY around $32 and re-enter when dip then hold it till $75?
DeleteWhat would a $75 UVXY share translate into a VIX price? That's a big move from where we are now
DeleteThere is a spot where I'll look to exit temporarily $36 to $40 first target. Dip then up to the next target around $75.
DeleteVIX 30 minimum.
Deletearea of $40.96 (gap) is a likely first target...
DeleteVIX daily trend line indicates the 22.0-22.5 area is a likely first target...
DeleteThank you!
DeleteYou mean XIV has to reach 52 within the next couple weeks or 25 will be in play?
ReplyDeleteThe model does show a higher high for XIV around $52 this month. However, sometime the price truncates in these situations.
DeleteThanks! SC
DeleteXiv 49.25... Will continue holding until 52.
ReplyDeleteAccording to the model, XIV should have a couple dollars upside in August, and ideally UVXY should decline short term this month. Therefore, a stop on UVXY around $20.
ReplyDeleteThis is an unusual situation given the crash showing in the model. A wide stop is needed because we're in a volatile phase of the model as the high forms.
Of course counterbalancing this is that the risk reward is exceptional. Potential downside of about $5 with upside of about $50 at this price.
There are solid indications that this model is going to continue to play out. The DOW has broken down below the 200dma, and the death cross is imminent next week. Apple is weak. Oil and Gold declines resuming. Etc...
ReplyDeleteOne short term Cycle I am monitoring that called the turns perfectly in July shows a decline for SPX into next week. This is the reason I've been saying decline into mid- August and then rise into late August.
ReplyDeleteI may consider taking profit next week.
What target for TZA do you see for this pop by next week? Thx!
ReplyDeleteHi, SC! Is your target price for uvxy next week still at $36 to $40? Spx at 2030? Thank You!!
ReplyDeleteProbably not that much by next week.
DeleteAre you still looking to cover by the end of the week even the UVXY targets not met?
DeleteIf it pops to $29 to $30 I may exit, but it's not necessary.
DeleteRe: XIV
ReplyDeleteMove down to 42 then bounce to 52
Or
Truncated high @ 49.6 with move to 42 then 25?
Most likely we haven't seen the high yet for XIV.
DeleteSc are you expecting low in gold and silver at the end of august
ReplyDeleteNo, I think we'll see a low this Fall. Still some downside left.
DeleteOnce Dow makes death cross will this nullify any further gains late August?
ReplyDeleteThe death cross will occur this week for the Dow so can see the market a little lower this week. However, the usual pattern is that the market short term bounces soon after the cross, then lower in weeks/months to come.
DeleteSC, what is your target price for UVXY if you exit next week? Thanks
ReplyDelete$29 to $30 looks possible.
DeleteA $30 uvxy target only translates to $44 xiv... When are you anticipating the XIV high @ 52?
ReplyDeleteAround the end of the month.
DeleteThe market will likely plunge soon, probably this week.
ReplyDeleteDeath cross on the Dow today.
ReplyDeleteNow this blog is totally unclear???? Confusing. Perhaps simplify with number targets -- your projections on next substantial rally in indexes.
ReplyDeleteWe know you continue to insist on a big decline in the fall.
Be Careful - SC is Trading, not Investing. Trading changes constantly. Investing is longer term.
DeleteSC - Thanks for your valuable insight. It has confirmed my market bias. I am up over 100% in my volatility trading account for the year. Your comments are clear to me.
Everyone - complete your own Due Diligence. Don't pass it on to someone else.
If market will be plunging this week, why only 10% upside in Vix/UVXY?
ReplyDeleteRight now were in the choppy phase of the model. We're seeing the whipsaws shown in the model.
DeleteContago.
DeleteJust to be clear the market is plunging but only for a couple more days. The second half of August looks fairly positive. Then the crash is due to occur in September.
ReplyDeleteThe market is seeing the weakness according to the plan as stated in July.
DeleteSCJuly 23, 2015 at 7:02 PM
"SPX target is 2,060 first half of August. The second half of August looks strong, quite positive.
Overall the model does show weakness next into the first half of August, but still positive into late August."
"Between now and the September 1st time period, I look for a stock market that grinds steadily lower – no crash – but a day-by-day erosion of the six year gains that preceded it."
Delete- Stan Harley, August 11, 2015
We're in the whipsaw phase which is why I'm trading in and out of both long and short positions. When the market is ready for a larger move, then I'll be holding for the larger moves.
ReplyDeleteSC, do you think that the 200 DMA for S&P will breached again? How much lower can it go? thanks
ReplyDeleteZ.
Little downside now short term. The model looks positive for the second half of August.
DeleteGreat Call SC
ReplyDeletethanks for your valuable input and advice
lets make some money :-)
Cheers
Salute!
DeleteSC - Your patience in trading, and addressing comments on your blog are amazing. This skill is probably what helped you become a successful trader.
ReplyDeleteDay Trading (in and out) is far less stressful than holding overnight for me. This year I committed to working on longer swing trades. I have done it (successfully) thanks in part to you.
Thank you very much for the kind words, and all the best!
DeleteAre you still expecting a very strong bounce in the 2nd half of August? What would be your target on SPX?
ReplyDeleteYes, may see as much as 2150 SPX.
DeleteSC, Good call on the downside. Mondays price action was discouraging, but you clearly held on to your outlook
ReplyDeletehttp://safehaven.com/article/38552/stock-market-crash-bear-market-rally-in-gold
ReplyDeletethis author and many others are expecting low on aug 18/19
Looking to exit my short position today!
ReplyDeleteTook profit and sold UVXY at $30.45.
ReplyDeleteNow that the market plunged, the model is turning bullish again. Next target for XIV is $52. SPX could see as much as 2,150.
ReplyDeleteAgain, great trade SC, and thank you for answering our questions. You're the best!
ReplyDeleteThank you! We're just getting started...the market is about to become a lot more exciting!!
DeleteBought XIV at $44.10.
ReplyDeleteNot much lower, SPX should be forming a short term low here next 2 days. SPX probably will hold the July low or March low 2,040 during August.
ReplyDeleteNot much will happen the next 2 days either up or down. Then after that is should run up hard.
ReplyDeleteI'll be exiting XIV this morning.
ReplyDeleteI'm not convinced it bottomed yesterday. So will play it safe here.
DeleteSound like a good idea, since there is significant one day profit here and market is still whipsawing. Do you think there will be a lower low tomorrow or next week? thanks, Z.
DeleteGood morning SC ,
ReplyDeleteexcellent calls , keep them coming....
Have a terrific day :-)
We'll see what happens here. Generally the market should be turning more positive. XIV may have bottomed but probably will slide to retest $44.50 or so before rising.
ReplyDeleteSold XIV at $47.95.
ReplyDeleteTook profits and will sit and wait on the sidelines. The market likely needs to consolidate for a few days.
DeleteWith the recent bounce in gold, is your opinion still down for gold?
ReplyDeleteYes lower Gold by end of September.
DeleteNice trade SC, do you still see the 14th as the last day of negative cycle in your short term Cycle?
ReplyDeleteYes, Cycles are turning positive for about 2 weeks. The first week of September looks negative again.
DeleteAre you looking to buy back XIV today? Thx!
ReplyDeleteI'll probably wait for Monday/Tuesday. My indicators don't look quite ready for XIV. I think it could slide back to around $45.
DeleteLet's see how things shape up next for a day or two.
some people calling for bottom on aug 18/19 and then higher till aug 29
ReplyDeleteSc, Are you able to share some thoughts about crude oil and China markets? Are they both consolidation yet? Thanks
ReplyDeleteCrude can bounce soon, but then see $35 tested this September.
DeleteWhat do you think will happen with equities the rest of this week SC. Still waiting on a low or rally already started?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-timer-tom-mcclellan-sees-stocks-set-up-for-ugly-decline-as-early-as-thursday-2015-08-17?siteid=yhoof2
ReplyDeletethis 1 is awesome
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1xqSZy9_4I
The market can see some weakness first but I am expecting a higher market around month-end.
ReplyDeleteWaiting for an optimal setup either short or long.
ReplyDeleteHi, SC!! Did you go back in Xiv? Do you see now 2073 is the low for spx n raspy toward end of next week? Thank You!
ReplyDeleteXIV indicators starting to look better, needs a little more time, may look to enter in a few days.
ReplyDeletestill the same target, around 45?
DeleteYes
DeleteSC, with the crash in September coming, do you think it's a bit risky to jump on XIV? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteIndicators are moving into a quite positive configuration for XIV. It should run up for 2 weeks. It's also a strong spot in the model for XIV. I do tend to agree that caution is necessary, and it would not be smart to attempt to push it too far.
DeleteThe target area according to the model is $52 possibly a little more. Probably not a good idea to try to push it beyond about $51.
Looks like today might be the day, XIV $45.25 pre-market.
ReplyDeleteYes, planning to take a position in XIV today/tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteIt did slide and we're at $45 today. Indicators look almost perfect for XIV!
ReplyDeleteSCAugust 14, 2015 at 5:47 AM
"My indicators don't look quite ready for XIV. I think it could slide back to around $45.
Let's see how things shape up next for a day or two."
Bought XIV at $44.30.
ReplyDeleteGreat call again, SC!!
DeleteWell looks like entered just a little early. XIV looks like it wants to test trendline support from Feb which is around $41. Will just sit and wait for it to pop above $50.
ReplyDeleteWhat would the $41 level translate into for S&P.
DeleteThanks
Z.
Not much lower 10-15 points maybe. See the new analysis posted.
DeleteDo you still see 2150 for this pop on S&P or lower target now?
ReplyDeleteIt could reach it, the model still remains positive.
Delete