This is a particularly choppy spot in the Cycle.
A dip to test near the red support can be expected, but strong bounces are also likely to occur as the market continues to bounce up and down within the red resistance and support lines. This choppiness is anticipated to persist during the months of April and May according to the Cycle.
2hour Chart
Before:
SPX Cycle:
The market continues to rattle up and down within the red lines.
ReplyDeleteInterestingly the VIX is facing a death cross on the daily moving averages within a week or so. Typically in these situations the VIX can be volatile, and see some pops, but overall the cross signals much lower VIX in the months ahead.
ReplyDeleteUVXY will become more interesting to take a position in April after the cross has occurred. By that time it will be obvious to most seeing the cross, which is why we can expect a larger spike for VIX in May.
I do not put much stock in crosses. Vix achieved a golden cross in Oct and other than a brief spike to 30 (less than a week) its gone essentially nowhere. I expect similar action with the death crosses.
ReplyDeleteXiv has also had a death cross since Oct and it too has gone sideways/nowhere for 6 months! Certainly not the crash i was expecting.
Sc, how does this chart and your new UVXY targets correlate to the 2nd yellow arrow for uvxy? The second arrow was supposed to be a higher low if I remember correctly.
ReplyDeleteIs that old chart no long valid?
The Second Yellow Arrow low was in December in the 11's according to the VIX Cycle. That low has held for 4 months, and the VIX has been higher ever since December. The VIX Cycle just shows VIX churning sideways for a number of bars after the Second Yellow Arrow low is in place.
DeleteThat is what has happened. VIX is just bouncing up and down sideways basically. I do think the VIX could see slightly lower than Dec into the 10's, but it's not significant.
The VIX Cycle is definitely still working, and is important as it shows a large move ahead. Both Cycles work together. One is short term and the other is long term. When the Cycles both mature, then the large move in VIX is due.
looks like vix is making higher low and all the inverse etfs are making falling wedge formations
ReplyDeleteSC, any update/thought on the recent movement? Are we still heading to 2150 in what time frame you think?
ReplyDeleteI'll have an update shortly.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like SPX is running out of gas. A couple days of upside only. Looking to exit and switch into a short position end of the week.
spx is loosing momentum
ReplyDeleteSc. What is wrong with uvxy. Market goes up or down. It goes down everyday. Wil it ever go in 20's
ReplyDeleteThere is a reason it is doing that. I'll explain with the update coming out shortly.
DeleteHas the pink arrow been fulfilled?
ReplyDeleteAre you still waiting for XIV 40 or exiting earlier than that next couple days?
Yes, I think the pink arrow is in place.
DeleteLooking to exit XIV this morning. It's been a good run. $38 to $40 was the target range for this move.
Hi SC: Wondering if you look at currencies. The Euro seems to be headed into oblivion and the US$ on an insatiable path upward. Wondering how long this can go on.
ReplyDeleteUS dollar will rise for 2 more years I believe.
DeleteSc when u do spx cycle. Please mention the app. Price project for. Uvxy. Do u expext a split for uvxy
ReplyDeleteNew update posted for SPX. Yes, UVXY should reverse split this Fall.
DeleteSold XIV at $38.60.
ReplyDeleteGood trade SC, I sold a bit early, but this was a good spot for XIV.
ReplyDeleteWhen do you plan to get into UVXY and what target do you have in mind?
Thanks, Z.
UVXY looks good at this level, might pick it up today. I'm expecting it to pop to around $17 in May.
DeleteNothing major yet but a good pop is due...
New Cycle analysis posted!
ReplyDelete