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Thursday, June 16, 2011

SPY - Timing Cycle Update

A major equal timing cycle was due today and that suggests a bottom.  We had a significant spike in the VIX today, yet markets held up very well. 

The Financials - Rifin put in a triple bottom with the first bottom last Friday.  The relative strength of the Financials Index has been hinting (for a week now) about an approaching upswing for the markets in the near term. 

Daily Chart
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33 comments:

  1. A Peak Under The HoodJune 16, 2011 at 8:38 PM

    http://apeakunderthehood.blogspot.com/2011/06/happy-b-day-2pac-hunting- naked-in-woods.html

    Happy B-Day 2Pac; Hunting Naked in the Woods Drunk in the Dark with a Machine Gun

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  2. AnonymousJune 17, 2011 at 2:00 AM

    SC, do you have a opinion on why GLD is holding up here while GDX(the miners) have been dropping?

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  3. Attitude928June 17, 2011 at 3:22 AM

    SC, any thoughts on long term US Bonds and silver? Thanks! Jordan

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  4. SqwiiJune 17, 2011 at 4:57 AM

    Agree - still long TNA from yesterday 68.8 major swing and will hold for SPX to 1320-1330 - We might even go higher (AS I have been noticing - they always STRETCH it to maximum , both up and down - so I would guess they will STRETCH it more than most bears think..... all imo )

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  5. SCJune 17, 2011 at 6:25 AM

    Yes, I see what is coming for Gold. Let me show the charts for that...about to get interesting!

    I'll show the Silver charts as well. Consolidating sideways here, and we should see more of that before the plunge into the $20's. The setup has been slow, but same plan as always. Would have to look closer at bonds.

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  6. BlakeJune 17, 2011 at 7:38 AM

    SC- do you see a new high for gold before it starts dropping? I can picture gold setting a new high and silver futures getting stuck around 36, which would be about 35 for SLV.

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  7. SCJune 17, 2011 at 8:04 AM

    There is enough time that it could do it Blake.

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  8. DD_IngJune 17, 2011 at 12:54 PM

    Some smart folks are making parallels to 1987 (Jeff Cooper among others). Everyone thinks the 200 day MA will hold but in 1987 it failed in one massive plunge. The October 1987 experience was similar....it fell fairly sharply after getting a DeMark monthly signals at the end of Sept like we had at end of May 2011. The crash was the Monday after options expiration just like today is. I will be on high alert and will not be long on Monday. Best of luck.

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  9. George HJune 20, 2011 at 9:06 AM

    Another great call. Market is up despite significant weakness in financials earlier (improved now).

    Do you have any time measurement for this bounce cycle?

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  10. SCJune 20, 2011 at 9:38 AM

    Thanks George.

    I did say this on June 15th: 'The way this mkt has been lately, "expect the unexpected". A steady rally day after day wouldn't surprise me here, and would sure fit that description.'

    Assuming today closes green, then today would be the third day up in a row.

    I don't have a specific day in mind just yet, but a rough estimate would be several weeks.

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  11. SqwiiJune 20, 2011 at 9:58 AM

    I have a fib date for a top near end of June

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  12. lixJune 20, 2011 at 10:07 AM

    SC

    Great calls. Scary how on point you have been.

    You stated that slv will trade sideways for a bit. Do you have a soft date of when SLV will start to head into the high 20s?

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  13. SCJune 20, 2011 at 10:40 AM

    I'm pleased with the way Silver has been acting. The sideways shuffle is a good sign that it is behaving consistent with a certain pattern.

    I've been waiting for that consolidation to progress, and I'm due to review.

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  14. BobJune 20, 2011 at 11:03 AM

    Can someone clue me in on why the financials are down today?

    Thanks

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  15. SCJune 20, 2011 at 11:18 AM

    There was some news out:

    Citi Cuts Targets on Goldman, JPMorgan. Also European banks were hit with Greek uncertainty.

    Partly I think they are taking a breather as they were stronger on Thurs and Friday. Let's see how they act from this point.

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  16. BobJune 20, 2011 at 4:48 PM

    SC,

    Greek gov. will face confidence vote on Tuesday, if the current gov. gets past that, austerity measures need to pass Greek parliament on the 28th before another bailout from the EU.

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  17. RogerJune 20, 2011 at 5:01 PM

    Hi. SC: Is there any change on silver time frame of expecting decline? Are you still looking at end of June, correct me if I'm wrong? Thanks.

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  18. SCJune 20, 2011 at 8:33 PM

    Thanks Bob!

    Roger, according to plan for Silver though the setup has been a little slower. I'll be updating the progress and timing shortly. Thanks.

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  19. SCJune 21, 2011 at 7:39 AM

    SLV hit my short term target $35.50. Time to start looking for a top in this area.

    For SPX, another nice rally today. 1297 is a spot to watch, then dip 10 points or so, before the rally resumes.

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  20. BlakeJune 21, 2011 at 7:53 AM

    Thanks for the update SC. I actually shorted silver just now as well and went long the dollar. Both appear to be at good points to change the short term trend.

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  21. comatJune 21, 2011 at 8:00 AM

    Hi SC , thanks for all your works . How far silver will be up in this area ? Will it still heading down later ?Really appreciate your thought

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  22. comatJune 21, 2011 at 8:10 AM

    I have a position in zsl , should i sell now and buy back later? Sorry i am a very newbie

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  23. BobJune 21, 2011 at 8:24 AM

    TC,
    If you are newbie, then you really shouldn't be trading silver, especially now with a 2x short ETF. Silver has been ranging for weeks now - it's very difficult to make money either up or down.

    I think better to wait until August/September rolls around if you really want to trade silver: upside, you lose nothing; downside, you gain nothing :) This is what I'm doing.

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  24. comatJune 21, 2011 at 8:32 AM

    Thanks for the reply Bob , Really appreciate . I am not a trader , just the first time invest on silver but have lost a lot month ago, i just try to cover some money back with the hope that silver going down then will invest long on silver again . Now i am really confused , do not know what to do as my account under water again with zsl

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  25. BobJune 21, 2011 at 8:50 AM

    TC,
    It would be illegal to give you specific trade advice. This blog and others are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing written here should be wrongly assumed to be trade recommendations :)

    In general, a lot of people think silver is heavily manipulated and highly volatile. If I were new, then I would not touch silver.

    Just my two cents...

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  26. SCJune 21, 2011 at 9:08 AM

    TC,

    I can't give trading advice as that is solely your decision based on your risk tolerance and other factors. Silver especially is not the most forgiving to trade as it has experienced extreme volatility over the last few months.

    All I can say is that from a pattern I am watching Silver might top out around this level, and then a decline may occur next. There are no guarantees this will happen of course.

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  27. SpudthorpeJune 21, 2011 at 10:49 AM

    Lending additional support to SC's view on silver, silver futures have nearly retested the bottom of their broken triangle.
    Here is a screenshot.

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  28. comatJune 21, 2011 at 11:11 AM

    Thanks very much for kind reply SC, Bob

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  29. SCJune 21, 2011 at 11:24 AM

    You are certainly welcome TC. Nothing confirmed as far as a top just yet, might still be a little early.

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  30. SCJune 21, 2011 at 11:38 AM

    Financials rallied hard this morning, now a little flatter. SPX pushing over this mornings high but I am suspecting some weakness tomorrow morning.

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  31. BlakeJune 21, 2011 at 2:03 PM

    Truly spot on call SC. I think you nailed SLV with your target at 35.5 here. Looks like it will have some weakness immediately, then maybe test this level again by the end of this week before resuming the downtrend

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  32. BlakeJune 21, 2011 at 2:14 PM

    Here is what I see: the market pulls back here immediately. Silver and gold will pullback as well. Silver pulls back farther than gold. this may only take a couple of days. Simultaneously, the dollar index rallies here to about 77. At this point, the dollar gives up all of those gains to re-test the 75 area where we are now. As the dollar comes back down, market finishes this rally to make a high above today's, gold makes a new all time high, and silver may break today's high, but not by much. Then the market, gold, and silver get severely sold off as the dollar starts a new prolonged rally.

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  33. BobJune 21, 2011 at 3:20 PM

    e-mini down after Greek confidence vote. Sell the news?

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