The yellow triangle apex marked the timing of the top peak 4 for VIX. Once the blue triangle boundaries fill in further, and are thus better defined, then the blue triangle apex will provide a more precise estimate for the next VIX peak. On this chart the blue triangle apex is approximately April 15th. I had previously estimated that SPX may bottom roughly April 15th. I used another cycle to calculate that date, and the VIX triangle apex is further supporting that timing estimate.
60min Chart
So by 'roughly April 15th...you would see the VIX running all the way back up to 30(ish)...and the SPX go down to where approximately ?? 1280? 1250? Or even lower?
ReplyDeleteThe date will be better defined once the triangle fills in some more. Not sure on the ultimate target for VIX yet, let's say 31 minimum, maybe much more. For SPX my target will be approx 1206.
ReplyDeleteThe April 15th date could get pushed back a little, but for now a decent estimate. Will fine tune later.
Starting to look like bottom on "bad" earnings...
If SPX is going to 1206 as you indicate next - well then VIX should most likely be a lot higher as you say - cause there is a long way down to 1206 currently.
ReplyDeleteBut if this is true we need to see some weakness already next week..
Both this VIX chart and the last SPX chart indicate moderate declines this coming week to start with. This sets up a steeper, near vertical, decline.
ReplyDeleteThis VIX triangle will deceive many because it looks like a rising wedge. Many will think that the rising wedge is evidence of a decline coming for VIX and bullish for the market. Not so in this case according to the cycle.
Another observation on this chart is that both yellow top 3 and blue top 3 are Head and Shoulders tops. Yellow top 4 is a triple top, and so blue top 4 should be a triple top shape also.
ReplyDeleteI have drawn a triple bottom (around 1206) coming next on the recent SPX charts. A triple bottom for SPX would match up nicely with a VIX triple top.
I very much respect you for making the call.
ReplyDeletevery interesting SC. Would love to learn more about how you come up with your projections, but I understand that time commitment is an issue
ReplyDeleteSC another interesting thing is if you look at ES futures - we topped right at 1333 , near 1334 but did not reach it in ES futures.
ReplyDeleteSo lets see if this top is going to hold....today will be telling
Thanks Sqwii. That matches up with another pattern that I noticed. A test of near Friday's highs makes sense this morning, and then decline from there.
ReplyDeleteI'll post that chart later today. It fits well with my other work.
Are all the bulls tired? Interesting double top at 1333/1332,75. If we close under 1324 on the ES today, then I think SC free fall has started.
ReplyDeleteJust don't see a 150pt drop in 9 trading days but will keep an eye on it.
ReplyDeleteWe may even see 1350 here soon.
ReplyDeleteWell, my date may be pushed back a few days. 3rd week of April might be more appropriate.
ReplyDeleteAnother possibility here is that the double top turns into a triple top with a slight move higher than Friday's high - say 1340 SPX. Hard down from there.
In any case, we're getting close Finnbo.
Mr. B speaking tonight..........i think we might see your 1352 before any correction.
ReplyDeleteckorey, your numbers are often very accurate BTW. Curious, what do you use for your T/A?
ReplyDeleteckorey said...
ReplyDeleteMr. B speaking tonight..........i think we might see your 1352 before any correction.
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Certainly possible. If anybody will use every trick in his bag to keep the market up..it's Bernanke.After all,it's his printing and QE that got us up here. So his...and obama's reputations depend on the market "holding" steady.We'll see where were at by Wednesday. Hope I"m wrong,but I think it's going to be tough to break SPX 1320.Maybe even 1330. We'll see.
SC,
ReplyDeleteI use my own charts with various custom settings for stochs, rsi and macd. I use this with a loose (very loose) Elliot Wave count.
I try to keep it a simple as possible and most of all trade without bias. Most of the bear blogs are filled with bad traders because they see only what they want to happen. You can go broke quickly that way. Bulls are just as guilty but have been on the right side of the trade for two years. They are right until a trend change which has not happened yet.
I find your work great even if I may not agree. I will always keep an open mind.
Check this one out!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/fraud-based-economy?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29
How sick is this!
Great approach, and so true.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow will be an important day. It is feeling more and more like a Bernanke pop 1340 and drop to me. Almost a repeat of today, expect the bottom may fall out. Let's see.
Will look for it.........there is an open gap at 1340-1344 so maybe but just can't see any top yet.
ReplyDeleteRooting for you :-)