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Wednesday, December 4, 2019

TVIX - Friday the 13th Nightmare

TVIX is settling here and may cool further this week before it makes the next strong move.

Friday the 13th will likely be a nightmare for the stock market with new China tariffs due to hit on December 15th.

30min Chart

147 comments:

  1. Thanks SC, I was thinking 20 UVXY myself for the 13th when we got the last move.

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  2. TVIX dropped to the middle. There may be some reaction here but expect it to fall further this week.

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    Replies
    1. Uvxy 15 to 20 then down to 12 correct

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    2. UVXY $15 to $20, then $10 to end the Year 2019.

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    3. SC - are you expecting SPX at 3200 at year-end?

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    4. Higher high at year end for SPX, probably that is close. The santa claus rally is definitely coming.

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  3. If SVXY settles enough here it may make sense to re-enter or just wait for the entry on TVIX or UVXY.

    Cycles are down for SPX.

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  4. Sc r u expecting new high here or stall

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  5. The second half of December looks positive, but until December 13th still expecting a lower low SPX.

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  6. Replies
    1. Now or do you mean around December 13th?

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  7. Replies
    1. This morning was probably an entry for SVXY, even now is decent. It still looks to be heading higher. Or just wait for TVIX to come down in a few days.

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  8. covered uvxy and tvix short even though it looks like 14.50 is coming and 57 is comingon tvix

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  9. sc haha your target on uvxy was met good job!!!

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  10. Yes, great job SC, target's are getting hit fast.

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  11. See, isn't this fun!!!

    SCNovember 25, 2019 at 6:42 AM

    "December is set to be an excellent month for short term trading - the best strategy!"

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  12. Look for entry TVIX/UVXY soon, today or Monday.

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  13. I'm thinking Monday because we could go 3160

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  14. There's very little time left on this rally. Maybe monday better but the heaviest selling will occur next week.

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  15. Not sure of what to make of this slow motion slide

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    Replies
    1. SPX might actually close green today. For SPX it is slow, more interesting is volatility which is just the opposite, quite active today.

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  16. SC, is there a derivative one can use to bet on Vix on day to day bases?

    tvix and uvxy etc seem to be somewhat on a world of their own.. vix up 12% today... tvix thats suppose to be 200% of it.. is up 7%...

    I get the futures curve, but is there another tool one can use that actually follows the vix 100%?

    Thank you

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    Replies
    1. There is no etf tracking the VIX itself. All are tied directly to VIX futures.

      There are VIX options.

      I agree it can be annoying that there is no direct relationship with the VIX, but it's okay. Yes UVXY/TVIX underperform VIX at times, but they also outperform at other times. For example TVIX more than doubled from August to October 2011 during a period that VIX did not gain at all. On the whole move TVIX gained 700% with VIX only 300%.

      The issue with the curve will be resolved in January. So we won't have the wait long. In January a large move is coming and TVIX will likely outperform VIX on a percentage basis.

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    2. I have identified several options trades coming up which look excellent.

      A strategy that looks appealing is to build a core position in either UVXY or SVXY then add an options position for increased upside with little risk.

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    3. 2020 is the perfect setup for volatility. So for now it is what it is, and that is fine.

      Next year is going to be amazing...

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  17. Replies
    1. Hate to chase, but $80 TVIX this week looks achievable. Next week possibly closer to $90.

      The low is due December 16th to 18th.

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  18. Sorry SC,
    But the 16th is Monday.The 18th is Wed.How does this add up to $90 next week?

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  19. Did you mean the low for the spx

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  20. TVIX mid support around $66 today.

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  21. Possible small up day today for SPX. The deepest selling coming soon, probably tomorrow.

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  22. All sorts of rumours and innuendo coming out in the news.

    Stay with the charts!!

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  23. We have a bunch of bipolar politicians would you be great for volatility

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    Replies
    1. Yes, conditions are configuring for extreme volatility...

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  24. Sc you look at the by this back at a cheaper level?

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  25. Strong reaction to the $67's.

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  26. Notice TVIX was rejected at the gap this morning.

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  27. was a great trade i tried to buy 10000 shares but they didnt give it to me

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  28. Cycles are down into next week December 18th.

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  29. its weird how tvix and uvxy up a penny each

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  30. It's starting to look like may only fill the gap at $76 TVIX this week. Higher TVIX next week but plan to exit this week.

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    Replies
    1. SC - do you plan to re-enter TVIX early next week then?

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    2. Maybe, but it's best as we get closer to December 18th to focus more on SVXY entry rather than TVIX/UVXY.

      We'll see.

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    3. I was a bit surprised TVIX went as high as it did last week. That move was exaggerated.

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  31. I don't like how the TVIX was so high pre market today because the move may have already happened. Play it safe.

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  32. sc going are you going for the tripple trade today lol

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  33. Replies
    1. THE PROBLEM IS ARE WE TOPPING TODAY THE 12TH 13TH OR 18TH

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    2. The low is still December 16th to 18th.

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    3. SO I GUESSS I WILL SHORT UVXY AROUND THE 18TH DOWN TO 10

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    4. Yes, that is the dominant move.

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  34. This is actually very simple. Chart coming...

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  35. Here comes the nightmare...

    https://youtu.be/xR8oke8rzp8

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  36. Maybe I'll buy a 100000 UV XY here then if it goes lower another 100000

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  37. I have a funny feeling trump will delay the tariff

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    Replies
    1. Ultimately the tariffs will not be an issue.

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  38. The TVIX mid support (orange) is around $65 tomorrow. So possibly that could be tested.

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  39. Could also hold TVIX until December 18th anyway.

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  40. your now grasping at straws, basing a trading decision on a tariff possibility, heck, there is more of a chance the british vote lead to a little down move

    You should take a look at 4th year of first year president....second best time to invest in first term potus....

    What is reality, wall street doesn't want a change in potus....they will run it up thru august of next year, they are going to not let a democrat win.....good luck shorting this market.....

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    Replies
    1. theres gonna always be volatility my average uvxy was 14.60 i made money i will short any pop on volatility

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  41. piece of shit the only way is to short this crap

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  42. How is this even legal. They will never let this fall.

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  43. sc whats your prognosis now that we blasted through 65?

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  44. TVIX still looks good for the pop into December 18th. Nothing new.

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    Replies
    1. SVXY forming lower high. Next week it drops to touch the 50 day moving average at $59.50.

      Very simple.

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    2. SC - Are we going to get a larger pullback in SPX next week with the way it's gotten stretched to the upside?

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  45. SCDecember 11, 2019 at 11:53 AM

    Down days tomorrow and Friday with tomorrow the worst.

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  46. I am out fu this piece of shit I will short if it pops 14.65

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  47. Bought UV XY at 14 I'm a glutton for punishment still made money though

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  48. everybody hiding behind there desk lol

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  49. sc are you gonna ride this down like last time?

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  50. SC what is after jan. When uvxy hits 10. Looks like this market wont give up 10 spx pints

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  51. sc since we broke the orange pitchfork what is the prognosis now

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  52. https://www.screencast.com/t/0de3GCxdR

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  53. SC - are we still looking for SVXY to roll over into the 18th or is it going to be into Xmas now?

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    Replies
    1. Yes expect a dip into the 18th, then the Christmas rally will begin.

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  54. TVIX and UVXY targets are valid, but not for this month. They'll hit in January.

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  55. SC; your dates keep changing... The rally won’t stop until the end of the year...
    SCDecember 9, 2019 at 12:56 PM
    TVIX could see as high as $90 by December 18th

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  56. 18th is the VIX futures roll over date so that is probably the temporary low for TVIX & UVXY. Another date that is close is a Bradley turn date on the 20th.

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  57. So u expecting early jan uvxy 10 than fall in spx

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  58. so you 66 buy was not for this month? it was for january

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  59. Detailed charts are coming soon.

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    Replies
    1. SC seems like we are going to be topping into the 18th if anything and will need to hold for a bigger pullback into xmas/year-end?

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    2. Year End rally is likely. The VIX Futures curve is against TVIX/UVXY until January.

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  60. Stock block is going to 3350 by may of twenny twenny

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