Finding the edge in analyzing unique market Cycles.
Thanks SC, I was thinking 20 UVXY myself for the 13th when we got the last move.
Yes, $20 UVXY looks about right.
TVIX dropped to the middle. There may be some reaction here but expect it to fall further this week.
Uvxy 15 to 20 then down to 12 correct
UVXY $15 to $20, then $10 to end the Year 2019.
SC - are you expecting SPX at 3200 at year-end?
Higher high at year end for SPX, probably that is close. The santa claus rally is definitely coming.
Sold SVXY $61.25.
If SVXY settles enough here it may make sense to re-enter or just wait for the entry on TVIX or UVXY.Cycles are down for SPX.
Sc r u expecting new high here or stall
Lower high this week.
go higher, new high coming
The second half of December looks positive, but until December 13th still expecting a lower low SPX.
Sc what price will you renter svxy
Now or do you mean around December 13th?
Now and dec 13th
This morning was probably an entry for SVXY, even now is decent. It still looks to be heading higher. Or just wait for TVIX to come down in a few days.
December 13th SVXY $57.
covered uvxy and tvix short even though it looks like 14.50 is coming and 57 is comingon tvix
sc haha your target on uvxy was met good job!!!
Yes, great job SC, target's are getting hit fast.
See, isn't this fun!!!SCNovember 25, 2019 at 6:42 AM"December is set to be an excellent month for short term trading - the best strategy!"
Look for entry TVIX/UVXY soon, today or Monday.
I'm thinking Monday because we could go 3160
There's very little time left on this rally. Maybe monday better but the heaviest selling will occur next week.
Not sure of what to make of this slow motion slide
SPX might actually close green today. For SPX it is slow, more interesting is volatility which is just the opposite, quite active today.
SC, is there a derivative one can use to bet on Vix on day to day bases?tvix and uvxy etc seem to be somewhat on a world of their own.. vix up 12% today... tvix thats suppose to be 200% of it.. is up 7%...I get the futures curve, but is there another tool one can use that actually follows the vix 100%?Thank you
There is no etf tracking the VIX itself. All are tied directly to VIX futures. There are VIX options.I agree it can be annoying that there is no direct relationship with the VIX, but it's okay. Yes UVXY/TVIX underperform VIX at times, but they also outperform at other times. For example TVIX more than doubled from August to October 2011 during a period that VIX did not gain at all. On the whole move TVIX gained 700% with VIX only 300%.The issue with the curve will be resolved in January. So we won't have the wait long. In January a large move is coming and TVIX will likely outperform VIX on a percentage basis.
I have identified several options trades coming up which look excellent. A strategy that looks appealing is to build a core position in either UVXY or SVXY then add an options position for increased upside with little risk.
2020 is the perfect setup for volatility. So for now it is what it is, and that is fine.Next year is going to be amazing...
uvxy still going to 10 by new year?
Bought TVIX $68.35.
Hate to chase, but $80 TVIX this week looks achievable. Next week possibly closer to $90. The low is due December 16th to 18th.
uvxy 20 ?
Yes. $19 to $20.
Sorry SC,But the 16th is Monday.The 18th is Wed.How does this add up to $90 next week?
TVIX could see as high as $90 by December 18th.
if it hits 90 i will short it
Did you mean the low for the spx
TVIX mid support around $66 today.
Possible small up day today for SPX. The deepest selling coming soon, probably tomorrow.
Sold TVIX. $70.85.
Try to reenter $67.
All sorts of rumours and innuendo coming out in the news. Stay with the charts!!
They scared you out
Dumped uvxy 16.60
We have a bunch of bipolar politicians would you be great for volatility
Yes, conditions are configuring for extreme volatility...
Sc you look at the by this back at a cheaper level?
Yes, try for $67.
Strong reaction to the $67's.
Notice TVIX was rejected at the gap this morning.
Bought TVIX. $67.95.
you mean 69.75
No sorry bought earlier. Plan to hold now.
There may be more chances.
was a great trade i tried to buy 10000 shares but they didnt give it to me
Yes it's tricky. Moving very quickly.
Cycles are down into next week December 18th.
its weird how tvix and uvxy up a penny each
It's starting to look like may only fill the gap at $76 TVIX this week. Higher TVIX next week but plan to exit this week.
SC - do you plan to re-enter TVIX early next week then?
Maybe, but it's best as we get closer to December 18th to focus more on SVXY entry rather than TVIX/UVXY.We'll see.
I was a bit surprised TVIX went as high as it did last week. That move was exaggerated.
Sold TVIX $69.65.
I don't like how the TVIX was so high pre market today because the move may have already happened. Play it safe.
sc going are you going for the tripple trade today lol
May see the $66 TVIX
THE PROBLEM IS ARE WE TOPPING TODAY THE 12TH 13TH OR 18TH
The low is still December 16th to 18th.
SO I GUESSS I WILL SHORT UVXY AROUND THE 18TH DOWN TO 10
Yes, that is the dominant move.
This is actually very simple. Chart coming...
Here comes the nightmare...https://youtu.be/xR8oke8rzp8
DID U BUY TVIX?
Plan to enter before the close or tomorrow morning.
Down days tomorrow and Friday with tomorrow the worst.
Let the games begin!
UV XYA at the bottom of the channel
Maybe I'll buy a 100000 UV XY here then if it goes lower another 100000
I have a funny feeling trump will delay the tariff
Ultimately the tariffs will not be an issue.
Bought TVIX $66.90.
The TVIX mid support (orange) is around $65 tomorrow. So possibly that could be tested.
i guess 59 then up on tvix
i am wonderingg if thats the bottom in tvix?
bought more uvxy at 14.48
Could also hold TVIX until December 18th anyway.
your now grasping at straws, basing a trading decision on a tariff possibility, heck, there is more of a chance the british vote lead to a little down move You should take a look at 4th year of first year president....second best time to invest in first term potus....What is reality, wall street doesn't want a change in potus....they will run it up thru august of next year, they are going to not let a democrat win.....good luck shorting this market.....
theres gonna always be volatility my average uvxy was 14.60 i made money i will short any pop on volatility
delay of tarrifs
piece of shit the only way is to short this crap
long uvxy 14.88
How is this even legal. They will never let this fall.
sc whats your prognosis now that we blasted through 65?
Still the same
ok kool wiil buy back
vix aint jivin with tvix and uvxy
i am out uvxy 15.o5
TVIX still looks good for the pop into December 18th. Nothing new.
when you say pop what price 75
SVXY forming lower high. Next week it drops to touch the 50 day moving average at $59.50.Very simple.
long uvxy 14.80
SC - Are we going to get a larger pullback in SPX next week with the way it's gotten stretched to the upside?
lol what a pig today
SCDecember 11, 2019 at 11:53 AMDown days tomorrow and Friday with tomorrow the worst.
I am out fu this piece of shit I will short if it pops 14.65
Bought UV XY at 14 I'm a glutton for punishment still made money though
Bought more 13.93
Bought tvix at 57.10
everybody hiding behind there desk lol
sc are you gonna ride this down like last time?
svxy broke a new high now what
Wow svxy breaking out
Bought tvix 51.66
SC what is after jan. When uvxy hits 10. Looks like this market wont give up 10 spx pints
January very negative.
Bought uvxy 12.80
18th high instead of low?
Still expecting low.
sc since we broke the orange pitchfork what is the prognosis now
SC - are we still looking for SVXY to roll over into the 18th or is it going to be into Xmas now?
Yes expect a dip into the 18th, then the Christmas rally will begin.
TVIX and UVXY targets are valid, but not for this month. They'll hit in January.
SC; your dates keep changing... The rally won’t stop until the end of the year...SCDecember 9, 2019 at 12:56 PMTVIX could see as high as $90 by December 18th
I agree, Santa Claus rally is coming.
18th is the VIX futures roll over date so that is probably the temporary low for TVIX & UVXY. Another date that is close is a Bradley turn date on the 20th.
So u expecting early jan uvxy 10 than fall in spx
so you 66 buy was not for this month? it was for january
The targets are for January
sc are you gonna dump on 18th?
Detailed charts are coming soon.
SC seems like we are going to be topping into the 18th if anything and will need to hold for a bigger pullback into xmas/year-end?
Year End rally is likely. The VIX Futures curve is against TVIX/UVXY until January.
Stock block is going to 3350 by may of twenny twenny
New charts posted!