When VXO trends up for two years, it typically sees a large move higher on the third year. An outsized move in volatility is coming due in the year 2020.
A test of the 1987 trendline would take VXO up to approximately 65, and surpass all peaks since 2008.
Yearly Chart
VIX typically tops out 5 points less then VXO at volatility peaks giving a VIX target of 60.
Yearly Chart
Wow! A 60 VIX would mean a significant drop in the S&P and a huge spike in UVXY. VIX was only at 36.07 on Dec 24, 2019.
ReplyDeleteIt's going to be a lot of fun!
Delete2018
ReplyDeleteSC, or anyone know what form GBTC use for reporting, it says it doesn't issue 1099B? Thank you!
ReplyDeleteGrayscale, the fund manager, gives information on calculating tax on their website. There is no form because it's a trust.
DeleteSc vix 60. When u expect that what will be spx low for that
ReplyDeleteLet's examine SPX with charts.
DeleteThats more longterm!
ReplyDeleteVolatility is turning up for the long term.
Deletesc are u still expecting 19 or are you expecting 27 then 19 on uvxy?
ReplyDeletedont understand not now
DeleteUVXY still looks to have some downside. It's coming down slowly, I'm still just waiting. Probably a large gap down will mark the bottom.
DeleteJUST LIKE I THOUGH 28 NOW 19 THEN 50
ReplyDeleteYes
DeleteSC, spx topped, this is the start of the big drop?
ReplyDeleteYes it is the start. For SVXY the flat top has begin. That was the left corner yesterday. It'll still take 30 days for the top to form. SVXY will retest $59 soon.
DeleteBought SVXY $56.50.
ReplyDeleteShort term target SVXY $59.
DeleteSC are you still holding for $59? Does that equate to a retest of the highs on SPX?
DeleteSVXY turned right at $59, and dropped to $55 as expected. The drop yesterday confirmed that the flat top is the correct topping pattern.
ReplyDeleteNo. The drop is over. Just sideways now. Then much, much higher.
ReplyDeleteThat's why I'm short uvxy
Delete3167 will happen. No question. Perhaps this month.
ReplyDeleteim not sure but that would be nice to see uvxy at 19
DeleteDoes today's action change your opinion, BC?
DeleteShorted uvxy 30.10
ReplyDeleteMy projections got completely whacked today...I'll default to earlier comments I made (below)...50 dma and gap are at 2926 tomorrow...and you have 2931 strength. There will be a rally to 2973 at some point. Tariffs don't hit until Sept 1 (White House probably backs out before then).
ReplyDelete"Be Careful July 19, 2019 at 8:45 AM
Intra-year gain will probably be 25% = S&P 3167. I don't think the drops get below 2940 for July. Also, 2873-2889 will hold for months."
"Be Careful July 12, 2019 at 5:43 AM
Two worst case scenarios:
Bad earnings = 2926
Trade war worsens = 2873"
I always appreciate your input.All the best.
Deletesc now that svxy has broken 55 target still 59 in 30 days?
ReplyDeleteYes
DeleteShort uvxy at 32
ReplyDeleteLoving this. Let's get that Sunday night 2873, 5% correction whack down. It might only get to 2886-92. Then up to 2953-73. It shouldn't dip too far under middle line of weekly Bollinger...for now.
ReplyDeleteSC, are you still looking for 3040?
ReplyDeleteYes, it will.
DeleteSC; what is the time frame you are looking at SPX to be at 3040?? since the China tariff deal had a huge market impact to be a worst week of the year... I still believe a bounce is expected though..
ReplyDeleteWow uvxy 23 to 34 who called that no one
ReplyDeleterip your face off rally coming in my opinion
ReplyDelete2,810 SPX is the number to watch. July high was about 80 points higher than May high. The June low plus 80 points is approximately 2,810.
ReplyDeleteSPX should still see a higher high 3,075 after this pullback.
ReplyDeleteSvxy target 59 still ?
DeleteWow everyone is quiet
DeleteSVXY estimate top out $61.
ReplyDeleteThat means uvxy will see 19
Delete61 when?
DeleteAssuming this pullback completes in August, the June, July rally was two months, so that suggests the top in October/November.
ReplyDeleteSo that means SC; you are looking at SPX to be at 2810 or around this month, before it bounces back to 3075...
ReplyDeleteYes, that is correct. I'm updating the model now, and will post the update soon.
DeleteHow the hell did we miss that move up
ReplyDeleteShorted more UV XY at 37
ReplyDeleteI will short this terd until it goes down
ReplyDeleterip your face off rally coming tomm in my opinion2875 to 2900
ReplyDeleteWoah, didn't pause at 2873. Panic all around! The market broke. But 200dma at 2790 and gap 2744. Should get a bounce to 2907-2914 from...where?!
ReplyDelete"Be Careful August 2, 2019 at 8:46 AM
Loving this. Let's get that Sunday night 2873, 5% correction whack down. It might only get to 2886-92. Then up to 2953-73. It shouldn't dip too far under middle line of weekly Bollinger...for now."
2784 afterhours.
ReplyDeleteSC...we missed this move...will have to wait for the next setup. I am just curious since you said SPX would peak in July and has now dropped swiftly...do you have some more SPX charts you can share to give us some insight? Thanks,
ReplyDeletescam vix up 225 uvxy up fn terd
ReplyDeleteYes, we are seeing the second pullback in the model. I'll post the update, and it will show these moves very clearly and what comes next.
ReplyDeleteExpect a small bounce 30 points and this pullback to finish 2,810 SPX.
Just a pullback, the model shows when the real selloff is going to occur.
This is all about volatility, and was able was able to pinpoint the turn very accurately.
ReplyDeleteClose enough! 200 points on that first drop.
ReplyDeleteSCJuly 4, 2019 at 7:14 AM
"We're going to see just how bad things are on July 17th when the stock market plummets 150 points to kickoff the drop."
SVXY turned right at $59.
ReplyDeleteSCJuly 23, 2019 at 6:13 AM
"SVXY has a little more upside to go. It'll turn at $59. UVXY ~ $22."
SCJuly 23, 2019 at 6:22 AM
"It's simple. When SVXY hits $59, it's time to enter UVXY for a trade."
Yeah but you bought SVX1
DeleteYes, was looking for a longer topping pattern. It's okay, it'll rise back up into September.
DeleteSPX is forming a low in August, September 3,050. The rally will be sharp but give it a week or two to bottom.
ReplyDeleteSPX still a good short.
ReplyDeleteAre you still hold an S3XY
DeleteYes, SVXY best performer into September.
DeleteLooking to add soon.
DeleteIn 4 days SPX lost all of it's gains in 2018, and 2019.
ReplyDeleteYes SPX is still making higher highs, and you can call it a bull market if you want, but the real bull is volatility.
ReplyDeleteYes I'm a little confused I think we go up into 22 what is your uvxy target
ReplyDeleteUVXY may have a little more upside in August but $20 to $23 in September.
DeleteWhen you say a little more upside it's a more upside from 34 35 Or are we going over 42
DeleteVIX has surpassed the high in May.
ReplyDeleteVolatility is beginning to heat up, but it's early, just the beginning. Don't worry about missing this little pop in UVXY. The big moves haven't started. I know I'm going to thoroughly enjoy this!
New chart posted!
ReplyDelete