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Monday, September 9, 2019

SVXY - Leg Down Soon

SVXY declined off resistance after failing on a test of the September 2018 high.

It is clear that SVXY is leading lower.  SVXY is making a bounce, but likely close to an inflection point once again.  Resistance is just above with a confluence of support showing at $46.

Volatility to spike soon.

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Before: July 3rd Analysis

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64 comments:

  1. SVXY dropped from orange resistance and bounced at blue as planned.

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  2. It's going to fail again soon. Estimate about $1 left upside SVXY. Fail around $54.

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  3. Don't think we will see the turn this week. It's close but let's see this mature.

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  4. SVXY has reached the $53 target today, but UVXY not quite at it's $26 target yet. Because we are approaching the inflection point, UVXY probably slowly grind lower into the turn.

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  5. SPX may be getting ready for a big up day. A 60 point jump Friday/Monday.

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  6. "As Congress returns to Washington this week, President Donald Trump's administration is pushing for swift approval of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement."

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  7. Replies
    1. SC - clarifying your forecast...are you saying new highs on SPX first before the larger fall in SVXY? Thanks!

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    2. Most likely, yes. The model does show a higher high though it is best to be conservative I think.

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  8. Gold is interesting right now. Trend says 1500 but fibs say 1450.
    Pick your poison, Nugt or Dust

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  9. Oil broke a down, narrowing flag to the upside.
    Natgas is on a tear...blew through resistance at 3.5, however,
    getting overbought.

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  10. short lived pullback 2947 then all time highs in my opinion

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  11. SC,
    Incredible calls, thank you!
    Looking at this drop in SVXY, it is going to be spectacular.
    Is this going to be a quick drop?
    Also, do you expect entering and exiting along the way or is it a one position ride?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, it is going to be a deep and quick drop for SVXY. Plan to hold UVXY for the next swing. Just simply hold for the ride.

      That's the beauty of these moves, large and clean swings. Many more to come as this is the beginning.

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  12. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14lCqmS5nM8

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  13. SC, with UVXY at $26s, do you still see 60 point jump SPX Friday/Monday?

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    Replies
    1. Jumped yesterday and today so I think SPX probably settles back 2,990 with maybe one more push next week.

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  14. curious,, are the comments on this blog time posted when it was sent or after it was filtered=screened ??

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  15. sc still holding svxy it has hit 54 you looking for 55 56?

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  16. SVXY is clearly trending down. The 50 day moving average has already rolled over.

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  17. The SPX 2019 model suggests we could see 3,050 on this move, but it also shows a drop to follow to 2,850.

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    Replies
    1. Yes probably 3050 maybe even 3080 I love to trade I've mad alot shorting these and trading sc are u expecting less then 26

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  18. The numbers are getting quite favorable to short although there may be a little left in this rally.

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  19. Bought uvxy 25.60 and shorted svxy at 54.20

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  20. Replies
    1. UVXY has settled four weeks, the trend remains up for UVXY for months to come...

      The previous high was around $40, and UVXY should surpass that number this time. $41 would be an ideal target. $38 is a good realistic target.

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  21. Replies
    1. VIX is about to see golden cross on the daily chart. It continues to have a golden cross on the weekly. The long term trend is up for volatility as VIX works it's way to 60.

      VIX to double short term.

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  22. Sc do u think after 2850 or so spx will make new high

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  23. Most importantly when we compare SVXY to SPX we see relative weakness. SPX is near the high, and yet SVXY has no ability to recover.

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    Replies
    1. SC - in your opinion will this be the final SPX top before beginning the larger downtrend?

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  24. "(CNN)The House Judiciary Committee on Thursday approved a resolution defining the rules of the panel's impeachment investigation, the first vote the committee has taken related to the potential impeachment of President Donald Trump.

    "The investigation will go well beyond the four corners of the Mueller report, and we will be starting with a first hearing on September 17th, we expect among others, we expect Mr. Lewandowski to testify," he said."

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  25. Replies
    1. From earlier posts in the summer SC said the target would be SPX 2,635...

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    2. Inside day today for SPX which is bearish.

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    3. how the cycles looking for next week? thanks

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    4. Down cycle next week, but I don't think this is the big reversal yet.

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  26. I'll do an update for SPX and we can look at the targets.

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  27. SC, so one more pop to 3050 possible then the big drop? half position in UVXY now

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  28. SILVER has sold off hard over the past week or so. Do you think the peak has been reached or a higher high will occur by year-end?

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    Replies
    1. I'll take a closer look at the charts. The turn certainly looks to be near.

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