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Tuesday, August 6, 2019

$SPX - 2019 Model Update

SPX has continued to follow the 2019 Model with deep pullbacks and higher highs and higher lows.

This pullback in SPX should complete in August and is likely to be followed by a higher high in September according to the Model.

The price action is typical following a consolidation year.

Daily Chart

















SPX 2019 Model:

















106 comments:

  1. Es hit 2782 on aug 6 dont you think
    That was close enough or are you expecting a double bottom

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    Replies
    1. I thought it was interesting that SPX respected the model and didn't see that level on the futures.

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    2. https://imgur.com/a/wMh5fSF
      Aug 5th es futures td ameritrade

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  2. The model is clear here though. Expect a bounce and a little lower in August. Little downside at this level.

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  3. Looking closely you can actually see yesterday's bounce and today's dip.

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  4. Are you shorting this bounce? 2900?

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  5. so after this bounce anther big drop?

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  6. Nice short yesterday, good long this morning. Short soon again.

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  7. Volatility works both ways

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  8. UVXY $30 or under good for a trade I think.

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    Replies
    1. close enough then up on uvxy to where 34?

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    2. SC wouldnt it be wise to shift out of svxy and flip into uvxy for the next drop or are you expecting higher in the shortterm?

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  9. just plain english
    https://imgur.com/a/7o4wwSb

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  10. i will short this pig again when it pops the prrofit was 2 great
    i had no choice

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  11. Did we see the top Thursday?

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  12. there is a possibility that we hit 279 on spy

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  13. looks like we are on our way down

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  14. did you see the last 15 minutes.This market is so rigged.

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  15. SC, do you still see higher next week? what price are you looking to sell SVXY?

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    1. Yes, expect the rally to last two more days.

      UVXY $28 Tuesday then $40 on Wednesday/Thursday.

      Something is about to happen this week. What is it? I'll guess Iran.

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    2. sc wondering if 40 first then 28 lol?

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    3. so your looking for 1 day vix drop

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    4. SC, now your reaching big time, pushing on strings for a black swan....if your a cycle guy what would you even mention Iran for

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    5. what Black swan event the one on cnbc this morning lol

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    6. i am looking for a gap up tomm looking above 2900

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  16. WOW! That would make for an awesome week!

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  17. Resistance is 2940 under 2900 seems to be a problem

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  18. i think new highs are coming into september

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  19. wow another day like today we will be at 40 on uvxy

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  20. What is more important, uvxy at 28 or SP at 2930-2940?

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  21. Bam!!! There we go! Volatility should settle down.

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    Replies
    1. SC - are you still waiting to buy UVXY near $28 for a pop to $40 this week?

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    2. Yes, and it's looking excellent!

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  22. In my opinion shorting every pop in uvxy has made me nice money

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  23. SPX holding quite well actually. I think we've seen the low for this month. Up for 4 weeks next.

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    Replies
    1. What is important here is to see how we close the week.

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    2. Charts say the selloff due September 16th.

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  24. Again, probably what we are waiting for is the ratification of the US Mexico Canada agreement in September.

    Therefore, SPX rally into September.

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  25. Today was forecast as a big down day, and certainly we do have that.

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  26. Bitcoin plunging again. May see another bounce 9,800 to 12k. Overall it is heading for the 8k target.

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    Replies
    1. SC, I checked the website you mentioned regarding GBTC, still a bit confused, so when I sell GBTC the gain is the profit from GBTC sell - Trust's expenses? Thanks!

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    2. Yes, search Grayscale Bitcoin Trust 2018 Tax Letter. All the expense information is there for 2018, and examples of calculations.

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  27. uvxy looking like 40 before 28 lol

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  28. im gonna short this turd until it drops

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  29. 2843 exponential 200 day average we should bounce up hard let's see?

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  30. RIP your face off really coming!!!@@

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  31. sc do you plan on taking more svxy?

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  32. Sc well you did call 40 just came earlier

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  33. 2816 is only 7% down. We should be at 2744-2777 with the news headlines! Hope we get there :(

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  34. It's just amazing how UV XY hit 40 twice

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  35. Fractals of exactly one year ago or even this past May...2876-92 important. 2908-13 extremely important in near future.

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    Replies
    1. It might blast through that tomorrow
      Bradley turn on 16

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  36. sc im thinking 32 on uvxy and 18 on tvix your thoughts?

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  37. Similarities in price/time to 1967 so far https://imgur.com/a/XPNlKQd

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  38. Replies
    1. Good call, it might rise into the close today.

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  39. Replies
    1. Bitcoin dipped to 9,800, and can spike to 12,000. Just a quick pop.

      SCAugust 14, 2019 at 9:00 AM

      "Bitcoin plunging again. May see another bounce 9,800 to 12k. Overall it is heading for the 8k target."

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  40. Expect SPX to rally all of next week, hitting another high next Friday 2,950.

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    1. You might hit that today with a strong close

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    2. so 2950 in August,, then 3050 high in September?

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    3. Yes, this week positive. The high should be on Friday but it won't be much higher than on Wednesday. Thursday a down day so exiting longs on Wednesday is a good strategy.

      This week looks strong and yes September looks good too, but there is a catch. Next week big selloff. Look to short Thursday or Friday.

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    4. Thanks for the heads up SC

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  41. SVXY $53 next Friday August 23rd.

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    1. That's the next bradley top I will wait till monday I was expecting a lot higher today it might go higher today as well But a mass of profit like that it just had to be taken

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  42. Bitcoin surging from our entry! Beautiful!!

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  43. Big sell off? My curiosity is peaked.

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    Replies
    1. Yes, UVXY coming down to the $28 and then....

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    2. SC - Do we got back to 40 on UVXY and then onto new highs for SPX?

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    3. UVXY coming down to our $28 and $44 UVXY next week.

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    4. I will buy that at 28 it shorted at 44 this is the 3rd time this had 40

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  44. Notice Bitcoin and SPX are now in alignment! Spiking together this week and plummeting together next week...

    Bitcoin 12k this week 9,100 next week.

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  45. Hot close!!

    Therefore consolidation day tomorrow.

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  46. Sc I'm thinking 2893.63 spx then up to 2940?

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  47. Looks like a major trap here I believe in my opinion the May lows will be tested again

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  48. there are 2 gaps 2857 and 2893 either we fill them now or later

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