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Tuesday, December 17, 2019

SVXY - Year-End Rally

SVXY is getting ready to run up into Year-End.

The VIX Futures curve is heavily in favor of SVXY with a Santa Claus rally.  TVIX remains at a disadvantage until January.

60min Chart
















TVIX is bouncing on orange support.  However, it will likely head lower soon into Year-End.

60min Chart
















152 comments:

  1. Seems like markets are struggling here

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    1. SPX is extended here like in past rallies...whenever it rolls over it will probably crash like Jan 18 etc...

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    2. Yes Rob, exactly! January!!

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  2. Maybe we will get a big pullback of 5 points tomorrow....lol

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    1. Obviously going long UV XY and TVIX has been a big mistake 2 times in my opinion the only way to be a short this piece of SHIT all pops I've made a fortune shorting these things

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  3. TVIX found orange support this again and moving higher.

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  4. Impeachment vote coming tonight.

    The impeachment itself is not overly concerning, but what it does is create tension all of which is adding to an extremely volatile election year coming 2020.

    Volatility is the place to be. Best trade on the board.

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  5. Im not lookin to hold a big position down to 10

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  6. sc are you expecting tvix uvxy to move up this month or you lookin for move in january

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  7. Sc, still selling today, or wait for the vote?

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  8. SVXY is overbought on the weekly for the first time since the crash of 2018.

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  9. Expect SVXY to continue to become more overbought as it approaches Year End.

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  10. USMCA is likely to be ratified soon.

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  11. We have talked about the VIX futures curve a lot, and it is in favor of SVXY here.

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  12. im not sure if its smart to short volatility here? trump inpeachment vote it might be smart and sit on side

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  13. Still long in BTC, though, after the carnage..?

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  14. 5 kids no body believes in Santa more than me

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  15. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XXvF6gqo4E&feature=em-uploademail

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  16. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VF0_L3LSURo&feature=em-uploademail

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  17. I think I will buy a 1st batch of TVIX at the end of the day today

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    Replies
    1. You don't think there's gotta be a Santa Claus rally and a vicks smackdown next week

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    2. I don't know. I'm guessing that we have had the Santa rally. I think the big boys have run it up & got there bonuses. I'm thinking the VIX is not going lower from here & if Jan is a big volatile month & the 20th is a turn day, than this is a good spot for a 1st batch.

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    3. i will wait for a big up or down i dont trade the flat line

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    4. Merry Christmas happy Hanukkah Happy Kwanzaa whatever you guys celebrate joy

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  18. UVXY was dropping by leaps and bounds, now it barely moves even when the market goes up...

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  19. Dont look like uvxy going to drop to 10 by new years

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  20. SVXY is moving slowly but is building a solid base, and because it is just starting to get overbought on the weekly, SVXY likely to rise for several more weeks.

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  21. Cash is king looks likesvxy gonnagetslaped here

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  22. sc what is your price target uvxy in january

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  23. I have very specific dates and timing coming for January.

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  24. 2020 - The moment volatility traders have been waiting so patiently for...

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  25. I’m excited to see the new charts and dates.

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  26. SC what are your targets for SPX? When do we see a good decline?

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    Replies
    1. Michael, spx goes lower now into about 7 trading days,, then up for new high again,, you will see good decline after Jan..

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    2. The time is coming michael. I'm just waiting as this rally finishes. A few more weeks yet.

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  27. SC the only thing you own is gbtc correct and at what price will
    you be willing to buyu tvix or uvxy thanxs

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  28. i noticed sc you bought uvxy at 65.85 and its not listed on ylour trades

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  29. ok thanks didnt see it i have been short this uvxy from 14

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  30. SVXY 3 drives to the high. The first peak was around Christmas. It's pushing towards the second peak.

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  31. I'd imagine that Pro Shares wants to reset UVXY. It wouldn't surprise me if UVXY falls below 10 and then they announce the reset.

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  32. Svxy is not even moving uvxy short i have almost 2 points already
    i just think that svxy is laging here

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  33. Sc can u please post chart where we r

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  34. its outright obvious the best thing to do is short the pops on uvxy
    and tvix tvix droped 10 bucks already Im not saying that will be forever but thats been the trade

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    Replies
    1. Yep Since TVIX $130. https://www.screencast.com/t/PvgGYEt9

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    2. But it does look like its time to back out of any VIX short vehicles.

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  35. The market will be choppy now for the next 10 days but still working towards a high.

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  36. This is setting up beautifully. No reversal yet, but what is happening is momentum is fading.

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  37. No one else going short yet? We might have made a Jan 2nd high...CNN Fear & Greed was at 97 yesterday...

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    Replies
    1. We're getting into the configuration...

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    2. SC - When are you planning on getting long tvix/uvxy/etc? Thanks!

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  38. There we have a little chop as expected

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  39. this market dont turn around today im out

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  40. SC: if i have understand well you are waiting the end of this choppy market before buy volatily. So i think is good to buy put options on S&p500 when we have the entry point. In this case the "pull back" could start next week? and if so.. could end at be beginning of february? Around 3100 ?

    many thanks!!

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    Replies
    1. Yes, we are working towards a high currently. I have a window later this month for volatility and will be posting the charts and timing soon. Plan to position for January volatility with etf and options.

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    2. Specific targets and timing coming soon...

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  41. Sc did u see futures. What now

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  42. Just a little chop. We go higher.

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  43. Hahaha

    https://youtu.be/1bDD914rahc

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    Replies
    1. Thanks SC! - Do you have any SPX targets for the high?

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    2. Probably not much higher, maybe 3300.

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  44. Jungle in deed, tanking overnight then all time highs in the morning.

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  45. SC...do you have a new up to date chart for UVXY?
    or the spx

    Thanks

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  46. Svxy is a slow mover tvix short moves much better

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  47. Not a top yet, but SVXY may dip to $63 here.

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  48. The calm period is almost over.

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  49. Lol let's make a few million on the next trade

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  50. When do u see a start of financial crysis? Any targets for dji or s&p befor that? Or date? Some traders expect dji to hit 43k and see that coming not earlier than autumn 2021. What about u?

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  51. Replies
    1. If SVXY dips to test the 50dma at $62 TVIX could see $60 on a pop.

      It's too early for a larger turn, but even for that move this is an fair entry.

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    2. Haha I wish it goes to 60 Thou be a big hit

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  52. So where do u expect spx on this pull back

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    Replies
    1. Might see a dip here, still early for the turn we are looking at later.

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  53. You only way to be a short this piece of crap

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  54. I put 10000 share order in in after market didnt give me 1 share

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  55. SC, one question. Do you still think VIX may see 7 in 2020? My calculated target for the S&P was 3292.97 (cash), possible 3318.79 around january 17, 2020. But I would not be surprised if one or the other may be reached already by the end of this week.

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    Replies
    1. Yes, VIX is on pace. Not now but later. This is the year. It's all about volatility.

      Very good. Yes, SPX close to a peak.

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  56. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcaFkuYchS0&feature=em-uploademail

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    Replies
    1. Thanks Louis. I appreciate you posting Peter and The right side as updates become available.

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  57. volume etfs not moving just like oct 3

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  58. SC : is this the week where the choppy market could end and the down wave on S&p500 could start? So We can see volatily go up ?

    2 weeks are ending...

    many thanks...

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    Replies
    1. Expect the turn next week

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    2. this market aint droping the only think thats dropping is uvxy and tvix the only way to make money is to short these etfs when they pop

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    3. once they announce a signed trade deal market will be over 3300 and then bank earnings will drive this market straight up

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    4. tesla got to be a short here mrvl my favorite stock

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    5. seems like the blog sells up 1 buck when drops 6 does nothin

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    6. SCJanuary 13, 2020 at 6:51 AM

      Expect the turn next week

      So why did you buy tvix last week if expecting turn not this week but next?

      Ref:
      SCJanuary 9, 2020 at 10:00 AM

      Bought TVIX $46.25.

      Current price $42.55 and falling.

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  59. It's all going according to plan. SVXY and UVXY are getting close to the targets.

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  60. The Vic's looks like October 2nd 2018

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  61. As most of you know I have a rule not to participate in the last move before a turn. Therefore, SVXY is off limits.

    Just starting to build volatility positions.

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    Replies
    1. haha i have 10000 shares thats enough right now

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  62. Am I able to post a chart here? If so, How do I do it?
    thanks

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    Replies
    1. Yes, you can. There are some programs to post a link. Dropbox for example.

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  63. SC are you still holding tvix from $46.25?

    What is your plan with that position?

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Yes, building a position for the turn due next week. Will post the charts with targets.

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    2. Many thanks SC - glad to join you!

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  64. What the h*** is wrong with this thing shoots up to 42 40 in 2 minutes and crashes and Burns lol

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  65. Excellent UVXY is in the $10's.

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    Replies
    1. Yes it is if we held that short you were right what's next

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  66. SVXY forming a classic exhaustion.

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  67. Although the market is practically exhausted, it still needs a little more time.

    I'm expecting a small dip here and a little higher for 4 to 6 days to hit the peak.

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  68. Are you expecting UVXY to be closer to $10 or lower?

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  69. I think it likely will hit $10

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    Replies
    1. Sc you dont think we hit 12 1st then 10

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    2. Yes I agree. We can see that move before anything larger occurs.

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