Interestingly VIX touched the nose of it's symmetrical triangle yesterday.
It appears that a wedge is forming. The trendline is just a touch lower. A period of high volatility is due to commence starting from July and into the Fall months.
With SPX approaching yet another failure at the same level it's tried to break for a year and a half now, you can expect to see some panic in the months ahead.
VIX appears to be getting ready to test it's December high.
There was no fear in May.
ReplyDeleteWith SPX approaching yet another failure at the same level it's tried to break for a year and a half now, you can expect to see some panic in the months ahead.
VIX appears to be getting ready to test it's December high.
Sc U expecting vix to be 12 in july
ReplyDeleteYes, 12's. It's getting close.
DeleteAlso will spx touch dec low or lower
ReplyDeleteNo. SPX will selloff from July for several months, but it's not going to see December levels on this next decline.
DeleteIt's because VIX was relatively calm both in December and in May that VIX is ready for a larger move relative to SPX.
The time is coming for volatility.
ReplyDeleteNotice the symmetry here. VIX high in December. Low forming from April to July. High due September.
ReplyDeleteSo how low will spx go
ReplyDeleteSPX target 2,635.
DeleteSeptember is statistically the most bearish month of the year.
ReplyDeleteSc so Are we going to 2900 or 2800 first then highnot 3000 then down into fall but not 2300
ReplyDeleteExpect SPX a little lower next week around 2,900. SPX may have already peaked, but bounce into middle of July.
DeleteSPX selloff starting July and bounce around 2,780 to 2,810 and decline further to 2,635 in 3 months.
So it will hit 2635. But vix will go to high of dec
ReplyDeleteYes, when the 2,728 low break, VIX will spike quite aggressively as traders panic.
DeleteIt's a perfect setup for volatility.
DeleteI'll post the SPX chart with targets and timing soon.
ReplyDeleteAs Bitcoin and Gold keep heading north.....triple off the lows for BTC, Gold going much higher.....1600's is in the cards....
ReplyDeleteAre you saying UVXY could go into the $70s or high $60s? UVXY was $88 back when VIX was at 36.
ReplyDeleteEstimate $50 UVXY which would be a double.
DeleteMore would be nice Scott but let's wait and see. Best to be conservative with targets.
DeleteSC from here are you waiting to buy UVXY still around 27s or 30s?
ReplyDeleteUVXY should dip to $30 pop to $33 and down to $27 in July. There is a little trade there but for the bigger play $27.
ReplyDeleteSc do u think uvxy will hit 28. So spx. 2965
ReplyDeleteThere still is one positive event and in my opinion that is what we are waiting for. That is the ratification of the US Mexico Canada trade agreement.
DeleteStill could see 2,975 SPX.
wondering if we could hit 2903 today ?
ReplyDeleteNot yet, bounce for a few days. See that number next week.
DeleteQuarter end on Friday.
DeleteSVXY still holding okay.
DeleteSPX rallied on the no rate cut and collapsed soon after...
ReplyDeleteSCJune 19, 2019 at 11:37 AM
"Market likely to rally short term on the no cut but collapse soon after."
that would be awsome i would like to get back in uvxy and spxs!!!!!
ReplyDeleteBitcoin reversal. Bitcoin dropped 2,000 in 15 minutes. The run is over.
ReplyDeleteBitcoin chart is coming with analysis, model, and next target!
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