Pages

Thursday, August 22, 2019

UVXY - Interesting Timing

As volatility marches higher with VIX moving to 60, the runs in UVXY will expand in size going forward.

UVXY looks ready for a run...

Daily Chart

120 comments:

  1. UVXY should see a little lower tomorrow, but tomorrow as it happens I have a busy schedule.

    Let's see action!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. The UVXY 200 daily is at $44.19. The UVXY 50 weekly is $44.55.

    Both averages have converged to the same price. It will act as a magnet, UVXY heading there, and hitting it soon.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Uh oh, futures plunging on China Tarrifs.

    If UVXY pops to test either the gap at $34 or $36, exit because it may delay the selloff though it won't stop it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. your thinking 34 to 36 then sell and then buy back at what price

      Delete
    2. Great calls as usual SC!! Thanks for keeping us on the right side!

      Delete
  4. If the selloff is delayed, the move will become larger. There's no such thing as a free lunch. It does not matter to me, either way is fine.

    Let's see how it goes today.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I'm surprised no one is commenting after today's action

    ReplyDelete
  6. What is important is to wait and see whether the market recovers today. I think it will.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. no way it recovers, Trump is going to roll back the delay on other tariffs.....2690spx gap is now the target..
      2500 not out of question for first 20% real correction....

      Delete
  7. I have a plan in place, but for now just wait, and we can talk about the next steps.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I have a plan that if I sell today, I can’t get back in till Wednesday (dumb plan). Does it make sense to sell today?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Es futures rallied 2858 I believe we see 100 point rally into mon tuesday

      Delete
    2. I don't get you folks, First SC says huge sell off next week, now you guys are all long......with auctions, bad G7, China retaliation Sunday...the market is baked...all cycles are down thru end of sept.

      Delete
    3. honest credit guy its up to you if you want to hold i like to trade and why hold if there is a potential for a 3 to 4 peercent pop up i will be looking to get back intouvxy at a lower price!!!!!!! I think there is a possibility of a huge drop after monday but in the meantime i will trade good luck

      Delete
    4. honestcreditguy agree with your assessment, intermediate trend points down now. Short term is a bit positive do to how we ended at the end of day but otherwise agree

      Delete
    5. well, I would be chicken if I didn't come back and eat crow....Louis was correct, I was wrong.....the Miracle on Monday morning was a huge stick save.....never saw that one coming....I will now go cook the crow....

      Delete
  9. Replies
    1. If we recover, I am projecting price target between 2900-2920 before substantial drop to gap support at 2680.

      Delete
  10. The SPX 2019 cycle remains negative, and it is declining in line with expectations.

    The downturn happened intraday Friday as determined in advance. There is another shoe to drop.

    SPX wants to test the August S&P futures low. SPX tests 2,780 this week hitting on Wednesday.

    Monday can see 2,810, but bounce to close green with a hammer up 15 points. Tuesday looks the worst with a 60 point drop. Wednesday down another 25 points to 2,780.

    Markets down this week with tariffs set for September 1st.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC outstanding calls sir! Thank you for sharing. When do you expect market to bottom? Is it this week? Are you still sticking to your 3050 prediction in Sept? Best of luck this week.

      Delete
    2. Thank you Tom! Yes bottoming on Wednesday or Friday this week. Look to cover shorts and go long either on Wednesday or Friday. Either day is fine, the prices should be the same.

      Yes, I'm pleased it's going as per the plan, and yes same number for September.

      Best to you as well!

      Delete
    3. Thank you for sharing your plan. If it is not too presumptions, what do you usually trade? UVXY and SVXY or other etfs?

      Delete
    4. Specialize in volatility, and it is truly the key to understanding this market. The years I have invested into volatility cycles and models all comes together at to this moment! Last year was able to foresee the parabolic rise and collapse of XIV. Now we continue as volatility enters the next phase.

      Since XIV was wiped out completely last year, I switched my charts to SVXY. There are specific moves that I am seeing play out over the coming years for SVXY. UVXY then for the counter moves.

      I have always followed the S&P. UPRO, and SPXU.

      I like to find and develop models to explain the market. I find it helps to show the readers rather than just explain with words. The picture is more valuable to see.

      Delete
    5. Thank you SC for taking your time to answer my questions. What level ofspx would change your view? I mean if we reach 2940, would this invalidate the model or just push back timings? Best of luck today. Hopefully, we will get great entries.

      Delete
    6. It is possible that the timing could be delayed. We'll have that answer this week. If it is delayed I have a plan for that too which takes a little longer but more lucrative.

      Delete
  11. I'm thinking up friday over 2900 we will see

    ReplyDelete
  12. Sc are you looking to get back in uvxy at lower cost?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Look to reenter UVXY tomorrow or Tuesday morning, might get a little lower entry or may have to chase a little, but not by much. Let's see.

      Delete
    2. probally tuesday im expecting 2960

      Delete
  13. Hi SC,
    Awesome calls, thank you very much for sharing them with us!
    I would love to learn your methods in analyzing the VIX if you were ever willing to share them.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you! Let me see what I can do to post some methods and analysis.

      Delete
  14. Covered my tvix short a blessing over the weekend

    ReplyDelete
  15. 2777, 2744, 2710. Today we are on May 16, 2019 :)

    "Be Careful August 1, 2019 at 2:58 PM
    Tariffs don't hit until Sept 1 (White House probably backs out before then)."

    "Be Careful August 15, 2019 at 8:08 AM
    Fractals of exactly one year ago or even this past May...2876-92 important. 2908-13 extremely important in near future."

    ReplyDelete
  16. 29.60 by tomorrow tuesday looks likely

    ReplyDelete
  17. SC, remember this chart from before? Where do you see SVXY bottoming? https://imgur.com/a/6CG2XrJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes that is the same chart I'm using. Working very well. Found resistance and support at the levels shown.

      $43 is the number to watch but it is still finding support here.

      Delete
  18. Based on today's closing, ultimate target is 2940-2960. We will come back to retest 2840

    ReplyDelete
  19. SC, are you still looking to reenter UVXY, at what price?

    ReplyDelete
  20. SC, Are you planning to buy uvxy this morning or waiting for better entry?
    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  21. This is why on Friday I felt it was best to exit UVXY and wait for the dust to settle. I'm still waiting.

    The selloff is close, it is coming soon, but waiting for the entry. Today is an important day. Make or break.

    From what I see the short entry September 6th and selloff into September 13th.

    UVXY is already in a rising trend. But I think $26 to $40 for the next run, and it will have another run and continue higher after that.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC - Are you expecting SPX to bottom around the 13th and begin the rally from there to 3050? Thanks!

      Delete
    2. This is turning out to be a protracted process.

      Delete
  22. The VIX weekly 200 is at 14.75. If we tested that it would be perfect.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Just to clarify, your waiting till September 6th for your next entry?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, that is the plan. Market bounced once more off support.

      Delete
  24. The daily forecast was for an up day yesterday and then down days today and tomorrow.

    It appears accurate, but the problem is that for SVXY this is the tightest range we have seen on the weekly bar. Not what we want in my opinion for UVXY.

    Next week expect to see SVXY $52. I do think it is best to wait for next week for the UVXY.

    ReplyDelete
  25. In addition UVXY has been up 4 weeks in a row, this would be 5. So it's in a tight range and reluctant, due for a rest. Probably UVXY down next week.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Well I'm looking for the mark to explode here 2950 Max target

    ReplyDelete
  27. I am short TVIX which is the sister of uvxy 21.10

    ReplyDelete
  28. SC, so low Wednesday, then up until the 6th? Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, may see a little lower tomorrow but probably not much. I think it will likely be quiet now the rest of the week.

      Delete
  29. Vix up 14 cents uvxy up 70 cents Tells me you uvxy gonna drop like a stone

    ReplyDelete
  30. market is not acting right we could drop this week if things dont change

    ReplyDelete
  31. well there is thepop that should of happened yesterday

    ReplyDelete
  32. looks like 2950 then a smash down

    ReplyDelete
  33. What happened to Down Wednesday this week and Friday? Market has popped since Wednesday? The DOW chart of an end of August low is also not correct??

    ReplyDelete
  34. The daily moves are based on SVXY. The low did hit this week on Wednesday. Early in the week I could see quickly that this wasnt going to follow through much to the downside. Exiting UVXY Friday was a smart move.

    ReplyDelete
  35. This is a sucker's rally. This rally will look very strong early next week, and the bigger move will be down. Watch closely...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So we are going higher then 2950? Maybe 2960 2980?

      Delete
    2. Aiming for the 50 day moving average

      Delete
    3. SC - SPX up to 2965ish early next week and then down to 2800 for the bottom in September?

      Delete
  36. If China sends troops to Hong Kong over this weekend or the next (13th weeks since rioting started), markets will go down big. Question is - will it happen? The week of September 9th is primed for a turn date.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is a good point, thank you.

      Delete
    2. October 1 represents the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.

      Delete
    3. chinese people are great people but ccp big mob scam

      Delete
    4. ccp about to get slammed in the face
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBl05xNq_AU

      Delete
  37. SC, what target you see for SPX high?

    ReplyDelete
  38. SPX should rally for a few days, quite strongly.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. are you still expecting 26 in uvxy i shorted tvix at 19

      Delete
  39. I guess your svxy target would be 53

    ReplyDelete
  40. The 50 dma is SPX 2,943. It should at least overthrow that number. Gap almost filled around 2,885.

    ReplyDelete
  41. SVXY closing strong, same price it opened. Very good.

    ReplyDelete
  42. possible: https://imgur.com/a/YdNrJxz

    ReplyDelete
  43. Replies
    1. Yes, bearish. Silver spiked as expected, but it'll fizzle.

      Delete
  44. SC, cycles up the rest of the week?

    ReplyDelete
  45. Are you still expecting $26 UVXY by the 6th? Seems like it is still a long ways away.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I know. It has ground to make, let's see. A good day today, gets us a lot closer.

      Delete
    2. SVXY at your 52 target. Looks like they squeezed all the bears out before the fall. Great calls SC!!

      Delete
  46. Friday's low hit yesterday which means up big today. Higher tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  47. What’s more important, S&P 2950, UVXY at 26, or the 16th? Are you looking to buy on the 16th or are you looking at the 15th for an entry?

    ReplyDelete
  48. we just broke out above bear flag we are aproaching uptrend line
    coming closer to s a short

    ReplyDelete
  49. sc the question is are we going down into sept 11th and then topping on sept 16 or going up into the 16th then dropping hard?

    ReplyDelete
  50. It was a nice week, and we accomplished much. It still looks like more upside next week.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Sc what is your target spx. And what date

    ReplyDelete
  52. SC, when do you see the next turn in cycles? no drop this week?

    ReplyDelete
  53. We broke out of the bear flag We could drive to 2940 what I think will go and hire to 3027

    ReplyDelete
  54. Sc great call 26 on uvxy almost there

    ReplyDelete