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Sunday, September 15, 2019

SPX - Weekly Losses

SPX advanced with three weekly bars, but last week it gave a bearish signal when we look at the last bar.  The bar was the weakest, and closed Friday down with an inside day.

This week, SPX will probably drop to erase last week's gains, and test gap support as shown.

60min Chart

99 comments:

  1. I had warned that an event was about to happen, and suspected Iran. We have now seen that result. Saudi Arabia has been massively attacked, the largest in 29 years!

    Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, has been hit with devastating losses which has impacted the global oil supply and markets.

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  2. Thanks as always for keeping in the loop SC.

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  3. What's shocking to me is that after a bombing like that in Saudi Arabia that the spx not down 50 points

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    Replies
    1. Oil shares spiked initially which countered the fall in other shares, but the damage to momentum has been done.

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  4. Futures traded down to the 2,990 identified last week. Bounce around and down to the 2,975 SPX.

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    Replies
    1. SC, what's the UVXY target for this SPX drop?

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  5. sc i think we pop up 50 points from here into wednesday to 3050

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  6. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DN7iV5xaRdM

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  7. The 2,990 hit exactly yesterday. It won't be able to hold.

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  8. Looks like USMCA still not ready... oh well, market to drop first.

    "House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Tuesday that Democrats aim to get to a place where they can approve updates to the North American Free Trade Agreement, but still have concerns about enforcing the deal."

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  9. SPX is constricted by the upper trendline pushing down and the moving averages pushing up.

    What happens in these cases is that the moves become more violent as the pressures build.

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  10. Pessimism is taking over. The market will become unresponsive to the jawboning of meetings, discussions, lunches or telephone calls with China.

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  11. VIX runup as it approaches options expiry this Friday, September 20th.

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  12. Are you looking to go long SVXY Friday to S&P 3050?

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    Replies
    1. Let's do an assessment later in the week. It may be too risky at this point.

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  13. I think I’m safe saying that we’re all risk adverse (except Louis, just kidding Louis), so that sounds like a good plan.

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    Replies
    1. Remember what happened last time the Vic's explode to the upside and so did the market

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  14. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kn6fUXkGTjs&feature=em-uploademail

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  15. lol this piece of crap going down when market going down

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  16. At one point the VIX was up over 3% shortly after the market opened. Both UVXY and TVIX were (and remain) in the red.

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  17. Uvxy and tvix will rip higher vix up tvix and uvxy down
    we will test july lows there are two gaps in spx to fill
    sept 4 to 5th 2940 and 8 28 gap on dasily chart 2888

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  18. so SPX down and VIX up almost 5%, and UVXY still red

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  19. It's just this stupid quadruple witching on Friday. It doesn't matter though.

    VIX is holding above the 200 weekly. The golden cross is inevitable. Soon both daily and weekly VIX will be in positive alignment...

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    Replies
    1. Ya I'm pissed. I play HUV.TO, same thing. Lost 2.5% in a few days compared to value 3 days ago

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  20. Boom!! VIX takes out Monday's high.

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  21. What happens when the Vic's drops is this UV XY gonna get slammed in the face

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    Replies
    1. But maybe so. Let's see it play out. It may make sense to step aside at some point. We will see about that.

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  22. SVXY most likely heading down to $53.

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  23. Replies
    1. I'm out as well. I do NOT understand what happened today. And if I don't understand something - I get out. I doubt I'll ever use UVXY again. I'm surprised there was not more explanation.

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    2. Don't say something ridiculous like that you can make a lot of money when UV XY also shorting UV XY when it makes a big pop so don't say that

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    3. Also when you're buying 40 50000 shares I made money with that transaction because I bought at the bottom

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  24. The only thing that makes sense is that the overnight monthly resettlement of the VIX jumped the VIX Futures to over 17. The UVXY is composed 60% of VIX Futures. SO: if the fund had to pay more for those October options, it may explain why the UVXY never made it out of the red until after the FED announcement. I still don't fully understand it.

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  25. If you look at the 5 minute chart on September 12 looks exactly the same as today that's why sold it I'm gonna buy It back

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  26. UVXY wants to test the July low $23's. Fine. It'll be trading in the $28's soon.

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    Replies
    1. That's a long way from the $45 indicated on your
      August 22 chart. Are you altering, refining your projections for UVXY?

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    2. VIX/UVXY/SVXY - all building negative divergences over last few weeks on the 1H chart...reversal is near...SC when do you expect SPX to bottom?

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    3. I'll do an update of the 2019 model which continues, it just works. Target the same. The chart above worked well this week also.

      With this week's action the market bought itself a little more time which is okay.

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  27. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjAQmbRSvk4

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  28. SC, we were looking for 2975, SPX low was 2978 yesterday, do you see that maybe it? still holding my UVXY

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  29. Sc is there a point you will average your position down and what price would that be 21 22?

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    Replies
    1. SVXY may finally get overbought. It didn't get there in April nor July highs.

      So that may be what we are waiting for at this point.

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  30. Im wondering if uvxy could hit bottom line

    https://imgur.com/a/aBRhqWY

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  31. SPX selling to extend into next week. UVXY back to $25.

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  32. SPX support 2,950, likely to be tested next week.

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    Replies
    1. The neg/pos divergences on UVXY/SVXY/VIX suggested a much larger topping pattern...this is only the start lol

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    2. We're about to see something really special...

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  33. There's the $25. Thanks to the 4 witches!! Hahaha

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  34. We saw the test of $23's and $28 UVXY comes next.

    SCSeptember 18, 2019 at 1:01 PM
    "UVXY wants to test the July low $23's. Fine. It'll be trading in the $28's soon."

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  35. China!!!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDrfE9I8_hs&t=9s

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  36. bought more at the bottom this morning, sold 25.66

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    Replies
    1. MY POSITION IS CASH I WANT TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS MONDAY JUST GOT RID OF ALL

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    2. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SPX POP ON MONDAY THEN DROP
      THATS WHY I AM WAITING

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  37. always take profits on pop with this monster

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  38. Yes it was!
    Great call, thank you.
    I was a little worried this morning.

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  39. Looking forward to your updated 2019 model.
    It was very helpful and spot on.

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  40. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjAKBq1cMRQ

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  41. we had on a daily chart 9/25/2019 pink arrows we hsd another
    pink arrow engulfing pattertn 3/4 2019 march 19 2019 april 17 2019 and recently on august 22 each move was overe 8 points most were over 10 points up there was only one pink engulfing arrow that happened april 3 where there was no move but eventually it came april 17
    look at pink arrows below in my chart

    https://imgur.com/a/2jsnhF2

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  42. I also forgot to mention we have another pic in golfing on September 20th 2019 4 days ago

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  43. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_uoMjknwEKw&feature=em-uploademail

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  44. UVXY chart is coming! Target is $30 but plan to be conservative and exit $28 or $29.

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    Replies
    1. Looks like we are about to get our fireworks with the trump impeachment on deck lol!

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    2. only by the house louis lol, it will never pass the senate of course. long live trump!

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  45. sold tvix 14.15 and covered my svxy short 53.20

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