SVXY - Year-End Rally

SVXY is getting ready to run up into Year-End.

The VIX Futures curve is heavily in favor of SVXY with a Santa Claus rally.  TVIX remains at a disadvantage until January.

60min Chart

TVIX is bouncing on orange support.  However, it will likely head lower soon into Year-End.

60min Chart

TVIX - Friday the 13th Nightmare

TVIX is settling here and may cool further this week before it makes the next strong move.

Friday the 13th will likely be a nightmare for the stock market with new China tariffs due to hit on December 15th.

30min Chart

UVXY - Short Term Target

UVXY is likely forming a low this Thanksgiving week, and up into December 13th with the next Tariffs in the China trade war hitting on December 15th.

30min Chart

TVIX - Short Term Targets

TVIX is likely forming a low this Thanksgiving week, and up into December 13th with the next Tariffs in the China trade war hitting on December 15th.

30min Chart

Bitcoin - 8,000 Support

Bitcoin has settled back to test 8,000 which can hold as a level of support.

Currently Bitcoin is probably forming a "W Type" bottoming formation which can continue in the coming months.

Daily

SVXY/UVXY - Levels and Timing in Focus!

SVXY has broken out and is poised to continue higher.

The next high is due later in November around the time of Thanksgiving.  At that time the price will then see down pressure into December 13th with the next China trade tariffs due to hit on December 15th.

10min Chart

UVXY has clearly broken down below long term support...

2 day Chart

SVXY - Breakout!

SVXY has been able to breakout from the blue downtrend.  As a result it is likely heading higher in November.

Orange channel resistance is the November target.

Daily

VIX - Rectangle

The VIX has formed a rectangular pattern, and is approaching the main trendline and rectangle support.

VIX is bound within the rectangle in the short term.  Once the pattern matures the moves will become extremely violent.

Daily

SPX - In VIX We Trust

SPX has a clear Double Top which completed this September.  

The top is in.  Last week the trendline was broken to the downside.  SPX will soon resume the downtrend which is already in place.  

Daily

VIX has been trending higher for years.  Starting in August the VIX trend began to accelerate to the upside.

Weekly

VIX continues to trend higher to break the 1987 trendline which has already been previously tested.

Yearly

SVXY has been leading lower for more than 1 year to date.  The recent failure of SVXY to test the July peak was the "tell" that SPX had, in fact, topped.

Daily

UVXY - V Bottom

There is strong probability that UVXY has formed a V bottom.

Expect UVXY to rise the same way it came down.  UVXY can be up every day next as it rises towards to the red line as shown.

15min Chart

30min Chart

SPX - Weekly Losses

SPX advanced with three weekly bars, but last week it gave a bearish signal when we look at the last bar.  The bar was the weakest, and closed Friday down with an inside day.

This week, SPX will probably drop to erase last week's gains, and test gap support as shown.

60min Chart

SVXY - Leg Down Soon

SVXY declined off resistance after failing on a test of the September 2018 high.

It is clear that SVXY is leading lower.  SVXY is making a bounce, but likely close to an inflection point once again.  Resistance is just above with a confluence of support showing at $46.

Volatility to spike soon.

Daily

Before: July 3rd Analysis

Daily

UVXY - Interesting Timing

As volatility marches higher with VIX moving to 60, the runs in UVXY will expand in size going forward.

UVXY looks ready for a run...

Daily Chart

$SPX - 2019 Model Update

SPX has continued to follow the 2019 Model with deep pullbacks and higher highs and higher lows.

This pullback in SPX should complete in August and is likely to be followed by a higher high in September according to the Model.

The price action is typical following a consolidation year.

Daily Chart

SPX 2019 Model:

VXO - 1987 Trendline

VXO has formed a trendline from 1987 to 2008.  VXO has been spiking frequently, and has been in a rising trend for two years now.

When VXO trends up for two years, it typically sees a large move higher on the third year.  An outsized move in volatility is coming due in the year 2020.

A test of the 1987 trendline would take VXO up to approximately 65, and surpass all peaks since 2008.

Yearly Chart

VIX typically tops out 5 points less then VXO at volatility peaks giving a VIX target of 60.

Yearly Chart

SVXY - Leading lower

SVXY has retested the April high yet it has no strength to test the September 2018 high.

It is clear that SVXY is leading lower.  SVXY is close to the important blue line resistance, and sideways price action is likely to mark this high.  Resistance is just above with a confluence of support showing at $46 later this year.

Daily

UVXY - Almost Ready - Low Due in July!

UVXY has been consolidating for another spike up, and a low is due in July.

The descending triangle broke down with a calculated UVXY target of $27.  UVXY is almost ready with a low forming in the weeks ahead.

VIX is likely to retest it's December high by the September/October timeframe.

Daily

Bitcoin - Sudden Drop Next

Bitcoin analysis posted July 16th, 2018 proved to be accurate, with the bottom forming in December, and Bitcoin hitting the 14,000 target yesterday.

A sudden drop is coming next.  Bitcoin is likely to drop to the 8,000 level which has become strong support.

Daily

 
















Bitcoin:  July 16, 2018 Analysis:

Daily

$VIX - Wedge - Short Term Targets

Interestingly VIX touched the nose of it's symmetrical triangle yesterday.

It appears that a wedge is forming.  The trendline is just a touch lower.  A period of high volatility is due to commence starting from July and into the Fall months.

Daily

Gold - Fake Breakout!

Gold traders are excited about a breakout, but we can see clearly that Gold is approaching strong resistance and the dominant trend remains down.

Gold has been down off the major high in 2011 for eight years so far with the Gold bear market to continue.

Weekly

SVXY - Right Shoulder Forms

SVXY continues to have difficulty and is showing relative weakness compared to SPX.  At best, SVXY  may attempt to challenge the white downtrend line from September.

The Head and Shoulders is intact and the Right Shoulder is nearing completion.

Daily Chart

$SPX - Selloff Next!

SPX has formed a tight range, and volatility is subsiding which indicates that a June selloff is likely to occur next.

The white line may be tested next week before the selloff begins.

Daily Chart

$VIX - Testing Trendline

VIX is very close to testing it's trendline and has been coiling for several months.  Watch for the reaction here and selloff for SPX.    

60min

UVXY - Descending Triangle

UVXY has formed a descending triangle pattern with a test of the lower boundary today.  It may spend some time filling out the triangle next.

Eventually it may bust the triangle with a dip below, but for now it has been finding support within the pattern.

Daily

$SPX - Short Term Outlook

SPX may have a little upside yet, but this rally has been a bit much and a bit fast.

Any further upside and SPX probably dips as shown below.  It may then be in a holding pattern until the second half of June.  Another rally in later June and into July 4th most likely next.

Daily

SVXY - Update

After five down weeks, SVXY was due for a bounce.  SVXY has consistently found support at the neckline and blue mid support.

Some up weeks next are in order.

Daily

UVXY - Triangle Symmetry

UVXY has been cooling off, and may be getting ready to spike soon.  Price should settle back some more though as the timing matures.  Maybe a week to go which coincides with month-end.

Month-end low with potential spike up thereafter.

Daily

Bitcoin - Resistance Reached

Bitcoin melted up through the midpoint, and has reached the upper resistance.  It will probably settle back next.

An overthrow of resistance is quite possible as shown, but the resistance is strong enough that the price is likely to decline for the next three months.

Daily

SPX - 2019 Model - Targets and Timing

SPX continues to see failed rally attempts as it struggles to try and recover losses.  The price action appears strikingly similar to 2013, and that period provides a good model for this decline.

It is probable that this selloff is in the early stages, and the model shows the heaviest selling ahead.

3day chart

SPX 2013 selloff:

The longer term view also looks comparable, and the model predicted the drop in 2018 also as shown on the charts below.

3day Chart

SPX 2013 Comparison:

SVXY - Large Head and Shoulders Formation

SVXY continues to be extremely weak.  The rally failed at the timing predicted with the white lines.

A large head and shoulders pattern has formed.  After completing the head, SVXY bounced at the double support with neckline and middle support as shown.

The Right shoulder is underway...

Daily

Before: April 12, 2019 analysis

Daily

SVXY - Resistance/Support Levels Identified

Once SVXY cleared the recent high, the likelihood is that it is running to test the previous peak.

Overall a trend sideways has established.  Resistance and support levels are shown.  Notice that relative to SPX, SVXY is considerably weaker on this run.    

Daily

Bitcoin - Approaching Important High

In January 2019 analysis bitcoin was identified as likely to rise to 5,500.  That move is underway.  Once bitcoin broke out above the white trendline, the price spiked.

Bitcoin is approaching double resistance with the red horizontal above.  Once the price objective is reached, bitcoin is set for another fall with the same size as the November decline.  The measured decline with price target is shown.

Daily

Before:

January 23, 2019 analysis: 

"Bitcoin is likely to be consolidating for a pop next.  Price has been holding in a tight range which typically occurs just before a stronger move.

A move up to test the red horizontal next is anticipated."

Daily

SVXY - Before/After - Bearish Move Ahead!

Momentum has been lost, and SVXY is continuing to struggle at the 200 daily and weekly 50 confluence of moving averages.  Most probable a head and shoulders topping pattern is forming.

The left shoulder and head are complete.  The right shoulder is forming.    

Daily

Daily

SVXY - Head and Shoulders!

SVXY is struggling at the 200 daily and weekly 50 confluence of moving averages.  Most probable a head and shoulders topping pattern is forming.

The left shoulder is complete with the head forming now.    

Daily

UVXY testing September low, expect a strong reaction...

Daily