Pages

Thursday, August 30, 2012

$SPX - Plan for Next Week

SPX is approaching the yellow midfork today.  Short term, price may attempt to bounce off that again soon, but stay below the upper turquoise fork.  Overall, SPX is anticipated to decline into a low due around September 6th.

30min Chart















At the current pace UVXY probably will not reach over $6 until next week.  As a result though, the target has been raised slightly.

30min Chart

117 comments:

  1. I think your theory really hints on what Big BEN does tomorrow at 10am. This downward move in SP and small spike in VIX maybe sell the rumour buy the news. I think we need SP to firmly close below 1400 and Sept VIX to close above 20

    ReplyDelete
  2. Trimmed my holdings and sold some at $5.73 in premkt.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Now that you have sold, watch VIX spike 20% like last time ! (just kidding)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Lol, still have some. I do think next week looks better.

      Delete
  4. Replies
    1. The action is picking up slowly.

      Delete
    2. SC, if you're expecting SPX to drop further next week why did you trim some of your position?

      Delete
    3. I'm expecting UVXY to dip next to $5.35 +/-. So planning to buy that dip and position for next week.

      Delete
  5. VIX well above upper bb daily, and 17.57 gap filled. uvxy only gets to 5.8, sad...I agree we see low-mid 5's again.

    ReplyDelete
  6. SC, do you still see mid-Sep as an important low and after mid-Sep cycles will be positive again?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, SPX still heading lower into mid-Sept. The white trendline is likely to be tested imo.

      Delete
    2. ok, but after mid-Sept, the cycles will turn positive again as you mentioned before?

      Delete
  7. Don't get the feeling market's think Ben will save the day, or that it would have much lasting effect either way. I'd like to see VIX close below upper bb and uvxy 5.4's at close...then I'll buy again.

    ReplyDelete
  8. SC, when do you plan on recapturing some UVXY? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Are markets closed for labor day? Also, do you think you could put down the %'age of your position when exiting/entering? I'd appreciate this. Thanks

      Delete
    2. Lower gap to fill now, and daily overbought. I think we re-test 5.05.

      Delete
    3. Yes, closed Monday. Sure will define %.

      Delete
  9. Bought HVU on Monday at 13.80 sold today for 15.60....No longer waiting for the home run play....If I could do this 2-3 times I'm back in business

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's the way to do it. Nice job!

      Delete
  10. "SCJuly 26, 2012 7:21 AM
    VIX is near bottom. Once the bottoming process is complete in early Aug, then it should start to rise gradually first, accelerate up in the second half of Aug, and finish mid-Sept.'

    Guess you will eventually get it right if you keep saying months after months, stop deleting posts from people who want a bit help from you, they listen to you and get in around 12s when you said not much downside left.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SC,
      Perhap what would help those that got in the 12's and are still hurting is your longer term forecast on when your cycles expect UVXY to reach your higher targets in the 20+'s...Then they can make an informed decision on what they want to do short term and long term. tks.

      Delete
  11. SC, you still like 5.35 here, or are you seeing continued strength in spx?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, UVXY still can come down some more I think.

      Delete
    2. I put a buy in @ 5.4 but just missed out
      is it coming back down do you think today?

      Delete
    3. Lol, I had one in at $5.39. I think it still should come down. Let's see how it settles out here.

      Delete
    4. wow, that didn't take long :)

      Delete
    5. SC, have you bought any UVXY today? Thanks

      Delete
    6. No, pulled my bid, waiting for this to settle down. I think $5.30-35 is an interesting level.

      Delete
    7. my order filled @ 5.4 but sold again @ 5.45
      will try to buy lower too

      Delete
    8. Maybe light volume towards the second half of the day may send UVXY down rapidly...

      Delete
  12. Replies
    1. Added another 30% at $5.27.

      Delete
    2. are you back at a 100% position?

      Delete
    3. Now I have a large position again. I could still add more to overweight. Probably small bounce soon, then might go a touch lower later.

      Delete
    4. Thank you, hit the cluster of fork lines on UVXY. Bounce around here then may still overshoot the forks, and so could see a touch lower later today. I'm holding for the target over $6 next week.

      Delete
  13. Nice short term call today SC.....will you be holding your position until the mid 6's for next week or will you sell them today if UVXY bumps back up to the top of today's range?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I just saw your post above so no need to answer my query other that would you sell if UVXY bounced back up near today's high?
      Cograts again on a good call for today. I like to give both cheers and jeers where deserved. :)

      Delete
    2. Lol, no, I'm going to hold what I have, and may buy another block later today.

      Maybe bounce up to $5.48ish then cool off again. This is a nice setup for next week.

      Delete
    3. Next time it breaks solidly over $5.60, then on the way over $6 imo.

      Delete
  14. VIX break out, now backtesting the 50dma. Likely relatively quiet for a day or 2 as things settle.

    ReplyDelete
  15. hi SC, when you talk about %, you mean account % thx.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The % refers to how much I want to hold. 100% is a full position size. I can go heavier to overweight also.

      Delete
    2. sorry to insisist but does a 100% full position mean a 100% account position, if not how much % of account is a full position? (just trying to learn) thx

      Delete
    3. No, I trade other markets as well so not the whole account but large position. How much (or if at all) someone wants to trade UVXY really boils down to a personal decision for an individual considering their circumstances, experience etc...

      Many prefer to trade S&P instead etc...

      Delete
  16. bullish consolodation on spy's....bearish on uvxy...get ready to load up in an hour...imo

    ReplyDelete
  17. SC what happened to you 17 dollar silver... you still banking on that..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The last short term target I had on Silver was $32. Yes, Silver is still in the same bear market as for the last year and a half.

      Delete
  18. SC, when do you see the acceleration start?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. you mentioned that 1st gradual rise, then acceleration.
      We are still in gradual rise stage right?

      Delete
    2. Yes, still the gradual rise phase for UVXY in the big picture. The big picture charts are coming soon to show how things unfold.

      For now the short term view as above looks good.

      Delete
  19. Great calls this week SC! Keep up the good work and have a great weekend!!!

    ReplyDelete
  20. Would love to see those big picture charts over the weekend...it's called Labor Day for a reason).

    ReplyDelete
  21. I posted yesterday my UVXY targets for next week (you can see the chart on the link under my handler). For next week my targets argee 100% with SC both on direction and target prices and we used 2 different methods to arrive at the same price targets: pretty scary, NO ? and I didn't even see this new posting of SC until now. Of course we could both be on the wrong side of the market next week, LOL.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DoctorBoom, what is your approximate time frame for SPX 1566?

      Delete
    2. My estimate is next year around March to May but that's just an estimation based on historical data, I am just too busy right now so I haven't done a thorough analysis with Gann and Fib time cycles yet and the othere reason is because normally I just play my trades against targets not so much care about time.


      I know in my long term monthly charts I had S&P turning around at 1566 fo a big fall; however that was based on EW cycles. My Gann & Fib time cycle analysis is predicting S&P will top out around end of May 2015 and trough at around end of Aug 2015 (the 2 Gann & Fib analysis only differ by a couple of months between them, and both agree on 2015 as the year) so there may be a chance that 1566 is just a temporary stop and S&P may cross above that...but as I said I normally play with targets, time is not as important so long as it doens't go beyond a certain window so my time analysis is normally not as thorough as my targets analysis.

      I see that you have your own blog using astro in predciting time cycle, I am interested in what your analysis say --- thanks in advance.

      Delete
    3. Very interesting, thanks. Yes I have a very important turn at May '13 (and another in August '13) which is why I asked.

      Delete
    4. Just posted the Fib time cycle chart on my blog. Thanks for your info.

      Delete
    5. Thanks DB. Here are some important geocentric harmonics near your 2015 dates.
      Saturn crosses 72° Rx on July 2, 2015.
      Uranus turns Rx near 72° July 26, 2015.
      Saturn crosses 72° Direct on September 1, 2015.

      Delete
    6. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    7. Also Armstrong has a major turn at August 2013. His date is 10 days before mine.
      http://armstrongeconomics.com/2012/08/29/will-we-collapse-by-august-2013/

      Delete
  22. MARKET CYCLES

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  23. SC: can you please post or comment on silver if not too much of a trouble.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Silver has reached the $32 area that I've mentioned previously. I think there will be short term resistance soon. So it may bounce around this level for a while next, but this fall may see as much as $39-40 for Silver.

      However, in my work Silver is still in a bear market.

      I'll do an update on it now that is has reached $32, and explain my outlook for the rest of the year.

      Delete
  24. Does anybody know the answer of "IS THIS THE END OF THE BULL MARKET?" by scotty? if he is right on a couple of months, I would like to attend his member group.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't think Scott would have any idea beyond a week in the market and even for that he struggles.

      Delete
  25. good morning
    are we still on track for a couple negative days? The timing experts, including ZZ are saying we are going positive up to Sep 18
    we need to be carefull

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have an update coming with a more detailed look at Sept with dates and levels to watch. This week is quite negative in my cycle analysis. So are parts of next week. Heading for 1380 SPX next.



      Delete
    2. are today & tomorrow negative days?
      If so, will sell UVXY & buy XIV tomorrow

      Delete
    3. The whole week is negative. I think UVXY moves up to $5.60 area and spends a day or 2 hovering there. Break out later in the week over $6, then I will look at XIV.

      Delete
    4. Sept is set to be a volatile month as I'll explain in the update.

      Delete
  26. you have gone from calling $3, $6, $10 moves in uvxy to 25-75 CENT moves... not good for those sitting on HUGE losses in that ...(remember when it was 12 and you called a move to $28)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please if you're going to play UVXY, try to follow SC's short term moves, even if it means selling at a loss. Sitting on UVXY will destroy you.

      Delete
  27. man, vix screaming up...and uvxy about to go negative.

    ReplyDelete
  28. SC, I have a CIT date of Sept 6 which just happens to be when Draghi speaks then again on Sept 13 when the FED releases their minutes.

    Do you think possibly we head down into the 6th then up into the 13th then down again?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Both those dates look like lows from my work. This is set to be a volatile month so best to approach things one step at a time.

      Delete
  29. SC, has the minimum target been reduced for UVXY or does it remain the same? also, when do you think this target will be reached. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The same $6.30 to $6.60 range, and can hit that later this week.

      Delete
    2. what about the bigger picture target? is that the same or has that reduced. Thanks

      Delete
    3. The same. Those charts are coming.

      Delete
  30. Hi SC. What do you think about Silver? I went short a bit early on it, but wondering what your analysis shows near term targets to be? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think Silver finds resistance at this level and short term small dip next - couple $.

      Delete
  31. I sold @ 5.5, protect some profit
    its too difficult to bet against ZZ. He sees new highs up to Sep 18 and than a sharp decline. His accuracy in 2012 has been incredible.
    good luck all

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. going with someone who has been right for almost an entire year. You dont think there is a very high chance he finally wrong?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. The high of UVXY was 5.54, you exited pretty good area.

      Delete
    3. InvestBB: Do you have different view against ZZ?

      Delete
  32. Does that mean you change your roadmap and forecast since now you will play XIV?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, not at all. When UVXY pops over $6, I'll look to pick up XIV only for a short term move.

      Delete
  33. Does anybody suggest to buy TNA? it is so strong today, look like cup and handler here.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not yet imo, later in the week or next week.

      Delete
  34. I'm a sucker for punishment so I just bought back in to UVXY @ 5.30
    tomorrow is supposed to be the change in trend, so am gambling on 1 more kick at the can for a surge up.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Also SC hasn't sold his yet & his short term trades are usualy good, so lets hope for another move

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I am holding. Today is actually the day I marked on the chart above for UVXY low. Still the same plan.

      Delete
    2. My cycles very negative every day the rest of this week for SPX.

      Delete
    3. I'm new at this so excuse me if my question is stupid.
      If today ends positive, than tomorrow's change in trend would sugest tomorrow being the high & mid Sep being a low, correct?

      I think I will hold to see what the end of day brings

      Delete
    4. Today looks like a high for SPX, and yes, agree low mid Sept.

      Delete
  36. Replies
    1. Already have lots, may top up my position. Great short term setup.

      Delete
    2. This should bounce right back to $5.60 tomorrow imo.

      Delete
  37. This was obvious. Democratic convention starts today, and markets are controlled by Dem friendly forces...you really think they'd allow selling during convention? They're going to pump it heavily the next few days for same old false perception of prosperity.

    ReplyDelete
  38. vix up..uvxy flat. vix down...uvxy crushed. For anyone who says it doesn't mirror vix, at least peripherally, check out the correlation a few months back.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Since VIX has been rising, there is hardly any contango left for Sept VIX futures. So the next pop in the VIX should translate into a nice move up for UVXY in coming days.

      Delete
    2. glad someone sees glass half full))

      Delete
  39. SC, uvxy now below your support. thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Same plan. There is a ton of support at $5.15 also. Likely back to mid $5 tomorrow on the way to well over $6.

      Delete
  40. Sc your reasons are all dead on for the raise. the only thing that can shoot it down is the comments from europe this week. hoe do you think the political show will effect our chances of seeing past the 6

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think it'll reach mid $6 by Monday. The charts and cycles are all pointing lower for the markets. There are many red flags such as VIX up today along with SPX.



      Delete
  41. vix has moved from 14 to 18 and UVXY is still near its all time low.. maybe you need a better way to play the vix, UVXY is NOT working.

    ReplyDelete