Pages

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

$SPX - Blow-Off Top Potential

There could be potential for a blow-off top in this situation.  SPX is trading within the yellow fork, but if it breaks above then it would quickly spike up. 

Any such breakout would be considered false as the cycle analysis becomes extremely negative for most of August, and part of September.

60min Chart

131 comments:

  1. Potential only, but things could become interesting soon. If it spikes up I'll be ready to short.

    ReplyDelete
  2. SC, thanks for the update.
    If the blow-off comes, the resistance will be the top of the blue fork, 1408 area, right?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The blue fork shows where price could go if it spikes up. This is a situation when it could happen.

      Delete
  3. It could spike up (for all the markets) if the FOMC statement beats positively market expectations...

    ReplyDelete
  4. 1402 was the target of the inverse head & shoulder formation, and it is also Gann 360 degrees north of the low @1329, so I think that will be the top for the current rally.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi SC, thanks for the update. Do you not see a sell off first and then a spike up into into next week? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SPX could spike up here, and then selloff into next week. Let's take it one step at a time.

      Delete
    2. I have ideas for next week. I'm going to let things unfold here first.

      Delete
    3. If it spikes will you be buying UVXY?

      Delete
  6. SC, do you think the spike up could come after the FED announcement or ECB tomorrow?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well it is not certain that it will spike, but today/tomorrow is a time when it could occur.

      Delete
  7. There is a bullish time count on the SPX....if it play out we should see a huge spike tomorrow...if we continue down tomorrow creating a bull wedge then we could see a spike next thursday...

    ReplyDelete
  8. SC, if there is no spike, what price of UVXY you looking to get in?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm going to let it play out some more here, and review.

      Delete
  9. SC, are you still at a 0 position in UVXY?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Bit of a strange day today as expected. Eventually the SPX showed a true reaction during the last few minutes of trading.
    Even though VIX was flat, UVXY dropped a bit...perhaps that will correct itself tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I'm still trying to figure out what happened to your $28 target SC. Is that coming in August or September? Unfortunately, I'm in at $15 and hoping for a miracle now:( The market just keeps floating on FED $ and Ben hot air. This is quite the contrast to 2008 when the Dems and the main stream media did everything they could to crash the market for election advantages. They underestimated the amount of money to turn the economy around though and the $5T added to the deficit was barely enough to buy the market up to 13K and 8% unemployment. But, maybe the $5T will be enough to buy this election too. Simply put, the banks are happy now and it doesn't seem like there will be any major selloff's until after the election. I just hope to get a bounce in UVXY to the $12's so I can get out with less of a loss and a big lesson learned. Got to hand it to the Dems, FRB, banks and media though, they really have a strong alliance. Your thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The second half of August particularly looks really weak, but the cycles are mixed in early August. I expect UVXY to do very well into late August, but it still is a little early.

      Delete
  12. Hi SC, looking at the futures it seems we will probably end the day negative...do you think we continue down from here or do you think we still have a good chance to bounce? thx

    ReplyDelete
  13. VIX is already up almost 4%....So it if this continues this could be a nice pop for UVXY and HVU....

    ReplyDelete
  14. SPX should have support soon, and even with the declines in SPX over last few days, UVXY has not gained over this time period.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, i noticed that as well. I'm still calculating a higher move due later next week...

      SC, do you see higher prints next week for the SPX?

      Delete
    2. I also see SPX heading higher.

      Delete
    3. SC, same targets as above on the graph, 1400 area?

      Delete
    4. Will do some fine tuning, but yes that area seems possible.

      Delete
    5. Do you still see UVXY get down to 5s if SPX to 1400?

      Delete
    6. It could though it is difficult to correlate precisely in advance with SPX.

      Delete
  15. "Late August the target will be low 1200's on SPX and $28 for UVXY"

    Are you still sticking to this theory ? Or has it changed it changed again ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. think it now delay till early september?

      Delete
    2. That was scrap theory. It was good only for that day.

      Delete
  16. Monday's high @1392 probably is a temporary high point. High chance S&P is making a rounded arc top and now the path of least resistance is back down to 1330ish, and if this level is violated then there is more hurting to come in my opinion.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Just a question..... What validity does SC have if the target and time frame keep changing from week to week ??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The target has always been the same and never will change.

      Delete
    2. Thanks for the reply. What about time frame ?

      Delete
    3. There are certain events that I am waiting to see next.

      Delete
  18. Complete V reversal in UVXY and HVU this morning

    ReplyDelete
  19. Guys, you are better off donating your money to a good cause. like starving kids, veterans, disabled ... than Mr. Market.

    ReplyDelete
  20. With the market tanking I would think the VIX woul be much higher...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. VIX does not believe this decline in SPX, and neither do I.

      I'm going to look for an entry in XIV soon (today/tomorrow).

      Delete
    2. I think SPX may want to tag the lower trendline before it reverses which is around 1340...

      Delete
    3. VIX may have a different opinion if the double digit SPX fall is maintained to EOD.

      Delete
    4. looks like a lot of support for XIV at 11...i will swing trade it there if it gets there tomorrow afternoon...

      Delete
  21. RUT tanked yesterday but is holding better than SPX today. NDX is also holding better than SPX today.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Hi SC

    wondering the price you looking at for an entry for XIV?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just looking at that now. Will let you know.

      Delete
  23. SC, I was wondering what you think about gold now ?
    Are you still convinced that gold will go up sharply in the short term ?
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I still like Gold, and the trend is rising.

      Delete
  24. SC, are you looking to buy some UVXY today?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Next week looks like UVXY finally hits the sweet spot. It's going to be great.

      Delete
  25. Are you also looking at Aug 9 as ZZ mentioned?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A lot of cycles are positive for SPX into Monday Aug 6th.

      Delete
  26. If SC is looking at the XIV, then it is time to load up on the UVXY.

    ReplyDelete
  27. So is the start of a "extremely negative ....August" ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have always said that the negative part is concentrated in the second half of Aug.

      Delete
  28. I just feel like you say so many things like July , then second half of August, then September ...that eventually YOU will be CORRECT.

    There has to be a cutoff at some point, in saying if this scenarios/cycle doesn't play by X date then it's out the window.

    Every time something changes the new chart that goes looks like the opposite of the previous one..

    Am I the only who sees this ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I can understand that, but in my work we did see the negative cycles in July. They were minor with SPX dropping 50 points. In my work this means that the larger negative cycle is in August. It is not going to change.

      Delete
    2. You have to take the cycles with a grain of salt. It seems better geared towards price objectives than time objectives to put it mildly. So trade accordingly.

      It does poorly for short term trading (days) despite what SC says. It may be better for intermediate term trading which we are about to find out in the next month or 2.

      I still think SC is sincerely trying to help us with his cycle analysis though. We just need to learn to take it as a data point and not as gospel.

      Delete
    3. Agreed ..cycles are just as much nonsense as elliott waves...make a prediction and then recount when it does not fit the wave pattern…similar to steering a car by looking in the rear view mirror..

      Delete
  29. SC Is your target for UVXY still $5.75 to $6.00

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We'll see next week. Possibly around $5.50ish.

      Delete
  30. So let me get this straight...You are not changing your stance with the UVXY $28 target right for this August (late August) ?

    and you expect to hit around $5.50ish next week ?

    So that means UVXY will increase 5 times to reach your target in the next 20 days ?

    Is there such a example of this ever happening in the past ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am expecting UVXY to come down a little lower next week. In my work it is clear that UVXY will do well during the second half of August particularly and right into mid Sept. I will plan to sell at that time.

      The targets are sound, and will not change. It is early to tell which dates the targets will be reached.

      Delete
  31. Ok thanks.

    So the min target of $28 UVXY will be reached by mid sept ? with the Maximum target coming in Oct ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is early to tell which targets hit on which date, but it is clear in my work UVXY will do very well into mid Sept. I will plan to take profits at that time regardless.

      Delete
    2. Hi,
      I don't think SC can answer specifics with a high level of confidence. Cycles are inherently generic by nature from what I can tell.
      ie. Price targets are about X or Y, cycles are weak or strong, timeline is around X or Y etc...

      You need to take these cycles as just a data point and combine it with other data points that you like to tilt the trading percentages in your favour.

      Delete
  32. Yet, ZIG expects new high by mid September and UVXY will see 28?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And that's what makes a market...when there are differing opinions. :)

      Delete
  33. SC by doing well in September you don't I hope you don't mean...selling at $8 range again .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, it will be a sizable move. Remember, my pattern correctly called for the UVXY spike a week ago, and the deep retrace following it. Once the bottom is in shortly, I will look for a gradual rise to start, and first resistance is $14-15 for UVXY.

      Delete
    2. SC,
      To add to the question above I believe there may be quite a few members who bought UVXY around $12 about a month ago and they are wondering how confident you are that UVXY will indeed reach $28 by mid-September at the latest.
      This would let them know if they should hang on until then or sell out at a loss instead.

      Delete
    3. Once I buy I will hold the position until late Aug at least and mid Sept at the latest. I am confident it will do well during this time period.

      Delete
    4. SC, this is not poking, but you said "deep retrace after the initial spike", if we get down to the $5.50ish, it would be another new low and does that still fit the pattern you are expecting?

      Delete
    5. Yes Trader it fits the pattern well. This is why I've been waiting patiently.

      Delete
    6. guys, don't forget, SC doesn't give trading advice, he simply advises what he is doing and trading is our own responsibility. Just saying.

      SC, your analysis has been pushed back and back and of course you don't have a crystal ball, however timing is an important aspect in your cycle analysis (infact its all about timing) and the bigger picture timing has been off substantially.

      Why do you not ever admit that a cycle is wrong and should be discarded, until new analysis replaces it? All cycles (Fractals) break down, but for examaple if you look at Redlinescenario.blogspot.com, you will see 11 for 11 on turn dates, quite an astounding record, but SJ was always clear that if one of those fails, the who RLS scenario is out the window.

      Delete
  34. http://zigzagcycle.blogspot.ca/

    ReplyDelete
  35. I'm going to do things differently in the future because what led to confusion in this case is that I have shown both the large cycle and the short term cycles.

    I thought the large cycle could start as soon as July, and that proved to be early. I was clear about saying that. However the large cycle is a 60 month cycle that is coming due. The short term cycles have continued to work well, and I am using those to time the large cycle start. The large cycle is where the real profits are going to be made. So I have patience for this cycle start.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, you thought it was in June it would starts.

      Delete
    2. Can you create a link on the right side and post a large cycle chart there with price levels and time windows and just update it periodically when there are significant changes? This should help avoid confusion and keep the eyes on the ball for everybody.

      It sounds like a lot of folks here burned most of their capital already and will be missing out on the bigger moves when they come, only because they were focused on short term action.

      Delete
    3. Kinda like ZZ's chart where he clearly posted, almost a year ago, big picture price action up to this point.

      Delete
    4. The point is that the large cyle is due and it is a big one. Although I am showing the short term cycles also, the large cycle is most important.

      Delete
    5. I tell you larger cycle ends with S & P 1260....not at 600..

      Delete
  36. SC,

    You said earlier when you were holding UVXY that will not sell until $28..but you dumped just day before UVXY started unleg...

    So clearly you didn't see UVXY jump coming and that is the reason you dumped your position and occured loss...now you claiming that you will enter in UVXY position around $ 5.50 and will not sell until $ 28..same claim and I am saying it to you that you will dump your position much earlier then $ 28..it's different story that you don't tell board that you did that...learning from last mistake...

    Not bashing just showing you what I have been telling you that your cycles are reversed...and anyone can prove right if he has 6 months window...

    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I sold UVXY in July when it simply became clear that the large cycle was not going to start at that time. I have been waiting for the next negative cycle to reload.

      Once I buy I would consider taking some profit around $14-15 because there is some resistance there. I would buy again on a dip for the next push higher.

      Delete
    2. Stockboom,

      re:1st paragraph->it is correct that SC said he was in for long haul of $28 and would not sell. His cycles then saw a change so he decided to sell at a loss to try again in future which presumably will be next week.
      The clarity of communication for trading purposes during this time was not great for the readers but ok.

      re:2nd paragraph->I think SC did see the change in cycle and decided to get out at a loss instead of staying the course until $28. I agree this short term adjustment was unusual but it's SC's trading account so he can do what he wants with it.
      You bring up a good point that it is now questionable whether a buy at $5.50 can truly zoom up to $28 before mid-September based on the results from last month. I guess we'll find out come mid-September whether the cycles are reversed or not.

      Delete
    3. I decided to sell UVXY in July due to the timing issue, and it was the right move because obviously I can buy it cheaper now. I could have also just kept it, but I am better off now, and in a great position to profit into mid Sept.

      Delete
  37. SC, have you taken a position in UVXY yet. thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, I will likely wait for Monday.

      Delete
    2. Thanks...do you see this move playing out until the 8-9?

      Delete
    3. I doubt much upside after Monday.

      Delete
    4. SC,
      A UVXY chart that shows the rise up to 14-15, pullback, rise to $28, pullback, rise to $40 over time would be helpful for your readers. Tks in advance.

      Delete
    5. I will but want to wait for a bottom to show that.

      Delete
  38. SC, interesting that UVXY is holding up as this damn market still trying to move higher.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If VIX stays where it is at 16.27 then I am pretty sure the UVXY will breakdown below 6.38 at the close accordingly.

      Delete
    2. UVXY was leading the market yesterday into the close, so market is catching up now imo.

      Delete
    3. huh? You always said that UVXY lags the market...

      Delete
    4. More properly VIX gave the tell yesterday. Red VIX yesterday and red market.

      Delete
  39. The strong move in oil today suggests more upside next week for SPX. A lot of momentum.

    ReplyDelete
  40. SC, use the fib time tool and connect the high and low of the year (SPX)....any significance to you or do you think there is still more time? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think that timing caught the low yesterday. Still some more time. Thanks.

      Delete
  41. SC, do you see SPX top on Monday or are you expecting UVXY will bottom out before SPX top and that's why you will be buying UVXY on Monday?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Will size it up on Monday, and fine tune.

      Delete
  42. DOW

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi joe,
      it would be helpful if there was some commentary associated with your charts.....

      Delete
    2. joed is showing CIT's. No forecast, no promised crashes on surges just critical support/resistance lines and timing windows.

      Delete
    3. check out his trade log to see what kind of results his method is producing.

      Delete
  43. Many analysts are calling for new highs prior to the election...be careful...

    ReplyDelete
  44. SC, the cycle is mixed again next week?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Positive on Monday, but it turns mixed after that. I think upside early in the week and then the mixed cycles suggest sideways range for much of the week.

      Delete
  45. SC, where do you see first resistance for HVU?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. $14-15 for UVXY is equivalent to $40 area.

      Delete
  46. SC, UVXY 14-15 by late August?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is the first area of resistance. I expect it to dip there, higher low, and continue higher. That is the first spot I would even consider taking profits. It is early to confirm dates for certain targets, but I can say that starting next week into late August looks weak, and then also in mid Sept very weak.

      So there is more than a month of negative cycles approaching.

      Delete
    2. Hi,
      The UVXY pop was originally supposed to occur in July then it was pushed back a month or so. In the mean time, UVXY popped 50% down instead of up until now.

      Before yet more capital is potentially risked on this play, what trigger(s) should we be looking for so that we can have greater confidence that it will actually occur this time in August? Tks in advance.

      Delete
    3. just a suggestion, but if possible, I think a graph or two showing why the UVXY should be bottoming around this area, that would help us gain more confidence in addition to knowing the big negative timing cycles is about to happen.

      Delete
    4. We already saw the "initial spike" in my pattern. That was the initial warning that timing is getting close. Now, waiting for the bottom next week. The next event to watch for is a gradually rising trend in UVXY. The pattern shows that trend accelerating to the upside.

      So this is the sequence of events to watch.

      Delete
    5. I have charts that are ready. Will do.

      Delete
    6. Thanks, SC. The scale of this coming negative cycle, do you see similar to July/Aug 2011 or May/June 2012?

      Delete
    7. There are several legs down that comprise this large negative cycle in my analysis. The entire move is anticipated to be slightly less severe than the 2008 period. However, there are 3 legs down and so in my analysis I will break it down into separate moves.

      Delete
  47. When you are wrong just own up to it. No need to delete posts so others will not see. It shows the true character of a person.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Hi SC. Love your work. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. platy, which part of SC's do you love?

      Delete
    2. I have been following for several weeks, and IMO the calls have been great. I probably missed something that happened before. But if people don't like the blog, why do they keep coming back? I don't get it.

      Delete
  49. SC,
    I wanted to know if/how you were taking into consideration contengo into your analysis. For example:
    Jun 20 VIX=17.24 --> UVXY=11.05
    Aug 2 VIX=17.57 --> UVXY=6.94

    I understand that UVXY doesn't track directly VIX but it does seam to show that UVXY has lost around 37% in value since mid june due to contengo.
    For this reason, would your target of 28$ for UVXY you had in June not be more like 17$-18$ today?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is why UVXY is sensitive to timing. For sure it is an important consideration. I have increased my target to $40.

      The reason is that the market is approaching a much larger negative cycle. Your line of thinking is correct. It's just that the outlook for the market is more severe due to the larger negative cycle, and that means my outlook for VIX has dramatically increased also. At the end of the large negative cycle the VIX target is 63.

      Delete
  50. UVXY and VXX are derivatives of first and second month Vix futures as most of us know. Both August and September Vix futures closed just below their 20 period bb's today. I bought some VXX after hours tonight. Should see at least a small pop in Vix futures products in the next few days.

    ReplyDelete