Finding the edge in analyzing unique market Cycles.
SC, so assuming the conclusion that the equal time cycle holds, we should expect an equal progressive and regressive order, correct? I know that cycles are defined with time as the leading variable but could we model the 'cycle' in terms of price delta?
SC has been incorrect more than correct. He deletes lots of negative posts so be aware. He buys UVXY for supposedly for long term, but the prospectus mentioned the security is for short term trading only.
June 1Unknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":"LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."
Because this time cycle is obvious now after several sizeable turns, it probably won't amount to as much of a move.
DOes this change your targets for UVXY?
Short term target is around $5.85. Probably dip there, then move to mid $6.Longer term targets are the same.
Targets for UVXY are 5.3 & 5If it violates 5 then most likely next target after that is 4.In my opinion.
Turn date today, and my SPX cycle is quite negative on Monday. VIX has a higher low, and UVXY holding well also. I'll look to take profit Mon/Tues.
Why are you so skittish to hold the position, or at least go in/out with 1/2 instead of the full position?I don't understand how you are so patient, and then so inclined to take very minor profits compared to the overall objective?
I think we dip into Aug 21 then rally back up Aug 24-27...is this something you see as well SC?
My plan is to trade in tune with both my short term cycles and the larger picture for UVXY. I believe UVXY has started this gradual trend, and I think it will rattle up and down 3-4 times for $1 on average each time during the gradual rise. So add that up and that is $4 of movement. The big picture is starting, and I will hold when the gradual rise phase is finishing and the acceleration phase is starting for much higher levels on UVXY. The cycles will tell when to do this.
Hi BickyI think SC mention before he would rather get out and in during this phase to get into a better position for the bigger picture. Since it a slow rise, he probably think it will come up and down for the first little while before the final big up. Where he will try to get in a good sizes and position for it. As far as I understand right now. But yes, dont know why he just doesnt do smaller position and just build it up, like buy the dip and wait for the bigger picture to unfold. If he truly believe in it will happen. That way it hard to miss the sudden gain. Thanks!
Thanks SC/Invest.I sold out earlier in the weak for a measly 1% gain on the +10% day to take my profits when I could (instead of losses).I think you are right, might be a spike today/Monday, but we will probably match YTD highs, or spike over them to get the shorts to cover -- will be the optimal time to slowly build a new position next week.-Bicky
Dip into 20th-21st, then only small rally, then larger drop late Aug.UnknownAugust 17, 2012 8:09 AM"I think we dip into Aug 21 then rally back up Aug 24-27...is this something you see as well SC?"
nice one SC
SC your posts are becoming embarrassing at best...July then August...then September ....then taking .50 cents profits on UVXY as appose to the "big move" you were going to hold for....Your Cycles and Forks are all out of whack...You keep flip flopping on your words...and keep changing the story....Eventually you will be right in 2014 at this rate....By then these volatile ETF's will have lost another 50% and almost everyone would have been sold out a huge loss....Honestly do you have any credibility left ??? What happened to weak August ?? SP is about to make new highs....do us all a favor and ADMIT YOU WERE WRONG ! (stop deleting my posts)
It's a free site, and free opinions are worth the amount you pay for them. At best, SC is a rank amateur with zero knowledge of how UVXY functions, yet trying to pass as a seasoned professional...at worst?
I really can't understand why people who don't like this site keep coming back. If you don't like it the solution is so easy!
Yes, it has taken longer than I thought and that is ok. However UVXY is starting the gradual rise phase now. The big picture is going to play out, and patience is the key. Watch and see how this plays out. My plan is to trade in tune with both my short term cycles and the larger picture for UVXY. I believe UVXY has started this gradual trend, and I think it will rattle up and down 3-4 times for $1 on average each time during the gradual rise. So add that up and that is $4 of movement. The big picture is starting, and I will hold when the gradual rise phase is finishing and the acceleration phase is starting for much higher levels on UVXY. The cycles will tell when the gradual phase is nearing completion.
SC, are your targets still the same for UVXY?
Short term target is around $5.85. Small dip there, then move to mid $6.Longer term targets are the same.
when do you think that short term target will be reached? 21/22?
Mon/Tues high $5 imo.
Hi SCdumb question, what happen after mid $6?feel there is gap between this mid $6 and the longer term targets you mentioned here.Thanks!
So for UVXY $5.85 or so early next week, small dip, then mid $6 max around $6.80.After that I see it dipping again. All of this is the gradual rise in my big pattern. Then the longer term targets come into play.
1st indiactor JPM is moviing lower...
2nd indicator USD is up...
Since the long term target has already been pushed back by 2-3 months already....is it being now pushed to January 2013 ? (The long term are of course the same, because there is no time frame)You still have not admitted that you were wrong when you suggested UVXY at $9 had little downside left...then you cut your losses and changed your tune...TO BE CREDIBLE YOU HAVE TO MAN UP
Of course I was wrong in the sense that it was too early. That is why I sold at higher levels weeks ago. I just bought UVXY again last week. The timing looks good.
UVXY at $28 since the big cycles are still the same according to you ...When you do you now see it reaching $28 ? date? (Most people who got in at $9 are not interested in selling at mid $6's)
Those charts are coming.
Guys my question to you - visitors of SC's blog. Why do you keep coming back? Why do you still value what he has to say after so many flip flops?Is it that statistically you think he will be right one day, wait long enough...?
UVXY may test 5$ boys...get ready to be stop out lol
SC,Perhaps your interpretation of strong support at low 5's is not as strong as we think. I am rooting for you but I have to say, the complexity of your cycles does not seem to be very accurate from what I can tell over the last few months that I started following this blog.Again, I hope it turns around but faith in these cycles is a poor man's journey to date.Again not trying to be negative, just realistic.
There is lots of support here. Watch it snap back up from this level.
I hope so SC as I believe your intentions are good.We just need some good strong wins here with UVXY so everyone can learn from this strenuous ride.Thanks.
This lunch hour has been brutal for the VIX proper ($13.34 -6.65%). Although UVXY has been beaten up pretty good, I'm just glad UVXY had not followed the %'age losses that VIX is sustaining X 2. Not yet anyways.
HVU is becoming more of a junk as time goes back, this 10 split, before that, looking at current price is like $1.30. Wow, penny stock soon lol if not for the split.
I bought UVXY at 12 when SC mentioned there was little room for downside there. Hopefully I can sell at 28 in September.
you be lucky if it hit 10$ right now at this current price, that is a double almost. How many things double that quick in less than a month? we have election coming. You really think the FED will let the market crash before the election? Hence SC is look to get out around high 5 to 6. And re-enter later dates. - my 2 cents.
Didn't the market crash in 2008 before the election?
you think they will let that happen again? then place your bet on it.Obama wants a second term...Bush didnt...
Well InvestBB, the Fed just might want to let the market crash before the election. With Paul Ryan and his TEA Party affiliates wanting to resurrect the privatization of Social Security, what could be better than a little volatility to shake up old memories from 2008 for why that's a bad idea. And Mitt has said he'll replace Bernanke if he's elected, so Ben's in a no-win situation either way.
Don't underestimate the alliance between Ben, big banks and the democrats. The market crashed in 2008 because they made it crash. It worked to their political advantage. They'll prop this up through the election this year because it's their only hope for a reelection. Money doesn't mean anything to the dems and that's how they get votes and gain power. Tough decisions and wise decisions are more a republican thing but these types of decisions are often unpopular and will often end up hurting their career. We'll see what happens but the big banks are apparently satisfied with whatever allowance Uncle Ben gives them.
spx diamond formation http://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/
looks like you have called the 1375 should be the final high, and then the olympics high, and now the 1987 type of crash.
should be some selling last hour...imo
There is no correlation between SP-500 and UVXY, or I should say the Rsq is at a level nobody would use it. So not sure why SC uses them side by side and better yet post a 5 minute chart and discussing cycles in time frames larger then 5 minutes is also questionable. Not sure why he does not use what UVXY and other instruments that try and track VIX use as a mythology within their prospectus.
That is a fair question. That is not my intention as I chart them both independantly. Many prefer to trade the S&P, and others trade VIX related etfs.
SC using a 5 minute chart to discuss time cycles days out? Your lucky your following are beginners and don't know any better.
The point of the UVXY chart is to show support resistance on a short term basis.
SC you should not be using a UVXY chart period. You use what it tracks, but I don't think you grasp that, because you plot a UVXY chart. Time is a constant on the charts, if your going to use a 5 min chart, then display a true 5 min chart within a days range, because that's all a 5 min chart is good for, certainly not for 8 days in advance. You want to project cycles out in a time period of days you use a daily chart. But it will leave you at the alter at times, so best just use what it try's to track the VIX with.
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INTERNAL TECH DATA = SELLARMS 5 = 87-- UNDER 100 = SELLTrin 5 = 435-- under 500 = sellTRIn10 = 795--- UNDER 1000 = SELLARMS 20 = 89.5---under 100 = SELLOpen 10 trin = 80 --under 90 = MAJOR SELLJaywiz
guys, AAA, thank me later. Allana Potash is making a big move.
Valid point 35Trader..great catch.First we should focus on VIX chart not UVXY and second should use daily or weekly chart for better decisions.Thanks
Stockboom and I assume its the one I know. VIX futures is what SC should be displaying, VIX has value also but a little hard to explain here in words. Toss in the UVXY also if he likes as I know people get stuck on using cancer full contango charts LOL at least they can see if the resistance and supports are aligned between all the charts. But its time consuming for SC.
SC just read testy99 and still thinking $28 is possible and you will understand the level of your following. SC, I have to give you credit for putting yourself out there, but you need to be much more descriptive to the beginners, and explain the crushing affect of contango in this product, actually the worst contango out there are the products try to follow the VIX using futures. I think you should "weekly" evaluate a potential high for the next 30 days after seeing contango strip you and this way people would know $28 is bye bye in the review mirror.You have your hands full reading some of these guys comments like Unknown LOL.
If you are worried about contango then you are assuming the VIX will not rise, and in my analysis that is nonsense.
SC look at a UVXY chart and its that shape why? and you will not see $28 again why? I personally think you don't have clue or perhaps the understanding of destruction high contango products have.
Of course I am aware of this. Contango is an issue only if one assumes that the VIX will not rise. This is not the assumption to make in the market going forward.
Let me re-phrase this:SC UVXY does not move because of the VIX, it moves by the change in VIX futures and is a big difference, perhaps learn the product first.
Yes, I realize that.
Next targets for UVXY if cross below 5 are 4.3 then 4, in my opinion.
SC of course the VIX will go up and down in the future, I did not say it won't, but if you think $28 is possible, you don't understand the product or how it works.
I understand just fine.
SC if do, then why do let your following still live with the dream $28 could be seen, put the fire out once and for all.http://www.proshares.com/funds/uvxy_daily_holdings.htmlPerhaps plot VIXU2 chart beside your UVXY, just a suggestion.
Let's not bicker about the $28 forecast just yet....we first need UVXY to start moving in a positive trend based on positive changes in the VIX. Then we can worry about how high UVXY can actually go.Personally, I can't see UVXY reaching $28 by mid-September, but I am more than willing to eat crow (so to speak) if it does. :)
you never know, maybe the mayan's prediction of the end of the world on Dec 21st 2012 is a global stock crash :DDD
I always thought that was just when their calendar ended based on some Mayan thinking that was far enough into the future. Now 1,000's of years later, everyone else is interpreting why it ended there.It's like saying the computer people only put 2 digits to represent the year before year 2000 because the world would end after that. A bit silly if you ask me.Having said all that, the world seems to be going through significant changes over the next few years.
35Trader,Yes same Stockboom you know; SC have been calling UVXY to rise since june, so I told him after 3 months wait, even if it goes to $28; I would not say that you made great call...it may even go to $50 so what?SC,I think 35Trader joined to this board is blessing for many and he is master in chart reading...FYI
A great call is when we all make money within the time frame forecasted.A good call is when we make money close to the forecasted timeframe give or take 10%. A lucky call is making money after 10% of the forecasted timeframe. I think we are in the potential lucky stage now, but I am happy to be lucky as long as it happens soon. :)
I can give credit to SC even if he picked bottom or lets say +-5% of bottom; and if it do not reach to $ 28..atleast his call do not make people loose shirt..but here he calls for bottom at 12 and then 9 and then 6 but still no bottom in sight..so what's the benefit to his followers? and how one can give him credit? either you call bottom and take credit or just provide your target and don't say anything about when to buy and where to buy...common...
SC,If you ever watched the movie Jerry McGuire, I think the blog followers want you to "show them a real UVXY bottom" or "show them how to make money" through education. :)This all assumes that cycles really do work for stock trading.
Will show how it unfolds every step of the way through the phases.
SC,1/ If UVXY fell as low as $4.95 but closed at $5.02 today, is that considered a fail of your low 5's strong support comment or does the strong support of low 5's still true?2/Did we survive the storm and can we expect UVXY to go higher and not lower than these levels starting on Monday?I'm not a true technician (yet) and it seems like different technicians have different opinions of intraday prices versus closing prices. Tks in advance.
Yes very strong support, and set to rise next week.
Also, today was the turn day for SPX as shown in the timing cycle above, and the negative cycle starts again Monday.
Could you also show us how you have been wrong since June ?? We need to be educated as to what consummates a winning trade....
STOP YOUR WHINING MAN. LOOK IN THE MIRROR AND SAY TO YOURSELF: I MADE THE MISTAKE.Stop blaming SC if you are down.Keep it small.Add slowly.Know when to stop out.And most importantly, rule #4: ACCEPT RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR TRADES.Use this as a learning experience to always do your own due diligence. Blindly following people is a great way to lose money. Once again, please stop making yourself look like an idiot by coming on a FREE message board and trying to blame SC for YOUR mistake. Have a good weekend all -- I'll look to establish a position early next week.-Bicky
warning, look at VIX futures on Mar 15. It dropped doen to 16.12 which was a bottom & looked very promissing. On Mon, Mar 18, the next month started to track on the 1 month futures & jumped up to almost 22. UVXY though of course was already tracking that month & did not go up & unfortunately, the VIX futures proceeded to go down to a low of 15.57 on Mar 25, bringing UVXY down with it by 2X.the reason I bring this up, is next week the futures start tracking Sep. which is much higher than Aug. UVXY is tracking Sep & the futures could easily move down to the 15's again before moving up
I'm going to post the chart on the weekend for how I see UVXY playing out until end of Aug.
SC, you mentioned that Aug especially mid Aug would be very negative. I am short too and painful to watch as the market continue to try making new highs. Time is running out in Aug and you see next week is mixed too, so do you see this severe negative cycle being postponed?
It is best to explain it with the charts which are coming. The bears will do well this month, but do not expect anything huge yet. That is coming in due course.
I think next week might look great for the short. I just made a strong short bet for next week too. My indicator went red and so did some of my collegues'. Indicator is based on a mode of standard deviation delta and is about 74% accurate.
Yes, in my work the next week and a half is good for the bears.
Hi,Where do we believe the next 1.5 weeks will take UVXY up to during this positive time for the bears? ie. $6.50, $7.50?I'm sure the upcoming charts will give us an idea but it's hard to see the price points in the charts clearly, thus my question.Tks in advance.
I'll have specific targets and timing shown on the charts.
some crazy chart:http://i48.tinypic.com/fjq6o8.jpg
That's PUG...he's a dedicated perma-bull, ans has been wiped many a time because of it.
a melt up is very possible to the 1500 level...take a look at the monthly chart, it seems it is repeating itself to the upside. i'd be careful...
It seems this blog is able to attract great trading minds....now if we can only get them to agree on their forecasts :)
SC whe you started trading vix (uvxy) is when you began looking like a fool... when you go back to the indexes and metals you will begin to resemble a trader again..http://finance.yahoo.com/news/double-whammy-volatilty-etfs-falling-152051242.htmlread this
I hear you. No question these VIX etfs are a tricky beast to tame. The reason is simple. Not only is the price important but time also. Having said that the surprises on these are about to be the good kind again. Give it a chance, keep an open mind and let it play out. I'm going to follow through on this trade until complete. Charts are coming, and yes, the beast can be tamed. The market has shown it's hand....
Keep up the good work, all the best! I have a position since yesterday and I am wondering to close it on Tuesday to avoid contango (due to rebalance) negatively affecting uvxy. Or close it on Wednesday if cycles are negative on that day. If possible, let me know your thoughts.
joed, whats your take on the precious metals.thanks
phantomMonths ago I talked of the master cycle being choppy up and my cycle chart is posted. My work shows this market moving up after this coming bottom but for the larger move it still has a couple months before it starts with nice swings prior to it! Best, joed
SC, as you do not talk so much about your precious metals analysis, I just wanted to say that according to my model, precious metals should rise this week.Best
According to a lead analyst, mutual fund cash levels are at the lowest in recorded history, quarterly outflows have been in the 2-4 Billion range recently, and corporate insiders are selling big...all as the market continues up. Either you believe this is sustainable or you don't, and bet accordingly.
Hope Monday will be 'quite negative" as you mentioned, not another gap up.
What do we think will happen on Wednesday when the VIX options expire?Are we still expecting next week to be a strong negative week with a blip up on Wednesday due to the expiry?We all look forward to better UVXY increases in the coming days/weeks....I just hope it actually happens this time.
I am not saying UVXY won't go to $4, in fact if UVXY violates $5 then next targets are $4.3 and $4.However, VIX is about to enter a bottoming periods that I think will last into early next year, within this bottoming period there will be occasional small spikes, but nothing explosive until this bottoming period is over (see chart on the blog link under my handler).In my opinion.
That's not a triple top. Back out to 10 years and you have what will be a triple top when the S&P gets to around 1600.
I was planning to have an update out yesterday, but had computer issues so will have that out today.Friday was the turn day in the timing cycle, and the cycle analysis turns negative for SPX today. It is negative for the next week and a half.
Thanks for the update...we look forward to the new charts...
SC, do you think we will take out last weeks high on the SPX or are we starting our descent?Also, do you still plan to exit your UVXY position this week?Thanks
For the next week and a half SPX is likely to trend gradually lower imo.Next week will likely take profit for UVXY in the $6's. Chart is coming.
Hi Joedcan you please show us something of what a chart like forecasting on this move that you are looking at going down into November for the market? Kind of like how ZZ show his forecast going into September?Thanks!
IndeedJoed said top in AugZZ said top in Sep 25There is one month left
InvestbbNo………it would not be fair to the ppl that are associated with me!Although the info that has been posted should be more than enoughfor a trader to so his work and use it to add to his decision process.On another note my comments on the election cycle was not directedat anyone on this site but rather in general to the public that looksfor the rally blindly each year. I have nothing but respect for anyone who does their own work. Best to all, joed
Nice Read on VIXhttp://tradersvideoplaybook.com/copper-prices-signaling-a-top-in-the-sp500/Friday’s weekly close for the VIX was the lowest in 2012 and ultimately one of the lowest closing price levels in several years. While the VIX is trading at a major intermediate low, there remains a lower support level going back to late 2006 and the early part of 2007 around the 10 price level.The perma-bulls would argue that we could see those 2006 – 2007 lows tested, but based on September monthly VIX options the option market seemingly is arguing that we are approaching an intermediate low in the Volatility Index.
SC,Cant believe you removed my two post which was informative and useful! Did you delete my post where I mentioned that, VIX futures and UVXY and HVU are trading on Sept. contract which is higher $ 3 then VIX friday close? that means if gap filled, you looking at 20% price drop in VIX and 40% drop on both UVXY and HVU...Are you having this BB for helping people or screwing them? I don't see any other reason you deleted those post other then boosting your ego...Be careful...guys...SC is ready to sacrifise you guys for his personal glory!...ho ho ho...can't believe this...
Well actually you put those comments on the August 14th post for some reason, not the most current post. I didn't remove anything.
No problem. Here they are:StockboomAugust 20, 2012 6:10 AM"VIX futures are already trading on sept month...huge $ 3 gap up...."StockboomAugust 20, 2012 6:23 AM"VIX futures are up more then $3 to $ 18.50 but bad news and really bad news for UVXY and HVU as they have potential to go much lower here....This is getting scary day by day...."
New chart is up.