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Monday, August 27, 2012

UVXY - Spike This Week

Notice that the confluence of fork supports was reached today.  In continuation of the short term plan, UVXY could spike sharply this week to test the area of the upper orange fork resistance. 

This week, the cycle analysis for SPX is quite negative.  September charts will be coming shortly, and an outline of September cycles.  

30min Chart

79 comments:

  1. The chart shows why $5.05 was mentioned as an interesting downside target on Friday.

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    1. It was a magnet with all the forks lining up at that level.

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    2. Very interesting...i was able to buy some HVU when UVXY hit 5.10 or so...thanks for the call!

      Will be looking to exit all your position when this weeks spike occurs?

      My thinking is that due to light holiday volume this week there may be limited downside, however, when the institutional traders are back next week we will get some singnificant selling...thoughts?

      Do you think exiting may be too risky for missing big moves down?

      China taking a beating already...

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    3. Yes, I am planning to unload all on a spike as I think it will settle down afterwards again. Agree that Sept should be more active, but we are still in a whipsaw phase.

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    4. VIX up, and tredning higher over last week.

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  2. vix up uvxy down..... even when your right your wrong

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  3. UVXY has made a higher high and a higher low...some positives for this...

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  4. vix was in 13's now almost 16 and uvxy near low...

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  5. VIX up with SPX today, usually a sign of weakness coming.

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  6. Mick,

    If you want help post your email and I will contact you and help you via email.

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  7. 35,whats yor max target for uvxy this year?thanks

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  8. vix up 7% ... uvxy DOWN... POS

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    1. It does not track the daily VIX for starters, post a email address and I can help you.

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    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  9. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPVXSP:IND
    Mick , this is the index under UVXY & TVIX.
    VIX CASH is another story......

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  10. SC, what is your downside target for the SPX this year?

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  11. I have a target coming for SPX this year, but I want to show that with the charts and analysis. Coming soon.

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    1. thanks, what is your max target (or max range) for UVXY & HVU this year?

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  12. Even with Apple, couldn't keep SPX afloat today.

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    1. Apple's on the nasdaq and that finished in the green...

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  13. SC:

    At what point would your forecast be invalidated? A break of last week's low?

    Just curious how you decide, based on your cycles, that they might be wrong?

    No, I am not hating -- I am long from $5.13 on Friday.

    My personal strategy for UVXY has been getting in/out based on 30 minute bollinger band touches with a (50,2) setting. I haven't been profitable with UVXY until I tried this strategy. Take a look for yourself. Based on those settings the upper band is around ~$5.80, which coincides with your level of resistance above and last week's high.

    I will probably sell at $5.80 based on those factors; however, I hope your $6s come true. I might also take a gain if we get a pop in the morning tomorrow.

    Play the higher probability setups.
    Keep it small.
    Add slowly.
    Know your stops.
    Trade YOUR plan.

    Cheers to all and especially SC who has the balls to do what he does. Well done.

    Bicky

    -Bicky

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    1. In terms of the short term forecast, yes, I think that last week's low should hold this week.

      This should be an interesting week as many cycles are bearish. Therefore, high probability.

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  14. See the Inverse H&S on the hourly starting on 8/13 (sh), 8/21 (h) and 8/27 shoulder? You see it on the daily but not so pronounced.Target would be 6.4 to 6.6?

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    1. Yes, the inverse H&S pattern looks good as well.

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  15. SC, is next week positive in your work? Do you think the SPX has a chance to make new highs? Thanks

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    1. Mixed for SPX next week. I have an update coming for Sept, and yes, there are some positive spots as well. Sept has some very positive and very negative spots.

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    2. I have a Sept plan coming with cycles and timing.

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  16. August was suppose to be very negative yet we are still close to the 52k low in UVXY and 10-12 points off the highs in SP 500....I can't imaging what the "positive spots" will mean in September

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  17. guess your bearish calls for August were not correct..so its September now? one of these months it will fall..maybe January ?

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  18. August has been a relatively quiet month, and the negative cycles were muted, but they did work. Sept is setting up to be more volatile.

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  19. SC what is your definition of "cycle's working" ?

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    1. Nothing exciting for sure, but SPX fell during the negative cycle 30 points this month. The big moves are coming soon enough. We're just bouncing around at the top here.

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    2. This week is the most negative of August so still more for SPX to fall also imo.

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  20. Reverse split 1-10 UVXY announced.
    I know technically it does not change anything but somehow reverse splits never end up being a good thing.

    http://pymnts.com/news/businesswire-feed/2012/august/28/proshares-announces-etf-reverse-share-split-20120828005499/

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  21. Testy, doesn't make a difference...only psychologically. Individual stocks; now that's a different matter.

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  22. Proprietary Indicator has current trend resistance on VIX/U2 at 19.15 if this were to break and close above today EOD it would signal the current down trend has reversed.

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  23. Notice how there's not much difference in uvxy price from VIX lows in 13's and at 16.92...gap fill attempt to 17.57 will brin it to 5.50 now. This vehicle is dead.

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    1. VIX is challenging the trendline from early June, and the 50 dma at $16.94.

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    2. Sure did SC, and uvxy is doing squat.

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    3. $6's still looks good, wait until VIX breaks out.

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    4. Your chart points to end of this week for $6's. Is this start of a trend or a flash/retrace?

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    5. Just a short term retrace imo.

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  24. Last time UVXY split it sure slid back down fast. I know the market helped that, but i agree. Never seems like a good thing.

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    1. Mike, it has nothing to do with the split. If markets surge from here, then yes, uvxy will appear to slide after the reverse split.

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    2. In terms of performance of tracking an index I have not seen effects from reverse splits.

      I know what you mean though, and it seems that way most of the time. However, reverse splits occur during downtrends so it would have higher odds of falling further just because of that fact.

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    3. In case you hadn't noticed SC, uvxy has been in a downtrend since its inception.

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    4. Yes true but inception was Oct 2011.

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  25. SILVER



    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  26. SC

    IS THIS THE END OF THE BULL MARKET ?

    www.markethighsandlows.wordpress.com

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    Replies
    1. for $5.00 it must be some great info.. (lame)

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    2. Scotty:Can you just tell us your answer?

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  27. SC, what is your short term target for HVU? Thanks

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  28. SC, seriously, another month coming to an end and looking at this, I don't think the negative cycles really working.

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    1. negative cycles are working even if the SPX only drops 0.01 point. As long as it's not green, it's negative. Don't quibble over how much the drop is. Look at the red or green.

      Perhaps you actually think this blog is gonna make you real money?

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  29. Remember I said that the price should start to rise gradually at first. That is occurring this month. The green short term targets are being hit. The short term cycles are working. The large negative SPX cycle is due soon, and the short term cycles are being used to time the start of the large cycle.

    It is not exciting right now, but the bigger picture is unfolding just fine.

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  30. SC, are you waiting for time or price to sell your UVXY? also when or what price are you looking to unload and when or what price are you looking to reload. Thanks

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    1. Still looking for a pop over $6 soon, then I do think it'll cool off again in early Sept.

      The details are coming in my Sept update.

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  31. It seems that "Clueless" message from Anthony (Change-in-trend blog) has back fired on him. He went long SPX last Friday and now his members have lost money everyday.

    SC, it seems you're one of the more professional bloogers, however i think a comment on his site advising him of his current poor call is in order..

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    1. really? everyone makes bad calls. He is expecting a change in trend shortly. He issed this one but is pretty good overall.

      not sure why you would want to send a negative comment to his blog. This does not help at all.

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    2. Unknown: you are a liar, you can buy spy from 1398 to 1412 last Friday, and this Monday you can sell from 1410 t0 1415, also you can sell the highest 1412 on Tuesday.

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    3. Anthony's the one that was being unprofessional with his comments...

      Steven you keep aiming for less than 1% gains you'll become a thousandaire in no time...lol

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    4. If you took my call you would be slightly under to flat coming into a CIT date moving upwards with a stop below the prior CIT date. Steven is correct in what he says. I always understood the downside risk due to the geometrics of the trade therefore taking the trade into an expected high in 29/30 August was the correct one, no it is a low ill just wait for the next high to exit at a profit.

      Unknown if you are so far under the water on a trade its because you are highly leveraged, no one to blame but yourself.

      Rgds
      Anthony

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  32. $VIX and $VXO 50 DMA touch...Bye to UVXY, should head lower promptly.

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  33. it is something to watch vix move up, spx down...and uvxy down. No, no efforts to suppress the most speculative and risky etf's out there that people were apparently buying lots of yesterday.

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    1. UVXY is doing EXACTLY what it's supposed to do. It's mirrored twice the daily move in the short-term VIX futures index.

      UVXY isn't meant to, and doesn't, mirror daily moves in VIX. This has been explained ad nauseam on this board and others.

      It can happen that an ETF's market price decouples from its NAV - as happened with TVIX a few months ago - but that isn't currently the case with UVXY.

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  34. SC, is tomorrow and the next day still negative in your work, thanks.

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    1. Yes, tomorrow and Fri are negative. Today is the only positive day this week.

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    2. Are you looking to exit all your UVXY this Friday or is next week negative as well?

      My thinking is that we may get a rally into the end of the week to encourage people to spend over the long weekend.

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    3. I'll be looking to exit once it pops over $6. It could be possible that it takes into next week.

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  35. we will take out six this week...are we still looking at the 6.40 area for exit.

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    1. Looked quite solid today again. In that area still looks good give or take. I also think it will cool off again afterwards...

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    2. Goodmorning SC
      will you be buying XIV after you sell UVXY?

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    3. Good morning. Yes, I'll be interested in XIV next week.

      New chart is up.

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  36. bicky,

    Looks like the 50-2 BB limit is 5.71...Looks like we may touch that this am...you selling?

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