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Wednesday, August 8, 2012

$SPX - Resistance Reached

Price reached the yellow fork resistance.  The cycle analysis does look a little weak today and tomorrow, with another positive spot Friday, Aug 10th perhaps extending to the 13th at the latest.  After some settling now, SPX may attempt another final push late this week.  It may have already topped, or it may manage a slight higher high still. 
However, the cycle analysis turns negative early next week, and continues to weaken into late August.  As well, there are very negative spots in mid-September.  Therefore, a high is due, and then the next low mid-September.  A downtrend for over a month is expected with the decline gradual at first, then accelerating lower.

30min Chart















15min Chart

203 comments:

  1. does your crystal ball take into account geo political events, ECB, Fed, Europe defaults, jobs numbers, black swans, etc etc .... for anyone to think a magical cycle system count predict the future is hilarious

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. actually the cycles predict the news, whether it will be good/bad and the degree...amatuers don't realize this...when news is release it is too late to take the position...

      Delete
  2. Do you have a price level/time window which if breached will invalidate your analysis?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Fwiw..Im using 1410ish..IMO this is measured move for a wave 5 end on sp.. thoughts welcome

      Delete
    2. The cycle turns negative early next week.

      Delete
  3. SC, are you still at a 65% position?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, still the same. May wait a few days.

      Delete
    2. Hi SC

      can you please let us know what you mean by wait a few days here. Is there something you looking for like more drop in the market or better entry of UVXY, etc?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    3. I think the market could drop a little today/tomorrow, but not expecting much.

      Delete
  4. I think the market is going to drop this afternoon.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Nice close...UVXY is nothing but a tool for manipulators to steal from wide eyed greed heads who think they're going to make a quick killing.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I do believe shorts are cooked, by design. This whole sideways *topping* mess was nothing but a lure; now we can proceed much higher into elections. Sorry.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I've been screwed. Been averaging down hoping for a pop but that doesn't seem like it'll happen. SC made some good calls in the past but has been dead wrong for the past two months. UVXY from 20 to 5 in just two months and this is while a waterfall decline for the S&P was predicted. I'm thinking now this is all bs and it will never go up. You can't apply cycles and timing to this type of investment vehicle.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A little more patience. This month's major turn was predicted from a year ago.
      http://planetforecaster.blogspot.com/2012/07/major-turn-august-2012-jupiter-mars.html
      We'll get there very soon.

      Delete
    2. It's not very useful if all it says is there will be a major turn on X date but does not indicate which direction the turn will occur. It can either turn significantly higher or lower from current levels.

      Delete
    3. I feel for you Unknown. No system is perfect although the call of a few months ago was definitely on the wrong side. Only time will tell if the latest call will significantly come to fruition before mid-September.
      If it doesn't then you have your answer about the usefulness of cyclical analysis.

      Delete
    4. Note: My 8:02 comment above was meat for platy. Thanks.

      Delete
    5. How long is it going to take people to realize none of these timing models work with a market run by intervention? The only model that should be looked at is *when and what amount* central banks infuse money into the system. Look at China soar on low growth. Their market is now hooked on intervention.

      Delete
    6. With the market heading up into the turn date, it is obvious that the turn will be down.

      Delete
    7. not so Platy. even if it was to trigger a turn, it could simply be an acceleration point.

      Delete
    8. That's possible but not likely. Still, you don't think that the ability to pinpoint major turn dates months in advance (even decades) is useful? You're not even interested that the CAUSE of turns is planetary?

      Delete
  8. ZZ are you buying some puts (because 9-8) or are you waiting with your longs till 25-9 ??

    Thanks for your answer

    Klaas

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Klass,

      I'm not 100% sure about the Aug 9th cycle peak because the 4th year Presidential cycle for August is normally bullish. My plan is to just watch this one and see if we can get a buy towards the end of August.

      Delete
    2. Thanks ZigZag
      I bought at this point some puts.
      Your year prediction is incredible !!!

      Is this all Gann or other things too ?
      but ....don't answer this question because you are at your best when you don't use many words :)

      Delete
    3. I don't know much about Gann. It's mainly time symmetry using certain high and lows.

      Delete
  9. Research and analyze current market trends, market potential, competitors, etc are the responsibilities of a market manager.


    Market Analysis

    ReplyDelete
  10. UVXY up today and HVU is down ...hmm....

    ReplyDelete
  11. Replies
    1. will you be adding more today? thx

      Delete
    2. Hi SC,
      I think what we are trying to understand is if indeed Friday or Monday is the last push higher for SPX until the downtrend to mid-Sept begins, what is the bottom for UVXY so that those that wish to participate are comfortable to do so.
      For some of us, we are hesitant since we thought the 12's for UVXY was the bottom before the turn about 2 months ago and we are now in the 5's.
      Thus, some precise guidance for UVXY during this apparent bottoming would be appreciated. Thank you.

      Delete
    3. UVXY still holding around this $5.50 level. Remember the year high on this was $244.80.

      There are numerous red flags for SPX. It's not just the cycles. The warning signals are loud and clear. Charts are coming to show this.

      Delete
  12. SC, pick up more before 1pm looks like a beautiful bear wedge formation with a time count heading into a necktie on the SPY's...

    ReplyDelete
  13. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  14. SC you are right about the high of $244 but its been a gradual decline since 2011...BUT other than going from about $85 to $145 from OCT 11 to NOV 11 there has been NO significant rise to backup your claim that this can increase 10 fold in a few months.

    Please cite an example of UVXY or HVU where it increased 5 times or even 10 times it's current price in a few weeks or even months ??

    If you can this would give some validity to your projections instead of just throwing numbers out there.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Thanks

    Of course you mean for HVU ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, and TVIX which has the same structure. It rose over 7X.

      Delete
  16. SC, you know that markets have historically run UP on Democaratic election years to election day?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At this point my focus is on a negative cycle about to start and finish into mid-Sept.

      Delete
  17. guys, VIX is a product that measure fear...a hedge against uncertainty...at that time frame of Aug and Sept 2011 with that major bounce was due to Europe...as of now, everyone in the world knows Europe is in dead end situation, so no one is in fear of what may be next for it, worst cause bankrupt which everyone already know it may happen or may even have prepare for it to happen.

    Unless some new crisis happen aside from Europe, fear aint going higher anytime soon. May consolidate higher due to small drop from SPX, but it will keep on losing steam in the longer term unless for example another major event happen out of the left corner.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Unless some new crisis happen..."

      Maybe like this? http://planetforecaster.blogspot.com/2012/07/august-24-disaster.html

      Delete
    2. at this point, anything beside Europe is a posibility.

      Delete
  18. oh by the way, last presidential election year in US, isnt it Bush last term, hence he doesnt care about probing up the market...Obama want to get RE-ELECTED...doubt he will let the market drop much like all the doom suggested till he is safe and secure for his second and last term. He can drop the market after his election and save it to look good if he decide to do so. It a quick phone call to Ben.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. that's assuming markets can be atifiially propped AND maintained...and that may well be the case. Aside from speculation, Democratic President incumbent markets patterns historically run UP to election day.

      Delete
  19. Next major news ?

    Greece to Repay ECB 3.1 billion EU aug 20th

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. non event...weather they pay or not....ppl already expect the worst...if they pay great...if they dont, people already prepare the worst.

      Delete
  20. SC were are you part of that Aug 2011 to Sept 2011 rally in VIX ??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I was for part of it, though did not cover it on the site at that time.

      Delete
    2. I think the difference is that markets are facing a real bear market this time rather than a quick correction as in summer 2011. The VIX will spike much more this time overall imo, but the bear market will also take longer than a correction.

      Delete
  21. next week Ops-X...SC, do you think this negative cycle can be delayed?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Next week the cycle analysis looks negative early in the week with a positive spot late in the week. I think declines first, and may put in a lower high late in the week.

      Delete
  22. Going to exit half of my 75% poition...option ex will take toll on UVXY next week..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. $5 UVXY or lower is a strong possibility...

      Delete
  23. your cycles are always negative / positive for early part of week ... then negative / positive for late part of week.. betting on a couple days either way is not a system its crazy... let us know when you see a negative cycle for a week or two then we can position ... this every other day crap is useless

    ReplyDelete
  24. Overall, from early next week until late August is negative and that continues right into mid-Sept. So that is a month of negative.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Of course that does not mean each day is negative even though the overall trend is negative.

      Delete
  25. Seems like we're getting a gradual fall in UVXY

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If we are lucky, maybe this is the calm before the storm.

      Delete
    2. FWIW..filling the gap this morn..perfect short opportunity..stop reset 1407.50..GL

      Delete
  26. SC. how much more downside could we see in UVXY? thx

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Little to none. Even with the VIX down a touch today, UVXY still held the low from yesterday.
      Market looks exhausted.

      Delete
    2. VIX also near the same level as the July 2011 sell off...

      Delete
    3. SC
      Have you added to your uvxy position? If so are you at your full position? I added uvxy to my short positions with the gap fill this morn. Thanks GL

      Delete
    4. I have not yet, but plan to soon. I've been waiting for some confirmations, and it looks promising.

      Delete
  27. Holding uvxy is like being on death row.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. lol...thank you for the chuckle...

      Delete
    2. UK..wouldnt ever hold uvxy only..part of an overall position..that being said.. Im with SC when it moves will be impressive..IMHO..we are at the beginning of a major move lower..GL

      Delete
    3. Roger...a major move lower in uvxy) Call the coroner.

      Delete
    4. so far 50,200dma holding as resistance on the 5 min sp..also pennant pattern forming..Ill be lowering my stops if we hold for bit longer.
      need 10,20 to fail..again best of luck

      Delete
  28. Bought the rest of UVXY at $5.41 to hold full position.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tks for letting us know and good luck....

      Delete
    2. thanks SC
      Heres where im cautious concerning the vix..we whoosh down hit lower BB..then recover..all in few min or bit longer..if we do will add more uvxy..IMO will be huge tell..seen it before..agree with other poster would like to have seen vix hit lower BB.. not sure it happens..GL

      Delete
  29. They beat the crap out of uvxy and then maybe give back a double. This thing will never get past 12 again. Just admit when you are wrong SC.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Agree with SC cycles
    13th last hurraah for bull trend
    15th low
    16th pivot low & higher to a
    22nd lower high
    24th dip again
    31st lower high
    WILD SWINGS IN SPT
    Deeper low late October

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC is DEEP manure now. Ol' Jay agrees with the cycles analysis. Bears, cover your shorts NOW. You've been warned. You bears are in for a MONUMENTAL SHOCK next week.

      Delete
  31. SC,
    Now that you are fully positioned in UVXY.
    What are your plans in managing the trade?
    ie. Do you plan to hold on until your $28 target is reached or do you plan to trade in and out along the way?
    Can you inform us along the way?
    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      Right after you add your final batch at 5.41, UVXY went lower all the way into close. At this point nothing has been confirm a decline is starting, as well with spx still above 1400 level (Like I said yesterday, no fear at all in the market, so it pretty funny now seeing you putting your final batch purchase out of the left field). I thought you going to wait for a confirmation first before you add your final batch. Wondering what change your thought process, can you please let us know the real reason behind your final add?

      If monday we go higher, UVXY will see below 5$ easily at this rate.

      I remember way back, you mention UVXY will see the most gain during and near the final drop, why you adding now your final batch when no fear is even happening? dont you think adding TZA or something is better for gain in the beginning drop (if this drop is to even happen now)?

      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. even with yesterday night horrible china data, the market totally dive in the opening and end up higher than yesterday for a close. That looks like a pretty strong bull trend no matter how you look at it. To be in full position when no confirmation of a decline again.

      Delete
  32. Do we see 4's Monday? Suicide mission with this thing.

    ReplyDelete
  33. In my opinion S&P still have one more pop to go, may be to the 1415-1422 zone, but after that the expanded wedge reversal will show its magic and S&P should head back down from there, you can see the chart under my handler.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. there will always be one more pop to go...until we get a confirmation of decline, this market is dip buy...the confirmation of the decline right now looking at around 1350 level in my opinion. Anything above that is a dip buy and we go more pop.

      Delete
    2. I have 1340 as confirmation, but hey...close enough.

      Delete
    3. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  34. Really hope SC you are right on this one, as ZZ also saying a pullback this month. Now I am just scared that UVXY is following TVIX's path.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Let just say January of 2012 target of under 1000 has been push back to now and into September...Let hope he isnt stating here buying UVXY, but dont say hedging it with XIV lol.

      Delete
  35. SC will be right in my opinion, just a little bit early.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DB, you still holding your 7's?

      Delete
    2. well we all will be right at the unknown future...we can all say we are little bit early lol...but buying UVXY instead of TZA just doesnt make senses knowning we are early....since like SC mention before UVXY get the gain near the end of the drop lol.

      Delete
    3. No, alrealdy sold it as soon as I got a bit of profit. I don't buy & hold these toxic stuffs too long for now.

      Delete
    4. I rebought yesterday @5.49 but let go of it today @5.44 (5 cents loss, lol) once I saw the bullish signal on S&P.

      Delete
    5. By the way all my recent buys in UVXY are only as hedge for my long positions. UVXY is not considered as investment 'buy' for me YET in my plan, may be at 1415-22 I may consider it as an investment.

      Delete
  36. Guys,
    Let's ease up on SC. He is doing his best to share his trading strategy. It's up to us to use it just as a data point for consideration and then we act accordingly.
    If he is right and we went with it, great for everyone.
    If he is not right, then remember this the next time you use or do not use this cycle strategy as a data point for your future trades.
    We're all in this together.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Expect further downside on the VIX since it broke key support...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Before you say stupid things, perhaps you should clarify. Looks like it is about to test key support.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p19203447668&a=207356714&listNum=29/

      Delete
    2. The support was calculated from the 5/1/12 pivot low, the next support is 14.25.

      It seems you're too emotional for this business you should look into another profession.

      Delete
    3. Perhaps you should post as something other than "Unknown" instead of being an anonymous troll?

      Delete
  38. Well I for one am glad this week is over -- every gambler at least wants to feel an emotion; this tight range for 5 days straight BS is terrible.

    I am in 3/4 of my total expected UVXY purchase with 3 buys at 5.54, 5.54, 5.30 for an average of 5.46. I will look to add an additional purchase to complete my shares, but after I buy one more batch I will shift to where do I stop out mode (or hopefully where do I take profits) -- if you don't anticipate the potential for further declines with UVXY, you'll learn your lesson the hard way. I have.

    I am also in SDS at a price of 14.54. SDS printed 6 days straight in the red -- you have to go back to November 2011 to find a similar streak.

    SC I have one question for you. When you say "All In" and we print $4.75 next week, are you willing to add more?

    Cheers and thanks for this blog.

    -Bicky

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bicky,
      You should make your wise comments more often on this blog. I know I appreciate them.

      Delete
  39. Well, there's that glaring gap at 17.57, which will likely fill in the not too distant future. When it does, it'll be a good time to assess success, failure, or stomach issues, and decide to hold em or fold em.

    ReplyDelete
  40. What's funny about blogs are the number of psychics that come out to share their *visions*...nobody has ever known what tomorrow brings.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Well it looks like SC has a lot of questions from us tonight. Have a great weekend everyone!

    ReplyDelete
  42. Sure, no one is GOD, SC only pointed out 60% possible way~

    ReplyDelete
  43. Check out the weekly chart for UVXY.

    11 straight red weeks.

    A green candle on the weekly would be a decent start.

    ReplyDelete
  44. SC, when does the large negative cycle come into play? Some are saying we could make another move higher to the 1420 level on the SPX. Is this something you see happening. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  45. I think its still way too early to buy and hold UVXY...this market is going to trend down for next few days than launch up into the end of the month to around the 1420 level...

    ReplyDelete
  46. Last week was sideways according to plan. Momentum should run out soon. The next negative short term cycle is due to start.

    SCAugust 5, 2012 8:08 PM
    "I think most likely to see the high this week. This week is mixed so it could be relatively sideways and choppy as it tops. We'll see around the 13th. Momentum should be running out around that time. The second half of Aug looks weak."

    ReplyDelete
  47. The short term cycles are weak into late August, and the most negative one of 2012 hits mid-Sept.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC,
      Are you able to show in your UVXY chart where UVXY will move to what levels until mid-September so we have an idea of what to expect in terms of up moves and pull backs etc..? Tks in advance.

      Delete
    2. New charts are coming today.

      Delete
    3. I am looking for the start to the gradual rise phase for UVXY shortly.

      Delete
    4. I am long and strong with you, but this sideways chop phase, with a potential blow-off top, is REALLY going to pressure UVXY.

      I will be VERY surprised if this thing starts a slow gradual ascent.

      Case in point, this morning: A slow gradual trip to the 4s is beginning.

      Delete
    5. Many analyst are now calling for another move higher into next week. The next few days will be down to entic the bears to go short then there will be a move higher into the 1425 level...

      Delete
  48. I am suspecting VIX will behave same as last time, SnP is down half percent and still VIX is in negative!...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is no fear yet...like SC mention before, VIX will get the most gain near the end of the drop...if this is indeed the drop that we are looking at, it only the start right now...If it is not the drop, then VIX will be in worst shape than before...

      Delete
    2. Watch out for VIX when market return by end of the day...I am expecting VIX future to hit atleast 15.50 or around before any turn around

      Cheers

      Delete
  49. This drop is just to bring in some more bears before they rip this market higher to squeeze them out. Markets have one more pusher higher before it really starts to head lower...

    ReplyDelete
  50. Replies
    1. The Stars is aligning for one big pop of soup.

      Delete
  51. Hi SC, I would like to have your opinion on gold. I would like to know how long will last the anticipated upswing in gold prices ? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think Gold pops in a way that looks impressive only because it has been so quiet. Doubt it lasts for long.

      Delete
  52. Listen to the entire show...at least the last 5 minutes.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_60KdxISCA&feature=youtu.be

    ReplyDelete
  53. I have one last batch to buy HVU...NOt sure If I should add today or wait wait until tomorrow. SC do you at least 21 on HVU for next week ?? (based on your new charts)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Difficult to say at this point for next week. Pretty slow action at the moment.

      Delete
  54. hoping for HVU to get to your break even is just terrible, but I suppose with the VIX touching the lower BB support, its a decent GAMBLE here.

    I prefer to wait out short positions with HSD and watch HVU for a clear change in trend before jumping in, although that is very difficult as the headfakes are sure convincing.

    ReplyDelete
  55. At this point following this site and doing my own DD I'm in the hole by 50% since May...Time to change it up and GAMBLE a bit (not to say HVU isn't a gamble already. I'm thinking if I can bring my average down a bit today...and ride this out for next week to take chance. Otherwise the alternative is to sit and watch this deteriorate 10% everyday "hoping" for the Cycle to work

    ReplyDelete
  56. I'm going to pick up batch 2/3 at 4.50 and batch 3/3 at 4.00

    ReplyDelete
  57. SC, how much have you lost since your initial purchase in the 12's?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not much because I bought down to $8's, and sold in the $9's. Then bought in the $6's and sold in the $7's.

      Delete
    2. I would bet you've lost more than 50% since your 12 trade. Nobody can have a buy and hold mentality to *not miss the move*, them become nimble when damage control is needed. Truth will set you free, SC.

      Delete
    3. SC,
      For those of us that were not smart enough to bail in the 9's....what do you suggest we do at this point....
      sell now at a big loss and re-enter when UVXY truly does start to move higher? or how much longer do we hold on as UVXY deteriorates before we sell out?
      I guess the question is the pain is not letting up as UVXY deteriorates and we have no loss plan as Bicky stated earlier. thanks in advance.

      Delete
    4. I don't believe Afsha's thought to average down makes sense here since UVXY has not shown a consistent turn yet and Dr. Boom sees UVXY going down to 4's.

      Some disaster planning suggestions would be appreciated at this point for those of us sitting at 50% losses...

      Delete
    5. I bought last week and am holding. SPX is down though the VIX is also today. The negative SPX cycle may have started. We shall see.

      Delete
    6. Tks SC.
      1. Some new UVXY charts showing when and how UVXY will progress up and down until it reaches your target of $28 would be very helpful for us to determine our recovery strategy.

      2. I know there are no guarantees but how confident are you that UVXY will make a noticeable positive turnaround this week?

      Thanks in advance....

      Delete
    7. It's a waiting game. Markets look tired, but still hovering.

      Delete
    8. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  58. Short term target for UVXY is 4.97 to 5.0, longer term target is $4, in my opinion...chart is available under my handler.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DrBoom,
      Your UVXY chart does not show what you see happening after it reaches $4....can you add a future outlook of about a month or so to the chart? Tks in advance.

      Delete
    2. testy99, UVXY is a a very toxic 2X ETF...it should not be treated like an investment vehicle, you should not be holding it for a month unless it's a winning trade.

      Delete
    3. Tough to trade UVXY when SC says it's going to go up over the next few weeks and your saying it's going to go down in the short term. Both charts look plausible though.

      Delete
    4. It's already 4.98 today. Back then when it was 5.5 I projected it would be 5 when it broke below a sub-sideway trading range, I posted it in the chat forum but not on the blog. On the blog I only posted the bigger target at $4, and forgot to post the other smaller target.

      Delete
    5. I meant on my blog & forum. I may have posted the $5 target here, but I don't have good memory on this.

      Delete
    6. It may go to $4 then shoot up to $8.9/9.0, but right now it's still early to say...I need to see how S&P responds around 1420-2 level.

      Delete
    7. strange that VIX dropped so much when SPX was down just a bit. someone is manipulating something out there.

      great call on the fall to $5...wish i would have known and acted on it.

      I'll pay more attention to your blog in the future to learn and gain new insights on what is coming next for UVXY...thanks.

      Delete
    8. Testy, I admire your honesty here about your losses. Most won't admit *failures*. I've traded this succussfully for a long time, and decided on a long play at 6.20. I'm stuck as well. Hang in there, and don't watch every tick.
      No one knows what tomorrow brings, and you know how the market works...sell now, and uvxy will spike.

      Delete
    9. Unknown,
      Tks for the advice. Congratulations, 6.20 is a much better place to start at. That means if I get to break even, then you will do really well.
      Typically I don't watch every tick since i am usually patient with trades but this one has shown me that patience can be quite painful (I gave this one too wide a birth).
      I also crow sometimes when I do well on a trade :) although I hope the lessons from this UVXY trade do not leave too deep a scar.
      Good luck to you.

      Delete
    10. testy, if you leave your email I'll forward some ideas to better your knowledge and trades. It's only when I get lazy, like with this trade, does the market sting me.

      Delete
    11. Unknown,
      Very nice of you.

      I don't see how to send you a private email via this blog.
      How do I send you an email to you without the whole world sending me emails? :)

      Delete
    12. I don't think this site has PM; I don't want to leave mine for the same reason.
      SC, any way to solve this problem here?

      Delete
    13. If you like both email me at cyclicalanalyst@gmail.com

      Then can exchange emails.

      Delete
    14. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  59. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  60. SC< how much more downside could we get on UVXY?

    ReplyDelete
  61. guys, what does market goes red and VIX goes red tell you? then later market goes to ramp up and VIX goes new low tell you?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. InvestBB. If you do not know this then you should not trade UVXY, it relates front month and future month VIX. Since it rolls each day, the move of UVXY ties to 2 * (proportion of front month VIX % move + proportion of future month VIX % move). it relates to VIX, but not 100%. As far relationship to SP, at this stage, it is not. No fear here. I agree DoctorDoom's comment. It has to break to 4, then make all time come back. Please forget 28, it will be lucky to reach 9 ~ 10 this time.

      Delete
  62. SC, do you see 28 still? Zig Zag do not see 28 at all.

    ReplyDelete
  63. UVXY will reach 28 after a 10 for 1 reverse stock split followed by another 50% drop.

    ReplyDelete
  64. Unknown
    do you understand what contango is?

    ReplyDelete
  65. Ok guys/gals, this is starting to sound like Yahoo message boards...swing away.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Pretty we all waiting to see SC's update. Maybe he found something interesting.

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  66. I am just surprise he has not deleted my comments. Watch, I bet you he will delete these comments soon.

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  67. I agree, if his 28 target was originally called at 12, that's 2.33x return. Assume 4 bottom and same return...9.33 new target. He needs to update with realistic targets.

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  68. Where's da new charts...inquiring minds

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  69. Good morning
    does anyone see the head & shoulders on the VIX futures chart from Mar 22 low to now?
    Does this suggest that we have hit the low & will finally move up?

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  70. I see a VIX double bottom at 13.66 with 3/16 low. Past that we have to go back to sub 10 in 2007 time frame.

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  71. I looked at the short term and bigger picture for UVXY in detail. UVXY could still dribble down first, but the bottom is not too far below, and it'll pop to mid $6 afterwards in my view. So that is when I plan to take profit.

    Remember, in the bigger picture my pattern shows a gradual rise to start soon. In the scale of this bigger picture a gradual rise would be a trend up, but it will rattle up and down within this trend. So my plan is that I will trade within this trend as the price moves up and down within the trend.

    The detailed charts are coming to better explain.

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    1. i think what i am hearing is you expect a zig zag increase for UVXY and plan to trade in and out of the zig zag along the way. Your first profit target is mid 6's in the short term. I presume your charts will show the longer term trend for UVXY as well as it moves up the trend.
      Am I understanding this correctly? Tks in advance.

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  72. does anyone know what Sep VIX futures are trading at?
    Aug is now at 15.93 & has bottomed, moving up. If Sep is over 20 & we are now traking it, than there is still more room for Sep to drop down towards 16, further eroding UVXY to new lows before moving up to 6 or better

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    1. it's between $18 and $18.50 from what I can tell

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  73. Likely just a headfake for UVXY this morning. Doubt it has bottomed, but not much downside either. VIX acting much better so things are shaping up.

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    Replies
    1. Now I think you're trying to micromanage trades.

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  74. My guy is calling for swift, scary sell-off soon with sharp bounce back. Like most, this market has confused him, and he is generally bullish going into elections. If gut is all we have here, mine says this Democratic election cycle will be different because of the fiscal cliff, a minor skew to historical trends that never had such overhang.

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  75. history rarely repeats itself on an annual basis...last year we got a selloff around this time...this year the likelyhood of a selloff is slim to none...

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  76. Wow, SC, the roadmap changed now? Because before you were saying will hold until at least 14, now only in the 6s?

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    Replies
    1. No, my bigger picture is the same. However, the first phase of that bigger picture is a gradual rise. This is going to take time. So on a short term basis I think there will be some nice trades to be had as it bounces up and down.

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  77. This is what I posted yesterday and you can see how VIX rebounded from 15.50 level..

    StockboomAugust 13, 2012 8:12 AM
    Watch out for VIX when market return by end of the day...I am expecting VIX future to hit atleast 15.50 or around before any turn around

    Cheers

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  78. SC, if you don't think UVXY has bottomed yet why did you complete your position?

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    1. I bought it because of the negative short term cycles which are approaching in my analysis. I'm confident I'll turn a profit at that entry level. So even if it dips lower first, which it could, I'll look to unload in the mid $6 and take profit.

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    2. how much of your position will you sell in the mid 6's? will you recapture that if it heads back into the 5's? thx

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    3. All, then yes, will reload on a dip. I think there are 3 or 4 moves coming like this. So might as well make some gains while waiting for the bigger play to develop.

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    4. if uvxy starts rising gradually dont you think you may end up chasing it with this strategy?

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    5. No, because the scale of gradual trending rise that my big pattern shows could take weeks to play out.

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  79. SC,
    I think the publishing of your UVXY chart showing what your cycles see happening to UVXY over the next few weeks may answer a lot of readers questions. Of course, it will generate some questions as well. :)

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    1. Yes, working on those. Much easier to explain with a picture.

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  80. SC, curious about your cycle for tomorrow and the next day...negative/positive? thx

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    1. Negative tomorrow, but then turns positive late in the week. Early next week is negative again.

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  81. I think the rounded top has been put in today for S&P. I bought truckload of UVXY @5.35

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  82. It's going to be interesting tomorrow. UVXY around $5.85 could be possible. I might even look to book some profit in that case because late this week my cycle work does look a little more positive.

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    1. Nope, strongest selling Friday...close uvxy before weekend.

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    2. 7.57 gap fill before end of week will bring uvxy to mid 6's...if not a little more on volume spike.

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    3. I thought you mentioned several times you are not trading this one. You are looking to play the BIG move? Perhaps 28 by mid September, remember?

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    4. SC, it seems pretty risky to be trading in and out using your short term cycles...being this patient this long and then taking a huge risk like this seems odd...

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  83. SC, do you think UVXY could make new lows?

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