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Sunday, August 5, 2012

UVXY - Bottoming/Gradual Rise Soon

UVXY is in the late stage of the bottoming process.  Once the bottom is in place, then watch for a gradual rise to form as the next phase.  That should be underway this week.  It will start to rise slowly with the gradual rise, but as the yellow fork breaks, then the acceleration phase up begins.

The next significant high for UVXY is due in mid-September.  Starting this week, the SPX cycle analysis turns negative into the same time frame.        

60min Chart















Daily Chart

50 comments:

  1. wow your pushing your call out to mid september now ... your call for huge spike in July failed and now your passing on August and going right to mid September in hopes we get some volatility.. in the meantime all you people who loaded up on UVXY when SC said 28 was guaranteed in July are screwed.. sorry

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    1. Free market advice, Mick...you gets what you pay for. That said, SC redeemed himself nicely over the last couple of weeks with his call for 5/6 area. We're there, so maybe he's on track now. Mr. Market will let bears know this week.

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  2. I am saying the price starts to rise this week, and right into the end of August with continuation into Mid-Sept. That is over a month of steady uptrend coming for UVXY next.

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  3. Hi SC:

    What price are you hoping to pick UVXY up at?

    5.50 ?

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    1. In that area - best to fine tune the pricing in real time with all the data. I will probably buy in 3-4 blocks to build a position.

      I have big picture VIX charts coming also.

      Delete
    2. Are you looking to pick up 3-4 Monday, 3-4 on Monday/Tuesday, or 3-4 throughout the week?

      It's obviously best to fine tune in real time, but curious as to how much urgency you are currently feeling.

      Thanks for all of your thoughts/analysis.

      -Bicky

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    3. A number of cycles look positive into Aug 6th. So this may be a good spot to start building. I do want to have the position completely in place this week though not sure yet which day I'll be finished.

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  4. So you are going against Ziggy again? Ziggy is calling for an another high into September and you are calling for a crash.

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  5. I have a negative SPX cycle starting this week going right into mid-Sept. There is plenty of evidence backing up a weakening market as well such as the lower highs on the RUT. Crude off $20 since earlier in the year etc...

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  6. SC, some analysts are calling for a high into Aug 13th now...so down trend this week then up into Aug 13th...are you also seeing something like this?

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    1. I think most likely to see the high this week. This week is mixed so it could be relatively sideways and choppy as it tops. We'll see around the 13th. Momentum should be running out around that time. The second half of Aug looks weak.

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  7. SC, thank you for your work. I have a couple of questions for you. You said VIX would go by 60 on the previous report. Do you mean it comes this time or in long term?

    You also mention that the final target of UVXY is $40 this time, right? May I ask your time frame for that?

    Any possibility of UVXY split? If it goes $5s, it might split, I guess.

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    1. I have charts coming with very high VIX levels. The analysis suggests multiple legs down for the market, and high levels for VIX. I will look at each leg separately though.

      It is better to show the analysis at each phase. Right now UVXY is the bottoming phase and then the gradual rise. Once that occurs then will have more detailed charts coming with timing to certain targets. The main point on timing is to emphasize the period from this week until mid-Sept.

      It could split but would make no difference in my analysis.

      Delete
  8. SC, are you still at a 0 position in UVXY?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, but watching closely now.

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  9. when vix pierces lower bollinger band (15.10ish) we will be marking a top... its currently higher at 16.27... patience

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  10. We knew what happened the last gradual rise was suppose to happen....UVXY has only lost about 30% since that last call. Let me guess in some way this will be also positive ...because it is a higher high since 2001 !

    When will this political spin end

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  11. SC, did you start building the position today or still waiting?

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    Replies
    1. I'll probably start this morning.

      Delete
  12. Bought a 40% position in UVXY at $5.57.

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    1. Someone needs to say it...nice call on 5.50's, SC. Now let's hope for some follow through with a big market turn.

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    2. I had my bid in at $5.43 this morning, but missed by 3 cents lol.

      The market seems toppy here.

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    3. Sure SC has some nice calls, but he has too many bad ones to take him seriously. No consistency.

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    4. This is the business...no one can make consistent calls...it's about taking small loses when you know your wrong...

      Delete
  13. Bought 100% at 5.59$.... Dare Devil is my name!

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  14. Bought 2/3 position today...will buy 1/3 when market re-tests highs next week...

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  15. Added more. 65% position now.

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  16. your early guys...wait for vix to pierce its lower bollinger band at 15.10

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    1. I have the lower Bollingerband at 14.62??

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p67928378563

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    2. I did not check it from yesterday its moved lower..nice catch

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  17. We'll see how it goes. The VIX is currently slightly higher than July with SPX also higher than July. UVXY is creeping higher today with SPX from the open. Good signs, though yes, early.

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  18. VIX futures holding up very well. ZIGZAG has the high around Aug 9th, although he has been early a couple days or late a couple days before. Markets are feeling really toppy here.

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  19. SC, when are you thinking of completing your position?

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    Replies
    1. Just waiting and watching for now. Looking promising. The cycles this week look mild so there should be a decent spot to add later.

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  20. Bought HVu today at $15.58, sold it at $16 (I fear that might be early), bought HSD now for a pullback to 1370. Just don't trust HVU although VIX looking more and more springloaded.

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  21. Bot at $5.57. Still have sum @$9.15 dang it. But know will b ok.

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  22. SC, will you be exiting some of your posiiton and look for a better entry or just building on what you have?

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    1. Planning to hold at this point, but we shall see how things develop.

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    2. That's what I meant other day SC, you claim to go into position to hold until X numbers; today you started position at price you wanted and we are only couple of % gain and you even talk about dumping it! you are repeating same mistake you did last time...

      Please don't claim that you will hold position until target reached!....

      Cheers

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    3. i think that's his initial intention...you never can predict the market 100%

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  23. Well today was a good start...but he did sell at a loss last time...so being a smart investor he might sell if he recoups he's previous UVXY mistake....

    Either way we appreciate you posting your trades and keeping this board active...I'm still holding HVU at almost twice the price from today...so unless I go over weight at these levels, I just plan on holding for a miracle.

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  24. SC, when do you expect UVXY will hit the minimum target and maximu targets?

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    Replies
    1. Once the gradual rise phase is clearly underway then I plan to outline timing to certain targets.

      Generally the timing is for late Aug and also into mid-Sept.

      Delete
  25. SC,

    You are saying that your large cycle is due to turn down and thats why you are bearish. The problem is the timing of the beginning of this large cycle. It looks like the error is pretty big.

    Do you think your timing can be off by many months/year or even 2? You are already off by a few months, im thinking market will not let an easy short and we are in for a few months to a year of cat and mouse games.

    DYODD folks. Free advice will make you bankrupt.

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    Replies
    1. AM
      Im assuming there is always a chance it doesnt workout..may I say stop, stops and stops.

      GL all.. thanks for the input all

      Delete
  26. My strategy is straightforward. A large negative cycle is due for SPX, and I expect it to be severe. It is difficult to pinpoint the timing of a large cycle.

    That is why I am using the short term cycles to time the entry. The short term cycles have worked well for SPX. This cycle is starting to turn negative, and in my analysis it will be negative into late Aug, and then also into mid-Sept.

    So at this point it isn't really important if this is the start to the large cycle because my short term cycles are negative into mid-Sept anyways.

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  27. Thank you for your effort, SC. I really hope your expectation $28 for UVXY would be right but I have to tell you recent VIX option move. There were lots of aggressive VIX option buyers (like VIX 28) in August but now they sell August option and buy October and November, which means August might not be volatile as we expected and later October and November would be the chance for UVXY. Please check VIX option move!

    I thought I made limit order today, but some how it didn't work, so I missed the boat today. Any suggestions for me? Try at $5.7 tomorrow? or just buy at $6? In advance, thank you.

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    1. I think it'll move higher up into the $6's here today/tomorrow, but then settle back Fri/Mon possibly back under $6 again.

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  28. Unique ---ZZ
    ZZ is a analysis of genius
    thank you so much for the lower point what you said and wonderful view on Jun 4th and July 24th

    http://changeintrend.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/correlation-2012-07-24-at-10-00-09-am.png

    This music for you, hope you'll be like it
    thank you for your give

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yp8wKuW2gdY&feature=relmfu

    ReplyDelete